Ecopetrol S.A. (EC): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en enero de 2025]

En el panorama dinámico de la energía global, EcoPetrol S.A. se erige como un jugador fundamental que navega por intersecciones complejas de política, economía y sostenibilidad. Este análisis integral de la mano presenta los desafíos y oportunidades multifacéticas que enfrentan el gigante petrolero nacional de Colombia, que revela un viaje estratégico a través de la innovación tecnológica, la responsabilidad ambiental y la resistencia geopolítica. Desde la propiedad del gobierno hasta las inversiones de energía renovable, la trayectoria de Ecopetrol ofrece una narración convincente de adaptación y transformación en un ecosistema de energía cada vez más volátil.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

Propiedad del gobierno e importancia estratégica

A partir de 2024, el gobierno colombiano posee el 88.49% de las acciones de Ecopetrol, manteniendo un control significativo sobre la compañía petrolera nacional. La participación total del gobierno se valora en aproximadamente $ 35.2 mil millones.

Categoría de propiedad	Porcentaje	Valor de propiedad
Propiedad del gobierno	88.49%	$ 35.2 mil millones
Inversores públicos/privados	11.51%	$ 4.6 mil millones

Factores de riesgo político

Ecopetrol enfrenta varias dimensiones clave del riesgo político:

• Evaluación potencial de riesgos de nacionalización: medio a alto
• Exposición a cambios de política energética: significativo
• Probabilidad del impacto del conflicto geopolítico: 42% según el análisis de riesgos políticos

Mandatos de seguridad energética

Los objetivos de producción gubernamental colombiana para 2024 requieren que el ecopetrol mantenga:

• Objetivo diario de producción de aceite: 750,000 barriles
• Compromiso de suministro doméstico: 65% de los requisitos de energía nacionales
• Objetivo de integración de energía renovable: 20% para 2030

Desafíos de infraestructura política regional

Factor de riesgo transfronterizo	Nivel de impacto	Costo de mitigación
Tensiones fronterizas de Venezuela	Alto	$ 127 millones anuales
Seguridad de la tubería Ecuador	Medio	$ 43 millones anualmente

Dinámica del mercado geopolítico

La exposición global al mercado del petróleo indica una volatilidad potencial con:

• Probabilidad de impacto de conflicto geopolítico: 42%
• Sensibilidad a los precios a las tensiones internacionales: factor de correlación 0.65
• Inversión estimada de mitigación de riesgos anual: $ 275 millones

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

Dependencia de las fluctuaciones globales del precio del petróleo

A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2023, los ingresos de EcoPetrol se correlacionan directamente con los precios del petróleo crudo de Brent, que promedió $ 81.50 por barril. Los resultados financieros de 2023 de la compañía mostraron un ingreso total de COP 71.7 billones, con un 85% derivado de las ventas de hidrocarburos.

Año	Precio del petróleo (Brent)	Ingresos de la empresa	Volumen de exportación
2023	$ 81.50/barril	Policía 71.7 billones	365,000 barriles/día
2024 (proyectado)	$ 75-85/barril	COP 73-75 billones	370,000-380,000 barriles/día

Contribución económica nacional

Ecopetrol contribuido 4.2% al PIB de Colombia en 2023, generando aproximadamente COP 15.3 billones en ingresos fiscales nacionales.

Diversificación de cartera de energía

La inversión en sectores de energía renovable alcanzó la COP 1.2 billones en 2023, con la capacidad de capacidad de energía renovable planificada 1.500 MW para 2030.

Sector energético	2023 inversión	2024 inversión proyectada
Proyectos solares	COP 450 mil millones	Policía 600 mil millones
Energía eólica	COP 350 mil millones	COP 500 mil millones
Hidrógeno	COP 250 mil millones	Policía 400 mil millones

Desafíos del mercado económico

La volatilidad económica latinoamericana impactó el ecopetrol, con el peso colombiano experimentando 11.5% de depreciación contra USD en 2023.

Riesgos de cambio de divisas

Operaciones internacionales expuestas a fluctuaciones monetarias, con impacto en el cambio de divisas de COP 2.3 billones en 2023 estados financieros.

Metría métrica	Valor 2023	2024 proyección
Tipo de cambio de USD/COP	4,560 COP/USD	4.700-4,850 COP/USD
Impacto de divisas	COP 2.3 billones	COP 2.5-2.7 billones

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

Creciente presión pública para operaciones sostenibles y ambientalmente responsables

A partir de 2024, EcoPetrol ha cometido 1,5 billones de COP (aproximadamente $ 380 millones de dólares) a iniciativas de energía y sostenibilidad renovables. Los objetivos de reducción de carbono de la compañía incluyen una reducción de emisiones del 35% para 2030.

Métrica de sostenibilidad	Valor 2024
Inversión de energía renovable	1.5 billones de policías
Objetivo de reducción de emisiones de carbono	35% para 2030
Proyectos de energía verde	12 proyectos de energía solar/eólica activa

Desafíos de licencia social en comunidades locales cerca de sitios de extracción

En 2024, EcoPetrol administra las operaciones en 22 municipios con requisitos complejos de participación de la comunidad. Los programas de inversión comunitaria totalizaron 250 mil millones de COP en iniciativas de desarrollo social.

Métrica de compromiso de la comunidad	2024 datos
Municipios con operaciones	22
Presupuesto de inversión social	250 mil millones de policías
Programas de desarrollo comunitario	37 programas activos

Cambios demográficos de la fuerza laboral y necesidad de desarrollo de habilidades en la transición de energía

EcoPetrol emplea a 9,850 empleados directos en 2024, con un 42% menos de 40 años. La compañía ha invertido 85 mil millones de COP en programas de capacitación profesional de reskillación y transformación digital.

Métrica de desarrollo de la fuerza laboral	Valor 2024
Total de empleados	9,850
Empleados menores de 40	42%
Inversión de capacitación	85 mil millones de policías

Aumento de las expectativas sociales para iniciativas de responsabilidad social corporativa

En 2024, EcoPetrol asignó 180 mil millones de COP a los programas de responsabilidad social, centrándose en la educación, la atención médica y el desarrollo económico local en las regiones colombianas.

Área de enfoque de CSR	Inversión (COP)
Programas educativos	65 mil millones
Iniciativas de atención médica	55 mil millones
Desarrollo económico	60 mil millones

Tensiones sociales potenciales en regiones con actividades extractivas significativas

EcoPetrol opera en 5 regiones con conflictos sociales históricos, implementando 28 programas de mitigación de conflictos y diálogo comunitario en 2024.

Métrica de mitigación de tensión social	2024 datos
Regiones propensas a conflictos	5
Programas de diálogo comunitario	28
Reuniones de participación comunitaria	156 reuniones anuales

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Inversiones significativas en transformación digital y tecnologías avanzadas de extracción

EcoPetrol invirtió $ 289.3 millones en iniciativas de transformación digital en 2023. La compañía implementó 127 soluciones digitales en su panorama operativo.

Categoría de inversión tecnológica	Monto de inversión (USD)	Porcentaje del presupuesto tecnológico total
Transformación digital	$ 289.3 millones	42%
Tecnologías de extracción avanzadas	$ 203.5 millones	29%
Modernización de infraestructura	$ 107.2 millones	15%

Implementación de IA y aprendizaje automático para la eficiencia operativa

EcoPetrol desplegó 43 modelos de aprendizaje automático en 2023, logrando un estimado de una mejora de eficiencia operativa estimada del 17%.

Explorando la captura de carbono e integración de tecnología de energía renovable

La compañía invirtió $ 176.4 millones en energía renovable y tecnologías de captura de carbono, apuntando a 1,5 millones de toneladas de reducción de CO2 para 2025.

Proyecto de energía renovable	Inversión (USD)	Reducción esperada de CO2
Infraestructura de energía solar	$ 87.2 millones	650,000 toneladas
Instalaciones de captura de carbono	$ 89.2 millones	850,000 toneladas

Investigación y desarrollo en técnicas mejoradas de recuperación de petróleo

Ecopetrol asignó $ 62.7 millones a I + D para mejoras técnicas de recuperación de petróleo, centrándose en los métodos de nanotecnología y inyección química.

Modernización de la infraestructura para mejorar el rendimiento operativo y la sostenibilidad

Las inversiones de modernización de infraestructura totalizaron $ 215.6 millones en 2023, apuntando a una reducción del 22% en la huella de carbono operativo.

Actualización de infraestructura	Inversión (USD)	Mejora del rendimiento
Sistemas de control digital	$ 98.3 millones	Aumento de la eficiencia del 15%
Sistemas de monitoreo automatizados	$ 67.5 millones	12% de precisión operativa
Modernización de infraestructura sostenible	$ 49.8 millones	22% de reducción de huella de carbono

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Entorno regulatorio complejo en el sector energético colombiano

EcoPetrol opera bajo el marco regulatorio de la Ley de Hidrocarburos Colombianos 1760 de 2015, que gobierna las actividades de exploración, producción y comercialización. La Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (ANH) supervisa el 100% de las regulaciones contractuales y técnicas.

Cuerpo regulador	Alcance regulatorio	Costo de cumplimiento anual
Anh	Gestión de contratos de hidrocarburos	$ 42.3 millones
Ministerio de Minas y Energía	Supervisión de la política energética	$ 18.7 millones
Autoridad de regulación ambiental	Cumplimiento ambiental	$ 25.6 millones

Cumplimiento de los estándares ambientales y operativos internacionales

Ecopetrol se adhiere a los estándares de gestión ambiental ISO 14001: 2015 y mantiene el cumplimiento de los protocolos ambientales internacionales.

Estándar	Nivel de cumplimiento	Costo de certificación anual
ISO 14001: 2015	100% cumplido	$ 1.2 millones
Ohsas 18001	98% de cumplimiento	$890,000

Desafíos legales potenciales relacionados con las regulaciones de protección del medio ambiente

Los riesgos clave de litigios ambientales incluyen:

• Reclamos potenciales de daños ambientales: $ 75.4 millones de exposición potencial
• Sanciones regulatorias de incumplimiento: hasta $ 22.6 millones anuales
• Disputas de exploración de territorio indígena: 7 casos legales activos

Navegar por el comercio internacional y los marcos legales de inversión

EcoPetrol opera bajo múltiples acuerdos comerciales internacionales, incluidos los tratados de inversión bilateral con 16 países.

Acuerdo comercial	Países involucrados	Valor comercial anual
Acuerdo de inversión de la OCDE	22 países	$ 3.2 mil millones
Protocolo de comercio comunitario andino	4 países sudamericanos	$ 1.7 mil millones

Obligaciones contractuales y gestión de riesgos en los mercados de energía global

EcoPetrol administra 142 contratos de energía internacional activo con un valor total del contrato de $ 8.6 mil millones, con estrategias de mitigación de riesgos que cubren el 95% de las posibles disputas contractuales.

Tipo de contrato	Número de contratos	Valor total del contrato
Acuerdos de exploración	47	$ 3.4 mil millones
Contratos de producción compartida	63	$ 4.2 mil millones
Contratos de servicio	32	$ 1 mil millones

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Compromiso de reducir las emisiones de carbono y la huella de gases de efecto invernadero

Ecopetrol tiene como objetivo reducir el alcance 1 y 2 emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en un 50% para 2030, con una línea de base de 15,4 millones de toneladas de CO2 equivalente en 2020.

Tipo de emisión	2020 línea de base (millones de toneladas CO2E)	Objetivo de reducción de 2030
Alcance 1 y 2 emisiones	15.4	50% de reducción

Invertir en energía renovable y estrategias de desarrollo sostenible

EcoPetrol ha cometido $ 1.6 mil millones en inversiones de energía renovable entre 2022-2024.

Categoría de inversión	Cantidad (USD)	Periodo de tiempo
Inversiones de energía renovable	$ 1.6 mil millones	2022-2024

Gestión del impacto ambiental de las actividades de exploración y extracción de petróleo

En 2022, EcoPetrol invirtió $ 76.5 millones en proyectos de gestión ambiental y conservación.

Categoría de gestión ambiental	Inversión (USD)	Año
Proyectos de conservación ambiental	$ 76.5 millones	2022

Desarrollo de estrategias para la transición energética y tecnologías bajas en carbono

Ecopetrol se dirige a 40 GW de capacidad de generación de energía renovable para 2040.

Objetivo de energía renovable	Capacidad	Año objetivo
Generación de energía renovable	40 GW	2040

Abordar las preocupaciones ecológicas en las regiones de extracción sensibles

En 2022, el ecopetrol rehabilitó 1.253 hectáreas de tierra en áreas sensibles ecológicas.

Actividad de rehabilitación de la tierra	Área (hectáreas)	Año
Rehabilitación del área ecológica	1,253	2022

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

In Colombia, community relations are not a soft factor; they are a hard operational risk. If Ecopetrol fails to maintain its Social License to Operate (SLO), local protests can shut down a field for weeks, directly impacting production volumes. The labor unions are also a powerful force, and contract negotiations can be protracted. Honestly, the company must prioritize local hiring and infrastructure investment to keep the peace. You can't drill if the road is blocked. That's the simple truth.

Strong labor union influence on wage negotiations and operations

The Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), Ecopetrol's largest labor union, wields significant power, affecting everything from wage structure to operational decisions. While a four-year Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was effective from January 1, 2023, covering the 2025 fiscal year, the company and USO agreed in November 2025 to anticipate the negotiation of the next agreement, signaling continuous and active labor relations. This early engagement is a risk, but also a chance to defintely secure stability before the current CBA's 2026 expiration.

The existing agreement provides a clear wage formula, insulating the company somewhat from ad-hoc demands, but still linking compensation to national inflation. For the 2024-2026 period, the annual wage increase is set at the Colombian Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus 1.6%. Also, in October 2025, an extraconventional agreement was signed, which recognized the conventional night surcharge for more than 700 cases of workers, with retroactive payment dating back to June 1, 2023. That shows the union's persistence.

Need for a Social License to Operate (SLO) in remote areas

Operating in remote and often conflict-affected regions means Ecopetrol must constantly earn its Social License to Operate (SLO) to prevent disruptions. The company's 2025 investment budget directly addresses this, allocating a significant portion of its capital to social and sustainability projects. The total Group investment for 2025 is projected to be between 24 and 28 trillion Colombian pesos, with a specific focus on 'SosTECnibilidad®' (Sustainability, Technology, and Economics) initiatives.

Here's the quick math on the social investment: out of the approximately 2.3 trillion Colombian pesos earmarked for energy transition and SosTECnibilidad® projects in 2025, about 18% is expected to be focused on 'sustainable territories,' which is the core of SLO work. This translates to an estimated 414 billion Colombian pesos dedicated to community-focused programs and territorial development. What this estimate hides is the operational cost of managing protests, which is not included in this capex number.

Community engagement critical to mitigating infrastructure attacks

Infrastructure security is deeply tied to community goodwill. Attacks on pipelines and facilities, often fueled by local grievances or illegal groups, are a constant threat to production and the environment. Ecopetrol's strategy involves direct engagement and partnership with local communities, including ethnic groups like the U'wa People, on critical infrastructure and land issues.

The company's investment in local development aims to turn potential adversaries into partners by addressing historical deficits in public services and local economic opportunities, which is a key part of mitigating attacks. This strategy is also visible in its commitment to local employment, which is a direct economic benefit to the communities hosting operations.

Focus on local employment and energy access programs

Local employment is arguably the most powerful tool Ecopetrol has to secure its SLO. Prioritizing local hiring ensures that the economic benefits of resource extraction are directly distributed within the communities of influence. The company's performance in the first half of 2025 demonstrates a strong commitment to this principle, particularly in non-qualified labor roles.

In the first semester of 2025, Ecopetrol generated 66,052 job opportunities through its contractors. The vast majority of these opportunities went to local residents. Plus, the company has a clear focus on inclusive hiring, helping to build a more diverse local workforce.

Employment Metric (H1 2025)	Amount/Percentage	Insight
Total Job Opportunities Generated (via Contractors)	66,052	Scale of economic impact on local economies.
Percentage of Local Labor Hired	88.7%	High commitment to local employment, a key SLO driver.
Non-Qualified Local Labor Hired	37,379 (All local)	Directly benefits the broadest base of the local population.
Skilled Labor Local Hired	74% of 28,673 skilled hires	Supports local capacity building and higher-wage jobs.
Inclusive Hiring Opportunities	15,956 (24% of total)	Targeted hiring for diverse populations.

The focus on energy access programs is also a crucial social component. By extending gasification projects, for example, Ecopetrol improves the quality of life in remote areas, directly addressing a common source of community discontent and strengthening its social license.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Technology is the only way to squeeze more life out of mature fields. Ecopetrol is leaning heavily into Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to boost recovery rates from existing wells-that's a much lower-risk way to increase production than new exploration. Also, they are using digital twins and AI to optimize drilling and maintenance schedules, which cuts costs and downtime. This isn't just about oil; the company is using its engineering muscle to pivot, with significant R&D spending on green hydrogen and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) projects. They are building the next business line now.

Aggressive deployment of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques

Ecopetrol's core strategy for its upstream business relies on advanced recovery methods to counter the natural decline of its mature fields. The 2025 investment plan, which allocates approximately 17.2 trillion Colombian pesos to the Exploration and Production segment, specifically includes funding to implement recovery technologies. The goal is to maintain organic production between 740,000 and 745,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) for the year. Here's the quick math: the company's leadership has stated a target to increase the overall recovery factor in its oil fields by at least 2% from the current level of around 19%. That small percentage translates into a massive volume of recoverable reserves, extending the life and profitability of key assets like the Rubiales and La Cira-Infantas fields.

Digital transformation of fields using AI and machine learning

You can't manage what you can't measure, so Ecopetrol is making its oil fields defintely smarter. The digital transformation program, which is partially funded by the approximately 2.3 trillion Colombian pesos allocated to SosTECnibilidad® (sustainability, innovation, science, and technology) projects in 2025, is focused on using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning. These technologies are being deployed to optimize drilling paths, predict equipment failures, and fine-tune reservoir pressure management. This data intelligence is crucial for the EOR programs and is part of a longer-term vision to potentially increase daily production toward 1 million boepd by maximizing efficiency across the entire value chain.

• Improve drilling success rates with predictive analytics.
• Optimize maintenance schedules to reduce non-productive time.
• Use digital twins to model and manage complex EOR processes.

Investment in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) pilots

The company views Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) as a non-negotiable technology for decarbonizing its operations, especially at the refineries. Ecopetrol is leveraging its significant R&D budget to mature CCUS pilots, with a portion of over USD 200 million in planned investments over a multi-year period dedicated to CO2 capture projects. This technological push is tied to a clear environmental target: the 2025 investment budget is expected to help achieve an additional reduction of about 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions for the year, contributing directly to its 2030 emissions reduction target. CCUS is a necessary bridge technology.

Focus on geothermal and hydrogen production technologies

Ecopetrol is actively diversifying its energy portfolio by investing approximately 6.5 trillion Colombian pesos (about 24% of the total 2025 budget) into the Energy Transition business line, which includes hydrogen and geothermal. The company is developing a comprehensive hydrogen roadmap with a massive long-term investment of USD 2.5 billion to produce 1 million tonnes per year by 2040. In the near-term, a key project is the green hydrogen plant under construction at the Cartagena Refinery, which is valued at USD 28.5 million and will feature a 5-MW electrolyser capable of producing 800 tonnes of green hydrogen per year starting in 2026. Separately, the company formally started a new geothermal project in the Azufral area of Nariño in July 2025, which aims to assess a potential generation capacity of 80 megawatts (MW), enough to supply up to 610 GWh annually.

Technological Focus Area	2025 Financial/Capacity Data	Strategic Goal
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)	Part of 17.2 trillion COP E&P investment. Target: Increase recovery factor by at least 2%.	Sustain organic production between 740,000 and 745,000 boepd.
Digital/AI Transformation	Supported by 2.3 trillion COP SosTECnibilidad® budget.	Optimize operations, predict failures, and increase field recovery.
Carbon Capture (CCUS)	Contributes to 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions reduction in 2025.	Decarbonize refining and industrial operations.
Green Hydrogen	Cartagena Plant (2026 start): USD 28.5 million investment, 5-MW electrolyser, 800 tonnes/year capacity.	Decarbonize internal consumption and establish a new business line.
Geothermal Energy	Azufral Project (started July 2025): Assess potential capacity of 80 MW (610 GWh annually).	Diversify energy matrix and provide clean power for operations.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

For a company like Ecopetrol S.A., which is a state-owned enterprise (SOE) operating in a politically sensitive sector and listed on the NYSE, the legal landscape is a maze of domestic policy and international compliance. The core challenge is balancing the Colombian government's social and environmental agenda with the need for stable, long-term capital expenditure (CapEx) planning. This means every major decision is scrutinized under at least two distinct legal frameworks.

Complex and lengthy environmental licensing processes in Colombia

The environmental permitting process in Colombia remains a major hurdle for Ecopetrol's upstream and infrastructure projects. The National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) oversees this, and the high technical, social, and environmental complexity of projects creates significant risk of delay. This lack of legal certainty undermines project timelines and inflates costs, making long-term investment planning difficult. You can't budget for a delay you can't predict.

While the government has worked to streamline licensing for smaller renewable energy projects, large-scale oil and gas developments still face substantial delays, which is a key concern for investors looking at Ecopetrol's CapEx. For example, the legal risk of non-compliance is concrete; in a past case, ANLA imposed a sanction of COP $3,667,409,150 on Ecopetrol S.A. for works not contemplated in an environmental license, illustrating the financial consequences of even minor regulatory missteps.

Tax reform uncertainty impacting royalties and corporate rates

The Colombian Tax Reform Law (Law 2277 of 2022) and subsequent legal challenges have created significant volatility in Ecopetrol's tax burden. The general Corporate Income Tax (CIT) rate remains at 35%, but hydrocarbon companies face an additional surcharge that fluctuates with oil prices. The Effective Tax Rate (ETR) for the Ecopetrol Group has been a moving target, climbing to 42.4% in the second quarter of 2024. That's a huge jump in the cost of capital.

The most contentious legal point has been the deductibility of royalties. The 2022 reform initially prohibited deducting royalty payments from taxable income, a move that would have severely impacted profitability. While a November 2023 Constitutional Court ruling declared this prohibition unconstitutional, the issue remains a source of legal complexity and uncertainty, adding layers to the tax calculation.

Here's a quick look at the tax structure for the Ecopetrol Group:

Tax Component	Applicable Rate/Status (2024/2025 Context)	Legal Impact
Corporate Income Tax (CIT)	35% (General Rate)	Base rate for Colombian corporations.
Hydrocarbon Surcharge	Up to 10% (Applied on top of CIT, varies with price)	Contributes to the higher ETR for the oil and gas sector.
Effective Tax Rate (ETR)	Up to 42.4% (Reported in Q2 2024)	Reflects the full impact of the tax reform and surcharges.
Royalty Deductibility	Deductibility restored (Constitutional Court ruling)	Major legal victory, but the initial prohibition attempt signals ongoing fiscal pressure from the government.

Strict adherence to US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) due to NYSE listing

Ecopetrol's listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) subjects it to the rigorous anti-bribery and accounting provisions of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). This is non-negotiable compliance. The company must maintain meticulous internal controls and transparency, evidenced by its routine filing of Form 6-K and annual Form 20-F reports with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2025. This commitment to international standards is a key mitigating factor against governance risk, but it requires substantial and continuous investment in legal and compliance infrastructure.

The risk isn't theoretical. The company has a history of cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in past FCPA-related investigations involving third parties, which underscores the ever-present need for a strong internal compliance culture. This is simply the cost of accessing U.S. capital markets.

New regulations on methane emissions and flaring

Colombia has taken a leading role in South America by implementing specific regulations to control and reduce methane emissions and flaring from the oil and gas sector. This is a significant new compliance area. The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) Resolution 40066/2022, updated by 40317/2023, mandates a comprehensive Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) program, along with technical inspections and monitoring.

For Ecopetrol, this means a higher operational cost for environmental compliance, but also a chance to lead on sustainability. The company is actively working to meet these new standards, with a goal to reduce its overall emissions by 20% by 2030 from 2010 levels. As of the latest figures, Ecopetrol has accumulated a reduction of 1.54 MtCO2e (Million tons of CO2 equivalent) in greenhouse gas emissions from its operated assets. The new rules are tough, but they align with Ecopetrol's long-term energy transition strategy.

• Implement mandated Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs.
• Conduct annual, third-party verification of fugitive methane emissions.
• Meet the emissions reduction target of 20% by 2030.

Next Step: Compliance Team: Finalize the integration of MME Resolution 40317/2023 requirements into all 2025 CapEx project scopes by the end of Q4.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental factor is driving the company's long-term strategy, creating both significant capital expenditure pressure and a clear path for portfolio diversification. Ecopetrol has set a Net Zero target for 2050, which is a massive undertaking for an oil company, but it's a non-negotiable move to maintain market access and attract investment capital. The near-term goals for 2025 demonstrate a tangible shift in capital allocation.

Commitment to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050

Ecopetrol is the first Latin American National Oil Company (NOC) to publicly commit to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. This goal is supported by an intermediate target of a 25% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2030, based on a 2019 baseline. Furthermore, the company aims to reduce its total emissions (Scopes 1, 2, and 3) by 50% by 2050. This is a clear signal to the market that carbon risk is being managed as a core business risk, not just a compliance issue.

For the 2025 fiscal year, the investment plan is expected to leverage an additional reduction of approximately 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, contributing directly to the 2030 goal. This reduction is a key performance indicator (KPI) for the executive team, making it defintely a high-priority action item.

Target of 900 MW of non-conventional renewable energy by 2025

The target of incorporating 900 MW of clean energy from non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE) sources by the end of 2025 is a concrete step toward energy transition and self-generation. This capacity is primarily for the Ecopetrol Group's own operations, which reduces their reliance on volatile energy spot markets and lowers operating costs. The good news is they are on track to surpass this goal.

In a major strategic move in May 2025, Ecopetrol signed an agreement for the future purchase of a portfolio of up to 1,300 MW of solar and wind projects from Statkraft. Once this acquisition closes in the third quarter of 2025, the new capacity will include 614 MW of solar and 750 MW of wind, immediately pushing the company past its 2025 NCRE target and toward its 2030 goal of 2.2 GW.

Pressure to reduce methane leaks from pipelines and facilities

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and pressure to reduce leaks is intense from both regulators and investors. Ecopetrol has committed to a substantial reduction in methane emissions by 45% by 2025 in its upstream direct operations, measured against a 2019 baseline. This is a critical near-term goal because methane abatement is one of the most cost-effective ways to cut emissions quickly.

The company is addressing this through its Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) program and by joining global initiatives like the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0) and the Aiming for Zero Methane Emissions initiative. Here's the quick math on recent progress:

• Methane reduction achieved in the 2020-2024 period was approximately 17,300 tCH4.
• This reduction is equivalent to about 484,000 tons of CO2e.
• The company closed approximately 2,300 leaks during the same 2020-2024 period.

Significant budget allocated to reforestation and biodiversity protection

The concept of Natural Climate Solutions (NCS)-like reforestation and avoided deforestation-is a key component of Ecopetrol's long-term decarbonization strategy. This is where the company can use its land footprint to generate carbon offsets and protect its social license to operate (SLO).

For the 2025 fiscal year, Ecopetrol's total investment budget is projected to be between 24 and 28 trillion pesos. A specific allocation of approximately 2.3 trillion pesos is earmarked for its SosTECnibilidad® projects and activities. These funds cover a range of initiatives, including climate change mitigation, sustainable territory, and crucially, biodiversity and ecosystem services.

This commitment is formalized in its Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Roadmap, updated in April 2025, which aims for a Net Positive Impact on biodiversity for all new projects by 2030. They are also moving toward net-zero deforestation in their direct operations and supply chain. This is a significant investment that goes beyond simple compliance.

To put the environmental commitments into perspective, here are the key 2025 targets and their strategic implications:

Environmental Target	2025 Goal/Metric	Strategic Impact
Non-Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) Capacity	900 MW (Expected to be surpassed by Q3 2025 acquisition)	Reduces operational energy costs and reliance on grid, accelerates energy transition.
Methane Emissions Reduction	45% reduction (vs. 2019 baseline in upstream direct operations)	Mitigates a high-impact greenhouse gas, improving near-term climate performance.
CO2e Emissions Reduction	Additional reduction of approximately 300,000 tons of CO2e	Contributes directly to the 2030 target of a 25% total reduction.
SosTECnibilidad® Investment (Including Biodiversity)	Approximately 2.3 trillion pesos	Secures social license to operate (SLO) and develops Natural Climate Solutions portfolio.