Ecopetrol S.A. (CE): Análise de Pestle [Jan-2025 Atualizado]

No cenário dinâmico da energia global, o Ecopetrol S.A. se destaca como um jogador fundamental que navega por interseções complexas de política, economia e sustentabilidade. Essa análise abrangente de pestles revela os desafios e oportunidades multifacetadas enfrentando a gigante nacional de petróleo da Colômbia, revelando uma jornada estratégica por inovação tecnológica, responsabilidade ambiental e resiliência geopolítica. Da propriedade do governo aos investimentos em energia renovável, a trajetória da Ecopetrol oferece uma narrativa convincente de adaptação e transformação em um ecossistema de energia cada vez mais volátil.

Ecopetrol S.A. (CE) - Análise de pilão: fatores políticos

Propriedade do governo e importância estratégica

A partir de 2024, o governo colombiano possui 88,49% das ações da Ecopetrol, mantendo um controle significativo sobre a Companhia Nacional de Petróleo. A participação total do governo é avaliada em aproximadamente US $ 35,2 bilhões.

Categoria de propriedade	Percentagem	Valor de propriedade
Propriedade do governo	88.49%	US $ 35,2 bilhões
Investidores públicos/privados	11.51%	US $ 4,6 bilhões

Fatores de risco políticos

O ecopetrol enfrenta várias dimensões importantes de risco político:

• Avaliação potencial de risco de nacionalização: médio a alto
• Exposição a mudanças de política energética: significativo
• Impacto de conflito geopolítico Probabilidade: 42% de acordo com a análise de risco político

Mandatos de segurança energética

As metas de produção do governo colombiano para 2024 exigem que o Ecopetrol mantenha:

• Alvo diário de produção de petróleo: 750.000 barris
• Compromisso de fornecimento doméstico: 65% dos requisitos nacionais de energia
• Objetivo de integração de energia renovável: 20% até 2030

Desafios regionais de infraestrutura política

Fator de risco transfronteiriço	Nível de impacto	Custo de mitigação
Tensões na fronteira da Venezuela	Alto	US $ 127 milhões anualmente
Segurança do pipeline do Equador	Médio	US $ 43 milhões anualmente

Dinâmica do mercado geopolítico

A exposição global ao mercado de petróleo indica potencial volatilidade com:

• Conflito geopolítico Impacto Probabilidade: 42%
• Sensibilidade ao preço às tensões internacionais: 0,65 fator de correlação
• Investimento estimado de mitigação de risco anual: US $ 275 milhões

Ecopetrol S.A. (CE) - Análise de pilão: Fatores econômicos

Dependência das flutuações globais dos preços do petróleo

A partir do quarto trimestre de 2023, a receita da Ecopetrol se correlaciona diretamente com os preços do petróleo de Brent, que tiveram uma média de US $ 81,50 por barril. Os resultados financeiros de 2023 da Companhia mostraram uma receita total da COP 71,7 trilhão, com 85% derivados das vendas de hidrocarbonetos.

Ano	Preço do petróleo (Brent)	Receita da empresa	Volume de exportação
2023	$ 81,50/barril	COP 71,7 trilhão	365.000 barris/dia
2024 (projetado)	US $ 75-85/barril	COP 73-75 trilhão	370.000-380.000 barris/dia

Contribuição econômica nacional

Ecopetrol contribuiu 4.2% ao PIB da Colômbia em 2023, gerando aproximadamente 15,3 trilhões de receitas tributárias nacionais.

Diversificação do portfólio de energia

O investimento em setores de energia renovável atingiu a COP 1,2 trilhão em 2023, com a capacidade de energia renovável planejada direcionada 1.500 MW até 2030.

Setor de energia	2023 Investimento	2024 Investimento projetado
Projetos solares	COP 450 bilhões	COP 600 bilhões
Energia eólica	Policial 350 bilhões	Cop 500 bilhões
Hidrogênio	Policial 250 bilhões	COP 400 bilhões

Desafios do mercado econômico

A volatilidade econômica da América Latina afetou o ecopetrol, com peso colombiano experimentando 11,5% depreciação contra o USD em 2023.

Riscos de câmbio

Operações internacionais expostas a flutuações de moeda, com impacto cambial de 2,3 trilhões em 2023 demonstrações financeiras.

Métrica de moeda	2023 valor	2024 Projeção
Taxa de câmbio USD/COP	4.560 COP/USD	4.700-4.850 COP/USD
Impacto em câmbio	COP 2,3 trilhão	COP 2.5-2.7 Trilhão

Ecopetrol S.A. (CE) - Análise de pilão: Fatores sociais

Crescente pressão pública para operações sustentáveis ​​e ambientalmente responsáveis

Em 2024, a Ecopetrol cometeu 1,5 trilhão de COP (aproximadamente US $ 380 milhões) a iniciativas de energia e sustentabilidade renováveis. As metas de redução de carbono da empresa incluem redução de 35% de emissões até 2030.

Métrica de sustentabilidade	2024 Valor
Investimento de energia renovável	1,5 trilhão de policiais
Alvo de redução de emissões de carbono	35% até 2030
Projetos de energia verde	12 projetos solares/eólicos ativos

Desafios de licença social em comunidades locais próximas a sites de extração

Em 2024, o Ecopetrol gerencia operações em 22 municípios com requisitos complexos de envolvimento da comunidade. Os programas de investimento comunitário totalizaram 250 bilhões de COP em iniciativas de desenvolvimento social.

Métrica de engajamento da comunidade	2024 dados
Municípios com operações	22
Orçamento de investimento social	250 bilhões de policiais
Programas de desenvolvimento comunitário	37 programas ativos

Mudanças demográficas da força de trabalho e necessidade de desenvolvimento de habilidades na transição energética

A Ecopetrol emprega 9.850 funcionários diretos em 2024, com 42% com menos de 40 anos. A empresa investiu 85 bilhões de COP em programas profissionais de resgate e treinamento de transformação digital.

Métrica de desenvolvimento da força de trabalho	2024 Valor
Total de funcionários	9,850
Funcionários com menos de 40 anos	42%
Investimento de treinamento	85 bilhões de policiais

Aumentando as expectativas sociais para iniciativas de responsabilidade social corporativa

Em 2024, o Ecopetrol alocou 180 bilhões de COP para programas de responsabilidade social, com foco em educação, saúde e desenvolvimento econômico local nas regiões colombianas.

Área de foco na RSE	Investimento (COP)
Programas de educação	65 bilhões
Iniciativas de saúde	55 bilhões
Desenvolvimento econômico	60 bilhões

Potenciais tensões sociais em regiões com atividades extrativas significativas

O Ecopetrol opera em 5 regiões com conflitos sociais históricos, implementando 28 programas de mitigação de conflitos e diálogo comunitário em 2024.

Mitraca de mitigação de tensão social	2024 dados
Regiões propensas a conflitos	5
Programas de diálogo comunitário	28
Reuniões de engajamento da comunidade	156 reuniões anuais

Ecopetrol S.A. (CE) - Análise de pilão: Fatores tecnológicos

Investimentos significativos em transformação digital e tecnologias de extração avançada

A Ecopetrol investiu US $ 289,3 milhões em iniciativas de transformação digital em 2023. A Companhia implementou 127 soluções digitais em seu cenário operacional.

Categoria de investimento em tecnologia	Valor do investimento (USD)	Porcentagem do orçamento de tecnologia total
Transformação digital	US $ 289,3 milhões	42%
Tecnologias de extração avançada	US $ 203,5 milhões	29%
Modernização da infraestrutura	US $ 107,2 milhões	15%

Implementando IA e aprendizado de máquina para eficiência operacional

O ecopetrol implantou 43 modelos de aprendizado de máquina em 2023, alcançando uma melhoria estimada em eficiência operacional de 17%.

Explorando a captura de carbono e a integração de tecnologia de energia renovável

A empresa investiu US $ 176,4 milhões em tecnologias de energia renovável e de captura de carbono, visando 1,5 milhão de toneladas de redução de CO2 até 2025.

Projeto de energia renovável	Investimento (USD)	Redução esperada de CO2
Infraestrutura de energia solar	US $ 87,2 milhões	650.000 toneladas
Instalações de captura de carbono	US $ 89,2 milhões	850.000 toneladas

Pesquisa e desenvolvimento em técnicas aprimoradas de recuperação de petróleo

O ecopetrol alocou US $ 62,7 milhões para P&D para técnicas aprimoradas de recuperação de petróleo, concentrando -se em nanotecnologia e métodos de injeção química.

Modernização da infraestrutura para melhorar o desempenho operacional e a sustentabilidade

Os investimentos em modernização de infraestrutura totalizaram US $ 215,6 milhões em 2023, visando uma redução de 22% na pegada operacional de carbono.

Atualização de infraestrutura	Investimento (USD)	Melhoria de desempenho
Sistemas de controle digital	US $ 98,3 milhões	15% de aumento de eficiência
Sistemas de monitoramento automatizados	US $ 67,5 milhões	12% de precisão operacional
Retrofitamento de infraestrutura sustentável	US $ 49,8 milhões	22% de redução da pegada de carbono

Ecopetrol S.A. (CE) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Legais

Ambiente regulatório complexo no setor de energia colombiana

A ecopetrol opera sob a estrutura regulatória da Lei de Hidrocarbonetos Colombianos 1760 de 2015, que governa as atividades de exploração, produção e comercialização. A Agência Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ANH) supervisiona 100% dos regulamentos contratuais e técnicos.

Órgão regulatório	Escopo regulatório	Custo anual de conformidade
Anh	Gerenciamento de contratos de hidrocarboneto	US $ 42,3 milhões
Ministério das Minas e Energia	Supervisão da política energética	US $ 18,7 milhões
Autoridade de Regulação Ambiental	Conformidade ambiental	US $ 25,6 milhões

Conformidade com os padrões ambientais e operacionais internacionais

O Ecopetrol adere aos padrões de gestão ambiental da ISO 14001: 2015 e mantém a conformidade com os protocolos ambientais internacionais.

Padrão	Nível de conformidade	Custo de certificação anual
ISO 14001: 2015	100% compatível	US $ 1,2 milhão
OHSAS 18001	98% compatível	$890,000

Desafios legais potenciais relacionados aos regulamentos de proteção ambiental

Os principais riscos de litígios ambientais incluem:

• Potenciais reivindicações de danos ambientais: US $ 75,4 milhões em exposição potencial
• Penalidades regulatórias de não conformidade: até US $ 22,6 milhões anualmente
• Disputas de exploração de território indígenas: 7 casos legais ativos

Navegando estruturas legais de comércio internacional e investimento

A Ecopetrol opera sob vários acordos comerciais internacionais, incluindo tratados bilaterais de investimento com 16 países.

Acordo de Comércio	Países envolvidos	Valor comercial anual
Contrato de investimento da OCDE	22 países	US $ 3,2 bilhões
Protocolo de Comércio Comunitário Andino	4 países da América do Sul	US $ 1,7 bilhão

Obrigações contratuais e gerenciamento de riscos nos mercados globais de energia

O Ecopetrol gerencia 142 contratos ativos de energia internacional com o valor total do contrato de US $ 8,6 bilhões, com estratégias de mitigação de riscos cobrindo 95% de possíveis disputas contratuais.

Tipo de contrato	Número de contratos	Valor total do contrato
Acordos de exploração	47	US $ 3,4 bilhões
Contratos de compartilhamento de produção	63	US $ 4,2 bilhões
Contratos de serviço	32	US $ 1 bilhão

Ecopetrol S.A. (CE) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Ambientais

Compromisso em reduzir as emissões de carbono e a pegada de gases de efeito estufa

O Ecopetrol visa reduzir as emissões de gasto 1 e 2 em 50% até 2030, com uma linha de base de 15,4 milhões de toneladas de CO2 equivalente em 2020.

Tipo de emissão	2020 linha de base (milhão de toneladas de CO2E)	Alvo de redução de 2030
Escopo 1 e 2 Emissões	15.4	Redução de 50%

Investir em estratégias de energia renovável e de desenvolvimento sustentável

A Ecopetrol comprometeu US $ 1,6 bilhão em investimentos em energia renovável entre 2022-2024.

Categoria de investimento	Quantidade (USD)	Tempo de tempo
Investimentos de energia renovável	US $ 1,6 bilhão	2022-2024

Gerenciando o impacto ambiental das atividades de exploração e extração de petróleo

Em 2022, a Ecopetrol investiu US $ 76,5 milhões em projetos de gestão e conservação ambiental.

Categoria de gestão ambiental	Investimento (USD)	Ano
Projetos de conservação ambiental	US $ 76,5 milhões	2022

Desenvolvimento de estratégias para transição energética e tecnologias de baixo carbono

Ecopetrol alvos 40 GW de capacidade de geração de energia renovável até 2040.

Objetivo energético renovável	Capacidade	Ano -alvo
Geração de energia renovável	40 GW	2040

Abordar preocupações ecológicas em regiões de extração sensíveis

Em 2022, o ecopetrol reabilitou 1.253 hectares de terra em áreas sensíveis ecológicas.

Atividade de reabilitação da terra	Área (hectares)	Ano
Reabilitação da área ecológica	1,253	2022

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

In Colombia, community relations are not a soft factor; they are a hard operational risk. If Ecopetrol fails to maintain its Social License to Operate (SLO), local protests can shut down a field for weeks, directly impacting production volumes. The labor unions are also a powerful force, and contract negotiations can be protracted. Honestly, the company must prioritize local hiring and infrastructure investment to keep the peace. You can't drill if the road is blocked. That's the simple truth.

Strong labor union influence on wage negotiations and operations

The Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), Ecopetrol's largest labor union, wields significant power, affecting everything from wage structure to operational decisions. While a four-year Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was effective from January 1, 2023, covering the 2025 fiscal year, the company and USO agreed in November 2025 to anticipate the negotiation of the next agreement, signaling continuous and active labor relations. This early engagement is a risk, but also a chance to defintely secure stability before the current CBA's 2026 expiration.

The existing agreement provides a clear wage formula, insulating the company somewhat from ad-hoc demands, but still linking compensation to national inflation. For the 2024-2026 period, the annual wage increase is set at the Colombian Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus 1.6%. Also, in October 2025, an extraconventional agreement was signed, which recognized the conventional night surcharge for more than 700 cases of workers, with retroactive payment dating back to June 1, 2023. That shows the union's persistence.

Need for a Social License to Operate (SLO) in remote areas

Operating in remote and often conflict-affected regions means Ecopetrol must constantly earn its Social License to Operate (SLO) to prevent disruptions. The company's 2025 investment budget directly addresses this, allocating a significant portion of its capital to social and sustainability projects. The total Group investment for 2025 is projected to be between 24 and 28 trillion Colombian pesos, with a specific focus on 'SosTECnibilidad®' (Sustainability, Technology, and Economics) initiatives.

Here's the quick math on the social investment: out of the approximately 2.3 trillion Colombian pesos earmarked for energy transition and SosTECnibilidad® projects in 2025, about 18% is expected to be focused on 'sustainable territories,' which is the core of SLO work. This translates to an estimated 414 billion Colombian pesos dedicated to community-focused programs and territorial development. What this estimate hides is the operational cost of managing protests, which is not included in this capex number.

Community engagement critical to mitigating infrastructure attacks

Infrastructure security is deeply tied to community goodwill. Attacks on pipelines and facilities, often fueled by local grievances or illegal groups, are a constant threat to production and the environment. Ecopetrol's strategy involves direct engagement and partnership with local communities, including ethnic groups like the U'wa People, on critical infrastructure and land issues.

The company's investment in local development aims to turn potential adversaries into partners by addressing historical deficits in public services and local economic opportunities, which is a key part of mitigating attacks. This strategy is also visible in its commitment to local employment, which is a direct economic benefit to the communities hosting operations.

Focus on local employment and energy access programs

Local employment is arguably the most powerful tool Ecopetrol has to secure its SLO. Prioritizing local hiring ensures that the economic benefits of resource extraction are directly distributed within the communities of influence. The company's performance in the first half of 2025 demonstrates a strong commitment to this principle, particularly in non-qualified labor roles.

In the first semester of 2025, Ecopetrol generated 66,052 job opportunities through its contractors. The vast majority of these opportunities went to local residents. Plus, the company has a clear focus on inclusive hiring, helping to build a more diverse local workforce.

Employment Metric (H1 2025)	Amount/Percentage	Insight
Total Job Opportunities Generated (via Contractors)	66,052	Scale of economic impact on local economies.
Percentage of Local Labor Hired	88.7%	High commitment to local employment, a key SLO driver.
Non-Qualified Local Labor Hired	37,379 (All local)	Directly benefits the broadest base of the local population.
Skilled Labor Local Hired	74% of 28,673 skilled hires	Supports local capacity building and higher-wage jobs.
Inclusive Hiring Opportunities	15,956 (24% of total)	Targeted hiring for diverse populations.

The focus on energy access programs is also a crucial social component. By extending gasification projects, for example, Ecopetrol improves the quality of life in remote areas, directly addressing a common source of community discontent and strengthening its social license.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Technology is the only way to squeeze more life out of mature fields. Ecopetrol is leaning heavily into Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to boost recovery rates from existing wells-that's a much lower-risk way to increase production than new exploration. Also, they are using digital twins and AI to optimize drilling and maintenance schedules, which cuts costs and downtime. This isn't just about oil; the company is using its engineering muscle to pivot, with significant R&D spending on green hydrogen and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) projects. They are building the next business line now.

Aggressive deployment of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques

Ecopetrol's core strategy for its upstream business relies on advanced recovery methods to counter the natural decline of its mature fields. The 2025 investment plan, which allocates approximately 17.2 trillion Colombian pesos to the Exploration and Production segment, specifically includes funding to implement recovery technologies. The goal is to maintain organic production between 740,000 and 745,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) for the year. Here's the quick math: the company's leadership has stated a target to increase the overall recovery factor in its oil fields by at least 2% from the current level of around 19%. That small percentage translates into a massive volume of recoverable reserves, extending the life and profitability of key assets like the Rubiales and La Cira-Infantas fields.

Digital transformation of fields using AI and machine learning

You can't manage what you can't measure, so Ecopetrol is making its oil fields defintely smarter. The digital transformation program, which is partially funded by the approximately 2.3 trillion Colombian pesos allocated to SosTECnibilidad® (sustainability, innovation, science, and technology) projects in 2025, is focused on using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning. These technologies are being deployed to optimize drilling paths, predict equipment failures, and fine-tune reservoir pressure management. This data intelligence is crucial for the EOR programs and is part of a longer-term vision to potentially increase daily production toward 1 million boepd by maximizing efficiency across the entire value chain.

• Improve drilling success rates with predictive analytics.
• Optimize maintenance schedules to reduce non-productive time.
• Use digital twins to model and manage complex EOR processes.

Investment in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) pilots

The company views Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) as a non-negotiable technology for decarbonizing its operations, especially at the refineries. Ecopetrol is leveraging its significant R&D budget to mature CCUS pilots, with a portion of over USD 200 million in planned investments over a multi-year period dedicated to CO2 capture projects. This technological push is tied to a clear environmental target: the 2025 investment budget is expected to help achieve an additional reduction of about 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions for the year, contributing directly to its 2030 emissions reduction target. CCUS is a necessary bridge technology.

Focus on geothermal and hydrogen production technologies

Ecopetrol is actively diversifying its energy portfolio by investing approximately 6.5 trillion Colombian pesos (about 24% of the total 2025 budget) into the Energy Transition business line, which includes hydrogen and geothermal. The company is developing a comprehensive hydrogen roadmap with a massive long-term investment of USD 2.5 billion to produce 1 million tonnes per year by 2040. In the near-term, a key project is the green hydrogen plant under construction at the Cartagena Refinery, which is valued at USD 28.5 million and will feature a 5-MW electrolyser capable of producing 800 tonnes of green hydrogen per year starting in 2026. Separately, the company formally started a new geothermal project in the Azufral area of Nariño in July 2025, which aims to assess a potential generation capacity of 80 megawatts (MW), enough to supply up to 610 GWh annually.

Technological Focus Area	2025 Financial/Capacity Data	Strategic Goal
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)	Part of 17.2 trillion COP E&P investment. Target: Increase recovery factor by at least 2%.	Sustain organic production between 740,000 and 745,000 boepd.
Digital/AI Transformation	Supported by 2.3 trillion COP SosTECnibilidad® budget.	Optimize operations, predict failures, and increase field recovery.
Carbon Capture (CCUS)	Contributes to 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions reduction in 2025.	Decarbonize refining and industrial operations.
Green Hydrogen	Cartagena Plant (2026 start): USD 28.5 million investment, 5-MW electrolyser, 800 tonnes/year capacity.	Decarbonize internal consumption and establish a new business line.
Geothermal Energy	Azufral Project (started July 2025): Assess potential capacity of 80 MW (610 GWh annually).	Diversify energy matrix and provide clean power for operations.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

For a company like Ecopetrol S.A., which is a state-owned enterprise (SOE) operating in a politically sensitive sector and listed on the NYSE, the legal landscape is a maze of domestic policy and international compliance. The core challenge is balancing the Colombian government's social and environmental agenda with the need for stable, long-term capital expenditure (CapEx) planning. This means every major decision is scrutinized under at least two distinct legal frameworks.

Complex and lengthy environmental licensing processes in Colombia

The environmental permitting process in Colombia remains a major hurdle for Ecopetrol's upstream and infrastructure projects. The National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) oversees this, and the high technical, social, and environmental complexity of projects creates significant risk of delay. This lack of legal certainty undermines project timelines and inflates costs, making long-term investment planning difficult. You can't budget for a delay you can't predict.

While the government has worked to streamline licensing for smaller renewable energy projects, large-scale oil and gas developments still face substantial delays, which is a key concern for investors looking at Ecopetrol's CapEx. For example, the legal risk of non-compliance is concrete; in a past case, ANLA imposed a sanction of COP $3,667,409,150 on Ecopetrol S.A. for works not contemplated in an environmental license, illustrating the financial consequences of even minor regulatory missteps.

Tax reform uncertainty impacting royalties and corporate rates

The Colombian Tax Reform Law (Law 2277 of 2022) and subsequent legal challenges have created significant volatility in Ecopetrol's tax burden. The general Corporate Income Tax (CIT) rate remains at 35%, but hydrocarbon companies face an additional surcharge that fluctuates with oil prices. The Effective Tax Rate (ETR) for the Ecopetrol Group has been a moving target, climbing to 42.4% in the second quarter of 2024. That's a huge jump in the cost of capital.

The most contentious legal point has been the deductibility of royalties. The 2022 reform initially prohibited deducting royalty payments from taxable income, a move that would have severely impacted profitability. While a November 2023 Constitutional Court ruling declared this prohibition unconstitutional, the issue remains a source of legal complexity and uncertainty, adding layers to the tax calculation.

Here's a quick look at the tax structure for the Ecopetrol Group:

Tax Component	Applicable Rate/Status (2024/2025 Context)	Legal Impact
Corporate Income Tax (CIT)	35% (General Rate)	Base rate for Colombian corporations.
Hydrocarbon Surcharge	Up to 10% (Applied on top of CIT, varies with price)	Contributes to the higher ETR for the oil and gas sector.
Effective Tax Rate (ETR)	Up to 42.4% (Reported in Q2 2024)	Reflects the full impact of the tax reform and surcharges.
Royalty Deductibility	Deductibility restored (Constitutional Court ruling)	Major legal victory, but the initial prohibition attempt signals ongoing fiscal pressure from the government.

Strict adherence to US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) due to NYSE listing

Ecopetrol's listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) subjects it to the rigorous anti-bribery and accounting provisions of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). This is non-negotiable compliance. The company must maintain meticulous internal controls and transparency, evidenced by its routine filing of Form 6-K and annual Form 20-F reports with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2025. This commitment to international standards is a key mitigating factor against governance risk, but it requires substantial and continuous investment in legal and compliance infrastructure.

The risk isn't theoretical. The company has a history of cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in past FCPA-related investigations involving third parties, which underscores the ever-present need for a strong internal compliance culture. This is simply the cost of accessing U.S. capital markets.

New regulations on methane emissions and flaring

Colombia has taken a leading role in South America by implementing specific regulations to control and reduce methane emissions and flaring from the oil and gas sector. This is a significant new compliance area. The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) Resolution 40066/2022, updated by 40317/2023, mandates a comprehensive Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) program, along with technical inspections and monitoring.

For Ecopetrol, this means a higher operational cost for environmental compliance, but also a chance to lead on sustainability. The company is actively working to meet these new standards, with a goal to reduce its overall emissions by 20% by 2030 from 2010 levels. As of the latest figures, Ecopetrol has accumulated a reduction of 1.54 MtCO2e (Million tons of CO2 equivalent) in greenhouse gas emissions from its operated assets. The new rules are tough, but they align with Ecopetrol's long-term energy transition strategy.

• Implement mandated Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs.
• Conduct annual, third-party verification of fugitive methane emissions.
• Meet the emissions reduction target of 20% by 2030.

Next Step: Compliance Team: Finalize the integration of MME Resolution 40317/2023 requirements into all 2025 CapEx project scopes by the end of Q4.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental factor is driving the company's long-term strategy, creating both significant capital expenditure pressure and a clear path for portfolio diversification. Ecopetrol has set a Net Zero target for 2050, which is a massive undertaking for an oil company, but it's a non-negotiable move to maintain market access and attract investment capital. The near-term goals for 2025 demonstrate a tangible shift in capital allocation.

Commitment to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050

Ecopetrol is the first Latin American National Oil Company (NOC) to publicly commit to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. This goal is supported by an intermediate target of a 25% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2030, based on a 2019 baseline. Furthermore, the company aims to reduce its total emissions (Scopes 1, 2, and 3) by 50% by 2050. This is a clear signal to the market that carbon risk is being managed as a core business risk, not just a compliance issue.

For the 2025 fiscal year, the investment plan is expected to leverage an additional reduction of approximately 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, contributing directly to the 2030 goal. This reduction is a key performance indicator (KPI) for the executive team, making it defintely a high-priority action item.

Target of 900 MW of non-conventional renewable energy by 2025

The target of incorporating 900 MW of clean energy from non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE) sources by the end of 2025 is a concrete step toward energy transition and self-generation. This capacity is primarily for the Ecopetrol Group's own operations, which reduces their reliance on volatile energy spot markets and lowers operating costs. The good news is they are on track to surpass this goal.

In a major strategic move in May 2025, Ecopetrol signed an agreement for the future purchase of a portfolio of up to 1,300 MW of solar and wind projects from Statkraft. Once this acquisition closes in the third quarter of 2025, the new capacity will include 614 MW of solar and 750 MW of wind, immediately pushing the company past its 2025 NCRE target and toward its 2030 goal of 2.2 GW.

Pressure to reduce methane leaks from pipelines and facilities

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and pressure to reduce leaks is intense from both regulators and investors. Ecopetrol has committed to a substantial reduction in methane emissions by 45% by 2025 in its upstream direct operations, measured against a 2019 baseline. This is a critical near-term goal because methane abatement is one of the most cost-effective ways to cut emissions quickly.

The company is addressing this through its Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) program and by joining global initiatives like the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0) and the Aiming for Zero Methane Emissions initiative. Here's the quick math on recent progress:

• Methane reduction achieved in the 2020-2024 period was approximately 17,300 tCH4.
• This reduction is equivalent to about 484,000 tons of CO2e.
• The company closed approximately 2,300 leaks during the same 2020-2024 period.

Significant budget allocated to reforestation and biodiversity protection

The concept of Natural Climate Solutions (NCS)-like reforestation and avoided deforestation-is a key component of Ecopetrol's long-term decarbonization strategy. This is where the company can use its land footprint to generate carbon offsets and protect its social license to operate (SLO).

For the 2025 fiscal year, Ecopetrol's total investment budget is projected to be between 24 and 28 trillion pesos. A specific allocation of approximately 2.3 trillion pesos is earmarked for its SosTECnibilidad® projects and activities. These funds cover a range of initiatives, including climate change mitigation, sustainable territory, and crucially, biodiversity and ecosystem services.

This commitment is formalized in its Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Roadmap, updated in April 2025, which aims for a Net Positive Impact on biodiversity for all new projects by 2030. They are also moving toward net-zero deforestation in their direct operations and supply chain. This is a significant investment that goes beyond simple compliance.

To put the environmental commitments into perspective, here are the key 2025 targets and their strategic implications:

Environmental Target	2025 Goal/Metric	Strategic Impact
Non-Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) Capacity	900 MW (Expected to be surpassed by Q3 2025 acquisition)	Reduces operational energy costs and reliance on grid, accelerates energy transition.
Methane Emissions Reduction	45% reduction (vs. 2019 baseline in upstream direct operations)	Mitigates a high-impact greenhouse gas, improving near-term climate performance.
CO2e Emissions Reduction	Additional reduction of approximately 300,000 tons of CO2e	Contributes directly to the 2030 target of a 25% total reduction.
SosTECnibilidad® Investment (Including Biodiversity)	Approximately 2.3 trillion pesos	Secures social license to operate (SLO) and develops Natural Climate Solutions portfolio.