Ecopetrol S.A. (EC): Analyse du pilon [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le paysage dynamique de l'énergie mondiale, Ecopetrol S.A. est un joueur charnière naviguant des intersections complexes de politique, d'économie et de durabilité. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile les défis et les opportunités à multiples facettes auxquels le géant national de l'huile de Colombie est confronté, révélant un parcours stratégique à travers l'innovation technologique, la responsabilité environnementale et la résilience géopolitique. De la propriété du gouvernement aux investissements en énergie renouvelable, la trajectoire d'Ecopetrol offre un récit convaincant d'adaptation et de transformation dans un écosystème d'énergie de plus en plus volatile.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

Propriété du gouvernement et importance stratégique

En 2024, le gouvernement colombien détient 88,49% des actions d'Ecopetrol, en maintenant un contrôle significatif sur la National Oil Company. La participation totale du gouvernement est évaluée à environ 35,2 milliards de dollars.

Catégorie de propriété	Pourcentage	Valeur de propriété
Propriété du gouvernement	88.49%	35,2 milliards de dollars
Investisseurs publics / privés	11.51%	4,6 milliards de dollars

Facteurs de risque politiques

Ecopetrol fait face à plusieurs dimensions clés du risque politique:

• Évaluation potentielle des risques de nationalisation: moyen à élevé
• Exposition aux changements de politique énergétique: significatif
• Probabilité d'impact des conflits géopolitiques: 42% selon l'analyse des risques politiques

Mandats de sécurité énergétique

Les cibles de production du gouvernement colombien pour 2024 nécessitent l'écopetrol pour maintenir:

• Cible quotidienne de production de pétrole: 750 000 barils
• Engagement d'approvisionnement intérieur: 65% des exigences énergétiques nationales
• Objectif d'intégration des énergies renouvelables: 20% d'ici 2030

Défis régionaux d'infrastructure politique

Facteur de risque transfrontalier	Niveau d'impact	Coût d'atténuation
Tensions frontalières du Venezuela	Haut	127 millions de dollars par an
Sécurité du pipeline de l'Équateur	Moyen	43 millions de dollars par an

Dynamique du marché géopolitique

L'exposition mondiale sur le marché du pétrole indique une volatilité potentielle avec:

• Probabilité d'impact des conflits géopolitiques: 42%
• Sensibilité aux prix aux tensions internationales: 0,65 facteur de corrélation
• Investissement annuel d'atténuation des risques annuels: 275 millions de dollars

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

Dépendance à l'égard des fluctuations mondiales des prix du pétrole

Au quatrième trimestre 2023, les revenus d'Ecopetrol sont directement en corrélation avec les prix du pétrole brut de Brent, qui étaient en moyenne de 81,50 $ le baril. Les résultats financiers de 2023 de la société ont montré un chiffre d'affaires total de 71,7 billions de COP, avec 85% dérivé des ventes d'hydrocarbures.

Année	Prix ​​du pétrole (Brent)	Revenus de l'entreprise	Volume d'exportation
2023	81,50 $ / baril	Flic 71,7 billions	365 000 barils / jour
2024 (projeté)	75 à 85 $ / baril	Flic 73-75 billions	370 000 à 380 000 barils / jour

Contribution économique nationale

Ecopetrol a contribué 4.2% Au PIB de la Colombie en 2023, générant environ 15,3 billions de flics des recettes fiscales nationales.

Diversification du portefeuille d'énergie

L'investissement dans les secteurs des énergies renouvelables a atteint 1,2 billion de COP en 2023, avec un ciblage prévu en matière d'énergie renouvelable 1 500 MW d'ici 2030.

Secteur de l'énergie	2023 Investissement	2024 Investissement projeté
Projets solaires	Flic 450 milliards	COP 600 milliards
Énergie éolienne	Flic 350 milliards	Flic 500 milliards
Hydrogène	Flic 250 milliards	Flic 400 milliards

Défis du marché économique

La volatilité économique latino-américaine a eu un impact sur l'écopetrol, le peso colombien éprouve 11,5% d'amortissement contre l'USD en 2023.

Risques de change

Les opérations internationales exposées aux fluctuations de la monnaie, avec un impact de change du COP 2,3 billions dans les états financiers de 2023.

Métrique de la devise	Valeur 2023	2024 projection
Taux de change USD / COP	4 560 COP / USD	4 700-4,850 COP / USD
Impact de change	Flic 2,3 billions	Flic 2,5-2,7 billions

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Pression publique croissante pour les opérations durables et responsables de l'environnement

En 2024, Ecopetrol a engagé 1,5 billion de COP (environ 380 millions de dollars) à des initiatives d'énergie renouvelable et de durabilité. Les objectifs de réduction du carbone de l'entreprise comprennent une réduction des émissions de 35% d'ici 2030.

Métrique de la durabilité	Valeur 2024
Investissement d'énergie renouvelable	1,5 billion de flic
Cible de réduction des émissions de carbone	35% d'ici 2030
Projets d'énergie verte	12 projets solaires / éoliens actifs

Défis de licence sociale dans les communautés locales à proximité des sites d'extraction

En 2024, Ecopetrol gère les opérations dans 22 municipalités ayant des exigences complexes d'engagement communautaire. Les programmes d'investissement communautaire ont totalisé 250 milliards de flics dans les initiatives de développement social.

Métrique de l'engagement communautaire	2024 données
Municipalités avec opérations	22
Budget d'investissement social	250 milliards de flics
Programmes de développement communautaire	37 programmes actifs

Charges démographiques de la main-d'œuvre et besoin de développement des compétences en transition énergétique

Ecopetrol emploie 9 850 employés directs en 2024, avec 42% de moins de 40 ans. La société a investi 85 milliards de flics dans des programmes de formation professionnelle et de formation en transformation numérique.

Métrique de développement de la main-d'œuvre	Valeur 2024
Total des employés	9,850
Employés de moins de 40 ans	42%
Investissement en formation	85 milliards de flics

Augmentation des attentes sociales pour les initiatives de responsabilité sociale des entreprises

En 2024, Ecopetrol a alloué 180 milliards de COP aux programmes de responsabilité sociale, en se concentrant sur l'éducation, les soins de santé et le développement économique local dans les régions colombiennes.

Zone de mise au point RSE	Investissement (COP)
Programmes d'éducation	65 milliards
Initiatives de soins de santé	55 milliards
Développement économique	60 milliards

Tensions sociales potentielles dans les régions ayant des activités extractives importantes

Ecopetrol opère dans 5 régions avec des conflits sociaux historiques, mettant en œuvre 28 programmes d'atténuation des conflits et de dialogue communautaire en 2024.

Métrique d'atténuation de la tension sociale	2024 données
Régions sujettes aux conflits	5
Programmes de dialogue communautaire	28
Réunions d'engagement communautaire	156 réunions annuelles

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Investissements importants dans la transformation numérique et les technologies d'extraction avancées

Ecopetrol a investi 289,3 millions de dollars dans les initiatives de transformation numérique en 2023. La société a mis en œuvre 127 solutions numériques à travers son paysage opérationnel.

Catégorie d'investissement technologique	Montant d'investissement (USD)	Pourcentage du budget technologique total
Transformation numérique	289,3 millions de dollars	42%
Technologies d'extraction avancées	203,5 millions de dollars	29%
Modernisation des infrastructures	107,2 millions de dollars	15%

Implémentation de l'IA et de l'apprentissage automatique pour l'efficacité opérationnelle

Ecopetrol a déployé 43 modèles d'apprentissage automatique en 2023, réalisant une amélioration estimée de 17% de l'efficacité opérationnelle.

Exploration de la capture du carbone et de l'intégration des technologies des énergies renouvelables

La société a investi 176,4 millions de dollars dans les technologies de capture d'énergie renouvelable et de carbone, ciblant 1,5 million de tonnes de réduction de CO2 d'ici 2025.

Projet d'énergie renouvelable	Investissement (USD)	Réduction attendue du CO2
Infrastructure d'énergie solaire	87,2 millions de dollars	650 000 tonnes
Installations de capture de carbone	89,2 millions de dollars	850 000 tonnes

Recherche et développement dans des techniques de récupération d'huile améliorées

Ecopetrol a alloué 62,7 millions de dollars à la R&D pour des techniques de récupération d'huile améliorées, en se concentrant sur les méthodes de nanotechnologie et d'injection chimique.

Modernisation des infrastructures pour améliorer les performances opérationnelles et la durabilité

Les investissements de modernisation des infrastructures ont totalisé 215,6 millions de dollars en 2023, ciblant une réduction de 22% de l'empreinte carbone opérationnelle.

Mise à niveau des infrastructures	Investissement (USD)	Amélioration des performances
Systèmes de contrôle numérique	98,3 millions de dollars	Augmentation de l'efficacité de 15%
Systèmes de surveillance automatisés	67,5 millions de dollars	12% de précision opérationnelle
Modification des infrastructures durables	49,8 millions de dollars	22% de réduction de l'empreinte carbone

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Environnement réglementaire complexe dans le secteur de l'énergie colombien

Ecopetrol opère dans le cadre réglementaire de la loi colombienne sur les hydrocarbures 1760 de 2015, qui régit les activités d'exploration, de production et de commercialisation. L'Agence nationale d'hydrocarbures (ANH) supervise 100% des réglementations contractuelles et techniques.

Corps réglementaire	Portée réglementaire	Coût annuel de conformité
Anh	Gestion des contrats d'hydrocarbures	42,3 millions de dollars
Ministère des mines et de l'énergie	Surveillance de la politique énergétique	18,7 millions de dollars
Autorité de réglementation environnementale	Conformité environnementale	25,6 millions de dollars

Conformité aux normes internationales environnementales et opérationnelles

Ecopetrol adhère à l'ISO 14001: 2015 normes de gestion environnementale et maintient la conformité aux protocoles environnementaux internationaux.

Standard	Niveau de conformité	Coût de certification annuel
ISO 14001: 2015	100% conforme	1,2 million de dollars
OHSAS 18001	98% conforme	$890,000

Conteste juridique potentiel liée aux réglementations de protection de l'environnement

Les risques clés des litiges environnementaux comprennent:

• Réclamations potentielles sur les dommages environnementaux: 75,4 millions de dollars exposition potentielle
• Pénalités de non-conformité réglementaires: jusqu'à 22,6 millions de dollars par an
• Contests d'exploration du territoire autochtone: 7 affaires juridiques actives

Navigation des cadres juridiques du commerce international et des investissements

Ecopetrol opère dans plusieurs accords commerciaux internationaux, notamment des traités d'investissement bilatéraux avec 16 pays.

Accord commercial	Pays impliqués	Valeur commerciale annuelle
Accord d'investissement de l'OCDE	22 pays	3,2 milliards de dollars
Protocole commercial de la communauté andine	4 pays d'Amérique du Sud	1,7 milliard de dollars

Obligations contractuelles et gestion des risques sur les marchés mondiaux de l'énergie

Ecopetrol gère 142 contrats énergétiques internationaux actifs avec une valeur totale de contrat de 8,6 milliards de dollars, avec des stratégies d'atténuation des risques couvrant 95% des litiges contractuels potentiels.

Type de contrat	Nombre de contrats	Valeur totale du contrat
Accords d'exploration	47	3,4 milliards de dollars
Contrats de partage de la production	63	4,2 milliards de dollars
Contrats de service	32	1 milliard de dollars

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Engagement à réduire les émissions de carbone et l'empreinte des gaz à effet de serre

Ecopetrol vise à réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre des lunettes 1 et 2 de 50% d'ici 2030, avec une ligne de base de 15,4 millions de tonnes de CO2 équivalent en 2020.

Type d'émission	2020 BASELINE (million de tonnes CO2E)	2030 COMBITE DE RÉDUCTION
Émissions de la portée 1 et 2	15.4	Réduction de 50%

Investir dans des stratégies d'énergie renouvelable et de développement durable

Ecopetrol a engagé 1,6 milliard de dollars d'investissements en énergie renouvelable entre 2022-2024.

Catégorie d'investissement	Montant (USD)	Laps de temps
Investissements en énergie renouvelable	1,6 milliard de dollars	2022-2024

Gestion de l'impact environnemental des activités d'exploration et d'extraction pétrolière

En 2022, Ecopetrol a investi 76,5 millions de dollars dans des projets de gestion environnementale et de conservation.

Catégorie de gestion de l'environnement	Investissement (USD)	Année
Projets de conservation de l'environnement	76,5 millions de dollars	2022

Développement de stratégies de transition énergétique et de technologies à faible teneur en carbone

Ecopetrol cible 40 GW de capacité de production d'énergies renouvelables d'ici 2040.

Objectif d'énergie renouvelable	Capacité	Année cible
Production d'énergie renouvelable	40 GW	2040

Répondre aux préoccupations écologiques dans les régions d'extraction sensibles

En 2022, Ecopetrol a réhabilité 1 253 hectares de terres dans les zones sensibles écologiques.

Activité de réhabilitation des terres	Zone (hectares)	Année
Réhabilitation des zones écologiques	1,253	2022

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

In Colombia, community relations are not a soft factor; they are a hard operational risk. If Ecopetrol fails to maintain its Social License to Operate (SLO), local protests can shut down a field for weeks, directly impacting production volumes. The labor unions are also a powerful force, and contract negotiations can be protracted. Honestly, the company must prioritize local hiring and infrastructure investment to keep the peace. You can't drill if the road is blocked. That's the simple truth.

Strong labor union influence on wage negotiations and operations

The Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), Ecopetrol's largest labor union, wields significant power, affecting everything from wage structure to operational decisions. While a four-year Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was effective from January 1, 2023, covering the 2025 fiscal year, the company and USO agreed in November 2025 to anticipate the negotiation of the next agreement, signaling continuous and active labor relations. This early engagement is a risk, but also a chance to defintely secure stability before the current CBA's 2026 expiration.

The existing agreement provides a clear wage formula, insulating the company somewhat from ad-hoc demands, but still linking compensation to national inflation. For the 2024-2026 period, the annual wage increase is set at the Colombian Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus 1.6%. Also, in October 2025, an extraconventional agreement was signed, which recognized the conventional night surcharge for more than 700 cases of workers, with retroactive payment dating back to June 1, 2023. That shows the union's persistence.

Need for a Social License to Operate (SLO) in remote areas

Operating in remote and often conflict-affected regions means Ecopetrol must constantly earn its Social License to Operate (SLO) to prevent disruptions. The company's 2025 investment budget directly addresses this, allocating a significant portion of its capital to social and sustainability projects. The total Group investment for 2025 is projected to be between 24 and 28 trillion Colombian pesos, with a specific focus on 'SosTECnibilidad®' (Sustainability, Technology, and Economics) initiatives.

Here's the quick math on the social investment: out of the approximately 2.3 trillion Colombian pesos earmarked for energy transition and SosTECnibilidad® projects in 2025, about 18% is expected to be focused on 'sustainable territories,' which is the core of SLO work. This translates to an estimated 414 billion Colombian pesos dedicated to community-focused programs and territorial development. What this estimate hides is the operational cost of managing protests, which is not included in this capex number.

Community engagement critical to mitigating infrastructure attacks

Infrastructure security is deeply tied to community goodwill. Attacks on pipelines and facilities, often fueled by local grievances or illegal groups, are a constant threat to production and the environment. Ecopetrol's strategy involves direct engagement and partnership with local communities, including ethnic groups like the U'wa People, on critical infrastructure and land issues.

The company's investment in local development aims to turn potential adversaries into partners by addressing historical deficits in public services and local economic opportunities, which is a key part of mitigating attacks. This strategy is also visible in its commitment to local employment, which is a direct economic benefit to the communities hosting operations.

Focus on local employment and energy access programs

Local employment is arguably the most powerful tool Ecopetrol has to secure its SLO. Prioritizing local hiring ensures that the economic benefits of resource extraction are directly distributed within the communities of influence. The company's performance in the first half of 2025 demonstrates a strong commitment to this principle, particularly in non-qualified labor roles.

In the first semester of 2025, Ecopetrol generated 66,052 job opportunities through its contractors. The vast majority of these opportunities went to local residents. Plus, the company has a clear focus on inclusive hiring, helping to build a more diverse local workforce.

Employment Metric (H1 2025)	Amount/Percentage	Insight
Total Job Opportunities Generated (via Contractors)	66,052	Scale of economic impact on local economies.
Percentage of Local Labor Hired	88.7%	High commitment to local employment, a key SLO driver.
Non-Qualified Local Labor Hired	37,379 (All local)	Directly benefits the broadest base of the local population.
Skilled Labor Local Hired	74% of 28,673 skilled hires	Supports local capacity building and higher-wage jobs.
Inclusive Hiring Opportunities	15,956 (24% of total)	Targeted hiring for diverse populations.

The focus on energy access programs is also a crucial social component. By extending gasification projects, for example, Ecopetrol improves the quality of life in remote areas, directly addressing a common source of community discontent and strengthening its social license.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Technology is the only way to squeeze more life out of mature fields. Ecopetrol is leaning heavily into Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to boost recovery rates from existing wells-that's a much lower-risk way to increase production than new exploration. Also, they are using digital twins and AI to optimize drilling and maintenance schedules, which cuts costs and downtime. This isn't just about oil; the company is using its engineering muscle to pivot, with significant R&D spending on green hydrogen and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) projects. They are building the next business line now.

Aggressive deployment of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques

Ecopetrol's core strategy for its upstream business relies on advanced recovery methods to counter the natural decline of its mature fields. The 2025 investment plan, which allocates approximately 17.2 trillion Colombian pesos to the Exploration and Production segment, specifically includes funding to implement recovery technologies. The goal is to maintain organic production between 740,000 and 745,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) for the year. Here's the quick math: the company's leadership has stated a target to increase the overall recovery factor in its oil fields by at least 2% from the current level of around 19%. That small percentage translates into a massive volume of recoverable reserves, extending the life and profitability of key assets like the Rubiales and La Cira-Infantas fields.

Digital transformation of fields using AI and machine learning

You can't manage what you can't measure, so Ecopetrol is making its oil fields defintely smarter. The digital transformation program, which is partially funded by the approximately 2.3 trillion Colombian pesos allocated to SosTECnibilidad® (sustainability, innovation, science, and technology) projects in 2025, is focused on using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning. These technologies are being deployed to optimize drilling paths, predict equipment failures, and fine-tune reservoir pressure management. This data intelligence is crucial for the EOR programs and is part of a longer-term vision to potentially increase daily production toward 1 million boepd by maximizing efficiency across the entire value chain.

• Improve drilling success rates with predictive analytics.
• Optimize maintenance schedules to reduce non-productive time.
• Use digital twins to model and manage complex EOR processes.

Investment in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) pilots

The company views Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) as a non-negotiable technology for decarbonizing its operations, especially at the refineries. Ecopetrol is leveraging its significant R&D budget to mature CCUS pilots, with a portion of over USD 200 million in planned investments over a multi-year period dedicated to CO2 capture projects. This technological push is tied to a clear environmental target: the 2025 investment budget is expected to help achieve an additional reduction of about 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions for the year, contributing directly to its 2030 emissions reduction target. CCUS is a necessary bridge technology.

Focus on geothermal and hydrogen production technologies

Ecopetrol is actively diversifying its energy portfolio by investing approximately 6.5 trillion Colombian pesos (about 24% of the total 2025 budget) into the Energy Transition business line, which includes hydrogen and geothermal. The company is developing a comprehensive hydrogen roadmap with a massive long-term investment of USD 2.5 billion to produce 1 million tonnes per year by 2040. In the near-term, a key project is the green hydrogen plant under construction at the Cartagena Refinery, which is valued at USD 28.5 million and will feature a 5-MW electrolyser capable of producing 800 tonnes of green hydrogen per year starting in 2026. Separately, the company formally started a new geothermal project in the Azufral area of Nariño in July 2025, which aims to assess a potential generation capacity of 80 megawatts (MW), enough to supply up to 610 GWh annually.

Technological Focus Area	2025 Financial/Capacity Data	Strategic Goal
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)	Part of 17.2 trillion COP E&P investment. Target: Increase recovery factor by at least 2%.	Sustain organic production between 740,000 and 745,000 boepd.
Digital/AI Transformation	Supported by 2.3 trillion COP SosTECnibilidad® budget.	Optimize operations, predict failures, and increase field recovery.
Carbon Capture (CCUS)	Contributes to 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions reduction in 2025.	Decarbonize refining and industrial operations.
Green Hydrogen	Cartagena Plant (2026 start): USD 28.5 million investment, 5-MW electrolyser, 800 tonnes/year capacity.	Decarbonize internal consumption and establish a new business line.
Geothermal Energy	Azufral Project (started July 2025): Assess potential capacity of 80 MW (610 GWh annually).	Diversify energy matrix and provide clean power for operations.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

For a company like Ecopetrol S.A., which is a state-owned enterprise (SOE) operating in a politically sensitive sector and listed on the NYSE, the legal landscape is a maze of domestic policy and international compliance. The core challenge is balancing the Colombian government's social and environmental agenda with the need for stable, long-term capital expenditure (CapEx) planning. This means every major decision is scrutinized under at least two distinct legal frameworks.

Complex and lengthy environmental licensing processes in Colombia

The environmental permitting process in Colombia remains a major hurdle for Ecopetrol's upstream and infrastructure projects. The National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) oversees this, and the high technical, social, and environmental complexity of projects creates significant risk of delay. This lack of legal certainty undermines project timelines and inflates costs, making long-term investment planning difficult. You can't budget for a delay you can't predict.

While the government has worked to streamline licensing for smaller renewable energy projects, large-scale oil and gas developments still face substantial delays, which is a key concern for investors looking at Ecopetrol's CapEx. For example, the legal risk of non-compliance is concrete; in a past case, ANLA imposed a sanction of COP $3,667,409,150 on Ecopetrol S.A. for works not contemplated in an environmental license, illustrating the financial consequences of even minor regulatory missteps.

Tax reform uncertainty impacting royalties and corporate rates

The Colombian Tax Reform Law (Law 2277 of 2022) and subsequent legal challenges have created significant volatility in Ecopetrol's tax burden. The general Corporate Income Tax (CIT) rate remains at 35%, but hydrocarbon companies face an additional surcharge that fluctuates with oil prices. The Effective Tax Rate (ETR) for the Ecopetrol Group has been a moving target, climbing to 42.4% in the second quarter of 2024. That's a huge jump in the cost of capital.

The most contentious legal point has been the deductibility of royalties. The 2022 reform initially prohibited deducting royalty payments from taxable income, a move that would have severely impacted profitability. While a November 2023 Constitutional Court ruling declared this prohibition unconstitutional, the issue remains a source of legal complexity and uncertainty, adding layers to the tax calculation.

Here's a quick look at the tax structure for the Ecopetrol Group:

Tax Component	Applicable Rate/Status (2024/2025 Context)	Legal Impact
Corporate Income Tax (CIT)	35% (General Rate)	Base rate for Colombian corporations.
Hydrocarbon Surcharge	Up to 10% (Applied on top of CIT, varies with price)	Contributes to the higher ETR for the oil and gas sector.
Effective Tax Rate (ETR)	Up to 42.4% (Reported in Q2 2024)	Reflects the full impact of the tax reform and surcharges.
Royalty Deductibility	Deductibility restored (Constitutional Court ruling)	Major legal victory, but the initial prohibition attempt signals ongoing fiscal pressure from the government.

Strict adherence to US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) due to NYSE listing

Ecopetrol's listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) subjects it to the rigorous anti-bribery and accounting provisions of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). This is non-negotiable compliance. The company must maintain meticulous internal controls and transparency, evidenced by its routine filing of Form 6-K and annual Form 20-F reports with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2025. This commitment to international standards is a key mitigating factor against governance risk, but it requires substantial and continuous investment in legal and compliance infrastructure.

The risk isn't theoretical. The company has a history of cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in past FCPA-related investigations involving third parties, which underscores the ever-present need for a strong internal compliance culture. This is simply the cost of accessing U.S. capital markets.

New regulations on methane emissions and flaring

Colombia has taken a leading role in South America by implementing specific regulations to control and reduce methane emissions and flaring from the oil and gas sector. This is a significant new compliance area. The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) Resolution 40066/2022, updated by 40317/2023, mandates a comprehensive Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) program, along with technical inspections and monitoring.

For Ecopetrol, this means a higher operational cost for environmental compliance, but also a chance to lead on sustainability. The company is actively working to meet these new standards, with a goal to reduce its overall emissions by 20% by 2030 from 2010 levels. As of the latest figures, Ecopetrol has accumulated a reduction of 1.54 MtCO2e (Million tons of CO2 equivalent) in greenhouse gas emissions from its operated assets. The new rules are tough, but they align with Ecopetrol's long-term energy transition strategy.

• Implement mandated Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs.
• Conduct annual, third-party verification of fugitive methane emissions.
• Meet the emissions reduction target of 20% by 2030.

Next Step: Compliance Team: Finalize the integration of MME Resolution 40317/2023 requirements into all 2025 CapEx project scopes by the end of Q4.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental factor is driving the company's long-term strategy, creating both significant capital expenditure pressure and a clear path for portfolio diversification. Ecopetrol has set a Net Zero target for 2050, which is a massive undertaking for an oil company, but it's a non-negotiable move to maintain market access and attract investment capital. The near-term goals for 2025 demonstrate a tangible shift in capital allocation.

Commitment to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050

Ecopetrol is the first Latin American National Oil Company (NOC) to publicly commit to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. This goal is supported by an intermediate target of a 25% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2030, based on a 2019 baseline. Furthermore, the company aims to reduce its total emissions (Scopes 1, 2, and 3) by 50% by 2050. This is a clear signal to the market that carbon risk is being managed as a core business risk, not just a compliance issue.

For the 2025 fiscal year, the investment plan is expected to leverage an additional reduction of approximately 300,000 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, contributing directly to the 2030 goal. This reduction is a key performance indicator (KPI) for the executive team, making it defintely a high-priority action item.

Target of 900 MW of non-conventional renewable energy by 2025

The target of incorporating 900 MW of clean energy from non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE) sources by the end of 2025 is a concrete step toward energy transition and self-generation. This capacity is primarily for the Ecopetrol Group's own operations, which reduces their reliance on volatile energy spot markets and lowers operating costs. The good news is they are on track to surpass this goal.

In a major strategic move in May 2025, Ecopetrol signed an agreement for the future purchase of a portfolio of up to 1,300 MW of solar and wind projects from Statkraft. Once this acquisition closes in the third quarter of 2025, the new capacity will include 614 MW of solar and 750 MW of wind, immediately pushing the company past its 2025 NCRE target and toward its 2030 goal of 2.2 GW.

Pressure to reduce methane leaks from pipelines and facilities

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and pressure to reduce leaks is intense from both regulators and investors. Ecopetrol has committed to a substantial reduction in methane emissions by 45% by 2025 in its upstream direct operations, measured against a 2019 baseline. This is a critical near-term goal because methane abatement is one of the most cost-effective ways to cut emissions quickly.

The company is addressing this through its Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) program and by joining global initiatives like the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0) and the Aiming for Zero Methane Emissions initiative. Here's the quick math on recent progress:

• Methane reduction achieved in the 2020-2024 period was approximately 17,300 tCH4.
• This reduction is equivalent to about 484,000 tons of CO2e.
• The company closed approximately 2,300 leaks during the same 2020-2024 period.

Significant budget allocated to reforestation and biodiversity protection

The concept of Natural Climate Solutions (NCS)-like reforestation and avoided deforestation-is a key component of Ecopetrol's long-term decarbonization strategy. This is where the company can use its land footprint to generate carbon offsets and protect its social license to operate (SLO).

For the 2025 fiscal year, Ecopetrol's total investment budget is projected to be between 24 and 28 trillion pesos. A specific allocation of approximately 2.3 trillion pesos is earmarked for its SosTECnibilidad® projects and activities. These funds cover a range of initiatives, including climate change mitigation, sustainable territory, and crucially, biodiversity and ecosystem services.

This commitment is formalized in its Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Roadmap, updated in April 2025, which aims for a Net Positive Impact on biodiversity for all new projects by 2030. They are also moving toward net-zero deforestation in their direct operations and supply chain. This is a significant investment that goes beyond simple compliance.

To put the environmental commitments into perspective, here are the key 2025 targets and their strategic implications:

Environmental Target	2025 Goal/Metric	Strategic Impact
Non-Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) Capacity	900 MW (Expected to be surpassed by Q3 2025 acquisition)	Reduces operational energy costs and reliance on grid, accelerates energy transition.
Methane Emissions Reduction	45% reduction (vs. 2019 baseline in upstream direct operations)	Mitigates a high-impact greenhouse gas, improving near-term climate performance.
CO2e Emissions Reduction	Additional reduction of approximately 300,000 tons of CO2e	Contributes directly to the 2030 target of a 25% total reduction.
SosTECnibilidad® Investment (Including Biodiversity)	Approximately 2.3 trillion pesos	Secures social license to operate (SLO) and develops Natural Climate Solutions portfolio.