NiSource Inc. (NI): Análisis FODA [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

En el panorama dinámico de los servicios de servicios públicos, Nisource Inc. (NI) se encuentra en una coyuntura crítica, equilibrando la distribución de energía tradicional con un pivote estratégico hacia la infraestructura sostenible. Este análisis FODA integral revela el intrincado posicionamiento de la compañía en el Medio Oeste y el noreste de los Estados Unidos, explorando sus fortalezas robustas, navegando por posibles debilidades y trazando un curso a través de oportunidades emergentes y amenazas desafiantes del mercado. Ponte en un examen detallado de cómo Nisource está transformando su estrategia operativa en una era de transición energética sin precedentes.

Nisource Inc. (NI) - Análisis FODA: fortalezas

Operaciones de servicios públicos diversificados

Nisource opera en 6 estados en el Medio Oeste y el Noreste, incluidos Indiana, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pensilvania, Kentucky y Maryland. La compañía atiende a aproximadamente 3.2 millones de clientes de gas natural y 500,000 clientes eléctricos.

Modelo de negocio de utilidad regulado

El modelo de negocio regulado de Nisource genera fuentes de ingresos estables. En 2023, la compañía informó:

• Ingresos operativos totales: $ 4.6 mil millones
• Ingresos netos: $ 568 millones
• Base de tarifas: $ 15.3 mil millones

Inversión de energía limpia

Nisource ha cometido $ 2.1 mil millones en inversiones de infraestructura de energía limpia Entre 2023-2026, centrándose en:

• Modernización de la cuadrícula
• Integración de energía renovable
• Reducción de emisiones de carbono

Confiabilidad del servicio

La Compañía mantiene las altas métricas de confiabilidad del servicio:

Sostenibilidad ambiental

Objetivos de Nisource 90% de reducción de emisiones de carbono para 2035 En comparación con la línea de base de 2005, con inversiones planificadas en:

• Capacidad de generación solar
• Proyectos de energía eólica
• Programas de eficiencia energética

Nisource Inc. (NI) - Análisis FODA: debilidades

Altos requisitos de gasto de capital para actualizaciones y mantenimiento de infraestructura

Nisource Inc. reportó gastos de capital totales de $ 1.8 mil millones en 2022, con importantes inversiones centradas en la modernización y mantenimiento de la infraestructura en sus redes de gases naturales y servicios eléctricos.

Exposición a riesgos regulatorios y desafíos de casos de tasas potenciales

La compañía enfrenta un escrutinio regulatorio continuo en múltiples estados, con casos de tarifa pendientes en Indiana, Ohio y Massachusetts. Las decisiones regulatorias pueden afectar significativamente los flujos de ingresos y el desempeño financiero.

• Los procedimientos regulatorios de servicios públicos de Indiana buscan ajustes de tarifas
• Mecanismos de recuperación de inversión de infraestructura de Ohio en revisión
• Desafíos de diseño de tarifas eléctricas de Massachusetts

Vulnerabilidad a las interrupciones relacionadas con el clima y los impactos del cambio climático

Territorios de servicio de Nisource experimentados $ 45 millones en costos operativos relacionados con el clima en 2022, destacando la vulnerabilidad a eventos meteorológicos extremos.

Niveles de deuda relativamente altos en comparación con los compañeros de la industria

A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2022, la deuda total de Nisource se mantuvo en $ 8.3 mil millones, que representa una relación deuda / capital de 1.65.

Diversificación geográfica limitada

Nisource opera principalmente en Siete estados, con presencia de mercado concentrada en las regiones del Medio Oeste y Noreste.

• Indiana
• Ohio
• Pensilvania
• Massachusetts
• Kentucky
• Virginia
• Maryland

Nisource Inc. (NI) - Análisis FODA: oportunidades

Creciente demanda de energía limpia e inversiones de infraestructura renovable

Nisource tiene oportunidades significativas en la infraestructura de energía renovable, con una inversión proyectada de $ 2.1 mil millones en proyectos de energía limpia hasta 2026. Se espera que el mercado de energía renovable de EE. UU. Crezca a una tasa compuesta anual de 17.2% entre 2023-2030.

Posible expansión de las redes de distribución de gas natural y transmisión eléctrica

Nisource atiende a aproximadamente 3.2 millones de clientes en seis estados, con posibles oportunidades de expansión de la red en regiones desatendidas.

• Cobertura de la red de distribución de gas natural: 14,300 millas
• Red de transmisión eléctrica: 4.600 millas de circuito
• Expansión del mercado potencial: potencial de crecimiento anual del 12%

Aumento del enfoque en la modernización de la red y las tecnologías de energía inteligente

Se proyecta que las inversiones en tecnología de la red inteligente alcanzarán los $ 110 mil millones a nivel mundial para 2025, presentando oportunidades significativas para Nisource.

Potencial para adquisiciones estratégicas o asociaciones en los sectores de energía emergente

Nisource ha identificado posibles objetivos de adquisición en sectores de energía renovable con valores estimados de transacciones que van desde $ 250 millones a $ 750 millones.

• Adquisiciones potenciales de la compañía de energía renovable: 3-4 objetivos
• Inversión de asociación estimada: $ 500 millones
• Sectores objetivo: tecnologías de almacenamiento de energía solar, eólica, de energía

Incentivos gubernamentales para el desarrollo de energía limpia e infraestructura

Los incentivos del gobierno federal y estatal apoyan la transición de energía limpia de Nisource, con créditos fiscales y subvenciones potenciales estimados en $ 350 millones hasta 2027.

Nisource Inc. (NI) - Análisis FODA: amenazas

Aumento de la competencia de fuentes de energía alternativas

La cuota de mercado de energía solar y eólica proyectada para alcanzar el 30.7% del total de la generación de electricidad de los EE. UU. Para 2030. El costo nivelado de la energía solar disminuyó en un 85% entre 2010-2022. La inversión de energía renovable alcanzó los $ 495 mil millones en todo el mundo en 2022.

Posibles regulaciones ambientales estrictas

Los objetivos de reducción de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero propuesto por la EPA del 89% para el sector eléctrico para 2035. Costos de cumplimiento estimados para compañías de servicios públicos proyectados en $ 78- $ 124 mil millones.

Volatilidad en los precios del gas natural

Volatilidad del precio del gas natural en 2022-2023:

• Rango de precios spot Henry Hub: $ 2.50 - $ 9.50 por millón de BTU
• Fluctuación anual de precios: 62.3% de volatilidad
• Índice de incertidumbre del mercado proyectado: 0.75

Posibles recesiones económicas

Sensibilidad del sector de servicios públicos a los ciclos económicos:

Acelerar la transición de energía renovable

Estadísticas de crecimiento de energía renovable:

• Capacidad anual de energía renovable Adición: 295 GW a nivel mundial
• Inversión proyectada de energía renovable: $ 1.3 billones para 2030
• Riesgo de interrupción del modelo de negocio de servicios públicos tradicionales: 42%

NiSource Inc. (NI) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

Landmark IURC Approval for GenCo to Serve the Data Center Boom

The Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) approval in September 2025 for NIPSCO Generation LLC (GenCo) is a pivotal opportunity, creating a new, scalable growth platform for NiSource Inc.. This regulatory green light allows GenCo to operate as a separate, unregulated subsidiary, specifically designed to meet the massive power demands of the booming data center industry in Northern Indiana. The genius of the structure is that it shields existing Northern Indiana Public Service Company (NIPSCO) retail customers from the costs associated with building new, large-load infrastructure, ensuring that new growth pays for new growth. This model is a blueprint for how regulated utilities can capitalize on the artificial intelligence (AI) and digital expansion trend while maintaining customer affordability, which is defintely a win-win.

New GenCo Platform Includes Approximately $7.0 Billion in Data Center-Related Capital Investment

This new GenCo platform is not just a regulatory concept; it is backed by a substantial capital commitment. NiSource has dedicated approximately $7.0 billion in strategic capital investment toward data center infrastructure, which is a key component of the newly consolidated $28.0 billion capital expenditure plan through 2030. This massive spend is a 45% increase, or about $8.6 billion more, than the prior five-year spending outlook, demonstrating a significant acceleration of growth.

The GenCo investment is specifically earmarked for critical new generation and storage capacity to serve a major, investment-grade data center customer under a 15-year fixed-rate contract. The core infrastructure includes:

• Constructing two 1,300-megawatt (MW) combined-cycle, natural gas-fired turbines.
• Adding 400 megawatts (MW) of new battery storage capacity.
• Delivering approximately $1 billion in cost savings directly to existing NIPSCO households over the life of the contract, due to the new customer bearing the infrastructure costs.

Consolidated Adjusted EPS Growth Target Raised to 8%-9% CAGR Through 2033

The GenCo strategy has immediately translated into a higher financial outlook for the entire company. Management has introduced a consolidated non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) target of 8%-9% for the period from 2026 through 2033. This is a clear step up from the base business's expected growth rate of 6%-8% annually through 2030.

Here's the quick math: The company reaffirmed the upper half of its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance at $1.85 to $1.89. The GenCo investments are expected to contribute an incremental $0.25-$0.45 to adjusted EPS by 2033. This is a material boost in earnings quality, underpinned by predictable cash flows from the new, long-term data center contracts.

Continued Renewable Energy Expansion, with Capacity Already Installed or Under Development

NiSource's commitment to clean energy remains a significant opportunity, aligning with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investment mandates and the goal of retiring all coal-fired generation by the end of 2028. The company is aggressively executing its electric generation transition, which is replacing coal with a diverse mix of wind, solar, and battery storage.

As of late 2025, NIPSCO has approximately 1,950 MW of renewable energy capacity either in-service or under construction and expected to be in-service by year-end. This is a significant, tangible asset base that drives rate base growth. The full-ownership model for many of these new projects allows NIPSCO to claim tax credits and pass the benefits to customers for a 10-year period starting in 2025.

Potential Upside Beyond the Base Capital Plan Through 2029

While the $7.0 billion GenCo investment has absorbed much of the prior 'upside' capital, there is still significant potential for growth beyond the $28.0 billion consolidated CapEx plan. The initial GenCo contract is for one large, investment-grade customer, but NiSource has a strategic pipeline for an additional 1 to 3 gigawatts (GW) of data center projects. Securing just one or two more large customers would require incremental capital investment beyond the current plan, creating a new wave of growth.

Other potential upsides that could drive capital spending beyond the current plan include:

• MISO Transmission Projects: Investments in regional transmission infrastructure to support the evolving grid.
• Transportation Electrification: Electric transmission and distribution (T&D) investments to support the growing electric vehicle (EV) market, including utility-owned charging points.
• Decarbonization and Hydrogen: Generation investments to support asset retirements, further decarbonization, and infrastructure for Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) and green hydrogen production and storage.

What this estimate hides is the timing; these projects are dependent on regulatory approvals and market evolution, but they represent a long-term, multi-billion-dollar runway for growth well into the next decade.

NiSource Inc. (NI) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Exposure to rising interest rates due to the high debt load and need for external financing.

You're looking at a company that is fundamentally capital-intensive, and that means debt is a constant reality. NiSource Inc. (NI) has a significant need for external financing to fund its ambitious capital plan, and the current interest rate environment is a defintely a headwind. The cost of capital is rising, and that directly impacts the bottom line and the affordability of the massive infrastructure upgrades.

In 2025, we saw this threat materialize in the company's financing activities. For instance, in June 2025, NiSource issued $\mathbf{\$1.65}$ billion in SEC-registered debt. The interest rates on these new notes are substantial: $\mathbf{\$900}$ million of the offering carries a $\mathbf{5.350\%}$ coupon, and the remaining $\mathbf{\$750}$ million carries a $\mathbf{5.850\%}$ coupon. This is a clear increase in financing cost compared to the low-rate environment of the past decade. Increased long-term debt balances were cited as a factor offsetting earnings in the third quarter of 2025. The company's ability to maintain its target Funds From Operations-to-Debt (FFO/Debt) ratio, which was $\mathbf{14.6\%}$ in 2024, will be continually tested by these higher borrowing costs and the need to issue more debt to support the $\mathbf{\$28.0}$ billion capital program.

Regulatory pushback on rate increases, like the recent NIPSCO gas rate increase of about $\mathbf{\$5}$ per month for residential customers in Q1 2025.

The regulatory environment is a double-edged sword for utilities. While it provides a stable, regulated return, it also creates a check on the company's ability to pass through costs to customers. Regulatory pushback is a threat because it limits the timely recovery of capital investments, which can compress margins and delay cash flow realization.

The recent NIPSCO natural gas rate case in Indiana is a perfect example. While the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) approved an overall increase, it was a significant reduction from the initial request. The approved increase for the average residential natural gas customer was approximately $\mathbf{\$5}$ per month (or $\mathbf{7.1\%}$ overall), with the second phase applied in Q1 2025. This was materially lower than NIPSCO's initial proposal of approximately $\mathbf{\$8}$ per month (or $\mathbf{10.6\%}$). Furthermore, the IURC denied the request to raise the residential customer charge from $\mathbf{\$16.25}$ to $\mathbf{\$25.50}$ a month, only approving a minimal increase to $\mathbf{\$16.50}$ per month. This denial of the full requested rate base recovery highlights the tangible risk of regulatory lag and pushback on customer affordability concerns.

Increased operational complexity and risk from managing a $\mathbf{\$28.0}$ billion capital program.

The sheer scale of the consolidated capital expenditure plan, which totals $\mathbf{\$28.0}$ billion, introduces a massive layer of operational complexity. This plan represents a $\mathbf{45\%}$ increase over the previous five-year outlook. Managing a portfolio of this size across multiple states and different utility types (gas and electric) creates inherent execution risk. The company must simultaneously manage:

• Executing thousands of infrastructure modernization projects.
• Integrating $\mathbf{\$7.0}$ billion in new data center-related investments.
• Navigating construction risks and supply chain disruptions.
• Addressing risks associated with aging infrastructure while building new assets.

A program of this size is a magnet for construction delays, cost overruns, and potential operational failures, all of which could negatively impact the projected $\mathbf{8\%}$-$\mathbf{9\%}$ consolidated adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2033.

Potential for delays or cost overruns in the coal plant retirement and renewable replacement schedule.

The transition away from coal is a major strategic goal, but it is fraught with execution risk. NiSource has already faced significant delays in its coal plant retirement schedule. The retirement of two units at the R.M. Schahfer Generating Station, originally planned for May 2023, was pushed back until the end of $\mathbf{2025}$ due to supply chain uncertainty and solar project delays. These solar projects, intended as replacements, faced delays of approximately $\mathbf{6}$ to $\mathbf{18}$ months.

Any further delays or cost overruns in the renewable replacement projects force the older, less efficient coal units to run longer, increasing operational costs, environmental compliance risk, and reputational risk. Furthermore, in late 2025, the pace of coal plant retirements appeared to be slowed by a new focus from a federal energy administration on maintaining sufficient generating capacity online. This external policy shift creates a new layer of uncertainty for the company's decarbonization timeline and capital deployment strategy.

Competition for large industrial load, defintely including the new data center customers.

The focus on large-load customers, particularly the booming data center industry in Northern Indiana, is a huge growth opportunity, but it also creates a significant, concentrated risk. The threat is twofold: competition and concentration risk.

First, while NiSource has secured a major contract for a $\mathbf{2.4}$ GW load, other utilities in the region and neighboring states are also aggressively pursuing this high-growth data center load. Competition for these customers is intense. Second, the investment required to serve this load is massive-approximately $\mathbf{\$7.0}$ billion in capital investment. The company's strategy to mitigate the risk of this concentrated load is the creation of NIPSCO Generation LLC (GenCo), a separate entity designed to shield existing NIPSCO retail customers from the costs associated with serving new data center customers. The threat here is that if the demand from these large customers falters, or if the GenCo strategy fails to fully insulate the regulated utility, the financial burden could fall back on the core business, leading to stranded assets or regulatory pushback on rate recovery. You're building a new business line on a single, large customer segment.