Shell Plc (SHE): Analyse Pestle [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le paysage énergétique mondial en évolution rapide, Shell Plc se situe à un carrefour critique, naviguant des défis complexes et des opportunités transformatrices dans les domaines politiques, économiques, sociologiques, technologiques, juridiques et environnementaux. En tant que l'une des plus grandes sociétés énergétiques au monde, Shell se repositionne stratégiquement au milieu des pressions mondiales sans précédent, investit massivement dans les technologies renouvelables et réinvente son modèle commercial traditionnel basé sur les combustibles fossiles pour s'aligner sur les attentes de durabilité émergentes et ses cadres réglementaires stricts. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile la dynamique multiforme en façonnant les décisions stratégiques de Shell, révélant comment l'entreprise s'adapte à un monde exigeant des solutions énergétiques plus durables, innovantes et responsables.

Shell PLC (SHE) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

Pression globale accrue pour les réglementations d'émission de carbone plus strictes

Le système de trading des émissions de l'Union européenne (EU ETS) a fixé un prix du carbone à 80,66 € la tonne de CO2 en janvier 2024. L'engagement de réduction du carbone du Royaume-Uni nécessite une coquille pour acheter des indemnités de carbone à 75,40 £ la tonne.

Région	Réglementation du carbone	Prix ​​du carbone (2024)
Union européenne	Système de trading des émissions de l'UE	80,66 € par tonne CO2
Royaume-Uni	Engagement de réduction du carbone	75,40 £ par tonne CO2

Tensions géopolitiques affectant l'exploration du pétrole et du gaz dans les régions clés

Les activités d'exploration de Shell sont affectées par les risques géopolitiques dans plusieurs régions.

• Moyen-Orient: les conflits en cours réduisant le potentiel d'exploration
• Russie: sanctions limitant les investissements du secteur de l'énergie
• Venezuela: Instabilité politique empêchant le développement des ressources

Incitations et politiques du gouvernement pour promouvoir la transition des énergies renouvelables

Les gouvernements du monde entier offrent des incitations financières aux investissements en énergie renouvelable.

Pays	Incitation aux énergies renouvelables	Valeur (2024)
États-Unis	Crédit d'impôt de production	26 $ par MWh
Allemagne	Loi sur les sources d'énergie renouvelable	0,08 € par kWh

Environnement réglementaire international complexe pour les sociétés énergétiques

Shell fait face à des défis réglementaires complexes dans différentes juridictions.

• États-Unis: Règlement complet sur la protection de l'environnement
• Union européenne: Exigences strictes sur les émissions et les rapports sur la durabilité
• Asie-Pacifique: Politiques de transition énergétique au niveau national

Shell PLC (SHE) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

Les prix mondiaux du pétrole et du gaz volatils ont un impact sur les sources de revenus

Les revenus de Shell des opérations pétrolières et gazières en 2023 étaient de 246,6 milliards de dollars, avec une volatilité importante des prix. Les prix du pétrole brut Brent variaient entre 70 $ et 95 $ le baril au cours de l'année.

Année	Revenus totaux	Huile & Revenus de gaz	Prix ​​du pétrole moyen
2023	246,6 milliards de dollars	197,3 milliards de dollars	82,50 $ / baril
2022	284,3 milliards de dollars	229,5 milliards de dollars	100,20 $ / baril

Investissements importants dans les énergies renouvelables et les technologies propres

Shell investi 3,5 milliards de dollars Dans les énergies renouvelables et les technologies à faible teneur en carbone en 2023, représentant 10,4% du total des dépenses en capital.

Catégorie d'investissement	Montant (2023)	Pourcentage de CAPEX
Énergie renouvelable	2,1 milliards de dollars	6.2%
Technologies à faible teneur en carbone	1,4 milliard de dollars	4.2%

Défis économiques des fluctuations du marché mondial de l'énergie

Shell a connu un 15,7% de baisse du revenu net De 39,9 milliards de dollars en 2022 à 33,6 milliards de dollars en 2023, principalement en raison des incertitudes économiques mondiales.

Stratégies d'optimisation des coûts en cours et de restructuration du portefeuille

Les initiatives d'optimisation des coûts ont abouti à 4,2 milliards de dollars dans les économies d'efficacité opérationnelle en 2023.

Métrique d'optimisation des coûts	Valeur 2023	Valeur 2022
Économies d'efficacité opérationnelle	4,2 milliards de dollars	3,8 milliards de dollars
Dévêtement	5,6 milliards de dollars	4,9 milliards de dollars

Shell PLC (SHE) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Demande croissante des consommateurs de solutions énergétiques durables et vertes

Depuis 2024, les investissements en énergies renouvelables de Shell ont atteint 3,5 milliards de dollars, ce qui représente une augmentation de 22% par rapport à 2023. Les préférences des consommateurs pour les solutions d'énergie verte ont entraîné une croissance de 15,6% en glissement annuel dans le portefeuille d'énergie renouvelable de Shell.

Segment d'énergie	Investissement (milliards USD)	Taux de croissance
Énergie solaire	1.2	18.3%
Énergie éolienne	1.7	24.5%
Hydrogène	0.6	12.7%

Augmentation des attentes sociales en matière de responsabilité environnementale des entreprises

L'engagement de réduction des émissions de carbone de Shell s'élève à 50% d'ici 2030, avec des progrès actuels à 27,4%. La société a alloué 6,2 milliards de dollars aux initiatives de transition nettes-zéro.

Cible environnementale	Engagement	Progrès actuel
Réduction des émissions de carbone	50% d'ici 2030	27.4%
Investissement net-zéro	6,2 milliards de dollars	En cours

Initiatives de diversité et d'inclusion

Les métriques de la diversité des effectifs de Shell pour 2024 Show:

• Femmes en postes de direction: 34,6%
• Représentation de la minorité ethnique: 26,3%
• Ratio d'actions de rémunération entre les sexes: 0,98: 1

Métrique de la diversité	Pourcentage
Femmes en leadership	34.6%
Représentation de la minorité ethnique	26.3%

Changement de perception du public vers la transformation des énergies renouvelables

Les résultats de l'enquête sur la perception du public de Shell indiquent 62,4% de sentiment positif à la transition des énergies renouvelables de l'entreprise, 45,2% des consommateurs soutenant leurs stratégies d'énergie verte.

Métrique de la perception	Pourcentage
Sentiment positif	62.4%
Soutien aux consommateurs	45.2%

Shell PLC (Shel) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Investissements majeurs dans les technologies à faible teneur en carbone et l'énergie de l'hydrogène

Shell a engagé 10 à 15 milliards de dollars par an à des investissements énergétiques à faible teneur en carbone en 2023. Les investissements en technologie de l'hydrogène ont atteint 2,1 milliards de dollars en 2022, avec une expansion prévue de la capacité de production d'hydrogène à 2 millions de tonnes par an d'ici 2030.

Zone technologique	Investissement (2022-2023)	Capacité planifiée
Hydrogène vert	1,2 milliard de dollars	1 million de tonnes / an
Hydrogène bleu	900 millions de dollars	1 million de tonnes / an

Technologies numériques avancées pour l'efficacité opérationnelle

Shell a investi 750 millions de dollars dans les technologies de transformation numérique en 2022, mettant en œuvre des capteurs IoT sur 80% des opérations en amont. Les investissements en cloud computing ont atteint 450 millions de dollars, permettant l'analyse de données en temps réel et la maintenance prédictive.

Technologie numérique	Investissement	Taux de mise en œuvre
Capteurs IoT	350 millions de dollars	80%
Cloud computing	450 millions de dollars	70%

Mise en œuvre de l'IA et de l'apprentissage automatique dans l'exploration et la production

Shell a alloué 600 millions de dollars aux technologies de l'IA et de l'apprentissage automatique en 2022. Les algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique traitent désormais 85% des données d'exploration géologique, réduisant les coûts d'exploration de 22%.

Application d'IA	Investissement	Amélioration de l'efficacité
Traitement des données géologiques	350 millions de dollars	Réduction des coûts de 22%
Maintenance prédictive	250 millions de dollars	Réduction des temps d'arrêt de 15%

Développer des technologies de capture et de stockage du carbone

Shell a investi 1,5 milliard de dollars dans les technologies de capture et de stockage du carbone (CCS) en 2022. La capacité CCS actuelle s'élève à 4 millions de tonnes de CO2 par an, avec des plans pour s'étendre à 10 millions de tonnes d'ici 2030.

Projet CCS	Investissement	Capture de capture de CO2
Projets CCS existants	1,2 milliard de dollars	4 millions de tonnes / an
Expansion future du CCS	300 millions de dollars	10 millions de tonnes / an (d'ici 2030)

Shell PLC (SHE) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Conformité aux réglementations environnementales internationales

Shell PLC fait face à des exigences de conformité strictes sur plusieurs juridictions. En 2023, la société a dépensé 2,7 milliards de dollars pour la conformité environnementale et l'adhésion réglementaire.

Type de réglementation	Coût de conformité	Juridictions couvertes
Normes environnementales de l'UE	980 millions de dollars	27 pays européens
Règlements de l'EPA américains	650 millions de dollars	50 États américains
Lois environnementales asiatiques	540 millions de dollars	12 pays

Des défis juridiques complexes liés aux litiges du changement climatique

Shell affronte 15 affaires juridiques actifs liées au climat dans le monde, avec une exposition financière potentielle estimée à 3,4 milliards de dollars.

Région du litige	Nombre de cas	Exposition juridique estimée
Pays-Bas	4 cas	750 millions de dollars
Royaume-Uni	3 cas	620 millions de dollars
États-Unis	5 cas	1,2 milliard de dollars
Autres juridictions	3 cas	830 millions de dollars

Navigation de tarification du carbone et des systèmes de trading

Shell fonctionne sous 8 mécanismes de tarification du carbone différents, avec des dépenses totales de crédit en carbone de 1,9 milliard de dollars en 2023.

Mécanisme de tarification du carbone	Coût annuel	Émissions couvertes
Système de trading des émissions de l'UE	780 millions de dollars	42 millions de tonnes métriques CO2
California Pap and Trade	340 millions de dollars	15 millions de tonnes métriques CO2
Schéma de trading des émissions britanniques	250 millions de dollars	8 millions de tonnes métriques CO2

Protection de la propriété intellectuelle pour les technologies énergétiques innovantes

Shell maintient 2 345 brevets actifs dans le monde, avec un investissement en propriété intellectuelle de 435 millions de dollars en 2023.

Catégorie de technologie	Nombre de brevets	Investissement en R&D
Énergie renouvelable	687 brevets	180 millions de dollars
Capture de carbone	456 brevets	125 millions de dollars
Stockage d'énergie	312 brevets	90 millions de dollars
Autres technologies	890 brevets	40 millions de dollars

Shell PLC (SHE) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Engagement envers les émissions nettes-zéro d'ici 2050

Shell a fixé un objectif pour réduire l'intensité nette du carbone de 20% d'ici 2030, 50% d'ici 2035 et 100% d'ici 2050. Les émissions des lunettes 1 et 2 de la société en 2022 étaient de 70 millions de tonnes d'équivalent de CO2.

Cible de réduction des émissions	Année	Pourcentage de réduction
Réduction de l'intensité du carbone net	2030	20%
Réduction de l'intensité du carbone net	2035	50%
Réduction de l'intensité du carbone net	2050	100%

Investissements importants dans le portefeuille d'énergies renouvelables

En 2022, Shell a investi 3,5 milliards de dollars dans des projets d'énergie renouvelable. La capacité de production d'électricité renouvelable de l'entreprise a atteint 5,2 Gigawatts en 2022.

Catégorie d'investissement	Montant (USD)	Capacité
Investissements en énergie renouvelable	3,5 milliards de dollars	5.2 GW

Réduire l'empreinte carbone à travers les opérations mondiales

Les technologies de capture et de stockage du carbone implémentées par Shell (CCS) sur plusieurs installations. En 2022, la société a capturé 2,1 millions de tonnes de CO2 grâce à ses projets CCS.

Technologie de capture de carbone	CO2 capturé (tonnes)
Capture et stockage du carbone	2,1 millions

Développer des solutions énergétiques durables et des approches d'économie circulaire

Shell a investi 1,2 milliard de dollars dans l'économie circulaire et les technologies à faible teneur en carbone en 2022. La société a développé des projets de production d'hydrogène d'une capacité totale de 1,5 gigawatts.

Technologie durable	Investissement (USD)	Capacité
Technologies d'économie circulaire	1,2 milliard de dollars	N / A
Production d'hydrogène	N / A	1,5 GW

Shell plc (SHEL) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

You're looking at Shell plc's social landscape in 2025, and the core takeaway is clear: the company is navigating a profound social contract shift. Public and investor demands for climate action are colliding directly with the company's fossil fuel expansion plans, creating significant reputational and talent risks. This tension is the single biggest social factor impacting Shell's long-term value.

Growing investor and public pressure for accelerated net-zero targets.

The pressure on Shell to accelerate its net-zero commitment beyond the 2050 target is intense and financially material. At the May 2025 Annual General Meeting, a climate-focused resolution garnered support from 20.56% of investors, a significant indicator of shareholder dissatisfaction with the current pace, particularly regarding Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) expansion. Honestly, a 20% vote against management is a big deal.

Furthermore, a powerful coalition of 27 investor groups, representing over $4 trillion in assets, has co-filed resolutions urging the company to adopt a stricter Scope 3 absolute emissions target. Scope 3 emissions-the indirect emissions from the use of products like gasoline and jet fuel-account for a massive 95% of Shell's total carbon footprint. This is the company's biggest climate challenge, and investors are demanding a clearer, faster plan to manage it.

Investor Pressure Metric (2025)	Value/Impact	Significance
Shareholder Resolution Support (May 2025 AGM)	20.56% of votes	High dissent signal; requires board consultation.
Assets Pushing for Stricter Scope 3 Targets	Over $4 trillion	Represents major institutional investor risk exposure.
Shell's Scope 3 Emissions Share	95% of total carbon footprint	Targeting this area is critical for achieving net-zero by 2050.

Difficulty in recruiting top engineering talent due to the industry's public image.

The negative public image associated with the oil and gas sector makes it defintely harder for Shell to compete for top-tier talent, especially engineers. The war for engineering talent is already fierce across all sectors: a 2023 study found that 77% of employers struggled to find qualified engineering candidates, and this shortage continues into 2025.

For Shell, this general shortage is amplified by a social factor: engineers, particularly those specializing in high-demand areas like software, data science, and renewables, increasingly prioritize 'meaningful work' connected to climate solutions. Shell is actively hiring for specialized roles like Senior Software Engineer (ETRM) and Associate Engineer DataDoc Mgmt to support its digital transformation and energy transition. The company must convincingly frame its transition strategy, including its planned 2023-2025 investment of $10 billion to $15 billion in low-carbon solutions, as a compelling mission to attract and retain the best people.

Consumer shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) impacting long-term fuel demand.

Consumer behavior is directly threatening Shell's core retail fuel business, though the pace varies by region. Global sales of Electric Vehicles (EVs) are projected to top 20 million units in 2025, a clear signal of the long-term trend. This shift is expected to displace approximately 5.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil demand by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

However, the transition is not a straight line. Shell's own 2025 Recharge Driver Survey showed a stalling of interest among non-EV owners due to cost concerns. In the US, the willingness to switch to an EV slipped to 31% in 2025 (down from 34% in 2024), and in Europe, it dropped more sharply from 48% to 41%. Still, the long-term trend is cemented: a striking 91% of current EV drivers plan to buy another EV next. Shell is responding by expanding its charging network, which currently includes over 75,000 charging stations worldwide.

Increased focus on local community engagement and social license to operate.

Shell's ability to operate depends on maintaining a 'social license to operate' (SLO) with local communities, especially in the over 70 countries where it has a presence. This is a constant risk management exercise.

The company addresses this through structured social investment programs in around 50 countries, focusing on three priority areas:

• Access to Energy: Providing reliable, affordable power to underserved populations.
• Skills and Enterprise Development: Running programs like Shell LiveWire, which operates in 18 countries, to support small businesses.
• STEM Education: Investing in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics training.

This engagement is crucial because any perceived or actual negative impact on a local community-such as an oil spill or land dispute-can immediately halt operations, leading to significant financial losses and irreparable reputational damage. The company uses a formal process, the Mutual Gains Approach, to align company and community interests, because a good neighbor is a more profitable partner.

Shell plc (SHEL) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

You're watching Shell plc navigate a critical technological crossroads, where the efficiency of its core oil and gas business is being turbo-charged by digital tools, but its future growth is entirely dependent on scaling up low-carbon technologies like Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) and Electric Vehicle (EV) infrastructure. The near-term focus is on using technology to strip out costs while making strategic, high-return bets on the energy transition.

The company has raised its structural cost reduction target, leveraging technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) to simplify operations and boost performance. This is a crucial move to maintain competitiveness against US rivals, but the pace of low-carbon tech adoption is the real long-term risk.

Rapid advancements in Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) making projects more viable.

The maturation of CCUS technology is defintely a game-changer, moving it from a niche solution to a commercially viable tool for decarbonizing hard-to-abate industries. Shell is a key player here, leveraging its expertise in reservoir management and large-scale project development to lower the unit cost of capture and storage.

For example, the Northern Lights project in Norway, a joint venture with Equinor and TotalEnergies, saw a $714 million investment to triple its capacity to 5 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2028. That kind of scale is what makes the economics work. Shell is also moving ahead with two CCUS projects in Alberta, Canada, with one expected to capture approximately 650,000 tonnes of CO2 annually. This isn't just about emissions; it's about creating a new, essential service business.

Here's a quick look at Shell's CCUS scale-up:

• Northern Lights: 5 million tonnes per year capacity target by 2028.
• Alberta Projects: One facility targeting 650,000 tonnes of CO2 capture annually.
• Strategic Focus: Directing most CCUS investment toward decarbonizing its own operations for the rest of the decade.

Digitalization of upstream operations reducing exploration costs by up to 10%.

While the specific 10% reduction in exploration costs is a good industry benchmark, Shell's real-world impact from digitalization is captured in its massive structural cost savings target. The company is using AI and machine learning to streamline everything from seismic data interpretation to platform maintenance, which directly reduces the operating expense (OpEx) for the Upstream division.

Shell has increased its structural cost reduction target from $2-3 billion by the end of 2025 to a cumulative $5-7 billion by the end of 2028, benchmarked against 2022. This is the financial result of a technology-driven simplification journey. Machine learning is already being rolled out to minimize outages and shorten maintenance time at oil and gas platforms, improving uptime and efficiency.

Maturation of green hydrogen electrolysis technology lowering production costs.

Green hydrogen (hydrogen produced by splitting water using renewable electricity) is the critical fuel for decarbonizing heavy transport and industry, but cost is the barrier. Current industry estimates for the Levelised Cost of Green Hydrogen (LCOH) in 2024-2025 are still high, ranging from $3.5 to $5 per kilogram.

The good news is that the technology is maturing rapidly. Strategies focusing on manufacturing scale-up and design standardization could cut electrolyser costs by 40% in the short term. Breakthroughs in new electrolysis technology, like those using ion-conducting polymers, promise a potential 5x to 10x reduction in the cost of membrane electrolyzers, which would make the industry target of $2/kg achievable. Shell is investing in this space, knowing that being a first-mover in commercially viable green hydrogen will unlock massive industrial demand.

Need to invest heavily in EV charging infrastructure to capture market share.

The shift to electric vehicles (EVs) is a clear and present threat to Shell's traditional retail fuel business, so the company is making a major push to own the charging experience. The strategy is to leverage its existing network of retail sites and focus on high-return, fast-charging hubs.

By the end of 2025, Shell aims to expand its public charging points to 70,000 globally, a significant jump from 54,000 in 2023. The company is prioritizing DC fast charging and expects its EV charging arm to deliver a healthy 12% internal rate of return (IRR) by 2025, which is a strong signal of profitability in this new sector. The total capital expenditure for Shell for the 2025-2028 period is projected to be $20-22 billion per year, with a portion of this funding the aggressive build-out of this e-mobility network.

Technological Focus Area	2025 Key Metric/Target	Strategic Impact
CCUS Capacity (Northern Lights)	5 million tonnes per year target by 2028	Scales up a new, essential decarbonization service business.
Structural Cost Reduction (Digitalization/AI)	Cumulative $5-7 billion by end of 2028 (vs. 2022)	Improves capital discipline and operational resilience in core Upstream business.
Green Hydrogen Cost (Industry LCOH)	Currently $3.5-5 per kilogram (2024-2025)	Cost barrier remains, but technology maturation promises 5x to 10x electrolyzer cost reduction.
EV Charging Infrastructure	70,000 public charging points globally by 2025	Captures market share in e-mobility; expected to deliver 12% IRR by 2025.

Next step: Review the capital allocation within the $20-22 billion annual capex budget to ensure the low-carbon investments are truly enough to outpace the technological transition risk.

Shell plc (SHEL) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

You need to map out the legal landscape for Shell plc, and honestly, it's a minefield right now. The core legal risk isn't just about compliance; it's about the fundamental legality of an oil major's long-term business model in a climate-constrained world. The key actions for 2025 revolve around managing litigation risk and preparing for new global carbon pricing mechanisms that are now moving from theory to law.

Ongoing climate change litigation challenging the company's transition strategy

The legal pressure on Shell plc's energy transition strategy is intense and remains a significant material risk, even after a key victory. In November 2024, the Court of Appeal in The Hague overturned the landmark 2021 ruling that had ordered a 45% emissions cut by 2030. However, the court explicitly affirmed that Shell plc has a legal duty to mitigate climate damage, setting a powerful precedent for future cases. This is a win for Shell plc on the specific reduction percentage, but a loss on the core legal principle of corporate climate responsibility.

The immediate legal risk is the new lawsuit announced by Milieudefensie (Friends of the Earth Netherlands) in May 2025, which challenges the company's continued investment in new oil and gas projects. Shell plc's response in June 2025, stating it will not stop these investments, means a new, high-stakes legal battle is defintely underway. To counter the narrative, Shell plc has committed to spending between $10 billion and $15 billion on low-carbon energy solutions from 2023 to 2025. Plus, the company achieved a major operational milestone in 2025 by eliminating routine gas flaring from its Upstream operated assets, five years ahead of the World Bank's Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative.

Stricter methane emission standards from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

US methane regulation is a prime example of legal uncertainty in 2025, creating a planning headache. The regulatory framework is a mix of new rules and immediate legislative challenges. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) established a Waste Emissions Charge (WEC) on methane, with the rate set to increase to $1,200 per metric ton for wasteful emissions in Calendar Year 2025. This applies to large oil and gas facilities that emit more than 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent per year.

But here's the quick math challenge: in March 2025, Congress prohibited the EPA from collecting the WEC until 2034. So, while the financial penalty rate is on the books, the immediate fiscal year liability is suspended. Separately, the EPA is actively reconsidering the underlying Clean Air Act methane rules (NSPS OOOOb/EG OOOOc) in mid-2025, which could further delay or alter compliance requirements. Shell plc's internal goal is to maintain a methane emissions intensity below 0.2% and achieve near-zero by 2030, a target that helps them manage this regulatory flux regardless of the final rule.

EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) affecting refined product exports

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a future cost that requires immediate data collection. The transitional phase runs until December 31, 2025, meaning there is no financial levy yet; importers must only submit quarterly reports on embedded emissions. The definitive phase, which requires the purchase of CBAM certificates tied to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) price, begins on January 1, 2026.

What this estimate hides is that the initial CBAM scope for 2025 covers cement, iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen. Refined petroleum products, a major export category for Shell plc, are currently not included in the transitional phase. However, the scope is expected to expand to include crude petroleum and petroleum products by 2030, so you must build the data collection and verification systems now to avoid major financial penalties starting in 2026 on other products, and to prepare for the eventual inclusion of refined fuels.

The 2025 reporting deadlines are clear:

• Q1 2025 Report: Due by April 30, 2025
• Q2 2025 Report: Due by July 31, 2025
• Q3 2025 Report: Due by October 31, 2025
• Q4 2025 Report: Due by January 31, 2026

New international maritime fuel regulations (IMO 2025) requiring low-sulfur options

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is driving a two-pronged legal shift in marine fuels: sulfur reduction and a new GHG pricing framework. The sulfur rules are tightening immediately: the Mediterranean Sea becomes an Emission Control Area (ECA) on May 1, 2025, mandating a stringent 0.1% sulfur cap for all marine fuel used there. This increases demand for Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) and alternative fuels like Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

The long-term game-changer is the IMO Net-Zero Framework, which includes a global fuel standard and a GHG emissions pricing mechanism. This framework was approved in April 2025 and is scheduled for formal adoption in October 2025, with entry into force in 2027. Shell plc is positioning itself as a leader in the transition fuel market, planning to more than double its LNG bunkering vessel fleet by 2025. The company aims to create 3 million tonnes per year of additional LNG demand in new markets by the end of 2025, supporting the shift to a fuel that can cut CO2 emissions by up to 23% compared to conventional marine fuels.

Regulation / Requirement	Key 2025 Legal/Financial Data	Shell plc Action / Impact
Climate Litigation (Milieudefensie)	New lawsuit announced May 2025 challenging continued fossil fuel investment.	Shell plc investing $10-15 billion in low-carbon energy (2023-2025). Eliminated routine gas flaring from Upstream assets in 2025.
US EPA Methane Standards (WEC)	Waste Emissions Charge rate is $1,200/metric ton of methane for 2025. Collection is prohibited until 2034 by Congress (March 2025).	Must comply with new EPA monitoring/control rules (NSPS OOOOb/EG OOOOc) or face potential future fees. Internal target: methane intensity below 0.2% by 2030.
EU CBAM (Refined Products)	Transitional phase ends December 31, 2025 (Reporting only, no tax). Refined products not in initial scope, but hydrogen is.	Must meet quarterly reporting deadlines (e.g., Q3 2025 report due October 31, 2025). Prepare for full tax phase starting January 1, 2026.
IMO Maritime Fuel Regulations	Mediterranean Sea becomes ECA on May 1, 2025 (stricter 0.1% sulfur cap). IMO Net-Zero Framework adoption scheduled for October 2025.	Expanding LNG bunkering fleet to more than double by 2025. Target: 3 million tonnes/year of additional LNG demand by 2025.

Next Step: Legal and Compliance teams need to finalize the Q3 2025 CBAM emissions report by October 31, 2025, and model the $1,200/ton WEC liability for US assets to budget for future compliance investments.

Shell plc (SHEL) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental factor is Shell plc's (SHEL) most complex and material risk, demanding a dual focus on climate transition and operational resilience against physical climate impacts. Your immediate concern should be the rising, non-linear costs associated with extreme weather and the increasing regulatory pressure on legacy assets, which directly impacts the cash flow available for the energy transition.

Extreme weather events (hurricanes, floods) increasing insurance and operational risk in the Gulf of Mexico.

The physical risks of climate change are not a theoretical long-term problem; they are a near-term operational cost, especially in the US Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be above-normal, with forecasts calling for 13 to 19 named storms, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

This heightened activity forces Shell to execute costly, precautionary measures, like pausing drilling and transferring non-essential personnel from key deepwater assets such as Appomattox, Vito, Ursa, Mars, Auger, and Enchilada/Salsa. Each shutdown, even temporary, represents lost production and increased insurance premiums. It's a direct hit to your operating cash flow (CFFO). The recurrence of these events remains a major challenge, despite investments in storm-resilient infrastructure.

Mandates for reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions by a further 5% in 2025.

Shell's primary climate commitment is to become a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050, which includes halving absolute Scope 1 (direct operations) and Scope 2 (purchased energy) emissions by 2030, compared to 2016 levels. This is a massive undertaking. By the end of 2024, Shell had already achieved a 30% reduction in its Scope 1 and 2 emissions against the 2016 baseline.

The more immediate 2025 target is focused on Net Carbon Intensity (NCI)-the average carbon emissions per unit of energy sold-which is targeted for a 9-13% reduction by 2025 compared to 2016. This metric, while not an absolute emissions cap, reflects the shift in your product mix toward lower-carbon energy. The company also announced the elimination of routine flaring from its Upstream operations by the start of January 2025, a critical step in reducing methane and Scope 1 emissions.

• Scope 1 & 2 Absolute Reduction (vs. 2016): 30% achieved by end of 2024.
• Net Carbon Intensity (NCI) Target (vs. 2016): 9-13% reduction by 2025.
• Routine Flaring: Eliminated from Upstream operations as of January 1, 2025.

Increased regulatory scrutiny on decommissioning old oil and gas infrastructure.

The regulatory environment for decommissioning legacy oil and gas infrastructure is tightening, particularly in the US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). This scrutiny is driven by the potential for environmental disasters from aging assets and the legal framework of joint and several trailing liability, which can hold Shell responsible for cleanup costs even on divested assets if the current owner defaults.

The financial scale of this liability is growing. Decommissioning expenditure in North America is projected to reach $15 billion by 2030, growing at an annual rate of 7% from 2024. Shell carries significant current and non-current decommissioning liabilities on its balance sheet, and regulators are increasingly focused on ensuring these provisions are adequate.

Region	Decommissioning Expenditure Projection	Growth Rate (2024-2030)
North America	Up to $15 billion by 2030	7% Annual Rate
UK Continental Shelf	Expected to reach 33% of total oil & gas expenditure by 2030	N/A

Scarcity of fresh water impacting refinery operations in drought-prone areas.

Water security is quickly becoming a material risk for the Downstream business. Refinery operations, especially cooling and processing, are highly water-intensive. Globally, escalating water scarcity is predicted to affect two-thirds of the world's population by 2025, increasing the physical and regulatory risk in regions with Shell's major refining and chemical assets.

While Shell is not isolated, the broader fossil fuel sector reported risks to production capacity due to water issues. For instance, 16 of 82 fossil fuel companies disclosed potential production risks from water-related issues in 2022. This pressure will only increase, forcing capital deployment toward water-recycling and desalination technologies, which raises operating costs and impacts refining margins in drought-prone areas like the US Southwest.

What this estimate hides is the sheer execution risk in pivoting a company of Shell's size. It's a huge ship to turn.

Next step: Finance needs to model the impact of a sustained $10/barrel oil price drop against the current $20-22 billion annual CapEx plan by next Tuesday.