IDACORP, Inc. (IDA): SWOT Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're looking for a clear, actionable breakdown of IDACORP, Inc. (IDA)'s current position, and honestly, the picture is one of regulated stability mixed with high-growth pressures. Their core strength is a low-cost, carbon-free hydroelectric generation base, making up approximately 50% of their mix, which is a massive competitive edge. But managing the projected 2.2% customer growth means navigating over $400 million in 2025 capital expenditures-a tightrope walk that will determine if they hit their strong projected 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance of around $5.40. You need to see how the SWOT analysis maps this near-term risk to action.

IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) - SWOT Analysis: Strengths

Regulated utility model provides predictable cash flow and earnings.

You want stability, and IDACORP delivers it through its core business: a regulated utility model. This structure means Idaho Power Company, the main subsidiary, operates under a framework that allows for the recovery of prudent costs and a regulated return on equity (ROE) on its investments. Honestly, this is the bedrock of a utility's financial strength. Over 98% of IDACORP's earnings are driven by these regulated operations, which is why the earnings and cash flow profile is so steady.

The predictability is evident in the cash flow from operating activities, which for the twelve months ending June 30, 2025, was reported at a robust $1.478 billion. This financial foundation is further shored up by a regulatory mechanism in Idaho that supports the company's credit profile through various cost recovery methods and the strategic use of tax credits. It's a low-drama, high-certainty business model.

Low-cost, carbon-free hydroelectric generation is a significant part of their mix.

IDACORP has a major structural advantage in its generation mix, centered on its 17 low-cost hydropower projects on the Snake River and its tributaries. This is a massive competitive edge because it keeps customer rates low-often 20% to 30% below the national average.

The company's 2024 energy mix showed that hydropower alone accounted for 38.2% of the total energy. When you factor in long-term purchases of other clean energy like wind and solar, the total clean energy derived from all sources is approximately 66% of the mix. This clean profile reduces environmental risk and aligns with the company's goal of achieving 100% clean energy by 2045.

Here's the quick math on their clean energy foundation (2024 data):

• Hydropower: 38.2%
• Long-term Wind, Solar, and other Renewables: 17.9%
• Total Clean Energy (Approx.): 66%

Service territory in Idaho is experiencing high customer growth.

The Idaho service territory is one of the fastest-growing in the nation, and IDACORP is directly benefiting from this demographic trend. This isn't just residential growth; it's being fueled by major commercial and industrial customers like Micron and Meta Platforms, which are expanding operations in the area.

The customer base expanded year-over-year by 2.5% as of July 2025, which is a very high rate for a regulated utility. This growth has pushed the total customer count to over 650,000. This rapid expansion drives the need for new infrastructure, which in turn supports a growing rate base and allows the company to invest a projected $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion in capital expenditures in 2025. This is a virtuous cycle: growth pays for growth, limiting the impact on customer affordability.

Strong 2025 projected earnings per share (EPS) guidance.

The company's financial performance in 2025 has been strong enough to warrant a raised earnings guidance. The latest full-year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance was updated and raised to a range of $5.80 to $5.90. This is significantly higher than the previous year's actual diluted EPS of $5.50 in 2024. The consensus analyst estimate sits right in the middle at $5.84.

This strong forecast is a direct result of that customer growth, plus the strategic use of accumulated deferred investment tax credits (ADITCs) under the Idaho regulatory mechanism. Specifically, Idaho Power expects to use between $60 million and $77 million of additional ADITCs in 2025, which provides a nice boost to the bottom line.

To be fair, the guidance assumes normal weather and power supply expenses, but the underlying trend is defintely positive. Here is the breakdown of the 2025 EPS guidance:

IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) - SWOT Analysis: Weaknesses

You're looking for the structural weaknesses in IDACORP, Inc.'s business model, and the reality is that for a regulated utility, the biggest risks are always concentration and the timing mismatch between spending money and getting paid back. The company's reliance on a single geographic area and its massive capital spending plans create a financial pressure point that only regulatory approval can relieve.

Heavy reliance on weather and water conditions for hydro generation output

IDACORP's primary operating subsidiary, Idaho Power, has historically benefited from its vast, low-cost hydroelectric system. It's a strength, but it's also a clear weakness because it ties the company's financial performance directly to the weather. We saw this risk materialize in 2022 when below-normal water conditions reduced hydro generation output, forcing the company to buy more expensive power on the open market. This is a classic operational risk.

For the 2025 fiscal year, Idaho Power's projected hydropower generation is expected to fall between 6.5 and 8.5 million megawatt-hours (MWh), but this entire earnings guidance assumes normal weather conditions. If the snowpack or rainfall is lower than normal, the company has to pivot fast, which impacts power supply expenses and, ultimately, net income. That's a defintely a variable you can't control.

Limited geographic diversity; nearly all revenue comes from Idaho Power

The vast majority of IDACORP's earnings are concentrated in a single regulated utility, Idaho Power, which operates primarily in Idaho and a small part of Oregon. This lack of geographic diversity means the company is highly vulnerable to regulatory and economic shifts within that specific region.

To be fair, the Idaho service territory is seeing robust customer growth-Idaho Power served nearly 650,000 customers at the end of 2024, with a 2.6% customer growth rate. Still, this regional focus is a weakness because a single adverse regulatory ruling by the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) or a significant economic downturn in the Treasure Valley could disproportionately impact the entire corporation. Honesty, over 98% of IDACORP's earnings are driven by its regulated utility operations, making it a highly concentrated risk profile.

Significant capital expenditure (CapEx) needs, projected at over $400 million for 2025

The company is facing a massive, near-term capital expenditure cycle driven by customer growth and the need for new infrastructure, including new generation and transmission. The initial $400 million figure you might have seen is a gross understatement. Idaho Power's projected capital expenditures for 2025 are actually in the range of $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion (excluding Allowance for Funds Used During Construction).

Here's the quick math on the scale of the commitment:

• The 5-year CapEx forecast (2025-2029) is approximately $5.6 billion.
• This represents an increase of over 100% from the average annual CapEx of the previous five years.

This huge spending is necessary to serve new large industrial customers like Micron Technology, Inc. and Meta Platforms, Inc., but it requires significant external financing and puts pressure on the balance sheet until those assets are included in the rate base.

Regulatory lag, where new rates don't immediately cover rising costs of new plant

The core problem with high CapEx is regulatory lag (the time delay between when a utility spends money on new plant and when regulators approve a new rate that allows the utility to earn a return on that investment). The utility has to finance the new plant, incurring debt and depreciation costs, before it can bill customers for it.

IDACORP does have a mechanism to help mitigate this lag: the accelerated amortization of Accumulated Deferred Investment Tax Credits (ADITCs). This tool allows Idaho Power to use tax credits to boost earnings. For 2025, the company expects to use between $50 million and $77 million of additional ADITC amortization to support its earnings. The fact that they rely on this mechanism, plus the filing of a new Idaho General Rate Case on May 30, 2025, confirms that regulatory lag is a persistent financial headwind they must actively manage.

For context on the financial impact of this lag, here is the expected CapEx and the primary mitigation tool for 2025:

Finance: draft a quarterly report detailing the expected ADITC usage versus actual CapEx deployment by the end of Q1 2026.

IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

Accelerate grid modernization and transmission upgrades to handle load growth.

You have a significant opportunity to invest in your core infrastructure, directly supported by the explosive customer growth in your service territory. The 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) projects a near-term spike in demand: peak demand is expected to grow by nearly 1,000 megawatts (MW) over the next five years, which is a massive increase. This growth, fueled by a 2.3% customer base expansion in Q3 2025, requires immediate, large-scale grid upgrades.

Your capital plan is already focused here, with the 2025-2029 IRP allocating a total of $5.6 billion to capital expenditures, much of it for transmission and distribution. Successful execution of high-voltage projects like the Boardman to Hemingway and Southwest Intertie transmission lines, both 500-kilovolt lines, will not only ensure reliability but also enable you to import necessary energy during peak demand periods. This is defintely a growth-pays-for-growth scenario.

• Manage 5-year peak demand growth of nearly 1,000 MW.
• Execute on the $5.6 billion CapEx plan (2025-2029).
• Complete the 500-kV transmission projects for grid resilience.

Expand renewable energy portfolio beyond hydro to meet state and customer decarbonization goals.

While your current generation mix is already about 69% clean, thanks to your substantial hydropower fleet, the opportunity lies in diversifying away from hydro's climate-vulnerability and meeting the state's ambitious goal of 100% clean energy by 2045. The 2025 IRP outlines concrete steps to expand your portfolio beyond the existing 17 hydropower plants.

You are actively moving to add substantial new capacity, primarily in solar and battery storage, which are critical for grid stability with intermittent renewables. For 2025 alone, the plan includes adding 80 MW of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and 200 MW of Solar. This is a direct, actionable path to replacing your planned exit from coal-fired operations by the end of 2030.

Here's the quick math on near-term clean energy additions:

Increase rate base through successful execution of large CapEx projects.

The capital expenditure program is the engine for regulated utility growth, and your planned investments translate directly into a higher rate base, which is the value of assets on which you are permitted to earn a regulated return. Your aggressive 2025-2029 capital plan of $5.6 billion is projected to drive a rate base Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.1% over that period.

This growth is substantial. If your forecasted capital additions are approved by regulators, your total system rate base could reach approximately $9.7 billion by the end of 2029, up from about $4.4 billion in 2024. Your ability to execute on the $1.0-$1.1 billion CapEx forecast for 2025 is a critical near-term step in realizing this long-term value. Successfully executing these projects is the single most important financial action you can take.

Benefit from federal clean energy incentives and infrastructure funding.

The federal government's push for clean energy and infrastructure provides significant financial tailwinds, primarily through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). These incentives can substantially lower the cost of capital projects and reduce regulatory lag (the delay between investment and rate recovery).

A key benefit is the existing regulatory mechanism in Idaho that allows for the use of tax credits to support earnings. Idaho Power expects to use between $50 million and $60 million of additional tax credit amortization for the full year 2025. This mechanism is a direct financial advantage, allowing for strong returns on equity. Furthermore, programs like the Idaho Solar for All Program, which was awarded $56.5 million by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to administer, create a supportive environment for broader clean energy adoption and further infrastructure investment opportunities.

Finance: draft a 13-week cash view by Friday incorporating the $50-$60 million tax credit amortization benefit for 2025.

IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

You're looking at IDACORP's risks, and the core threats for a regulated utility like this always boil down to two things: what the regulators let you earn and what the weather does to your low-cost power. The near-term view, especially through 2025, shows these threats are very real and quantifiable, even with the company's strong customer growth.

Adverse regulatory decisions on rate cases could limit authorized return on equity (ROE).

The biggest threat to IDACORP's earnings is the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) not approving the full rate increase or the requested Return on Equity (ROE) in the 2025 General Rate Case. Idaho Power filed on May 30, 2025, seeking a substantial $199.1 million annual retail revenue increase, which included a request for a 10.4% ROE and a 51% equity ratio on a $4.6 billion Idaho rate base. That's the target. But regulators rarely grant the full ask.

The October 2025 settlement stipulation, which is still pending IPUC approval near the end of December 2025, already cuts the proposed increase down to approximately $110 million. This negotiated cut immediately compresses the potential earnings. The previous approved ROE was 9.6% from the 2023 rate case. If the IPUC's final order lands closer to that 9.6% figure, or even lower, it directly caps the profitability of the company's multi-billion dollar capital investment plan. This is a classic regulatory lag risk.

Extreme drought conditions could severely reduce low-cost hydro generation.

IDACORP's subsidiary, Idaho Power, relies heavily on its 17 hydropower facilities on the Snake River and its tributaries, which accounted for 38.2% of its energy mix in 2024. When water is scarce, the company must buy more expensive power on the wholesale market, which hits the bottom line. The company's 2025 guidance shows this risk materializing.

The company initially forecast 2025 hydropower generation to be in the range of 7.0-8.0 million megawatt-hours (MWh). By October 2025, they narrowed that forecast to a lower range of 6.5-7.0 million MWh. Here's the quick math: a drop of 1.0 million MWh from the high end of the initial forecast means a direct, unmitigated increase in power supply costs. While power cost adjustment mechanisms (PCAs) help recover some of this, they don't cover everything and create a lag. The Northwest River Forecast Center's outlook for a below-normal water supply in portions of the Snake River Basin only solidifies this threat. One clean one-liner: Low water equals high power costs.

Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital for planned debt-financed CapEx.

The current environment of higher interest rates directly pressures the company's massive infrastructure spending. IDACORP's 2025 Capital Expenditure (CapEx) forecast is a substantial $1.0-$1.1 billion, funding projects like new transmission lines and generation resources. A significant portion of this is financed through debt.

The financial impact is already clear in the 2025 results. The company reported that its net non-operating expense-which largely includes interest expense-increased by $19.0 million in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This increase is explicitly tied to higher long-term debt balances and the rising cost of servicing that debt. The higher cost of capital creates a drag on earnings until new rates are approved to reflect the increased financing costs, which is a defintely risk.

• 2025 CapEx forecast: $1.0-$1.1 billion.
• Nine-month 2025 interest expense increase: $19.0 million (in non-operating expense, net).
• Risk: Regulatory lag in recovering the higher interest expense on new debt.

Competition from distributed generation (solar) reducing utility sales volume, a defintely risk.

Despite robust customer growth-Idaho Power added approximately 16,500 customers (a 2.6% growth rate) in the twelve months ended March 31, 2025-the utility faces the persistent threat of distributed generation (DG), primarily rooftop solar, reducing sales volume per customer. This is a structural challenge that customer growth only partially masks.

In 2023, the impact of lower sales volumes on a per-customer basis, particularly among residential and irrigation customers, decreased operating income by $31.3 million compared to 2022. While weather plays a role, the long-term trend of customers self-generating power via solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is a key driver. This trend erodes the volume of kilowatt-hours sold over which fixed costs are recovered. You have to keep building out the grid to serve all those new customers, but the existing customers are buying less power from you.