Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN): 5 FORCES Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Mullen Automotive, Inc. after its October 2025 Nasdaq delisting, and honestly, the picture is tough. This pivot to commercial EVs means you're facing a market where suppliers are suing for millions in past-due payments, and the company's Trailing Twelve Months revenue sits at just $9.34 million USD. That's a micro-cap fighting established giants, where customers can snag up to a $45,000 government voucher for a truck, effectively setting the price floor. We need to map out exactly how these intense forces-from customer leverage to supplier aggression-shape the investment thesis right now. This is defintely not a place for the faint of heart.

Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers

You're analyzing the supplier landscape for Mullen Automotive, Inc., and frankly, the picture as of late 2025 shows significant pressure points, especially given the company's current operational scale.

Supplier Disputes and Financial Strain

The immediate pressure from suppliers is evident through litigation, particularly within the Bollinger Motors segment, which Mullen Automotive controls. As of late 2025, at least six suppliers have initiated legal action to settle overdue invoices, with the total amount sought by these suppliers exceeding five million dollars against Bollinger Innovations alone. This level of dispute signals that Mullen Automotive, Inc.'s ability to maintain smooth, timely payment terms across its supply chain is under strain, directly increasing supplier bargaining power.

Critical Technology Lock-in

Mullen Automotive, Inc. remains critically dependent on a single external partner for its next-generation power source. The agreement with Enpower Greentech Inc. (EGI) for the SWIFT series semi solid-state batteries (SSB) dictates that domestic production integration at the Fullerton, California, facility is slated to begin in early 2026. Until that date, EGI holds substantial power over Mullen Automotive's advanced battery roadmap, as the company has been working on this initiative for the past 18 months.

The key dependency timeline looks like this:

High Domestic Sourcing Limits Cost Flexibility

Mullen Automotive, Inc.'s strategic push for U.S.-based assembly and sourcing, while offering tariff protection, inherently limits access to potentially lower-cost global suppliers. The company has publicly stated that it sources 67% of its vehicle components from U.S. suppliers. For its majority-owned subsidiary, Bollinger Motors, this figure is even higher at 71%. This high domestic content means that component pricing is more susceptible to domestic cost structures rather than broader international market dynamics, which can empower the domestic suppliers Mullen relies upon.

Low Production Volume and Pricing Leverage

The financial results from 2025 clearly illustrate that Mullen Automotive, Inc. is operating at a low production volume relative to established automakers, which severely restricts its ability to negotiate favorable pricing from its suppliers. For instance, the GAAP revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, was reported as $3.18 million, and the revenue for fiscal Q2 2025 reached $5 million. This low revenue base, coupled with the fact that key vehicle production, like the Mullen FIVE RS, was only forecast to begin in December 2025, means Mullen Automotive, Inc. cannot command significant volume discounts. Low volume equals low leverage, defintely.

Key financial indicators suggesting low scale:

• GAAP Revenue (Q ending March 31, 2025): $3.18 million
• GAAP Revenue (Fiscal Q2 2025): $5 million
• Total Fiscal Year 2024 Revenue: $1.1 million
• Mullen FIVE RS Production Start Forecast: December 2025

Internalizing Battery Production to Mitigate Reliance

To combat reliance on external battery pack suppliers, Mullen Automotive, Inc. has made capital investments to bring more production in-house. This strategy is designed to shift power away from third-party pack providers. The company completed the purchase of additional battery line equipment from Nikola Corporation in January 2025, following an initial purchase of battery pack production assets from Romeo Power for approximately $3.5 million in September 2023. The goal is to start production of its own American-made battery packs and solid-state polymers in the second half of 2025 at the Fullerton facility, which will house two high-volume standard battery chemistry lines and R&D lines.

Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of customers

Commercial fleet customers are focused on the bottom line, demanding low total cost of ownership (TCO) and significant incentives to make the switch to electric. For instance, one customer reported seeing measurable savings of over $500 in cost per route each week during EV trials. The suggested Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) for the Mullen THREE Class 3 truck is $68,500.

Government customers benefit from streamlined purchasing channels. Mullen Automotive's Mullen ONE Class 1 EV cargo van and Mullen THREE Class 3 EV cab chassis truck are available through National Auto Fleet Group's (NAFG) Sourcewell contract (#091521-NAF and #060920-NAF). Sourcewell is a cooperative purchasing organization serving over 50,000 member agencies across the U.S. public sector and educational institutions.

The financial appeal for government and fleet buyers is significantly enhanced by stacking incentives on the Mullen THREE truck.

The company's relatively small customer base means individual large or early orders carry substantial weight in the revenue picture. Consider the order from Cashflow on Wheels, which involved 20 Class 3 vehicles. This single order carried a retail value of approximately $1.4 million. For context, Mullen Automotive reported total revenue of $4.01 million in the last twelve months, and $5 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2025.

Customers face low barriers to switching in the commercial EV space, which increases their leverage. This segment is highly competitive, with one analysis covering over 100 eLCV models from key OEMs. In the U.S. market, electric vehicle penetration in Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) was approximately 5% of all LCV sales in 2023.

You see this customer power reflected in the demands for financial relief:

• Cashflow on Wheels order size: 20 units.
• Cashflow on Wheels order value: $1.4 million.
• Mullen Q2 2025 Revenue: $5 million.
• Federal Tax Credit: $7,500 per vehicle.
• HVIP Voucher: Up to $45,000 per Mullen THREE.

Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at a market where the barriers to entry are deceptively high, even if the initial capital outlay for a startup seems manageable. For Mullen Automotive, Inc., the competitive rivalry force is arguably the most intense pressure point right now, late in 2025. Honestly, the landscape is brutal.

The EV market is dominated by giants. Think about Tesla, which still commands massive scale and brand loyalty, or established automakers like Hyundai EV, which have deep pockets and proven global supply chains. Mullen Automotive, even after pivoting its focus, competes directly against these established players, plus a host of other well-funded EV startups that have secured significant venture capital rounds in 2025. This sheer volume of competition means any small gain in market share for Mullen Automotive is incredibly costly.

The financial reality underscores this micro-cap niche status. The reported Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue stands at only $9.34 million USD. To put that in perspective against the industry, compare that to the company's own reported revenue of $5 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, which was a record for them at the time. The cumulative revenue for the six months ending March 31, 2025, was $7.9 million. This low revenue base means Mullen Automotive has minimal pricing power and struggles to absorb the massive marketing and R&D costs required to keep pace.

Investor and customer caution is definitely heightened by the corporate turmoil. The delisting from Nasdaq in October 2025 is a major event. This move, following earlier compliance warnings, signals severe financial distress to potential fleet buyers and partners. When a company moves to over-the-counter (OTC) trading, it immediately suggests a higher risk profile, which directly impacts the perceived reliability of long-term vehicle support and warranty claims.

Here's the quick math on where the company stands relative to its recent operational scale:

The company's strategy of rebadging vehicles, specifically consolidating around Bollinger Motors and rebranding to Bollinger Innovations, Inc. (BINI) in July 2025, limits its unique technological differentiation. While the focus on commercial vehicles like the Bollinger B4 Chassis Cab is a strategic choice, it means Mullen Automotive is relying heavily on the perceived value and technology of an acquired asset rather than proprietary, breakthrough technology developed internally across its entire product line. This approach makes it harder to compete on unique features against rivals who are investing billions into next-generation battery and autonomous systems.

The operational focus, despite the competitive pressure, centers on specific commercial segments:

• Focus on Class 1, Class 3, and Class 4 commercial vehicles.
• Secured an order for 20 Class 3 vehicles from Cashflow on Wheels, valued at approximately $1.4 million.
• Bollinger B4 production began in September 2024.
• Partnership signed with Enpower Greentech Inc. (EGI) for solid-state batteries, production slated for early 2026.
• The company is attempting to leverage government purchasing contracts, such as inclusion on National Auto Fleet Group's Sourcewell contract.

The rivalry is intensified because every sale requires significant effort against better-capitalized competitors.

Finance: review the cash runway based on the Q2 2025 cash spend of $52.4 million for six months against the current OTC trading liquidity by next Tuesday.

Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're looking at the competitive landscape for Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN), and the threat of substitutes is definitely a major factor, especially when you consider the established alternatives to your electric commercial vehicles. It's not just about better EVs; it's about everything else that can haul a load or make a delivery.

Traditional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) commercial vehicles remain a strong, familiar substitute.

Honestly, the incumbent ICE fleet remains a formidable substitute because it's what everyone knows and trusts for immediate deployment. While the initial sticker shock for an EV is a hurdle, the price gap with ICE models has been shrinking. In the US, the price difference between a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) and an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) model fell to just 15% in 2024. This narrowing gap is driven by declining BEV costs and rising ICE prices due to regulation and added features. Still, for a fleet manager, the upfront cost is real; base electric delivery vans in 2025 start around $45,000 before incentives, with top-tier models pushing past $85,000. However, the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) story is starting to favor electric. For a five-year ownership period, the TCO for a battery electric van with a 100-400 mile range is estimated between $69,000 and $92,000, compared to $71,000 for a gasoline van. If you're selling a Class 1 or 3 vehicle, you're competing directly against the established, known quantity of diesel and gasoline workhorses.

Alternative fuel technologies like hydrogen fuel cells pose a long-term commercial threat.

Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) represent a significant, albeit currently smaller, long-term threat, particularly in segments where range and fast refueling are paramount, like heavy-duty transport. The global hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market is estimated at $3.55 billion in 2025. For the North American truck segment, which is relevant to Mullen Automotive's Bollinger B4, the market size was $139.7 million in 2024, but it is projected to grow at a massive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 44.6% through 2034. This high growth rate signals serious investment and development, meaning hydrogen is not a distant concept; it's an actively funded competitor, especially for longer-haul applications where battery weight and charging time are major concerns.

High initial EV purchase price remains a barrier despite significant government incentives.

You know the initial price is the first thing procurement sees, and even with incentives, that barrier is high. The availability of significant government support is crucial for Mullen Automotive to make its pricing competitive. For larger commercial vehicles (over 14,000 lbs GVWR), the US Section 45W Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit offered up to $40,000 per vehicle, but this credit is set to expire for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025. For lighter commercial vehicles, like the Mullen ONE Class 1 van, the federal credit is capped at $7,500. To counter this, state-level incentives are key; for instance, the Mullen THREE Class 3 EV truck can qualify for up to a $45,000 cash voucher through California Air Resources Board's (CARB) HVIP program. The effectiveness of your sales pitch hinges on customers' ability to stack these incentives to bridge the gap between your EV price and the ICE alternative. Here's a quick look at the incentive landscape for commercial buyers:

Non-vehicle logistics solutions (e.g., drones, rail) can substitute for last-mile delivery.

For the last-mile segment, which is a key focus for light commercial vans, you face substitution from aerial and potentially other modes. Drone delivery is moving from pilot programs to commercial reality, directly targeting the high-cost, time-sensitive final leg of delivery. The global last-mile drone delivery market is projected to be worth $564 million in 2025, with North America currently leading adoption. This market is expected to grow to $6.156 billion by 2033. While drones typically handle lighter payloads (the less than 5 kg class held 55.67% of the market share in 2024), their ability to bypass traffic and offer ultra-fast fulfillment means they substitute for the service a van provides, even if they don't substitute the vehicle itself. Rail freight, while not a direct last-mile substitute, competes for the long-haul portion of the supply chain that feeds into last-mile operations, influencing overall demand for medium-duty trucks.

• Last-mile drone market expected to reach $6.156 billion by 2033.
• Drone delivery market CAGR projected at 27.0% from 2025 to 2035.
• Retail and e-commerce is the largest adopter, holding 42.11% of the drone delivery market in 2024.
• Drones offer lower emissions, appealing to green logistics mandates.

Mullen Automotive's Q2 FY2025 revenue, which reached $5 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, shows sales momentum, but this must be sustained against these diverse substitution threats.

Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

High capital requirements for R&D and production act as a significant barrier.

Mullen Automotive, Inc. is seeking $55 million in matching Department of Energy (DOE) funds to support U.S. manufacturing capabilities for battery and pack production. Reports detail project economics analysis covering capital expenditure (CAPEX) for land acquisition, infrastructure, and equipment installation for EV manufacturing plants.

Regulatory hurdles, including U.S. Federal and CARB certifications, slow down new entrants.

Mullen Automotive, Inc.'s commercial EVs meet U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and California Air Resources Board (CARB) certifications. The federal EV tax credit, up to $7,500, is set to expire for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025. For new vehicles to qualify for the 2025 tax credit, 60% of the battery's critical minerals must be extracted or processed within the U.S. or a free-trade agreement country. CARB is proposing state-level incentives to backfill the expiring $7,500 federal credit.

Established automakers can easily expand their existing platforms into Class 1-4 commercial EVs.

The US market for electric vehicles is projected to reach $95.9 billion in revenue in 2025. In Q1 2025, established automakers like Porsche and Toyota reported volume increases of 249% and 196%, respectively.

New entrants could disrupt the market with groundbreaking battery or autonomous technologies.

Mullen Automotive, Inc. announced the additional purchase of battery line equipment from Nikola Corporation to advance U.S. battery assembly and production. In 2024, the volume-weighted industry-average lithium-ion battery pack price was $115 per kilowatt-hour.

Economies of scale are difficult to achieve for new players in this capital-intensive sector.

Electric Light Commercial Vehicles (eLCVs) currently suffer from high capital cost. In 2024, electric buses and commercial EVs in China recorded the lowest volume-weighted average battery pack price at $90/kWh.

New Entrant Barrier Data Comparison

New entrants face significant hurdles, particularly in securing the necessary capital for production facilities and meeting evolving regulatory benchmarks.

• Maximum MSRP for eligible new vans/trucks: $80,000.
• Mullen Automotive, Inc.'s cash spending reduction target: $13 million annually starting February 2025.
• CARB proposed rebate amount to backfill federal credit: $7,500.
• Toyota volume increase in Q1 2025: 196%.
• Mullen Automotive, Inc. Q2 FY2025 GAAP Revenue: $3.18 million.

Finance: model the impact of a $55 million capital raise on Mullen Automotive, Inc.'s Q4 2025 cash runway by next Tuesday.