Riskified Ltd. (RSKD): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking at Riskified Ltd.'s path to hitting that \$341 million revenue midpoint guidance for 2025, and honestly, the Ansoff Matrix lays out exactly where the focus needs to be. As someone who's mapped growth for big players, I see a clear mix here: we're banking on deep market penetration-like fixing that 12% Q3 US revenue dip while leaning on the stability of those top 20 contracts-but the real upside is in the new stuff, like pushing Policy Protect adoption and exploring Agentic Commerce for non-e-commerce fraud. It's a smart play, using the \$325 million cash reserves to fuel both shoring up the core and incubating those next-gen bets; see below for the precise action plan for each quadrant.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

You're looking at how Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) can deepen its hold on its current customer base and markets. This is about getting more revenue from the merchants already using the platform.

The focus on existing merchants shows stability, especially with the 100% renewal rate across the top 20 contracts up for renewal in the first quarter of 2025. Nearly half of those renewals were multi-year agreements, with an end date in 2027. This base provides a solid foundation for penetration efforts.

Market penetration involves driving deeper usage of the core offering. While revenue growth outside the core Chargeback Guarantee product increased by approximately 90% year-over-year in 2024, the core product remains central to existing merchant value. In the third quarter of 2025, growth was seen in specific existing verticals:

• Money Transfer & Payments category: grew approximately 100% year-over-year in Q3 2025.
• Tickets & Travel category: grew 6% during Q3 2025.
• Home category: contracted by approximately 70% in Q3 2025.

Upsell and cross-sell activity was a primary driver for the overall growth in the third quarter of 2025. This momentum is key to increasing the share of wallet within the existing merchant base.

A near-term challenge for market penetration is the performance in the United States. In the third quarter of 2025, revenue in the US declined 12% year-over-year, largely due to the contraction in the home category. Reversing this trend is a direct market penetration goal for the US segment.

To fund expansion efforts and targeted campaigns aimed at existing merchants, Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) ended the third quarter of 2025 with $325 million in cash, deposits, and investments, carrying zero debt.

Here's a snapshot of Riskified Ltd.'s Q3 2025 performance, which frames the current market penetration landscape:

The company expects full-year 2025 revenue guidance between $338 million and $346 million.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how Riskified Ltd. is pushing its existing fraud management platform into new markets and customer segments, which is the essence of Market Development in the Ansoff Matrix. The numbers from 2025 show a clear, aggressive focus on international wins and high-growth verticals.

Deepening penetration in the Money Transfer & Payments vertical is clearly paying off. The momentum here is significant, making it a prime area for continued focus.

• The Money Transfer and Payments category achieved 100% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025.
• Riskified Ltd. is on track to double the absolute dollar revenues in this category for the Full Year 2025 compared to the prior year.
• This acceleration follows an over 90% year-over-year revenue growth rate seen in this category during the first quarter of 2025.

To capitalize on this, the company is using its sales success outside the U.S. to drive this expansion. The data from the second quarter of 2025 shows where the new business is coming from.

The sales efforts are definitely leaning international, as evidenced by the geographic distribution of new wins. This focus is being supported by a major global marketing push.

Riskified Ltd. used the Global Ascend tour to defintely land new international merchants and build brand presence. This event series went global for the first time in 2025, moving beyond its previous exclusive U.S. presence.

• The Ascend 2025 summit spanned six major cities worldwide: New York City, London, Melbourne, Shanghai, Tokyo, and São Paulo.
• The event series was designed to bring regional and sector-specific insights to attendees.
• A key new logo win in the second quarter of 2025 was a fashion retailer headquartered in Japan, landed with multiple products.

Accelerating expansion in 'Other Americas' and Asia-Pacific is a clear action stemming from these results. For instance, the Q3 2025 results highlighted continued diversification with new merchant onboarding across geographies.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Riskified Ltd. is pushing new offerings into its existing merchant base-that's the Product Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. The focus here is clearly on expanding the AI decisioning platform beyond the core Chargeback Guarantee service.

The expansion of the multi-product platform is showing real traction. For the first quarter of 2025, revenue from products outside that core offering surged by approximately 190% year-over-year. This demonstrates that merchants are adopting more of the suite, which includes solutions like Policy Protect and Account Secure. Honestly, this platform growth is the engine for future revenue diversification.

To support this, Riskified Ltd. is investing R&D to keep those machine learning models sharp, aiming for a full-year 2025 non-GAAP gross profit margin target in the 52% to 53.5% range. For context on where they stand, the non-GAAP gross profit margin for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was 50%, and it hit 51% in the third quarter alone. If onboarding new merchants in lower-margin areas pressures the margin, R&D investment is key to driving efficiency back up toward that target.

The push for adoption of Policy Protect, which targets returns and abuse prevention, is part of this broader platform strategy. Similarly, cross-selling Account Secure for login protection is happening within this expanding ecosystem. We see this success reflected in specific verticals too; for instance, the Money Transfer and Payments category saw 100% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025, and it grew over 90% year-over-year in Q1 2025, showing the platform's effectiveness in new use cases.

Here are some key financial data points reflecting the environment for these product investments:

The introduction of new features for omni-channel return and refund abuse prevention is part of the overall platform push. You can see the commitment to the platform through the following strategic achievements:

• Revenue from products outside the core Chargeback Guarantee grew 190% year-over-year in Q1 2025.
• Money Transfer and Payments category revenue growth was 100% year-over-year in Q3 2025.
• The company achieved both the AWS Retail and CPG Competency designations.
• Riskified Ltd. repurchased approximately 5.2 million ordinary shares for about $25.3 million in Q3 2025.
• The company reported $2.1 million in positive Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025.

Finance: Consolidate Q3 2025 operating expense as a percentage of revenue against the Q1 2025 figure by end of next week.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) pushing beyond its core e-commerce fraud prevention to capture new growth areas. This is the Diversification quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix in action, moving into new markets or new product/service areas, or both.

Commercialize Agentic Commerce solutions for AI-driven shopping channels.

Riskified Ltd. has actively deployed tools to secure the emerging Agentic commerce landscape. For instance, early data from the merchant network shows that traffic referred by Large Language Model (LLM) shopping agents was 2.3x more risky compared to standard Google search traffic for one large ticketing merchant. In another instance with an electronics merchant, the LLM-referred traffic showed 1.8x higher risk. The company introduced tools like AI Agent Approve and AI Agent Intelligence to manage this. The partnership with HUMAN Security is designed to leverage both firms' AI platforms to secure this next era of digital commerce, combining HUMAN's visibility with Riskified's expertise in fraud prevention, chargeback protection, and policy abuse prevention. This is a direct move to secure a new channel within the existing e-commerce market, but it sets the stage for broader diversification.

Target new B2B payment fraud use cases with the AI platform.

The expansion into adjacent, high-growth areas is showing tangible results. The Money Transfer & Payments category, which represents a key diversification effort, demonstrated 100% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025. Management stated they are on track to double the absolute dollar revenues in this specific category for the Full Year 2025 compared to the prior year. This success validates the platform's adaptability beyond traditional retail fraud. The platform's ability to handle new markets and verticals with less historical data is a key enabler here.

Explore risk intelligence for non-e-commerce sectors like insurance claims.

While specific revenue figures for non-e-commerce sectors like insurance claims are not yet public, the strategy involves leveraging the core identity and risk intelligence platform across different industries. Riskified Ltd. currently serves merchants across verticals including Payments, Money Transfer & Crypto, Tickets & Travel, Electronics, Home, Fashion & Luxury Goods, General Retail, and Food. The company's Q3 2025 GMV Growth (YoY) was 9%, outpacing the general global e-commerce growth forecast of 6.8%, suggesting success in capturing market share, which is a prerequisite for successful vertical expansion.

Leverage the HUMAN Security partnership to secure the next era of digital commerce.

This collaboration is a strategic move to maintain market leadership as transaction methods evolve. HUMAN Security verifies 20 trillion digital interactions each week, providing telemetry data that bolsters Riskified Ltd.'s risk models. The integration aims to allow merchants to apply consistent trust policies across both human and AI-driven interactions, helping to approve more legitimate AI-driven purchases and reduce false declines. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Riskified Ltd. reported an operating cash inflow of $22.4 million and a Non-GAAP diluted net profit per share of $0.09 for the same period, showing the underlying financial health supporting these strategic investments.

Allocate a portion of the $22 million Adjusted EBITDA midpoint toward new vertical incubation.

Strategic capital deployment is focused on incubating these new opportunities. The plan calls for allocating a portion of the $22 million Adjusted EBITDA midpoint toward these new vertical incubation efforts. For context on profitability, Riskified Ltd. reported an Adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2025. The company's full-year 2025 revenue guidance remains between $338 million and $346 million.

Here's a look at the financial context supporting these diversification moves:

The focus on Agentic Commerce and new categories like Money Transfer & Payments shows a clear path to expand the addressable market beyond the existing e-commerce base. You need to watch the execution on that $22 million allocation, as it's the direct investment in future, non-core revenue streams.

The key areas for monitoring diversification success include:

• Commercializing Agentic Commerce solutions.
• Growth rate in Money Transfer & Payments.
• Successful entry into non-e-commerce risk intelligence.
• The efficiency of R&D spend, which was planned to increase by approximately 20% for 2025.

Finance: draft the Q4 2025 projection for the Money Transfer & Payments segment revenue by next Tuesday.