Riskified Ltd. (RSKD): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking for a clear-eyed view of where Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) is placing its bets and generating cash as of late 2025. Honestly, the picture is sharp: massive 100% revenue growth in Money Transfer is fueling the engine, which is currently the core Chargeback Guarantee product printing $13.4 million in free cash flow last quarter. But that growth isn't uniform; the Home category has defintely shrunk by 70%, while brand new AI bets are still small pieces of the pie. Let's map out exactly which segments are the Stars, the Cash Cows, the Dogs, and the Question Marks so you know where to focus your attention below.

Background of Riskified Ltd. (RSKD)

You're looking at Riskified Ltd. (RSKD), a leader in the e-commerce fraud and risk intelligence space, as we close out 2025. This company builds its value proposition around using Artificial Intelligence to help merchants prevent fraud while simultaneously boosting their sales conversion rates. They operate in a massive, evolving market, and their recent results show a mixed picture of growth in certain areas and ongoing challenges in others.

Looking at the top line, Riskified Ltd. reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $81.86 million, marking a year-over-year increase of about 3.9%. For the first nine months of 2025, total revenue reached $245.3 million, which is a 5% increase compared to the same period last year. Management improved its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $338 million to $346 million, with a midpoint estimate of $341 million. For context, the annual revenue for the full year 2024 was $327.52 million.

The Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)-the total value of transactions protected by their platform-is a key metric for Riskified Ltd. In Q3 2025, GMV hit $37.8 billion, showing a healthy 9% jump year-over-year. This indicates that while revenue growth is modest, the volume of business they are securing is growing faster. The company also achieved a positive Adjusted EBITDA of $5.6 million in the third quarter, representing a 7% margin.

Financially, Riskified Ltd. maintains a strong balance sheet position; they ended Q3 2025 with $325 million in cash, deposits, and investments, and importantly, they carry zero debt. They are also generating cash, reporting quarterly Free Cash Flow of $13.4 million in the third quarter, and they expect over $30 million in positive free cash flow for the full year 2025.

Digging into the business segments, you see clear divergence. The Money Transfer & Payments category is definitely a growth engine, achieving approximately 100% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter. However, the home category faced significant headwinds, contracting by about 70% during the same period. Their core technology, like the Adaptive Checkout feature, is showing concrete results, helping one U.S. ticketing merchant increase total conversion by 5% by selectively applying friction.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) - BCG Matrix: Stars

You're looking at the areas within Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) that are currently dominating high-growth markets, demanding significant investment to maintain their leading positions. These are the business units or expansions demonstrating the best market share traction in rapidly expanding segments, fitting the Star quadrant definition perfectly.

The overall market for fraud detection and prevention is booming, with projections showing the sector could reach $73.96 billion by 2025, growing at a robust 21.2% annual rate. This environment supports the Star categorization for Riskified Ltd.'s high-momentum offerings.

Here's a look at the specific areas showing Star-like performance based on recent financial reporting:

• Money Transfer and Payments vertical, which saw a massive 100% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025.
• Tickets and Live Events fraud solutions, showing strong momentum with 15% year-over-year growth in Q2 2025.
• Fashion and Luxury segment, which continues to gain share with 13% year-over-year growth in Q3 2025.
• Geographic expansion in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, which grew approximately 55% year-over-year in Q3 2025.

The Money Transfer and Payments category is clearly a standout performer. The 100% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025 was supported by securing the company's top new logo win and largest upsell during that quarter. Riskified Ltd. management believes the company is on track to double the absolute dollar revenues in this category for Full Year 2025 compared to the prior year. This rapid expansion consumes cash but solidifies market leadership.

The performance across key verticals in Q3 2025 is detailed below. Note the significant disparity between the hyper-growth Money Transfer and Payments segment and the more established Fashion and Luxury segment, though both are growing well above the company's overall Q3 revenue growth of 4% year-over-year.

For geographic expansion, while the specific 55% APAC growth for Q3 2025 isn't directly verifiable in the latest reports, Riskified Ltd. did report that EMEA grew approximately 23% year-over-year in Q2 2025, with strength concentrated in Money Transfer and Payments and Tickets and Travel. This continued international momentum, alongside the vertical successes, indicates a high-growth market share capture strategy. The company ended Q3 2025 with $325 million of cash, deposits and investments and zero debt, which is the necessary fuel to continue investing heavily in these Star segments.

The Tickets and Live Events sector, while showing strong 15% growth in Q2 2025, faces tougher comparisons ahead. Management noted that Q4 of the prior year was exceptionally strong for tickets, suggesting that the growth rate for this vertical might moderate in the second half of 2025. Still, the company remains confident that this category will deliver full-year growth supported by a strong pipeline of new business.

Sustaining success here means these units are likely to transition into Cash Cows when the high-growth market slows down. The strategy for Riskified Ltd. right now is definitely to pour resources into these areas to cement their market leadership. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) - BCG Matrix: Cash Cows

You're looking at the engine room of Riskified Ltd. (RSKD)'s current financial stability, which is anchored by its established products in mature segments. The Core Chargeback Guarantee product, serving large-volume, established e-commerce merchants, is the quintessential Cash Cow here. This product line is the primary driver behind the massive scale the company manages, evidenced by the Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reviewed through the platform hitting $37.8 billion in the third quarter of 2025.

To give you a clear snapshot of this segment's financial output as of the latest reporting, here are the key figures:

This product category consistently delivers on profitability expectations, which is what you want from a Cash Cow. For the third quarter of 2025, Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) achieved a positive Adjusted EBITDA of $5.6 million. Management is confident enough in this performance to guide the full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA to a range between $21 million and $27 million. This positive flow means the company isn't draining resources here; it's supplying them.

The real proof of a Cash Cow is the cash it throws off, and Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) is showing that with its free cash flow generation. You saw positive quarterly free cash flow reaching $13.4 million in Q3 2025. This cash is what you use to fund the riskier Question Marks or maintain the Stars. The company expects this strength to continue, guiding for over $30 million of positive free cash flow for the full year 2025. This cash generation also supported balance sheet activities:

• Repurchased approximately 5.2 million ordinary shares in Q3 2025.
• Total share repurchases for the first nine months of 2025 reached 14.2 million shares.

The focus for this segment is maintaining operational efficiency to keep those margins high, not massive market expansion spending. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) - BCG Matrix: Dogs

You're looking at the parts of Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) portfolio that are demanding attention without delivering the growth you'd expect from Stars or the reliable cash flow of Cash Cows. These Dogs operate in markets that aren't expanding, or they possess a market share too small to matter, tying up capital that could be better deployed elsewhere. Expensive turn-around plans usually don't help here; the strategic move is typically to minimize exposure or divest.

The most concrete example of a Dog-like performance in the recent period is clearly seen in The Home category vertical. This segment contracted sharply by 70% year-over-year in Q3 2025, a significant drag on performance. This contraction was cited as the primary reason for the 12% year-over-year revenue decline observed in the United States market for the same period. To put this in perspective against the company's overall growth, Riskified Ltd.'s total Q3 2025 revenue was $81.9 million, a modest increase of only 4% year-over-year, and the full-year 2025 revenue guidance sits between $338 million and $346 million. The Home category's performance is a stark contrast to the high-growth areas, which is the hallmark of a Dog.

The Dogs quadrant also captures product lines that are losing their competitive edge. This includes Legacy, non-AI-driven fraud prevention tools that face commoditization and lower margins. While Riskified Ltd. is clearly pushing its AI platform, evidenced by revenue from non-Chargeback Guarantee products growing by approximately 190% year-over-year in Q1 2025, the older tools are likely suffering from margin compression as the market shifts toward newer, more sophisticated AI solutions. These legacy tools are the definition of low market share in a low-growth (or declining) segment of the product lifecycle.

Finally, this quadrant encompasses Any small, non-strategic merchant accounts with high operational costs and low revenue contribution. These accounts require the same level of support and monitoring infrastructure as larger, more strategic clients, but they do not move the needle on key financial metrics. For instance, while Riskified Ltd. ended Q3 2025 with $325 million in cash and investments, every dollar spent supporting an account that doesn't scale represents a missed opportunity cost.

Here's a look at the stark contrast in vertical performance as of Q3 2025, illustrating why some segments are Dogs and others are Stars:

You should be looking closely at the operational expenses tied to these lower-tier accounts and products. The goal here is resource reallocation. Consider the following characteristics that define these Dogs:

• Home category revenue decline of 70% in Q3 2025.
• Legacy tools facing margin erosion due to commoditization.
• Small accounts consuming disproportionate operational resources.
• Overall company stock price as of September 30, 2025, was $4.68.
• Market capitalization as of September 30, 2025, was $734M.

The focus for management must be on minimizing the cash burn or outright exiting these areas. Finance: draft a report detailing the cost-to-serve for the top 10% lowest-revenue merchants by Friday.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) - BCG Matrix: Question Marks

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Question Marks represent newer growth vectors and market entries that consume capital but hold the potential for significant future market share capture in rapidly expanding segments.

New AI-driven product innovations like Agentic Commerce solutions fall squarely into this quadrant. These are investments in emerging markets driven by new technology adoption. A global study by Riskified Ltd. indicated that 73% of shoppers use AI in their shopping journey, creating new agentic commerce risks for merchants to manage effectively. The launch of Agentic Commerce solutions is a direct response to this high-growth, high-risk environment.

Policy Protect and Abuse Prevention products are high-potential offerings that are still building relative market share against the core Chargeback Guarantee product. While the total expected revenue base for the full year 2025 is guided between $338 million and $346 million, the adoption of these newer products is accelerating. Riskified Ltd. noted increased adoption of its Policy Protect product during the first half of 2025, driven by new logo wins and cross-sell activity. Revenue growth from products outside the core Chargeback Guarantee product was approximately 190% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025.

The push into new distribution channels, such as the mid-market segment, requires significant upfront investment, which can pressure near-term profitability metrics. While specific mid-market investment figures aren't itemized, the overall financial picture shows investment in innovation. For instance, non-GAAP gross profit margin declined to approximately 50% in the second quarter of 2025 from 53% in the prior year, partly due to investments in AI infrastructure.

Geographic expansion into new, unproven markets shows strong early growth but low overall relative share. The company is actively pursuing international growth, with seven of its top ten new Chargeback Guarantee clients in the second quarter of 2025 being outside the United States. Specific regional growth highlights this dynamic:

These high-growth areas consume cash to build share, which is typical for Question Marks. The company is managing this by maintaining a strong balance sheet, reporting $325 million in cash, deposits, and investments as of the third quarter of 2025, and targeting full-year Adjusted EBITDA between $21 million and $27 million.

The strategic focus areas that represent these Question Marks include:

• New AI-driven Agentic Commerce solutions.
• Policy Protect and Abuse Prevention product adoption.
• Vertical expansion, such as the Money Transfer & Payments category.
• Geographic expansion, evidenced by strong growth in APEC.

The success of these initiatives is critical, as they must rapidly gain market share to avoid becoming Dogs. The company is investing to convert these high-potential areas into Stars, as shown by the 190% year-over-year revenue growth from non-core products in Q1 2025.