Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're staring down that $\text{AR\$50.3 billion}$ net loss for Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) from Q3 2025, and honestly, hoping for a quick fix isn't a strategy. As someone who has mapped out bank turnarounds for two decades, I see this moment not as a crisis, but as a clear inflection point demanding precise action. We need to move past the $\text{95.8\%}$ efficiency ratio and the projected $\text{4.7\%}$ to $\text{5.1\%}$ Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio with a concrete plan. Below, I've broken down exactly how Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) can pivot using the Ansoff Matrix-from aggressively capturing more payroll deposits to exploring a specialized fintech acquisition-giving you four distinct, actionable paths back to solid ground. See the next steps here.

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

Market Penetration for Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) centers on deepening relationships within the existing customer base and capturing greater wallet share in current markets, using recent product successes and operational improvements as leverage.

Aggressively market the Remunerated Account to capture more payroll and SME deposits.

The strategy to capture more payroll and SME deposits through the remunerated account is showing traction based on Q2 2025 figures. AR\$ savings accounts grew 13% sequentially, with payroll account balances specifically increasing by 27%. For the SME segment, checking account balances saw a rise of 14% in pesos and 43% in dollars during the same period. This product is clearly helping deepen primary banking relationships, a key goal for market penetration.

Focus corporate lending to drive the projected 35% to 40% real loan growth for FY 2025.

The drive for market share in lending is explicitly tied to the corporate segment to meet the ambitious full-year target. Grupo Supervielle forecasts real loan growth between 35% to 40% for the full year 2025. This growth is being led by corporate lending, which saw an 8% real-term increase in Q3 2025. In the prior quarter (Q2 2025), corporate loans were a strong driver, increasing 23% quarter-over-quarter. Total loans in Q2 2025 increased 14.0% quarter-over-quarter in real terms.

Leverage the SuperApp to cross-sell insurance and IOL brokerage to the 1.3 million customer base.

The existing customer base of 1.3 million active customers represents a significant pool for cross-selling non-banking products through the SuperApp ecosystem. The company is focused on leveraging its omnichannel strategy to offer a wider array of services.

Here are the key metrics related to the insurance and investment arms that are targets for cross-selling:

The company also provides access to investment opportunities through IOL invertironline, Argentina's leading digital retail brokerage platform.

Optimize digital channels to lower the Q3 2025 efficiency ratio of 95.8%.

Operational efficiency is a direct focus for market penetration success, as lower costs allow for more competitive pricing or higher investment in growth initiatives. The efficiency ratio for Q3 2025 stood at 95.8%. Management is focused on disciplined cost management, as evidenced by operating expenses declining 2% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-to-date in real terms for Q3 2025. The goal is to bring this ratio down from the reported 95.8% level.

Increase retail credit card usage by offering more exclusive, high-value installment plans.

While specific credit card usage numbers aren't immediately available, the strategy involves stimulating retail demand, which has recently been cautious. Retail loan portfolio declined slightly in Q3 2025 due to the implementation of additional more stringent underwriting policies. The plan to increase usage via exclusive, high-value installment plans is designed to re-engage this segment as disposable income improves, supporting the overall 35% to 40% real loan growth forecast for 2025.

You're looking to drive volume in existing segments, so the focus is on product adoption and cost control. Finance: draft the Q4 2025 cost-to-income projection by next Tuesday.

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how Grupo Supervielle S.A. is pushing its existing financial products into new geographic or industry segments. This is Market Development in action, focusing on expanding reach rather than changing what you sell.

The strategy centers on specific, targeted geographic and sector expansion, supported by new international funding lines. For instance, the commitment to the energy sector is now formalized with a new physical presence.

• Open a new branch annex in Añelo, Province of Neuquén, on September 26, 2025, specifically to support the Oil & Gas industry value chain.
• This move builds on the Bank's active presence in Neuquén since 2018 and the prior opening of a mobile branch in Añelo in 2022.
• Grupo Supervielle utilizes its dedicated +Energía business unit, which has technical expertise, to offer specialized corporate credit solutions to oil, gas companies, and their suppliers.

A major enabler for expanding the core SME lending business into new markets is the recently secured funding.

The expansion of US dollar-denominated products is a key focus, aiming to capture funds from Argentine expatriates. These products showed significant traction domestically.

• US dollar-denominated deposits reached record levels as of Q3 2025, showing a 56% year-over-year increase.
• For context on the scale of dollar deposits, in Q2 2025, foreign currency deposits totaled US$953.2 million, up 153.8% YoY.

On the digital front, the brokerage platform, Invertironline (IOL), is the vehicle for reaching new, digitally-native clients in other South American markets. This platform is already a significant part of the Group's digital footprint.

The IOL platform saw its active client base increase by 4% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter of 2025. The overall Group reported 24K IOL customers in one data point, and 544K digital customers for the Bank in another, showing the scale of the digital ecosystem you are expanding from. The goal here is to take that digital reach beyond Argentina's borders.

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Grupo Supervielle S.A. can build new revenue streams by developing products for its existing customer base. This is about deepening the wallet share, which is critical when the macro environment is still showing stress, like the 3.9% Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio reported in the third quarter of 2025.

Mitigating Credit Risk with New Offerings

The immediate action here is to counter the expected asset quality deterioration. Management has reset guidance for the full year 2025 NPL ratio to land between 4.7% and 5.1%, with the net cost of risk projected between 5.8% and 6.3%. To mitigate this, launching a new suite of secured credit products, perhaps those explicitly backed by government guarantees, directly addresses the risk profile. This focus on quality lending is already showing in the loan book, which grew 8% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, though corporate loans led that charge, growing 12%.

Enhancing Digital Advisory with AI

Your Supervielle SuperApp is already recognized as a benchmark in digital innovation, enhanced with Generative AI on WhatsApp. This platform, which serves 2 million active clients across its ecosystem, is the perfect vehicle for personalized wealth management tools. The goal is to move beyond basic transactions, leveraging the existing AI capabilities to offer tailored advice, especially as post-election liquidity returns. The bank is focused on scaling this SuperApp and expanding cross-sell opportunities.

E-commerce Financing Expansion

The expansion of the e-commerce platform, which includes an official store on Mercado Libre, needs a strong hook. While specific 18-month interest-free plans aren't detailed in the latest filings, the strategy is to deepen engagement through this channel. The broader deposit base is strong, growing 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, providing the funding for such long-term commitments. Foreign currency deposits are a significant part of this funding, totaling US$1.2 billion and representing 34% of total deposits at the end of Q3 2025.

Targeting Returning Liquidity via IOL

With deposits showing strong momentum, attracting returning liquidity through investment products is key. Your subsidiary, IOL invertironline, is a specialized online trading broker with 544K customers. The fact that IOL posted record results in October shows the appetite for investment products when market sentiment shifts. Developing a high-yield, short-term mutual fund product through IOL directly targets this post-election inflow, aiming to capture funds that might otherwise sit in lower-yielding accounts. The bank's total deposits reached AR$5,059.8 billion in Q3 2025.

New Digital Account for Younger Segments

To capture the next generation of clients, a digital-only checking account is a natural fit for the ongoing cultural and digital transformation. This product would integrate micro-investment features, feeding directly into the ecosystem that already includes investment services. The bank is working to evolve its omnichannel model, which includes its digital channels and virtual branches, to serve its customer base effectively.

Here's a quick look at the context supporting these product moves:

The bank confirmed continued investment in strategic initiatives, scaling the SuperApp, and expanding cross-sell opportunities.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at Diversification, which means Grupo Supervielle S.A. is moving into new markets or new business lines entirely. This is the highest-risk quadrant, but it's where you find the biggest potential for non-Argentine-peso-linked revenue streams, which is critical given the domestic volatility.

The current strategic pivot is heavily weighted toward Market Development and Product Development-growing loans domestically, for instance. As of June 30, 2025, Total Net Loans were AR$2,871.5 billion, growing 13.3% quarter-over-quarter, outpacing the industry's 11.2% growth. However, the environment shifted, and by the third quarter (3Q25), the real loan book growth slowed to 8% quarter-over-quarter, with the NPL ratio rising to 3.9%. This domestic credit risk profile makes international or non-financial diversification more attractive.

Here are the key financial metrics that frame the risk/reward of any new venture:

The existing digital footprint, which is a foundation for new digital diversification, shows mixed results. While the bank is scaling its SuperApp, Digital Customers represented only 3% of the 1.3 million total bank customers in one report, though another suggests 67% digital customers. You'll need to reconcile that gap for a clear view of digital adoption.

Consider these specific diversification vectors:

• Acquire a small, established fintech in a more stable Latin American market (e.g., Uruguay) to launch a new digital bank brand.
• Develop a specialized trade finance and foreign exchange product suite for Argentine companies expanding into US or European markets.
• Launch a new, non-financial B2B service, like a digital supply chain management platform, for corporate clients.
• Invest in a regional digital payments network to offer proprietary, low-cost cross-border transfer services.

For the first point, you already own IOL Holding S.A., which controls IOL invertironline, a Uruguayan company. This existing regional presence is a clear advantage for a soft launch into a new market, potentially bypassing the need for a full acquisition if a strategic partnership is pursued instead. The focus on trade finance directly addresses the strong foreign currency activity; USD deposits grew 31% sequentially in 3Q25, representing 34% of total deposits at quarter-end, up from 27% in 2Q25. This signals high client demand for FX services that a specialized product suite could capture, especially as commercial loans grew 23% quarter-over-quarter in 2Q25.

The push into non-financial B2B services aligns with the launch of the Remunerated Account in April 2025 and the Tienda Supervielle on Mercado Libre in May 2025, showing a commitment to expanding the ecosystem beyond core banking products. This is about capturing non-interest income from adjacent services. The final point, investing in payments, is a hedge against margin compression; the NIM fell to 10.8% in 3Q25, partly due to high funding costs, so proprietary, low-cost transfer services offer a structural way to improve fee income.

Finance: draft a pro-forma P&L impact for a US$250 million trade finance credit line, referencing the IDB Invest agreement announced in September 2025, by Monday.