Breaking Down Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

You're looking at Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) and trying to figure out if their strong headline numbers in 2025 are a signal or just noise from the volatile Argentine market. The direct takeaway is this: the bank is executing a clear strategic shift, but you defintely need to look past the Q2 2025 EPS miss of $0.14 against a $0.22 consensus to see the real story. The company's total assets hit $5.00 Billion USD as of June 2025, reflecting a deliberate pivot toward a loan-centric balance sheet, which drove total assets up by a solid 29.9% Year-over-Year. Here's the quick math: that strategic focus is working, with retail loan growth soaring by an incredible 130% Year-over-Year, helping push Q2 2025 net income to AR$13.6 billion, a jump of 62% sequentially. Still, you need to weigh that against the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio sitting at 2.7%, which is a manageable risk given their projected 40-50% real loan growth for the full year.

Revenue Analysis

You're looking at Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) because you need to know if the recent volatility is a short-term blip or a structural issue. The direct takeaway is that while the trailing year shows a sharp revenue contraction, the core banking business is showing resilience and a strategic shift toward credit is underway.

The company's Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue as of June 30, 2025, stood at ARS 752.12 billion. The headline number, however, is the year-over-year TTM revenue decline of -32.76%. That's a massive drop, but you have to remember that this is an Argentine universal financial services group, so you must factor in the country's hyperinflation accounting (IAS 29) and the macroeconomic environment.

Here's the quick math: The second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) revenue was ARS 196.42 billion, which was a -16.77% decrease year-over-year. Still, the sequential (Quarter-over-Quarter, or QoQ) performance in the core business shows a positive trend, suggesting a bottoming out. That's the nuance the market often misses.

The primary revenue sources for Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) are split across a universal financial services model, but the key drivers are Net Financial Income and Net Fee Income. The company's segments include Personal & Business Banking, Corporate Banking, Bank Treasury, Consumer Finance, Insurance, and Asset Management and Other Services.

• Client Net Financial Income: Up 10.3% QoQ in 2Q25, supported by stronger spreads and higher loan volumes. This is the engine.
• Market-related Net Financial Income: Up 14.8% QoQ in 2Q25, as treasury bond yields stabilized after a sharp correction. This is the volatile part.
• Fee Income: Increased 3.4% in 1Q25 from the banking business as fees repriced above inflation.

The core banking activity-Client Net Financial Income-is what you want to see growing, and it is. In 2Q25, Net Financial Income reached ARS 207.4 billion, an 11.5% QoQ increase, which is a solid sign of operational momentum.

The most significant change in the revenue mix is the strategic pivot toward a credit-driven balance sheet. The management is defintely pushing for loan growth, and it's working. Total Net Loans reached ARS 2,871.5 billion as of June 30, 2025, increasing 131.1% since March 31, 2024, significantly outpacing the industry's growth. This loan growth, especially in retail lending which accounted for 48% of total loans in late 2024, is the foundation for future client Net Financial Income.

What this estimate hides is the impact of the volatile Market-related Net Financial Income, which saw a decline in 1Q25 due to lower yields on government securities. This is the risk you take when investing in this region. Still, analysts are forecasting future annual revenue growth of 22.7% per year, betting on this strategic shift and a stabilizing economy. For more on the long-term view, you can review the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV).

To summarize the segment contributions and trends:

Your action here should be to track the next quarterly report's Client Net Financial Income growth. Finance: calculate the QoQ growth rate for Client NFI for Q3 2025 immediately upon release.

Profitability Metrics

You're looking for a clear signal on whether Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) is turning its revenue into real profit, and the 2025 numbers show a mixed, but improving, sequential picture that still lags the broader Argentine banking system. The short answer is that while the second quarter of 2025 saw a strong rebound in net income, the overall trailing twelve-month (TTM) margins are thinner than last year, suggesting a tough operating environment.

Gross, Operating, and Net Margins

For a financial institution like Grupo Supervielle S.A., we look at Net Interest Margin (NIM) as the core 'gross' profitability measure-what they earn from lending versus what they pay for deposits. In 2Q25, the NIM improved sequentially to 20.8%, up from 19.2% in 1Q25, which is a solid sign of widening spreads on their loan book.

The Net Profit Margin (net income as a percentage of revenue) for the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2025, stood at 6.2%. Here's the quick math: TTM Net Income of AR$46.58 billion divided by TTM Revenue of AR$752.12 billion. This is a sharp drop from the prior year's margin of 16.4%, indicating that rising costs and loan loss provisions have been eating into the top-line growth.

• Net Income (2Q25): AR$13.6 billion
• Net Profit Margin (TTM Jun 2025): 6.2%
• Net Interest Margin (2Q25): 20.8%

Operational Efficiency and Industry Comparison

Operational efficiency is key in banking, and we track it with the Efficiency Ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of total revenues). Grupo Supervielle S.A.'s efficiency ratio was 60.9% in 2Q25, a slight deterioration from 59.6% in 1Q25. This means that for every dollar of revenue, nearly 61 cents went to operating expenses, which is a headwind to profitability, even with management citing structural cost savings.

When you compare the company's Return on Average Assets (ROAA) and Return on Average Equity (ROAE) to the industry, the gap becomes clear. The Argentine financial system's average ROA was around 4% for the 12 months leading up to February 2025. Grupo Supervielle S.A.'s ROAA in 2Q25 was only 1.0%. That's a significant underperformance, and it tells you the company is generating less profit from its asset base than its peers.

Profitability Trends and Action

The trend shows volatility but a recent sequential recovery. Net income jumped 62% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) from 1Q25 to 2Q25, reaching AR$13.6 billion, driven by higher Net Financial Income and stabilizing treasury yields. Still, the ROAE of 5.8% in 2Q25 is far from the system average, and even further from the company's own 2026 target of 15% to 20%. This suggests the market is pricing in a high degree of economic and regulatory risk in Argentina, which suppresses profitability. You can dive deeper into the market's view by Exploring Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

The key risk here is the increase in Loan Loss Provisions (LLPs), which rose 31.8% QoQ in 2Q25, in line with loan growth and the expected seasoning of the retail portfolio. This is the cost of their aggressive loan expansion, and it's defintely a watch item. The next concrete step is to monitor the Q3 2025 earnings report, expected in late November 2025, for a sustained reduction in the Efficiency Ratio and a further improvement in ROAA toward the peer average.

Debt vs. Equity Structure

You need to know how Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) funds its growth, and the quick answer is that it relies heavily on client deposits, which are a form of liability, but its formal debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio is quite conservative. This structure gives them a solid capital base to navigate the Argentine market's volatility, but it also means their primary leverage metric is high, as is typical for a bank.

A Look at the Debt Load: Short-Term vs. Long-Term

As of the second quarter of 2025, Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) reported a total debt of approximately $429.53 million. This debt is strategically split, showing a clear preference for longer-term stability. Here's the quick math on the breakdown:

• Long-Term Debt: Approximately $303.0 million.
• Short-Term Debt: Approximately $126.53 million.

The long-term portion makes up about 70% of the total debt, which is a healthy sign. It means less pressure on near-term liquidity, allowing the company to focus capital on lending and its strategic shift toward a more credit-driven balance sheet. You defintely want to see long-term funding supporting long-term assets like loans.

Debt-to-Equity and True Leverage

The standard Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio for Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) sits at about 0.38. To be fair, for a non-financial company, a D/E below 1.0 is fantastic, but for a bank, this ratio is less telling because customer deposits-the bank's main funding source-are counted as liabilities, but they are operationally different from a corporate bond.

A more relevant metric for a bank is the Assets to Shareholders' Equity ratio, which shows the true leverage (how many assets are funded by non-equity capital). As of June 30, 2025, this leverage ratio increased to 6.5x. This is a high leverage level compared to a typical industrial company, but it is well below the 8x level the company reached back in 2018, underscoring that management has been building ample balance sheet capacity to support future loan growth. This is the real story on their balance sheet strength.

Financing Strategy: Corporate Notes and Equity

The company's strategy is clearly to balance its deposit funding with longer-term, more stable debt. In the second quarter of 2025, the bank saw longer-tenor funding from corporate notes grow by a significant 52.4% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), or AR$123.8 billion, which directly supported the increase in its loan portfolio. This is a deliberate move to diversify funding away from just deposits, which can be volatile in Argentina.

The balance is struck by using equity (retained earnings and capital) to absorb risk, while debt, particularly deposits and corporate notes, fuels the core lending operations. This approach is key to understanding the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV). The company is actively raising long-term funding to match its push into higher-margin retail and corporate lending, validating its strategic shift.

Liquidity and Solvency

When you look at Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV), the core question is whether they can meet their short-term obligations, and the answer is a qualified yes, but the balance sheet is changing fast. The bank is deliberately shifting its asset mix, which affects liquidity, but its funding base is holding up well. We need to look past the standard Current and Quick Ratios, which are less meaningful for a bank, and focus on the Loans to Deposits Ratio and funding stability.

The most telling metric for a bank's liquidity is the Loans to Deposits Ratio. As of Q2 2025, Grupo Supervielle S.A.'s ratio stood at 71.7%. This is up from 59.5% a year ago, reflecting the strategic pivot toward a more credit-driven balance sheet. A higher ratio means more of the bank's funding (deposits) is tied up in less-liquid loans. To be fair, this ratio is still manageable, but it's a trend to watch. The bank's Total Assets reached AR$6,034.3 billion as of June 30, 2025, a significant growth from the end of 2024. That's a strong base.

Working Capital and Asset Mix Trends

The working capital story here is all about a strategic re-allocation of assets. Grupo Supervielle S.A. is actively moving capital out of its investment portfolio and into higher-yielding private-sector loans. Here's the quick math: Net Loans increased by 13.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to AR$2,871.5 billion in Q2 2025, while the investment portfolio declined by 11.9% QoQ. This move is designed to boost net interest income, but it does trade a highly liquid asset (investments) for a less-liquid one (loans). This is a calculated risk in a high-inflation environment, and it is defintely a key driver of their near-term performance.

• Loans are up, investments are down.
• Total Deposits are strong at AR$4,157.4 billion.
• The asset shift is a deliberate, profitable trade-off.

Cash Flow Statement Overview

The cash flow picture is dominated by the financing and investing activities tied to this strategic shift. The bank is successfully attracting a stable funding base, which directly supports the loan growth. US dollar deposits, a critical measure of stability in the Argentine market, reached record levels, increasing by 16% QoQ and a massive 154% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2025. Plus, longer-tenor funding from corporate notes grew 52.4% QoQ, which is a great sign of confidence from institutional investors. This strong inflow of cash from financing activities is what makes the aggressive loan growth (an investing/operating outflow) sustainable right now. Any disruption to this deposit growth would be a major problem.

Potential Liquidity Concerns and Strengths

The primary strength is the bank's ability to attract and retain stable funding, especially in US dollars. This provides a crucial liquidity buffer against market volatility. However, the higher utilization of deposits for lending does introduce a near-term risk. Management expects the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio to rise to a range of 3.0% to 3.5% by year-end 2025, up from prior expectations. An NPL ratio in this range is manageable, but it means more capital will be tied up in provisions (Expected Credit Loss models), which pressures operating cash flow. The key action for investors is to monitor the NPL ratio in the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings report. For a more detailed look at the full financial picture, check out our deep dive: Breaking Down Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Valuation Analysis

You're looking at Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) and asking the core question: Is this stock a value play right now, or is the market getting ahead of itself? My take, looking at the Q3 2025 data, is that the stock is currently trading in a 'wait-and-see' range, which analysts are calling a Hold, but with significant volatility and a wide range of price targets.

As of mid-November 2025, the stock price sits near $10.78 per share. The valuation multiples tell a mixed story. On the surface, the trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is around 16.38, which is not outrageously high for a financial institution, but it's above the historical median for the company. The forward P/E, which is based on future earnings estimates, drops to a more attractive range, with some estimates as low as 7.16. This suggests the market is pricing in a significant expected jump in earnings, a bet on Argentina's economic stabilization.

Is Grupo Supervielle S.A. Overvalued or Undervalued?

The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is a better metric for banks, as it compares the stock price to the company's book value per share. For Grupo Supervielle S.A., the P/B ratio is approximately 1.38x based on the June 2025 book value per share of $8.98. A P/B above 1.0x means the market values the company higher than its net tangible assets, which is typical for a bank expected to grow its return on equity (ROE). What this estimate hides is the inherent risk of asset quality in an emerging market, which can quickly erode book value.

• P/E Ratio (TTM): 16.38x (Signaling a premium to some peers, but a discount to historical highs).
• P/B Ratio (TTM): 1.38x (Suggests investors are willing to pay a premium over net assets).
• EV/EBITDA: Not a primary or readily available metric for banks, as their value is driven by financial assets and liabilities, not operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

The stock has seen a wild ride over the last 12 months, which is defintely a key risk factor. While the stock is up about 10.65% over the past year, the year-to-date (YTD) return is actually down -23.99%. The 52-week range of $4.54 to $19.75 shows extreme volatility-you've seen a 335% swing from low to high. You must factor that level of market uncertainty into your risk model.

Here's the quick math on the dividend: The company paid a dividend of $0.19 per share with a yield of about 1.74% in May 2025. For an emerging market bank, this yield is modest, but it provides a small buffer for investors. The payout ratio is not explicitly stated, but it's a small fraction of the estimated future earnings, indicating the company is retaining capital for growth, which is smart given the credit expansion projected for 2025.

The analyst community is split, which is why the average recommendation is a cautious Hold from the five firms covering the stock. The average 12-month target price is $14.67, implying a significant upside from the current price. Still, recent actions show a lack of consensus: in November 2025, UBS initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $13.00 target, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded the stock to Underweight with a much lower $5.00 target. This wide range-a spread of over 160%-tells you that the valuation is highly dependent on Argentina's political and economic trajectory, not just the bank's operational performance. If you want to dive deeper into these risks, check out the full post: Breaking Down Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Risk Factors

You're looking at Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) and asking the right question: what are the real cracks in the foundation? The direct takeaway is that while the company is executing a profitable strategic shift toward lending, that move is increasing its exposure to domestic economic volatility and credit risk, which is already showing up in their loan book.

As a seasoned financial analyst, I see three primary areas of concern right now: the external macroeconomic environment, a clear deterioration in retail asset quality, and the execution risk of their strategic pivot.

External and Market Volatility: The Argentina Factor

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) is an Argentine financial services group, and you cannot separate its financial health from the country's economic reality. The biggest external risks are the volatility in interest rates and the near-term uncertainty tied to the legislative elections in October 2025.

• Regulatory Change: New government policies or Central Bank actions can quickly change the rules on interest rates, reserve requirements, or foreign exchange (FX) restrictions.
• Interest Rate Risk: High volatility in interest rates can impact customer repayment capacity and the value of the bank's investment portfolio.
• Inflation and Currency: While the company reports using Hyperinflation Accounting (IFRS rule IAS 29) to give a real-terms view, persistent inflation still pressures operating costs and can erode the real value of assets.

The company expects economic growth and credit expansion post-elections, but that's a bet on political stability and structural reforms actually happening. Honestly, that's a big 'if' in this market.

Operational and Financial Risks: Asset Quality Deterioration

The most concrete financial risk is the noticeable dip in asset quality, specifically within the retail loan segment. The bank is aggressively growing its loan book-up 71% year-on-year in real terms as of Q2 2025-but this expansion is coming at a cost.

Here's the quick math on the risk increase:

The rise in Loan Loss Provisions (LLPs) by 32% sequentially to AR$44.5 billion in Q2 2025 is the bank literally setting aside more money to cover expected defaults. This is a necessary buffer, but it eats directly into net income. The retail delinquency rate of 4.5% is a clear sign of stress on the average consumer's ability to repay their debts.

Strategic Risks and Mitigation Actions

The core strategic risk is the speed of their pivot to a credit-driven model. Loans now account for 48% of total assets, up from 23% in December 2023. This shift is great for the Net Interest Margin (NIM), which hit 20.8% in Q2 2025, but it makes the bank inherently riskier. You can't grow loans by 71% in a volatile economy without taking on more risk. That's just a fact.

To be fair, management is not ignoring this. Their mitigation strategy is focused and defintely actionable:

• Tighter Underwriting: They are applying more stringent underwriting criteria for personal loans to slow the asset quality deterioration.
• Prudent Coverage: They maintain a prudent loan loss coverage ratio of 130%.
• Cost Discipline: Operating expenses are projected to decline by 5% to 8% in real terms for the full year 2025, which helps offset higher provisioning costs.
• Capital Buffer: Their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.9% in Q2 2025 is solid and provides a buffer, even with the full-year expectation normalizing to 12% to 13%.

They are trying to balance aggressive growth with risk management, but the rising NPLs show the tightrope walk is getting harder. For a deeper dive into who is betting on this strategy, check out Exploring Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Growth Opportunities

You need to know where Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) is putting its capital to work, and the answer is simple: high-margin retail lending and a defintely aggressive digital push. The direct takeaway is that management is projecting real loan growth of 40-50% for the full 2025 fiscal year, fueled by a strategic pivot that is already showing results, but you must watch asset quality closely as they execute this shift.

The core growth driver is a fundamental rebalancing of the balance sheet, moving away from volatile government securities and towards consumer credit. This pivot means that retail loans now make up over 50% of the total loan portfolio, a significant jump from roughly one-third just a year ago. This is a smart move for profitability, as retail products carry higher yields, but it also means the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio is expected to climb and stabilize between 3.0-3.5% by year-end 2025. That's the trade-off: higher returns for higher risk, which is why management is also overhauling its credit risk models.

Digital Ecosystem and Strategic Partnerships

Grupo Supervielle S.A. is not just relying on traditional banking; they are building a comprehensive digital ecosystem that acts as a serious competitive advantage. This strategy is about product innovation and cross-selling, especially leveraging their online brokerage, IOL invertironline.

• Product Innovation: The launch of remunerated accounts (paying daily interest) is a clear winner, helping AR$ savings accounts grow 13% sequentially in Q2 2025, outpacing the market by 3.5 percentage points.
• Digital Footprint: The bank became the first in Argentina to open an official online store, Tienda Supervielle, on Mercado Libre, which generated 500,000 sessions by June 2025.
• Cross-Sell Synergy: The integration with IOL is a capital magnet; in Q2 2025, over 4,700 IOL clients placed USD 28 million in time deposits at the bank.

Plus, they are integrating Gen AI-powered customer interactions via WhatsApp, which is helping them scale service without ballooning the cost base. This is how you drive efficiency in a high-growth environment. You can read more on the underlying financial stability in our full breakdown: Breaking Down Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

2025 Financial Projections and Earnings Estimates

The company's guidance for the full 2025 fiscal year paints a picture of aggressive expansion paired with cost discipline. Here's the quick math on what they expect to deliver, which underpins the projected +90% increase in Earnings Per Share (EPS) for 2025.

What this estimate hides is the significant volatility of the Argentine market, still, the focus on reducing operating expenses by 5-8% in real terms is a crucial part of the strategy to improve operating leverage. They are cutting costs and driving revenue growth simultaneously. The goal is to get Return on Equity (ROE) up to the 15-20% range by 2026, which shows their confidence in the long-term structural reforms in Argentina.