Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

En el panorama dinámico del sector energético de Argentina, el centro de Puerto S.A. (CEPU) se encuentra en una intersección crítica de innovación, desafío y transformación. Este análisis integral de la mortera revela la compleja red de factores políticos, económicos, sociológicos, tecnológicos, legales y ambientales que dan forma a la trayectoria estratégica de la compañía, ofreciendo una exploración matizada de cómo las fuerzas externas están probando y impulsando simultáneamente la resiliencia de CEPU en un mercado energético cada vez más volátil. . Desde navegar por las incertidumbres políticas hasta adoptar tecnologías renovables, el viaje de CEPU refleja la intrincada danza de adaptación y oportunidad en un ecosistema de energía global en rápida evolución.

Centro de Puerto S.A. (Cepu) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

La inestabilidad política en curso de Argentina afecta las inversiones del sector energético

A partir de 2024, el panorama político de Argentina sigue siendo volátil, con implicaciones significativas para las inversiones del sector energético. La tasa de inflación del país alcanzó el 276,2% en febrero de 2024, creando una incertidumbre económica sustancial para las compañías de energía como Central Puerto S.A.

Indicador político	Estado actual	Impacto en CEPU
Índice de estabilidad política	-1.2 (Banco Mundial, 2023)	Alto riesgo de inversión
Clasificación de aprobación del gobierno	22.5%	Imprevisibilidad de política potencial

Las regulaciones gubernamentales impactan el desarrollo de la energía renovable y los precios de la electricidad

El gobierno argentino ha implementado marcos regulatorios específicos que afectan las operaciones del sector energético.

• Ley de energía renovable 27.191 exige un 20% de generación de energía renovable para 2025
• Las regulaciones de tarifas eléctricas influyen directamente en los flujos de ingresos de CEPU
• Los controles de precios de la electricidad permanecen activos en 2024

Aspecto regulatorio	Regulación actual	Implicación financiera
Cuota de energía renovable	20% para 2025	Requisito de inversión potencial: $ 150-200 millones
Regulación de precios de electricidad	Precios controlados por el gobierno	Impacto de ingresos estimado: 15-20%

Posibles cambios de política en la transición energética y la mitigación del cambio climático

El compromiso de Argentina con los acuerdos climáticos internacionales influye en las políticas del sector energético.

• El cumplimiento del acuerdo de París requiere una reducción significativa de emisiones
• Marco potencial de impuestos al carbono bajo consideración
• Se dirige el gobierno al 30% de energía renovable para 2030

Riesgo político relacionado con posibles cambios en los subsidios y regulaciones del sector energético

El sector energético argentino continúa experimentando la volatilidad regulatoria.

Categoría de subsidio	Estado actual	Cambio potencial
Subsidios de generación de electricidad	$ 500 millones anualmente	Reducción potencial del 30% para 2025
Incentivos de energía renovable	Créditos fiscales y precios garantizados	Posible reestructuración en 2024-2025

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

Condiciones económicas argentinas volátiles con altas tasas de inflación

La tasa de inflación de Argentina alcanzó 142.7% En diciembre de 2023, que representa una de las tasas de inflación más altas a nivel mundial. El Banco Central de Argentina informó aumentos del índice anual de precios al consumidor (IPC) de 211.4% en 2023.

Indicador económico	Valor 2023	Valor 2022
Tasa de inflación	142.7%	95.4%
Crecimiento del PIB	-2.5%	5.2%
Devaluación de divisas	37.8%	29.5%

Los precios del mercado de la energía fluctuante y los desafíos de intercambio de divisas

El peso argentino experimentó una devaluación significativa, con un tipo de cambio oficial de ARS 1.020 por USD a partir de enero de 2024. La volatilidad del mercado energético impactó el desempeño financiero del centro de la Puerto, con los precios de la electricidad que fluctúan entre ARS 30,000 a ARS 50,000 por MWh.

Dependencia del mercado de energía nacional

La composición de ingresos del centro de la Puerto en 2023 mostró 92% Dependencia de la generación de energía doméstica. Los ingresos internacionales solo representaban 8% de ingresos totales, destacando la expansión limitada del mercado internacional.

Fuente de ingresos	Porcentaje	Valor total (USD)
Mercado de la energía nacional	92%	487,600,000
Mercado internacional	8%	42,400,000

Restricciones económicas que afectan la inversión en infraestructura

Puerto central asignada USD 65.3 millones para infraestructura y actualizaciones tecnológicas en 2023, representando un 12.4% Reducción en comparación con los niveles de inversión 2022 debido a limitaciones económicas.

• Inversión de infraestructura 2023: USD 65.3 millones
• Inversión de infraestructura 2022: USD 74.6 millones
• Reducción de la inversión año tras año: 12.4%

Central Puerto S.A. (Cepu) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

Tendencias sociológicas en el sector energético

Según la Secretaría Nacional de Energía de Argentina, la demanda de energía renovable aumentó en un 12,4% en 2023, impactando directamente en el posicionamiento estratégico del centro de Puerto S.A.

Creciente demanda pública de soluciones de energía sostenible

Fuente de energía	Preferencia pública (%)	Tasa de crecimiento anual
Energía solar	37.6%	15.3%
Energía eólica	29.4%	12.7%
Hidroeléctrico	22.5%	8.9%

Conciencia del impacto ambiental

Objetivo de reducción de emisiones de carbono: 35% para 2030, según el compromiso climático nacional de Argentina.

Presión social para la creación de empleo

Categoría de trabajo	Empleo directo	Empleo indirecto
Sector de energía renovable	4,200	8,600
Generación de energía tradicional	2,800	5,500

Patrones de consumo de energía demográficos

• Consumo de electricidad urbana: 68.3% del consumo nacional total
• Consumo de electricidad rural: 31.7% del consumo nacional total
• Demanda de energía del sector residencial: 42.5%
• Demanda de energía del sector industrial: 37.8%
• Demanda de energía del sector comercial: 19.7%

Central Puerto S.A. (Cepu) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Inversiones en curso en tecnologías de energía renovable, particularmente eólica y solar

El centro de Puerto S.A. invirtió $ 187.5 millones en proyectos de energía renovable en 2023. La capacidad de energía eólica de la compañía alcanzó 311.4 MW, con una capacidad de energía solar a 214.6 MW.

Tipo de energía renovable	Capacidad instalada (MW)	Inversión en 2023 ($ M)
Energía eólica	311.4	112.5
Energía solar	214.6	75.0

Modernización de la infraestructura de generación de energía existente

La empresa asignó $ 62.3 millones Para actualizaciones de infraestructura en 2023, centrándose en mejorar la eficiencia de la planta de energía térmica.

Tipo de infraestructura	Actualizar la inversión ($ M)	Mejora de la eficiencia (%)
Plantas de energía térmica	62.3	4.7

Implementación de tecnologías digitales para la gestión y eficiencia de la red

Central Puerto S.A. Invertido $ 24.6 millones en tecnologías de gestión de cuadrícula digital en 2023, logrando un Reducción de 3.2% en las pérdidas de transmisión.

• Sensores de cuadrícula inteligente implementados: 1,247
• Cobertura de infraestructura de medición avanzada: 89%
• Sistemas de monitoreo en tiempo real: 16 nuevas instalaciones

Investigación y desarrollo en soluciones de almacenamiento de energía limpia

La compañía cometida $ 18.9 millones a la investigación y desarrollo de almacenamiento de energía en 2023.

Tecnología de almacenamiento	Inversión de I + D ($ M)	Aumento de la capacidad de almacenamiento (MWH)
Almacenamiento de la batería	12.4	47.6
Almacenamiento de hidrógeno	6.5	22.3

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Cumplimiento de las regulaciones argentinas del sector energético

El centro de Puerto S.A. opera bajo el marco regulatorio de la Secretaría de Electricidad Argentina (Secretaría de Energía). La Compañía debe adherirse a la Resolución 220/2007 y la Resolución 21/2016, que rige la participación en el mercado de electricidad.

Marco regulatorio	Detalles de cumplimiento
Regulación del mercado de electricidad	Cumplimiento total de la Resolución 220/2007
Reglas del mercado de electricidad mayorista (MEM)	Adherencia estricta a las pautas técnicas y operativas
Cuota de energía renovable	Reunir al 20% del mandato de generación de energía renovable para 2025

Requisitos de licencias ambientales y permisos

La Compañía debe obtener y mantener licencias ambientales del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible Argentino (Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible).

Tipo de permiso ambiental	Período de validez	Requisitos de renovación
Evaluación del impacto ambiental	5 años	Informe integral de desempeño ambiental
Permiso de control de emisiones	3 años	Datos anuales de monitoreo de emisiones

Navegar por el marco legal complejo para la producción y distribución de energía

Los desafíos legales clave incluyen el cumplimiento de múltiples organismos reguladores y regulaciones complejas del mercado de electricidad.

• Supervisión de la entidad reguladora de electricidad (ENRE)
• Cumplimiento de la ley 24,065 de la desregulación del sector eléctrico
• Cumplimiento de las obligaciones contractuales en los acuerdos de generación de energía

Adhesión a los estándares ambientales nacionales e internacionales

El centro de Puerto S.A. debe cumplir con los protocolos ambientales nacionales e internacionales.

Estándar ambiental	Nivel de cumplimiento	Frecuencia de informes
Objetivos de emisiones del acuerdo de París	Cumplimiento total	Anual
ISO 14001 Gestión ambiental	Certificado	Recertificación bienal
Protocolo de energía limpia argentina	100% cumplido	Trimestral

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Compromiso de reducir las emisiones de carbono y la producción de energía sostenible

El centro de Puerto S.A. se ha comprometido a reducir las emisiones de carbono a través de iniciativas específicas de energía renovable. A partir de 2024, la compañía ha logrado las siguientes métricas:

Métrico	Valor
Capacidad total de energía renovable	877 MW
Objetivo de reducción de emisiones de carbono	35% para 2030
Porcentaje de energía renovable en la cartera	42.5%

Inversiones en proyectos de energía renovable para minimizar el impacto ambiental

La compañía ha invertido en múltiples proyectos de energía renovable en Argentina:

Tipo de proyecto	Monto de inversión (USD)	Capacidad (MW)
Proyectos solares	$ 215 millones	300 MW
Proyectos eólicos	$ 187 millones	277 MW
Proyectos de biomasa	$ 93 millones	100 MW

Adaptación a los desafíos del cambio climático en la infraestructura energética

Estrategias de resiliencia climática implementadas por el centro de Puerto S.A.:

• Sistemas de conservación del agua en centrales eléctricas: 3.2 millones de litros reciclados anualmente
• Inversiones de infraestructura resistente a la sequía: $ 45 millones
• Cobertura de evaluación de riesgos climáticos: 100% de los activos operativos

Implementación de estrategias de gestión ambiental y conservación

Estrategia de conservación	Impacto anual
Áreas de protección de biodiversidad	1.200 hectáreas
Proyectos de restauración del ecosistema	78 hectáreas rehabilitadas
Gasto de cumplimiento ambiental	$ 12.5 millones

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Public sensitivity to utility rate hikes and service quality

The Argentine public remains highly sensitive to utility rate adjustments, a critical social factor for Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) given the government's push for cost-reflective tariffs (prices that reflect the true cost of production). The long history of heavily subsidized rates means that any move toward market pricing is politically charged and carries social risk.

The government's initial steps to phase out broad public subsidies have already caused a significant increase in consumer costs. For instance, the price of energy utilities compared to the general price level in the City of Buenos Aires increased sharply, moving from 42% to 92% in the nine months leading up to July 2025. This rate shock is compounded by ongoing adjustments, such as the September 2025 increase of 6.8% for gas and a monthly 1% rise for water services. This is a defintely difficult environment for consumers.

Around 60% of the approximately 16 million households using electricity still receive state assistance, which underscores the massive social and economic dependence on subsidized energy. The political risk is clear: a policy shift that re-freezes tariffs to appease public outcry would directly undermine the financial stability and investment incentives created by the new market-oriented regulations (like Resolution 21/2025 and Decree 450/2025). This is the core trade-off: financial sustainability for the generator versus social affordability for the consumer.

Need for reliable power supply drives long-term demand

While short-term economic contraction has dampened immediate consumption, the long-term social need for a reliable power supply remains a fundamental driver for CEPU's business. The country's infrastructure has suffered from years of under-investment, leading to frequent supply disruptions that severely impact quality of life and economic activity.

The long-term average electricity demand growth from January 2000 to March 2025 is 3.370%, and the power market is forecasted to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.58% between 2025 and 2033, driven by population and economic recovery. The current total electricity consumption is about 3154 kWh per person (September 2024 to August 2025), a figure that needs to rise to support a growing, modernizing economy.

To address the reliability gap, the government is incentivizing private investment in transmission. Planned private projects include the construction of 5,610 km of new lines, requiring an estimated investment of $6.6 billion, which will strengthen the national grid (SADI) and mitigate outages. This massive infrastructure push, although not directly CEPU's core generation business, is crucial for the social acceptance of higher tariffs, as consumers expect better service for higher prices.

Migration of skilled labor from the energy sector

The energy sector's volatility, characterized by past crises and high inflation, has historically driven skilled technical and engineering talent out of Argentina. While the new pro-market reforms and massive investment (estimated at up to $15 billion in the energy sector for 2025) are creating a huge demand for talent, the supply chain for skilled labor is strained.

The rapid expansion in the Vaca Muerta shale play (oil production up 9.6% and gas up 3.4% year-on-year in early 2025) and the push for renewables create intense competition for specialized workers. Central Puerto must compete with these booming sectors, plus the general trend of skilled professionals seeking more stable, dollar-denominated opportunities abroad. This competition drives up labor costs and increases the operational risk of delays in maintenance and new projects.

Here is a quick view of the labor market context:

Labor Market Indicator (Q1 2025)	Value	Context
Unemployment Rate	7.9%	Highest since Q3 2021, reflecting general economic contraction.
Construction Job Loss (End 2024 - Mar 2025)	81,871 jobs lost	Indicates significant sectoral contraction, potentially releasing some general labor but not specialized energy technicians.
Projected GDP Growth (2025)	5.2%	Economic recovery is expected to increase demand for all labor, including highly skilled energy workers.

The challenge for CEPU is not just filling vacancies, but retaining high-value employees who are now in high demand across the entire revitalized Argentine energy complex, from Vaca Muerta to the new Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects.

Focus on energy poverty and universal access goals

Addressing energy poverty and achieving universal access to sustainable energy are key social goals that directly influence CEPU's operating environment and future revenue streams. The government's regulatory framework is moving to a targeted subsidy model to protect the most vulnerable, which is a major shift from the past.

Key social and sustainability targets for the sector include:

• Achieving a 20% share of renewables (excluding large hydro) in electricity demand by the end of 2025.
• The actual share of renewables in electricity demand coverage was around 16.3% in early 2025 (March 2025 reached 17.6%), meaning the country is close but will likely miss the legal mandate.
• Implementing social tariffs for low-income users, supported by a $500 million World Bank project, to make the move toward market-based tariffs socially palatable.

This focus on energy access and clean energy creates both a mandate and an opportunity. CEPU, as a major player, is responding by diversifying its portfolio, notably securing contracts for two large-scale BESS projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender and acquiring the Cafayate solar farm (80 MW) for $48.5 million in 2025. This strategic shift aligns the company with the social demand for cleaner, more reliable power, which is essential for long-term social license to operate.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Transition to more efficient combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT)

You've seen the writing on the wall: older thermal plants are simply not efficient enough to compete in a liberalizing market. Central Puerto S.A. is addressing this head-on by converting its open-cycle thermal plants to Combined-Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), which captures waste heat to generate additional electricity without burning more fuel. It's a smart, immediate efficiency play.

The most significant project here is the closing of the Brigadier Lopez combined cycle. This conversion is expected to add an extra 140 MW of capacity to the plant's existing 292 MW, bringing the total installed capacity to 432 MW. The total project investment is approximately $185 million, and it was approximately 80% complete by the end of the second quarter of 2025, with commercial operation slated for the fourth quarter of 2025. This upgrade is crucial because it positions the plant to be among the most efficient in Argentina, plus it is designed to utilize natural gas sourced from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, ensuring a reliable, domestic fuel supply.

Need for grid modernization and smart grid adoption

The grid in Argentina needs to evolve to handle decentralized power sources, like renewables and battery storage, and Central Puerto is actively investing in the necessary infrastructure. While a full-scale smart grid (a digitally-enabled electrical network) rollout is a national effort, CEPU is building the high-tech links that make it possible.

A key infrastructure project is the high-voltage transmission line (LAT) being developed with YPF Luz in northwestern Argentina. This line is designed to transport 400 MW of renewable energy, primarily for lithium mining operations in the Puna region. This project alone represents a potential investment between $250 million and $400 million, demonstrating a clear commitment to modernizing the transmission backbone to support new, geographically remote energy demand and supply. This is not just about moving power; it's about creating a more flexible and robust system that can handle two-way power flow and variable renewable output.

Increased focus on utility-scale battery storage solutions

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are the game-changer for grid stability, allowing the company to store excess power and inject it during peak demand, a process called peak shaving. Central Puerto has moved decisively in 2025 to secure a leadership position in this critical technology.

In August 2025, the company was awarded two projects in the AlmaGBA battery energy storage systems tender, totaling 205 MW of new BESS capacity based on lithium technology. This is a massive step for the Argentine grid, and it will be fully operational by mid-2027. The associated capital expenditure (CapEx) for these two projects is estimated to be between $130 million and $140 million. To be fair, this is a significant CapEx commitment, but it's backed by a mandate letter from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) for potential financing up to $300 million for renewable energy projects, including this battery storage system. That's a strong vote of confidence in the technology's value.

Here's the quick math on the BESS projects:

Project Name	Capacity (MW)	Off-Taker	Estimated CapEx Share
Central Puerto BESS	150 MW	Edenor (Distribution Company)	Largest Share of $130M - $140M total
Central Costanera BESS	55 MW	Edesur (Distribution Company)	Smaller Share of $130M - $140M total
Total	205 MW		$130M - $140M

Digitalization of plant operations for predictive maintenance

Running highly efficient, complex assets like CCGTs and BESS requires moving beyond scheduled maintenance to predictive maintenance (PdM). This means using sensors, data analytics, and machine learning to predict equipment failure before it happens, minimizing costly downtime.

While specific digitalization software spending isn't broken out, the operational results confirm a high degree of technological control. The average availability rate for Central Puerto's combined cycles was a very solid 96% in the third quarter of 2025, confirming the company's commitment to a +95% standard. You defintely don't hit those numbers without a sophisticated digital maintenance and control system in place.

The focus areas for this digitalization are clear, even if the specific investment amount is embedded in the overall CapEx:

• Maintain the 96% combined-cycle availability rate.
• Integrate new BESS assets with existing thermal and hydro control systems.
• Optimize fuel consumption, especially with the use of Vaca Muerta gas in the Brigadier Lopez CCGT.
• Support the new market model (MAT) which demands real-time dispatch optimization.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Complex, often changing contract terms with the state (PPA)

The core legal risk for Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) has always been the stability of its Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with the state-owned wholesale market administrator, CAMMESA. This is now changing rapidly due to a significant policy pivot towards market liberalization. The Secretariat of Energy's Resolution SE 400/2025, effective November 1, 2025, is the roadmap for this shift, progressively reintroducing competition and long-term value creation in the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM).

This reform fundamentally alters the playing field by giving thermal generators new flexibility. They can now trade capacity and energy in the new Thermal Term Market (MAT), selling up to 20% of their production to Large Users (GUDIs) and the remaining up to 100% to Distribution Companies (Distcos) or the spot market. Plus, new generation facilities starting commercial operation on or after January 1, 2025, are now explicitly allowed to sign PPAs directly with industrial/commercial clients or distribution companies, lifting a long-standing restriction. This is defintely a move toward a more commercial, less regulated model.

Foreign exchange regulations (FX) impacting dollar-denominated contracts

A critical legal and financial factor is the government's stance on foreign exchange (FX) controls, which directly impacts the value of CEPU's dollar-denominated revenue streams. The good news is that the first half of 2025 saw a major easing of restrictions. The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) Communication 'A' 8226, effective April 14, 2025, eliminated most remaining FX controls.

This liberalization is key because a substantial portion of CEPU's cash flow is dollar-denominated, stemming from long-term contracts with CAMMESA, the Energía Plus framework, the Renewable Energy Term Market (MATER), and Steam Sales. The new market regime under Resolution SE 400/2025 further supports this by establishing a significant shift toward dollar-denominated revenues in the spot market, which is crucial for mitigating inflation and currency risk. The reference FX rate (Communication "A" 3500) as of March 31, 2025, stood at AR$1,073.88 to US$1.00.

Here's the quick math on the importance of the FX stability for investors:

Legal/Financial Impact Area	Pre-April 2025 Legal Constraint	Post-April 2025 Legal Status
Dividend Repatriation	Heavily restricted/delayed access to the Official Exchange Market (MLC).	Possible for distributable profits from fiscal years beginning on or after January 1, 2025.
Spot Market Revenue Currency	Remuneration values subject to significant local currency (Peso) inflation risk.	Shift towards US$-denominated revenues in the spot market (Resolution SE 400/2025).
Import Payments (Capital Goods)	Minimum waiting periods and complex systems (SIRA/SIRASE) for FX access.	Minimum waiting periods eliminated; advance payments up to 30% of FOB value permitted for capital goods.

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) requirements for new capacity

For a power generator, new capacity development is intrinsically linked to robust Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and compliance. CEPU has secured contracts for two large-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender (August 2025), and is actively pursuing other renewable initiatives.

To support this, the company signed a mandate letter with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in September 2025 for potential financing up to US$300 million. The IFC's involvement is a strong legal signal, as their technical, environmental, and social teams conducted a detailed review of CEPU's projects and its adherence to high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards. This means the company is meeting not just local, but stringent international financing requirements.

The company manages its legal and environmental obligations through a rigorous framework:

• Maintain an Integrated Management System (IMS) certified under ISO 14001, ISO 9001, and ISO 45001 Standards.
• Utilize a System of Management of Legal Matrixes to track and manage all applicable national, provincial, and municipal legal obligations.
• Commit to surpassing compliance with current environmental regulations and standards.

Labor laws and collective bargaining agreements in the energy sector

Labor law is a dynamic area in Argentina, and recent legislative changes have provided employers like CEPU with new tools to manage costs and workforce risk, though they require careful negotiation with unions. The new Law 27,742 (July 2024) introduced key reforms to the labor framework.

The most significant changes revolve around termination and severance costs:

• Severance Flexibility: The law allows for the replacement of traditional severance compensation with a Severance Fund or a private financing system, provided this is established through a Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).
• Reduced Litigation Risk: It eliminates several fines and aggravating circumstances that historically drove up the cost of labor claims for employers, such as penalties for deficient employment registration.
• Strike Management: For critical activities, which include public utilities like energy generation, the law mandates that a minimum service of at least 75% of normal services must be maintained during a strike.

CEPU must navigate these new rules through its CBAs with energy sector unions, such as the powerful Luz y Fuerza. While the new framework offers cost management flexibility, it requires mutual agreement, meaning successful implementation depends on strong, ongoing labor relations.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental landscape for Central Puerto S.A. is a clear-cut story of transition: a mandated shift toward renewables butts up against severe climate-driven operational risks for hydro assets. This dynamic creates both an opportunity for high-margin renewable growth and a critical need for thermal efficiency upgrades to maintain grid stability.

Push for renewable energy integration (e.g., RenovAr program)

Argentina's national goal is to source 20% of its electricity consumption from renewable sources by the end of 2025, a target set by Law No. 27.191. While renewables covered 16% of demand in 2024, the gap is closing fast. As of June 2025, the RenovAr program and the private Term Market (MATER) have resulted in 9.2 GW of new-build capacity already in operation or under construction.

Central Puerto S.A. is actively participating, but its generation mix remains heavily thermal. For Q2 2025, only 9% of the company's generation came from renewables (wind and solar), while thermal generation accounted for 71%. To address this, the company is making key strategic investments:

• Acquired the 80 MW Cafayate solar farm for US$48.5 million in 2025, which has a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) running through 2039.
• Secured contracts for two large-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender (August 2025). This BESS capacity is defintely a game-changer for grid stability, which is a major bottleneck for integrating intermittent wind and solar.

Stricter emissions standards for thermal generation plants

The regulatory focus is shifting toward penalizing high-emission thermal generation, a direct risk for Central Puerto S.A.'s core business. Argentina is considering implementing an Emission Rights Market-a cap-and-trade system-which would include a fine structure similar to the European carbon tax to comply with its Paris Agreement commitments.

While sectorial emission quotas are expected to be set over a 10- to 12-month period, the cost of carbon is a near-term financial modeling risk. The company is mitigating this by improving the efficiency of its largest thermal assets:

• Investment in the combined cycle closure of the Brigadier López plant is underway, which will add 140 MW of capacity. This upgrade allows the plant to generate more power from the same amount of fuel, thus lowering its emissions intensity per megawatt-hour.

Water usage regulations for cooling systems

There is no single, new national regulation for thermal power plant cooling discharge in 2025, but the pressure for localized compliance is rising. The general regulatory trend mandates the promotion of new technologies for pollution characterization and monitoring of liquid effluents. This means provincial and municipal authorities have a clearer framework to enforce stricter discharge limits.

Central Puerto S.A. operates thermal plants that draw water from rivers for cooling systems. The company's stated practice is to filter the water and return it to the river free from foreign bodies and waste, with periodic physical and chemical controls before discharge, all under local jurisdictional permits. What this estimate hides is the potential for local authorities to impose new restrictions on thermal discharge temperature to protect aquatic life, which could force expensive retrofits or plant derating.

Climate change impact on hydrological resources for hydro assets

Climate change is already a major operational risk for Central Puerto S.A.'s hydroelectric portfolio. Severe droughts since 2024 have critically impaired hydropower generation across Argentina.

The impact on Central Puerto S.A.'s key hydro asset, Piedra del Águila, was dramatic in 2025. In 3Q25, generation from Piedra del Águila saw a massive -59% year-over-year decline due to lower hydrology, a direct result of low river inflows. The long-term climate projections for the Andes mountains, where this water originates, show a robust drying signal in wintertime precipitation, which will structurally reduce the surface runoff that feeds these reservoirs.

The core issue is that hydro generation, which is clean and flexible, is becoming increasingly unreliable. This forces the grid to rely more on thermal generation, increasing the overall carbon footprint and exposure to the new emission regulations.

Environmental Factor	2025 CEPU Data/Metric	Strategic Implication
Renewable Energy Share (National Goal)	Target: 20% of consumption by end of 2025.	High regulatory pressure to increase non-thermal capacity.
CEPU Renewable Capacity Addition (2025)	80 MW solar farm acquired for US$48.5 million.	Executing on a growth strategy to diversify away from thermal risk.
Energy Storage Investment (2025)	Secured 205 MW of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) contracts.	Directly addresses the intermittency challenge of wind/solar, improving grid integration.
Thermal Generation Share (Q2 2025)	71% of total generation.	High exposure to proposed Emission Rights Market and carbon pricing risk.
Hydro Generation Decline (3Q25)	Piedra del Águila generation declined -59% year-over-year.	Climate change is a present, material operational risk, driving up reliance on thermal backup.

The biggest risk is the government's ability to consistently pay for power supplied, which directly impacts CEPU's working capital. If onboarding takes 14+ days to get paid, churn risk rises. Still, the company's thermal and renewable capacity is essential for the grid, giving it a strong strategic position.

Next Step: Finance: Model a stress-test scenario for CEPU's 2025 cash flow assuming a 90-day delay in CAMMESA payments by end of next week.