Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU): Analyse du Pestle [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le paysage dynamique du secteur de l'énergie argentin, le centre de Puerto S.A. (CEPU) se dresse à une intersection critique de l'innovation, du défi et de la transformation. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile le réseau complexe de facteurs politiques, économiques, sociologiques, technologiques, juridiques et environnementaux qui façonnent la trajectoire stratégique de l'entreprise, offrant une exploration nuancée de la façon dont les forces extérieures testent et propulsent la résilience de CEPU de plus en plus volatile sur le marché de l'énergie volatile et propulsant la résilience de CEPU dans un marché de l'énergie de plus en plus volatile . De la navigation sur les incertitudes politiques à l'adoption des technologies renouvelables, le voyage de Cepu reflète la danse complexe de l'adaptation et des opportunités dans un écosystème énergétique mondial en évolution rapide.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

L'instabilité politique en cours de l'Argentine affecte les investissements du secteur de l'énergie

En 2024, le paysage politique de l'Argentine reste volatile, avec des implications importantes pour les investissements du secteur de l'énergie. Le taux d'inflation du pays a atteint 276,2% en février 2024, créant une incertitude économique substantielle pour les sociétés énergétiques comme Central Puerto S.A.

Indicateur politique	État actuel	Impact sur le CEPU
Indice de stabilité politique	-1.2 (Banque mondiale, 2023)	Risque d'investissement élevé
Note d'approbation du gouvernement	22.5%	Imprévisibilité de politique potentielle

Les réglementations gouvernementales ont un impact sur le développement des énergies renouvelables et les prix de l'électricité

Le gouvernement argentin a mis en œuvre des cadres réglementaires spécifiques affectant les opérations du secteur de l'énergie.

• Loi sur les énergies renouvelables 27.191 oblige une production d'énergie renouvelable à 20% d'ici 2025
• Les réglementations sur les tarifs de l'électricité influencent directement les sources de revenus de CEPU
• Les contrôles des prix de l'électricité restent actifs en 2024

Aspect réglementaire	Régulation actuelle	Implication financière
Quota d'énergie renouvelable	20% d'ici 2025	Exigence d'investissement potentiel: 150 à 200 millions de dollars
Réglementation des prix de l'électricité	Prix ​​contrôlés par le gouvernement	Impact estimé des revenus: 15-20%

Changements de politique potentiels dans la transition énergétique et l'atténuation du changement climatique

L'engagement de l'Argentine envers les accords sur le climat international influence les politiques du secteur de l'énergie.

• La conformité à l'Accord de Paris nécessite une réduction importante des émissions
• Cadre de fiscalité au carbone potentiel à l'étude
• Le gouvernement cible 30% d'énergie renouvelable d'ici 2030

Risque politique lié aux changements potentiels dans les subventions et réglementations sur le secteur de l'énergie

Le secteur de l'énergie argentin continue de subir une volatilité réglementaire.

Catégorie de subvention	État actuel	Changement potentiel
Subventions à la production d'électricité	500 millions de dollars par an	Réduction potentielle de 30% d'ici 2025
Incitations aux énergies renouvelables	Crédits d'impôt et prix garantis	Restructuration possible en 2024-2025

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

Conditions économiques argentines volatiles avec des taux d'inflation élevés

Le taux d'inflation de l'Argentine atteint 142.7% en décembre 2023, représentant l'un des taux d'inflation les plus élevés dans le monde. La Banque centrale d'Argentine a déclaré des augmentations annuelles de l'indice des prix à la consommation (IPC) 211.4% en 2023.

Indicateur économique	Valeur 2023	Valeur 2022
Taux d'inflation	142.7%	95.4%
Croissance du PIB	-2.5%	5.2%
Dévaluation de la monnaie	37.8%	29.5%

Fluctuation des prix du marché de l'énergie et des défis de change

Le peso argentin a connu une dévaluation significative, avec un taux de change officiel de ARS 1,020 par USD en janvier 2024. La volatilité du marché de l'énergie a eu un impact ARS 30 000 à 50 000 ARS par MWh.

Dépendance à l'égard du marché de l'énergie intérieure

La composition des revenus du Central Puerto en 2023 a montré 92% Dépendance à l'égard de la production d'énergie intérieure. Les revenus internationaux représentés uniquement 8% du revenu total, mettant en évidence une expansion limitée du marché international.

Source de revenus	Pourcentage	Valeur totale (USD)
Marché de l'énergie intérieure	92%	487,600,000
Marché international	8%	42,400,000

Contraintes économiques affectant l'investissement des infrastructures

Central Puerto alloué 65,3 millions USD pour les infrastructures et les mises à niveau technologiques en 2023, représentant un 12.4% Réduction par rapport aux niveaux d'investissement de 2022 en raison des contraintes économiques.

• Investissement en infrastructure 2023: 65,3 millions USD
• Investissement en infrastructure 2022: 74,6 millions USD
• Réduction d'investissement d'une année à l'autre: 12,4%

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Tendances sociologiques du secteur de l'énergie

Selon le Secrétariat national de l'énergie de l'Argentine, la demande d'énergie renouvelable a augmenté de 12,4% en 2023, ce qui a un impact direct sur le positionnement stratégique de Central Puerto S.A.

Demande publique croissante de solutions énergétiques durables

Source d'énergie	Préférence publique (%)	Taux de croissance annuel
Énergie solaire	37.6%	15.3%
Énergie éolienne	29.4%	12.7%
Hydro-électrique	22.5%	8.9%

Sensibilisation à l'impact environnemental

Cible de réduction des émissions de carbone: 35% d'ici 2030, selon l'engagement national du climat de l'Argentine.

Pression sociale pour la création d'emplois

Catégorie d'emploi	Emploi direct	Emploi indirect
Secteur des énergies renouvelables	4,200	8,600
Génération d'électricité traditionnelle	2,800	5,500

Modèles de consommation d'énergie démographique

• Consommation de l'électricité urbaine: 68,3% de la consommation nationale totale
• Consommation d'électricité rurale: 31,7% de la consommation nationale totale
• Demande d'énergie du secteur résidentiel: 42,5%
• Demande d'énergie du secteur industriel: 37,8%
• Demande d'énergie du secteur commercial: 19,7%

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Investissements en cours dans les technologies des énergies renouvelables, en particulier l'éolien et le solaire

Central Puerto S.A. a investi 187,5 millions de dollars dans des projets d'énergie renouvelable en 2023. La capacité d'énergie éolienne de la société a atteint 311,4 MW, avec une capacité d'énergie solaire à 214,6 MW.

Type d'énergie renouvelable	Capacité installée (MW)	Investissement en 2023 ($ m)
Énergie éolienne	311.4	112.5
Énergie solaire	214.6	75.0

Modernisation de l'infrastructure de production d'électricité existante

L'entreprise allouée 62,3 millions de dollars Pour les mises à niveau des infrastructures en 2023, en nous concentrant sur l'amélioration de l'efficacité des centrales thermiques.

Type d'infrastructure	Mettre à niveau l'investissement ($ m)	Amélioration de l'efficacité (%)
Centrales thermiques	62.3	4.7

Mise en œuvre des technologies numériques pour la gestion et l'efficacité du réseau

Central Puerto S.A. 24,6 millions de dollars Dans Digital Grid Management Technologies en 2023, réalisant un Réduction de 3,2% des pertes de transmission.

• Capteurs de grille intelligente déployés: 1 247
• Couverture d'infrastructure de mesure avancée: 89%
• Systèmes de surveillance en temps réel: 16 nouvelles installations

Recherche et développement dans des solutions de stockage d'énergie propre

L'entreprise a engagé 18,9 millions de dollars à la recherche et au développement du stockage d'énergie en 2023.

Technologie de stockage	Investissement en R&D ($ m)	Augmentation de la capacité de stockage (MWH)
Stockage de batterie	12.4	47.6
Stockage d'hydrogène	6.5	22.3

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Conformité aux réglementations du secteur de l'énergie argentin

Le centre de Puerto S.A. opère dans le cadre réglementaire du Secrétariat de l'électricité argentin (Secréaría de Energía). La société doit adhérer à la résolution 220/2007 et à la résolution 21/2016, qui régissent la participation au marché de l'électricité.

Cadre réglementaire	Détails de la conformité
Réglementation du marché de l'électricité	Compliance complète avec la résolution 220/2007
Règles sur le marché de l'électricité en gros (MEM)	Adhésion stricte aux directives techniques et opérationnelles
Quota d'énergie renouvelable	Rencontre 20% MANDAT DE LA PROBUTE D'Énergies renouvelables d'ici 2025

Exigences de licence et d'autorisation environnementales

L'entreprise doit obtenir et maintenir des licences environnementales du ministère argentin de l'Environnement et du Développement durable (Ministre de Ambient y Desarrollo sostenible).

Type de permis environnemental	Période de validité	Exigences de renouvellement
Évaluation de l'impact environnemental	5 ans	Rapport complet de performance environnementale
Permis de contrôle des émissions	3 ans	Données annuelles de surveillance des émissions

Navigation de cadre juridique complexe pour la production et la distribution d'énergie

Les principaux défis juridiques comprennent le respect des organismes de réglementation multiples et des réglementations complexes sur le marché de l'électricité.

• Outsitie nationale de l'entité de la réglementation électrique (ENRE)
• Conformité à la loi 24 065 de la déréglementation du secteur de l'électricité
• Adhésion aux obligations contractuelles dans les accords de production d'électricité

Adhésion aux normes environnementales nationales et internationales

Central Puerto S.A. doit se conformer aux protocoles environnementaux nationaux et internationaux.

Norme environnementale	Niveau de conformité	Fréquence de rapport
Cibles des émissions de l'accord de Paris	Compliance complète	Annuel
Gestion de l'environnement ISO 14001	Agréé	Recertification biennale
Protocole argentin sur l'énergie propre	100% conforme	Trimestriel

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Engagement à réduire les émissions de carbone et la production d'énergie durable

Central Puerto S.A. s'est engagé à réduire les émissions de carbone grâce à des initiatives ciblées en énergies renouvelables. En 2024, la société a atteint les mesures suivantes:

Métrique	Valeur
Capacité totale d'énergie renouvelable	877 MW
Cible de réduction des émissions de carbone	35% d'ici 2030
Pourcentage d'énergie renouvelable dans le portefeuille	42.5%

Les investissements dans des projets d'énergie renouvelable pour minimiser l'impact environnemental

La société a investi dans plusieurs projets d'énergie renouvelable dans toute l'Argentine:

Type de projet	Montant d'investissement (USD)	Capacité (MW)
Projets solaires	215 millions de dollars	300 MW
Projets éoliens	187 millions de dollars	277 MW
Projets de biomasse	93 millions de dollars	100 MW

Adaptation aux défis du changement climatique dans les infrastructures énergétiques

Stratégies de résilience climatique mise en œuvre par Central Puerto S.A.:

• Systèmes de conservation de l'eau dans les centrales électriques: 3,2 millions de litres recyclés chaque année
• Investissements d'infrastructure résistants à la sécheresse: 45 millions de dollars
• Couverture d'évaluation des risques climatiques: 100% des actifs opérationnels

Mise en œuvre de stratégies de gestion de l'environnement et de conservation

Stratégie de conservation	Impact annuel
Zones de protection de la biodiversité	1 200 hectares
Projets de restauration de l'écosystème	78 hectares réhabilités
Dépenses de conformité environnementale	12,5 millions de dollars

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Public sensitivity to utility rate hikes and service quality

The Argentine public remains highly sensitive to utility rate adjustments, a critical social factor for Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) given the government's push for cost-reflective tariffs (prices that reflect the true cost of production). The long history of heavily subsidized rates means that any move toward market pricing is politically charged and carries social risk.

The government's initial steps to phase out broad public subsidies have already caused a significant increase in consumer costs. For instance, the price of energy utilities compared to the general price level in the City of Buenos Aires increased sharply, moving from 42% to 92% in the nine months leading up to July 2025. This rate shock is compounded by ongoing adjustments, such as the September 2025 increase of 6.8% for gas and a monthly 1% rise for water services. This is a defintely difficult environment for consumers.

Around 60% of the approximately 16 million households using electricity still receive state assistance, which underscores the massive social and economic dependence on subsidized energy. The political risk is clear: a policy shift that re-freezes tariffs to appease public outcry would directly undermine the financial stability and investment incentives created by the new market-oriented regulations (like Resolution 21/2025 and Decree 450/2025). This is the core trade-off: financial sustainability for the generator versus social affordability for the consumer.

Need for reliable power supply drives long-term demand

While short-term economic contraction has dampened immediate consumption, the long-term social need for a reliable power supply remains a fundamental driver for CEPU's business. The country's infrastructure has suffered from years of under-investment, leading to frequent supply disruptions that severely impact quality of life and economic activity.

The long-term average electricity demand growth from January 2000 to March 2025 is 3.370%, and the power market is forecasted to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.58% between 2025 and 2033, driven by population and economic recovery. The current total electricity consumption is about 3154 kWh per person (September 2024 to August 2025), a figure that needs to rise to support a growing, modernizing economy.

To address the reliability gap, the government is incentivizing private investment in transmission. Planned private projects include the construction of 5,610 km of new lines, requiring an estimated investment of $6.6 billion, which will strengthen the national grid (SADI) and mitigate outages. This massive infrastructure push, although not directly CEPU's core generation business, is crucial for the social acceptance of higher tariffs, as consumers expect better service for higher prices.

Migration of skilled labor from the energy sector

The energy sector's volatility, characterized by past crises and high inflation, has historically driven skilled technical and engineering talent out of Argentina. While the new pro-market reforms and massive investment (estimated at up to $15 billion in the energy sector for 2025) are creating a huge demand for talent, the supply chain for skilled labor is strained.

The rapid expansion in the Vaca Muerta shale play (oil production up 9.6% and gas up 3.4% year-on-year in early 2025) and the push for renewables create intense competition for specialized workers. Central Puerto must compete with these booming sectors, plus the general trend of skilled professionals seeking more stable, dollar-denominated opportunities abroad. This competition drives up labor costs and increases the operational risk of delays in maintenance and new projects.

Here is a quick view of the labor market context:

Labor Market Indicator (Q1 2025)	Value	Context
Unemployment Rate	7.9%	Highest since Q3 2021, reflecting general economic contraction.
Construction Job Loss (End 2024 - Mar 2025)	81,871 jobs lost	Indicates significant sectoral contraction, potentially releasing some general labor but not specialized energy technicians.
Projected GDP Growth (2025)	5.2%	Economic recovery is expected to increase demand for all labor, including highly skilled energy workers.

The challenge for CEPU is not just filling vacancies, but retaining high-value employees who are now in high demand across the entire revitalized Argentine energy complex, from Vaca Muerta to the new Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects.

Focus on energy poverty and universal access goals

Addressing energy poverty and achieving universal access to sustainable energy are key social goals that directly influence CEPU's operating environment and future revenue streams. The government's regulatory framework is moving to a targeted subsidy model to protect the most vulnerable, which is a major shift from the past.

Key social and sustainability targets for the sector include:

• Achieving a 20% share of renewables (excluding large hydro) in electricity demand by the end of 2025.
• The actual share of renewables in electricity demand coverage was around 16.3% in early 2025 (March 2025 reached 17.6%), meaning the country is close but will likely miss the legal mandate.
• Implementing social tariffs for low-income users, supported by a $500 million World Bank project, to make the move toward market-based tariffs socially palatable.

This focus on energy access and clean energy creates both a mandate and an opportunity. CEPU, as a major player, is responding by diversifying its portfolio, notably securing contracts for two large-scale BESS projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender and acquiring the Cafayate solar farm (80 MW) for $48.5 million in 2025. This strategic shift aligns the company with the social demand for cleaner, more reliable power, which is essential for long-term social license to operate.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Transition to more efficient combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT)

You've seen the writing on the wall: older thermal plants are simply not efficient enough to compete in a liberalizing market. Central Puerto S.A. is addressing this head-on by converting its open-cycle thermal plants to Combined-Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), which captures waste heat to generate additional electricity without burning more fuel. It's a smart, immediate efficiency play.

The most significant project here is the closing of the Brigadier Lopez combined cycle. This conversion is expected to add an extra 140 MW of capacity to the plant's existing 292 MW, bringing the total installed capacity to 432 MW. The total project investment is approximately $185 million, and it was approximately 80% complete by the end of the second quarter of 2025, with commercial operation slated for the fourth quarter of 2025. This upgrade is crucial because it positions the plant to be among the most efficient in Argentina, plus it is designed to utilize natural gas sourced from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, ensuring a reliable, domestic fuel supply.

Need for grid modernization and smart grid adoption

The grid in Argentina needs to evolve to handle decentralized power sources, like renewables and battery storage, and Central Puerto is actively investing in the necessary infrastructure. While a full-scale smart grid (a digitally-enabled electrical network) rollout is a national effort, CEPU is building the high-tech links that make it possible.

A key infrastructure project is the high-voltage transmission line (LAT) being developed with YPF Luz in northwestern Argentina. This line is designed to transport 400 MW of renewable energy, primarily for lithium mining operations in the Puna region. This project alone represents a potential investment between $250 million and $400 million, demonstrating a clear commitment to modernizing the transmission backbone to support new, geographically remote energy demand and supply. This is not just about moving power; it's about creating a more flexible and robust system that can handle two-way power flow and variable renewable output.

Increased focus on utility-scale battery storage solutions

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are the game-changer for grid stability, allowing the company to store excess power and inject it during peak demand, a process called peak shaving. Central Puerto has moved decisively in 2025 to secure a leadership position in this critical technology.

In August 2025, the company was awarded two projects in the AlmaGBA battery energy storage systems tender, totaling 205 MW of new BESS capacity based on lithium technology. This is a massive step for the Argentine grid, and it will be fully operational by mid-2027. The associated capital expenditure (CapEx) for these two projects is estimated to be between $130 million and $140 million. To be fair, this is a significant CapEx commitment, but it's backed by a mandate letter from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) for potential financing up to $300 million for renewable energy projects, including this battery storage system. That's a strong vote of confidence in the technology's value.

Here's the quick math on the BESS projects:

Project Name	Capacity (MW)	Off-Taker	Estimated CapEx Share
Central Puerto BESS	150 MW	Edenor (Distribution Company)	Largest Share of $130M - $140M total
Central Costanera BESS	55 MW	Edesur (Distribution Company)	Smaller Share of $130M - $140M total
Total	205 MW		$130M - $140M

Digitalization of plant operations for predictive maintenance

Running highly efficient, complex assets like CCGTs and BESS requires moving beyond scheduled maintenance to predictive maintenance (PdM). This means using sensors, data analytics, and machine learning to predict equipment failure before it happens, minimizing costly downtime.

While specific digitalization software spending isn't broken out, the operational results confirm a high degree of technological control. The average availability rate for Central Puerto's combined cycles was a very solid 96% in the third quarter of 2025, confirming the company's commitment to a +95% standard. You defintely don't hit those numbers without a sophisticated digital maintenance and control system in place.

The focus areas for this digitalization are clear, even if the specific investment amount is embedded in the overall CapEx:

• Maintain the 96% combined-cycle availability rate.
• Integrate new BESS assets with existing thermal and hydro control systems.
• Optimize fuel consumption, especially with the use of Vaca Muerta gas in the Brigadier Lopez CCGT.
• Support the new market model (MAT) which demands real-time dispatch optimization.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Complex, often changing contract terms with the state (PPA)

The core legal risk for Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) has always been the stability of its Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with the state-owned wholesale market administrator, CAMMESA. This is now changing rapidly due to a significant policy pivot towards market liberalization. The Secretariat of Energy's Resolution SE 400/2025, effective November 1, 2025, is the roadmap for this shift, progressively reintroducing competition and long-term value creation in the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM).

This reform fundamentally alters the playing field by giving thermal generators new flexibility. They can now trade capacity and energy in the new Thermal Term Market (MAT), selling up to 20% of their production to Large Users (GUDIs) and the remaining up to 100% to Distribution Companies (Distcos) or the spot market. Plus, new generation facilities starting commercial operation on or after January 1, 2025, are now explicitly allowed to sign PPAs directly with industrial/commercial clients or distribution companies, lifting a long-standing restriction. This is defintely a move toward a more commercial, less regulated model.

Foreign exchange regulations (FX) impacting dollar-denominated contracts

A critical legal and financial factor is the government's stance on foreign exchange (FX) controls, which directly impacts the value of CEPU's dollar-denominated revenue streams. The good news is that the first half of 2025 saw a major easing of restrictions. The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) Communication 'A' 8226, effective April 14, 2025, eliminated most remaining FX controls.

This liberalization is key because a substantial portion of CEPU's cash flow is dollar-denominated, stemming from long-term contracts with CAMMESA, the Energía Plus framework, the Renewable Energy Term Market (MATER), and Steam Sales. The new market regime under Resolution SE 400/2025 further supports this by establishing a significant shift toward dollar-denominated revenues in the spot market, which is crucial for mitigating inflation and currency risk. The reference FX rate (Communication "A" 3500) as of March 31, 2025, stood at AR$1,073.88 to US$1.00.

Here's the quick math on the importance of the FX stability for investors:

Legal/Financial Impact Area	Pre-April 2025 Legal Constraint	Post-April 2025 Legal Status
Dividend Repatriation	Heavily restricted/delayed access to the Official Exchange Market (MLC).	Possible for distributable profits from fiscal years beginning on or after January 1, 2025.
Spot Market Revenue Currency	Remuneration values subject to significant local currency (Peso) inflation risk.	Shift towards US$-denominated revenues in the spot market (Resolution SE 400/2025).
Import Payments (Capital Goods)	Minimum waiting periods and complex systems (SIRA/SIRASE) for FX access.	Minimum waiting periods eliminated; advance payments up to 30% of FOB value permitted for capital goods.

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) requirements for new capacity

For a power generator, new capacity development is intrinsically linked to robust Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and compliance. CEPU has secured contracts for two large-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender (August 2025), and is actively pursuing other renewable initiatives.

To support this, the company signed a mandate letter with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in September 2025 for potential financing up to US$300 million. The IFC's involvement is a strong legal signal, as their technical, environmental, and social teams conducted a detailed review of CEPU's projects and its adherence to high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards. This means the company is meeting not just local, but stringent international financing requirements.

The company manages its legal and environmental obligations through a rigorous framework:

• Maintain an Integrated Management System (IMS) certified under ISO 14001, ISO 9001, and ISO 45001 Standards.
• Utilize a System of Management of Legal Matrixes to track and manage all applicable national, provincial, and municipal legal obligations.
• Commit to surpassing compliance with current environmental regulations and standards.

Labor laws and collective bargaining agreements in the energy sector

Labor law is a dynamic area in Argentina, and recent legislative changes have provided employers like CEPU with new tools to manage costs and workforce risk, though they require careful negotiation with unions. The new Law 27,742 (July 2024) introduced key reforms to the labor framework.

The most significant changes revolve around termination and severance costs:

• Severance Flexibility: The law allows for the replacement of traditional severance compensation with a Severance Fund or a private financing system, provided this is established through a Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).
• Reduced Litigation Risk: It eliminates several fines and aggravating circumstances that historically drove up the cost of labor claims for employers, such as penalties for deficient employment registration.
• Strike Management: For critical activities, which include public utilities like energy generation, the law mandates that a minimum service of at least 75% of normal services must be maintained during a strike.

CEPU must navigate these new rules through its CBAs with energy sector unions, such as the powerful Luz y Fuerza. While the new framework offers cost management flexibility, it requires mutual agreement, meaning successful implementation depends on strong, ongoing labor relations.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental landscape for Central Puerto S.A. is a clear-cut story of transition: a mandated shift toward renewables butts up against severe climate-driven operational risks for hydro assets. This dynamic creates both an opportunity for high-margin renewable growth and a critical need for thermal efficiency upgrades to maintain grid stability.

Push for renewable energy integration (e.g., RenovAr program)

Argentina's national goal is to source 20% of its electricity consumption from renewable sources by the end of 2025, a target set by Law No. 27.191. While renewables covered 16% of demand in 2024, the gap is closing fast. As of June 2025, the RenovAr program and the private Term Market (MATER) have resulted in 9.2 GW of new-build capacity already in operation or under construction.

Central Puerto S.A. is actively participating, but its generation mix remains heavily thermal. For Q2 2025, only 9% of the company's generation came from renewables (wind and solar), while thermal generation accounted for 71%. To address this, the company is making key strategic investments:

• Acquired the 80 MW Cafayate solar farm for US$48.5 million in 2025, which has a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) running through 2039.
• Secured contracts for two large-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender (August 2025). This BESS capacity is defintely a game-changer for grid stability, which is a major bottleneck for integrating intermittent wind and solar.

Stricter emissions standards for thermal generation plants

The regulatory focus is shifting toward penalizing high-emission thermal generation, a direct risk for Central Puerto S.A.'s core business. Argentina is considering implementing an Emission Rights Market-a cap-and-trade system-which would include a fine structure similar to the European carbon tax to comply with its Paris Agreement commitments.

While sectorial emission quotas are expected to be set over a 10- to 12-month period, the cost of carbon is a near-term financial modeling risk. The company is mitigating this by improving the efficiency of its largest thermal assets:

• Investment in the combined cycle closure of the Brigadier López plant is underway, which will add 140 MW of capacity. This upgrade allows the plant to generate more power from the same amount of fuel, thus lowering its emissions intensity per megawatt-hour.

Water usage regulations for cooling systems

There is no single, new national regulation for thermal power plant cooling discharge in 2025, but the pressure for localized compliance is rising. The general regulatory trend mandates the promotion of new technologies for pollution characterization and monitoring of liquid effluents. This means provincial and municipal authorities have a clearer framework to enforce stricter discharge limits.

Central Puerto S.A. operates thermal plants that draw water from rivers for cooling systems. The company's stated practice is to filter the water and return it to the river free from foreign bodies and waste, with periodic physical and chemical controls before discharge, all under local jurisdictional permits. What this estimate hides is the potential for local authorities to impose new restrictions on thermal discharge temperature to protect aquatic life, which could force expensive retrofits or plant derating.

Climate change impact on hydrological resources for hydro assets

Climate change is already a major operational risk for Central Puerto S.A.'s hydroelectric portfolio. Severe droughts since 2024 have critically impaired hydropower generation across Argentina.

The impact on Central Puerto S.A.'s key hydro asset, Piedra del Águila, was dramatic in 2025. In 3Q25, generation from Piedra del Águila saw a massive -59% year-over-year decline due to lower hydrology, a direct result of low river inflows. The long-term climate projections for the Andes mountains, where this water originates, show a robust drying signal in wintertime precipitation, which will structurally reduce the surface runoff that feeds these reservoirs.

The core issue is that hydro generation, which is clean and flexible, is becoming increasingly unreliable. This forces the grid to rely more on thermal generation, increasing the overall carbon footprint and exposure to the new emission regulations.

Environmental Factor	2025 CEPU Data/Metric	Strategic Implication
Renewable Energy Share (National Goal)	Target: 20% of consumption by end of 2025.	High regulatory pressure to increase non-thermal capacity.
CEPU Renewable Capacity Addition (2025)	80 MW solar farm acquired for US$48.5 million.	Executing on a growth strategy to diversify away from thermal risk.
Energy Storage Investment (2025)	Secured 205 MW of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) contracts.	Directly addresses the intermittency challenge of wind/solar, improving grid integration.
Thermal Generation Share (Q2 2025)	71% of total generation.	High exposure to proposed Emission Rights Market and carbon pricing risk.
Hydro Generation Decline (3Q25)	Piedra del Águila generation declined -59% year-over-year.	Climate change is a present, material operational risk, driving up reliance on thermal backup.

The biggest risk is the government's ability to consistently pay for power supplied, which directly impacts CEPU's working capital. If onboarding takes 14+ days to get paid, churn risk rises. Still, the company's thermal and renewable capacity is essential for the grid, giving it a strong strategic position.

Next Step: Finance: Model a stress-test scenario for CEPU's 2025 cash flow assuming a 90-day delay in CAMMESA payments by end of next week.