Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU): Análise de Pestle [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

Na paisagem dinâmica do setor de energia da Argentina, o centro de Puerto S.A. (CEPU) está em uma interseção crítica de inovação, desafio e transformação. Essa análise abrangente de pilotes revela a complexa rede de fatores políticos, econômicos, sociológicos, tecnológicos, legais e ambientais que moldam a trajetória estratégica da empresa, oferecendo uma exploração diferenciada de como as forças externas estão testando e impulsionando a resiliência de Cepu em um mercado de energia cada vez mais volátil . Desde a navegação nas incertezas políticas até a adoção de tecnologias renováveis, a jornada de Cepu reflete a intrincada dança de adaptação e oportunidade em um ecossistema global de energia global em rápida evolução.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Políticos

A instabilidade política em andamento da Argentina afeta os investimentos no setor de energia

Em 2024, o cenário político da Argentina permanece volátil, com implicações significativas para os investimentos no setor de energia. A taxa de inflação do país atingiu 276,2% em fevereiro de 2024, criando incerteza econômica substancial para empresas de energia como o centro de Puerto S.A.

Indicador político	Status atual	Impacto no CEPU
Índice de Estabilidade Política	-1.2 (Banco Mundial, 2023)	Alto risco de investimento
Classificação de aprovação do governo	22.5%	Potencial imprevisibilidade da política

Os regulamentos governamentais afetam o desenvolvimento de energia renovável e o preço da eletricidade

O governo argentino implementou estruturas regulatórias específicas que afetam as operações do setor de energia.

• Lei de Energia Renovável 27.191 exige 20% de geração de energia renovável até 2025
• Os regulamentos tarifários de eletricidade influenciam diretamente os fluxos de receita da CEPU
• Os controles de preço da eletricidade permanecem ativos em 2024

Aspecto regulatório	Regulamentação atual	Implicação financeira
Cota de energia renovável	20% até 2025	Requisito de investimento potencial: US $ 150-200 milhões
Regulação do preço da eletricidade	Preços controlados pelo governo	Impacto estimado da receita: 15-20%

Mudanças de política potenciais na transição energética e mitigação de mudanças climáticas

O compromisso da Argentina com acordos climáticos internacionais influencia as políticas do setor de energia.

• A conformidade do acordo de Paris requer redução significativa de emissões
• Potencial estrutura de tributação de carbono em consideração
• O governo tem como alvo 30% de energia renovável até 2030

Risco político relacionado a possíveis mudanças nos subsídios e regulamentos do setor energético

O setor de energia argentina continua a experimentar a volatilidade regulatória.

Categoria de subsídio	Status atual	Mudança potencial
Subsídios à geração de eletricidade	US $ 500 milhões anualmente	Redução potencial de 30% até 2025
Incentivos energéticos renováveis	Créditos tributários e preços garantidos	Possível reestruturação em 2024-2025

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análise de pilão: Fatores econômicos

Condições econômicas argentinas voláteis com altas taxas de inflação

A taxa de inflação da Argentina alcançada 142.7% em dezembro de 2023, representando uma das maiores taxas de inflação em todo o mundo. O Banco Central da Argentina relatou aumentos anuais de preços ao consumidor (CPI) de 211.4% em 2023.

Indicador econômico	2023 valor	2022 Valor
Taxa de inflação	142.7%	95.4%
Crescimento do PIB	-2.5%	5.2%
Desvalorização da moeda	37.8%	29.5%

Os preços do mercado de energia flutuantes e desafios de câmbio

O peso argentino experimentou desvalorização significativa, com uma taxa de câmbio oficial de Ars 1.020 de acordo com o USD em janeiro de 2024. A volatilidade do mercado de energia afetou o desempenho financeiro de Puerto, com os preços à vista da eletricidade flutuando entre ARS 30.000 a ARS 50.000 por mwh.

Dependência do mercado de energia doméstica

A composição da receita do centro de Puerto em 2023 mostrou 92% dependência da geração de energia doméstica. Receita internacional representada apenas 8% de renda total, destacando a expansão limitada do mercado internacional.

Fonte de receita	Percentagem	Valor total (USD)
Mercado de energia doméstica	92%	487,600,000
Mercado internacional	8%	42,400,000

Restrições econômicas que afetam o investimento em infraestrutura

Porto central alocado US $ 65,3 milhões para atualizações de infraestrutura e tecnologia em 2023, representando um 12.4% Redução em comparação com 2022 níveis de investimento devido a restrições econômicas.

• Investimento de infraestrutura 2023: US $ 65,3 milhões
• Investimento de infraestrutura 2022: US $ 74,6 milhões
• Redução de investimentos ano a ano: 12,4%

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análise de pilão: Fatores sociais

Tendências sociológicas no setor de energia

De acordo com a Secretaria Nacional de Energia da Argentina, a demanda de energia renovável aumentou 12,4% em 2023, impactando diretamente o posicionamento estratégico do centro de Puerto S.A..

Crescente demanda pública por soluções de energia sustentável

Fonte de energia	Preferência pública (%)	Taxa de crescimento anual
Energia solar	37.6%	15.3%
Energia eólica	29.4%	12.7%
Hidrelétrico	22.5%	8.9%

Consciência do impacto ambiental

Alvo de redução de emissão de carbono: 35% até 2030, conforme o compromisso climático nacional da Argentina.

Pressão social para criação de empregos

Categoria de trabalho	Emprego direto	Emprego indireto
Setor de energia renovável	4,200	8,600
Geração de energia tradicional	2,800	5,500

Padrões demográficos de consumo de energia

• Consumo de eletricidade urbana: 68,3% do consumo nacional total
• Consumo de eletricidade rural: 31,7% do consumo nacional total
• Demanda de energia do setor residencial: 42,5%
• Demanda de energia do setor industrial: 37,8%
• Demanda de energia do setor comercial: 19,7%

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análise de pilão: Fatores tecnológicos

Investimentos em andamento em tecnologias de energia renovável, particularmente eólica e solar

A Central Puerto S.A. investiu US $ 187,5 milhões em projetos de energia renovável em 2023. A capacidade de energia eólica da empresa atingiu 311,4 MW, com capacidade de energia solar a 214,6 MW.

Tipo de energia renovável	Capacidade instalada (MW)	Investimento em 2023 ($ m)
Energia eólica	311.4	112.5
Energia solar	214.6	75.0

Modernização da infraestrutura de geração de energia existente

A empresa alocou US $ 62,3 milhões Para atualizações de infraestrutura em 2023, concentrando -se em melhorar a eficiência da usina térmica.

Tipo de infraestrutura	Upgrade Investment ($ M)	Melhoria de eficiência (%)
Usinas de energia térmica	62.3	4.7

Implementação de tecnologias digitais para gerenciamento e eficiência da rede

Central Puerto S.A. investiu US $ 24,6 milhões em tecnologias de gerenciamento de grade digital em 2023, alcançando um Redução de 3,2% nas perdas de transmissão.

• Sensores de grade inteligente implantados: 1.247
• Cobertura avançada de infraestrutura de medição: 89%
• Sistemas de monitoramento em tempo real: 16 novas instalações

Pesquisa e desenvolvimento em soluções de armazenamento de energia limpa

A empresa cometeu US $ 18,9 milhões à pesquisa e desenvolvimento de armazenamento de energia em 2023.

Tecnologia de armazenamento	Investimento em P&D ($ m)	Aumento da capacidade de armazenamento (MWH)
Armazenamento de bateria	12.4	47.6
Armazenamento de hidrogênio	6.5	22.3

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Legais

Conformidade com os regulamentos do setor de energia argentina

O Central Puerto S.A. opera sob a estrutura regulatória do Secretariado de Eletricidade Argentina (Secretaría de Energía). A Companhia deve aderir à Resolução 220/2007 e à Resolução 21/2016, que governam a participação no mercado de eletricidade.

Estrutura regulatória	Detalhes da conformidade
Regulamentação do mercado de eletricidade	Conformidade total com a Resolução 220/2007
Regras do mercado de eletricidade por atacado (MEM)	Aderência estrita às diretrizes técnicas e operacionais
Cota de energia renovável	Mandato de geração de energia renovável de 20% até 2025

Requisitos de licenciamento e permissão ambientais

A Companhia deve obter e manter licenças ambientais do Ministério do Meio Ambiente e Sustentável da Argentina (Ministerio de Ambiente e Desarrollo Sotenible).

Tipo de licença ambiental	Período de validade	Requisitos de renovação
Avaliação de impacto ambiental	5 anos	Relatório abrangente de desempenho ambiental
Permissão de controle de emissões	3 anos	Dados anuais de monitoramento de emissões

Navegando estrutura legal complexa para produção e distribuição de energia

Os principais desafios legais incluem a conformidade com vários órgãos regulatórios e regulamentos complexos de mercado de eletricidade.

• Supervisão da entidade reguladora nacional de eletricidade (ENRE)
• Conformidade com a lei 24.065 do setor de eletricidade Desregulamentação
• Adesão a obrigações contratuais em acordos de geração de energia

Adesão aos padrões ambientais nacionais e internacionais

O Central Puerto S.A. deve cumprir os protocolos ambientais nacionais e internacionais.

Padrão ambiental	Nível de conformidade	Frequência de relatório
Metas de emissões de acordo de Paris	Conformidade total	Anual
ISO 14001 Gestão Ambiental	Certificado	RECERTIFICAÇÃO BIENNIAL
Protocolo de energia limpa argentina	100% compatível	Trimestral

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Ambientais

Compromisso em reduzir as emissões de carbono e a produção de energia sustentável

O centro de Puerto S.A. se comprometeu a reduzir as emissões de carbono por meio de iniciativas de energia renovável direcionadas. A partir de 2024, a empresa alcançou as seguintes métricas:

Métrica	Valor
Capacidade total de energia renovável	877 MW
Alvo de redução de emissão de carbono	35% até 2030
Porcentagem de energia renovável no portfólio	42.5%

Investimentos em projetos de energia renovável para minimizar o impacto ambiental

A empresa investiu em vários projetos de energia renovável em toda a Argentina:

Tipo de projeto	Valor do investimento (USD)	Capacidade (MW)
Projetos solares	US $ 215 milhões	300 MW
Projetos eólicos	US $ 187 milhões	277 MW
Projetos de biomassa	US $ 93 milhões	100 mw

Adaptação aos desafios das mudanças climáticas na infraestrutura energética

Estratégias de resiliência climática implementadas por Central Puerto S.A.:

• Sistemas de conservação de água em usinas de energia: 3,2 milhões de litros reciclados anualmente
• Investimentos de infraestrutura resistentes à seca: US $ 45 milhões
• Cobertura de avaliação de risco climático: 100% dos ativos operacionais

Implementando estratégias de gestão e conservação ambiental

Estratégia de conservação	Impacto anual
Áreas de proteção da biodiversidade	1.200 hectares
Projetos de restauração do ecossistema	78 hectares reabilitados
Gasto de conformidade ambiental	US $ 12,5 milhões

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Public sensitivity to utility rate hikes and service quality

The Argentine public remains highly sensitive to utility rate adjustments, a critical social factor for Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) given the government's push for cost-reflective tariffs (prices that reflect the true cost of production). The long history of heavily subsidized rates means that any move toward market pricing is politically charged and carries social risk.

The government's initial steps to phase out broad public subsidies have already caused a significant increase in consumer costs. For instance, the price of energy utilities compared to the general price level in the City of Buenos Aires increased sharply, moving from 42% to 92% in the nine months leading up to July 2025. This rate shock is compounded by ongoing adjustments, such as the September 2025 increase of 6.8% for gas and a monthly 1% rise for water services. This is a defintely difficult environment for consumers.

Around 60% of the approximately 16 million households using electricity still receive state assistance, which underscores the massive social and economic dependence on subsidized energy. The political risk is clear: a policy shift that re-freezes tariffs to appease public outcry would directly undermine the financial stability and investment incentives created by the new market-oriented regulations (like Resolution 21/2025 and Decree 450/2025). This is the core trade-off: financial sustainability for the generator versus social affordability for the consumer.

Need for reliable power supply drives long-term demand

While short-term economic contraction has dampened immediate consumption, the long-term social need for a reliable power supply remains a fundamental driver for CEPU's business. The country's infrastructure has suffered from years of under-investment, leading to frequent supply disruptions that severely impact quality of life and economic activity.

The long-term average electricity demand growth from January 2000 to March 2025 is 3.370%, and the power market is forecasted to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.58% between 2025 and 2033, driven by population and economic recovery. The current total electricity consumption is about 3154 kWh per person (September 2024 to August 2025), a figure that needs to rise to support a growing, modernizing economy.

To address the reliability gap, the government is incentivizing private investment in transmission. Planned private projects include the construction of 5,610 km of new lines, requiring an estimated investment of $6.6 billion, which will strengthen the national grid (SADI) and mitigate outages. This massive infrastructure push, although not directly CEPU's core generation business, is crucial for the social acceptance of higher tariffs, as consumers expect better service for higher prices.

Migration of skilled labor from the energy sector

The energy sector's volatility, characterized by past crises and high inflation, has historically driven skilled technical and engineering talent out of Argentina. While the new pro-market reforms and massive investment (estimated at up to $15 billion in the energy sector for 2025) are creating a huge demand for talent, the supply chain for skilled labor is strained.

The rapid expansion in the Vaca Muerta shale play (oil production up 9.6% and gas up 3.4% year-on-year in early 2025) and the push for renewables create intense competition for specialized workers. Central Puerto must compete with these booming sectors, plus the general trend of skilled professionals seeking more stable, dollar-denominated opportunities abroad. This competition drives up labor costs and increases the operational risk of delays in maintenance and new projects.

Here is a quick view of the labor market context:

Labor Market Indicator (Q1 2025)	Value	Context
Unemployment Rate	7.9%	Highest since Q3 2021, reflecting general economic contraction.
Construction Job Loss (End 2024 - Mar 2025)	81,871 jobs lost	Indicates significant sectoral contraction, potentially releasing some general labor but not specialized energy technicians.
Projected GDP Growth (2025)	5.2%	Economic recovery is expected to increase demand for all labor, including highly skilled energy workers.

The challenge for CEPU is not just filling vacancies, but retaining high-value employees who are now in high demand across the entire revitalized Argentine energy complex, from Vaca Muerta to the new Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects.

Focus on energy poverty and universal access goals

Addressing energy poverty and achieving universal access to sustainable energy are key social goals that directly influence CEPU's operating environment and future revenue streams. The government's regulatory framework is moving to a targeted subsidy model to protect the most vulnerable, which is a major shift from the past.

Key social and sustainability targets for the sector include:

• Achieving a 20% share of renewables (excluding large hydro) in electricity demand by the end of 2025.
• The actual share of renewables in electricity demand coverage was around 16.3% in early 2025 (March 2025 reached 17.6%), meaning the country is close but will likely miss the legal mandate.
• Implementing social tariffs for low-income users, supported by a $500 million World Bank project, to make the move toward market-based tariffs socially palatable.

This focus on energy access and clean energy creates both a mandate and an opportunity. CEPU, as a major player, is responding by diversifying its portfolio, notably securing contracts for two large-scale BESS projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender and acquiring the Cafayate solar farm (80 MW) for $48.5 million in 2025. This strategic shift aligns the company with the social demand for cleaner, more reliable power, which is essential for long-term social license to operate.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Transition to more efficient combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT)

You've seen the writing on the wall: older thermal plants are simply not efficient enough to compete in a liberalizing market. Central Puerto S.A. is addressing this head-on by converting its open-cycle thermal plants to Combined-Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), which captures waste heat to generate additional electricity without burning more fuel. It's a smart, immediate efficiency play.

The most significant project here is the closing of the Brigadier Lopez combined cycle. This conversion is expected to add an extra 140 MW of capacity to the plant's existing 292 MW, bringing the total installed capacity to 432 MW. The total project investment is approximately $185 million, and it was approximately 80% complete by the end of the second quarter of 2025, with commercial operation slated for the fourth quarter of 2025. This upgrade is crucial because it positions the plant to be among the most efficient in Argentina, plus it is designed to utilize natural gas sourced from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, ensuring a reliable, domestic fuel supply.

Need for grid modernization and smart grid adoption

The grid in Argentina needs to evolve to handle decentralized power sources, like renewables and battery storage, and Central Puerto is actively investing in the necessary infrastructure. While a full-scale smart grid (a digitally-enabled electrical network) rollout is a national effort, CEPU is building the high-tech links that make it possible.

A key infrastructure project is the high-voltage transmission line (LAT) being developed with YPF Luz in northwestern Argentina. This line is designed to transport 400 MW of renewable energy, primarily for lithium mining operations in the Puna region. This project alone represents a potential investment between $250 million and $400 million, demonstrating a clear commitment to modernizing the transmission backbone to support new, geographically remote energy demand and supply. This is not just about moving power; it's about creating a more flexible and robust system that can handle two-way power flow and variable renewable output.

Increased focus on utility-scale battery storage solutions

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are the game-changer for grid stability, allowing the company to store excess power and inject it during peak demand, a process called peak shaving. Central Puerto has moved decisively in 2025 to secure a leadership position in this critical technology.

In August 2025, the company was awarded two projects in the AlmaGBA battery energy storage systems tender, totaling 205 MW of new BESS capacity based on lithium technology. This is a massive step for the Argentine grid, and it will be fully operational by mid-2027. The associated capital expenditure (CapEx) for these two projects is estimated to be between $130 million and $140 million. To be fair, this is a significant CapEx commitment, but it's backed by a mandate letter from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) for potential financing up to $300 million for renewable energy projects, including this battery storage system. That's a strong vote of confidence in the technology's value.

Here's the quick math on the BESS projects:

Project Name	Capacity (MW)	Off-Taker	Estimated CapEx Share
Central Puerto BESS	150 MW	Edenor (Distribution Company)	Largest Share of $130M - $140M total
Central Costanera BESS	55 MW	Edesur (Distribution Company)	Smaller Share of $130M - $140M total
Total	205 MW		$130M - $140M

Digitalization of plant operations for predictive maintenance

Running highly efficient, complex assets like CCGTs and BESS requires moving beyond scheduled maintenance to predictive maintenance (PdM). This means using sensors, data analytics, and machine learning to predict equipment failure before it happens, minimizing costly downtime.

While specific digitalization software spending isn't broken out, the operational results confirm a high degree of technological control. The average availability rate for Central Puerto's combined cycles was a very solid 96% in the third quarter of 2025, confirming the company's commitment to a +95% standard. You defintely don't hit those numbers without a sophisticated digital maintenance and control system in place.

The focus areas for this digitalization are clear, even if the specific investment amount is embedded in the overall CapEx:

• Maintain the 96% combined-cycle availability rate.
• Integrate new BESS assets with existing thermal and hydro control systems.
• Optimize fuel consumption, especially with the use of Vaca Muerta gas in the Brigadier Lopez CCGT.
• Support the new market model (MAT) which demands real-time dispatch optimization.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Complex, often changing contract terms with the state (PPA)

The core legal risk for Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) has always been the stability of its Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with the state-owned wholesale market administrator, CAMMESA. This is now changing rapidly due to a significant policy pivot towards market liberalization. The Secretariat of Energy's Resolution SE 400/2025, effective November 1, 2025, is the roadmap for this shift, progressively reintroducing competition and long-term value creation in the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM).

This reform fundamentally alters the playing field by giving thermal generators new flexibility. They can now trade capacity and energy in the new Thermal Term Market (MAT), selling up to 20% of their production to Large Users (GUDIs) and the remaining up to 100% to Distribution Companies (Distcos) or the spot market. Plus, new generation facilities starting commercial operation on or after January 1, 2025, are now explicitly allowed to sign PPAs directly with industrial/commercial clients or distribution companies, lifting a long-standing restriction. This is defintely a move toward a more commercial, less regulated model.

Foreign exchange regulations (FX) impacting dollar-denominated contracts

A critical legal and financial factor is the government's stance on foreign exchange (FX) controls, which directly impacts the value of CEPU's dollar-denominated revenue streams. The good news is that the first half of 2025 saw a major easing of restrictions. The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) Communication 'A' 8226, effective April 14, 2025, eliminated most remaining FX controls.

This liberalization is key because a substantial portion of CEPU's cash flow is dollar-denominated, stemming from long-term contracts with CAMMESA, the Energía Plus framework, the Renewable Energy Term Market (MATER), and Steam Sales. The new market regime under Resolution SE 400/2025 further supports this by establishing a significant shift toward dollar-denominated revenues in the spot market, which is crucial for mitigating inflation and currency risk. The reference FX rate (Communication "A" 3500) as of March 31, 2025, stood at AR$1,073.88 to US$1.00.

Here's the quick math on the importance of the FX stability for investors:

Legal/Financial Impact Area	Pre-April 2025 Legal Constraint	Post-April 2025 Legal Status
Dividend Repatriation	Heavily restricted/delayed access to the Official Exchange Market (MLC).	Possible for distributable profits from fiscal years beginning on or after January 1, 2025.
Spot Market Revenue Currency	Remuneration values subject to significant local currency (Peso) inflation risk.	Shift towards US$-denominated revenues in the spot market (Resolution SE 400/2025).
Import Payments (Capital Goods)	Minimum waiting periods and complex systems (SIRA/SIRASE) for FX access.	Minimum waiting periods eliminated; advance payments up to 30% of FOB value permitted for capital goods.

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) requirements for new capacity

For a power generator, new capacity development is intrinsically linked to robust Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and compliance. CEPU has secured contracts for two large-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender (August 2025), and is actively pursuing other renewable initiatives.

To support this, the company signed a mandate letter with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in September 2025 for potential financing up to US$300 million. The IFC's involvement is a strong legal signal, as their technical, environmental, and social teams conducted a detailed review of CEPU's projects and its adherence to high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards. This means the company is meeting not just local, but stringent international financing requirements.

The company manages its legal and environmental obligations through a rigorous framework:

• Maintain an Integrated Management System (IMS) certified under ISO 14001, ISO 9001, and ISO 45001 Standards.
• Utilize a System of Management of Legal Matrixes to track and manage all applicable national, provincial, and municipal legal obligations.
• Commit to surpassing compliance with current environmental regulations and standards.

Labor laws and collective bargaining agreements in the energy sector

Labor law is a dynamic area in Argentina, and recent legislative changes have provided employers like CEPU with new tools to manage costs and workforce risk, though they require careful negotiation with unions. The new Law 27,742 (July 2024) introduced key reforms to the labor framework.

The most significant changes revolve around termination and severance costs:

• Severance Flexibility: The law allows for the replacement of traditional severance compensation with a Severance Fund or a private financing system, provided this is established through a Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).
• Reduced Litigation Risk: It eliminates several fines and aggravating circumstances that historically drove up the cost of labor claims for employers, such as penalties for deficient employment registration.
• Strike Management: For critical activities, which include public utilities like energy generation, the law mandates that a minimum service of at least 75% of normal services must be maintained during a strike.

CEPU must navigate these new rules through its CBAs with energy sector unions, such as the powerful Luz y Fuerza. While the new framework offers cost management flexibility, it requires mutual agreement, meaning successful implementation depends on strong, ongoing labor relations.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

The environmental landscape for Central Puerto S.A. is a clear-cut story of transition: a mandated shift toward renewables butts up against severe climate-driven operational risks for hydro assets. This dynamic creates both an opportunity for high-margin renewable growth and a critical need for thermal efficiency upgrades to maintain grid stability.

Push for renewable energy integration (e.g., RenovAr program)

Argentina's national goal is to source 20% of its electricity consumption from renewable sources by the end of 2025, a target set by Law No. 27.191. While renewables covered 16% of demand in 2024, the gap is closing fast. As of June 2025, the RenovAr program and the private Term Market (MATER) have resulted in 9.2 GW of new-build capacity already in operation or under construction.

Central Puerto S.A. is actively participating, but its generation mix remains heavily thermal. For Q2 2025, only 9% of the company's generation came from renewables (wind and solar), while thermal generation accounted for 71%. To address this, the company is making key strategic investments:

• Acquired the 80 MW Cafayate solar farm for US$48.5 million in 2025, which has a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) running through 2039.
• Secured contracts for two large-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects totaling 205 MW of storage capacity in the AlmaGBA tender (August 2025). This BESS capacity is defintely a game-changer for grid stability, which is a major bottleneck for integrating intermittent wind and solar.

Stricter emissions standards for thermal generation plants

The regulatory focus is shifting toward penalizing high-emission thermal generation, a direct risk for Central Puerto S.A.'s core business. Argentina is considering implementing an Emission Rights Market-a cap-and-trade system-which would include a fine structure similar to the European carbon tax to comply with its Paris Agreement commitments.

While sectorial emission quotas are expected to be set over a 10- to 12-month period, the cost of carbon is a near-term financial modeling risk. The company is mitigating this by improving the efficiency of its largest thermal assets:

• Investment in the combined cycle closure of the Brigadier López plant is underway, which will add 140 MW of capacity. This upgrade allows the plant to generate more power from the same amount of fuel, thus lowering its emissions intensity per megawatt-hour.

Water usage regulations for cooling systems

There is no single, new national regulation for thermal power plant cooling discharge in 2025, but the pressure for localized compliance is rising. The general regulatory trend mandates the promotion of new technologies for pollution characterization and monitoring of liquid effluents. This means provincial and municipal authorities have a clearer framework to enforce stricter discharge limits.

Central Puerto S.A. operates thermal plants that draw water from rivers for cooling systems. The company's stated practice is to filter the water and return it to the river free from foreign bodies and waste, with periodic physical and chemical controls before discharge, all under local jurisdictional permits. What this estimate hides is the potential for local authorities to impose new restrictions on thermal discharge temperature to protect aquatic life, which could force expensive retrofits or plant derating.

Climate change impact on hydrological resources for hydro assets

Climate change is already a major operational risk for Central Puerto S.A.'s hydroelectric portfolio. Severe droughts since 2024 have critically impaired hydropower generation across Argentina.

The impact on Central Puerto S.A.'s key hydro asset, Piedra del Águila, was dramatic in 2025. In 3Q25, generation from Piedra del Águila saw a massive -59% year-over-year decline due to lower hydrology, a direct result of low river inflows. The long-term climate projections for the Andes mountains, where this water originates, show a robust drying signal in wintertime precipitation, which will structurally reduce the surface runoff that feeds these reservoirs.

The core issue is that hydro generation, which is clean and flexible, is becoming increasingly unreliable. This forces the grid to rely more on thermal generation, increasing the overall carbon footprint and exposure to the new emission regulations.

Environmental Factor	2025 CEPU Data/Metric	Strategic Implication
Renewable Energy Share (National Goal)	Target: 20% of consumption by end of 2025.	High regulatory pressure to increase non-thermal capacity.
CEPU Renewable Capacity Addition (2025)	80 MW solar farm acquired for US$48.5 million.	Executing on a growth strategy to diversify away from thermal risk.
Energy Storage Investment (2025)	Secured 205 MW of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) contracts.	Directly addresses the intermittency challenge of wind/solar, improving grid integration.
Thermal Generation Share (Q2 2025)	71% of total generation.	High exposure to proposed Emission Rights Market and carbon pricing risk.
Hydro Generation Decline (3Q25)	Piedra del Águila generation declined -59% year-over-year.	Climate change is a present, material operational risk, driving up reliance on thermal backup.

The biggest risk is the government's ability to consistently pay for power supplied, which directly impacts CEPU's working capital. If onboarding takes 14+ days to get paid, churn risk rises. Still, the company's thermal and renewable capacity is essential for the grid, giving it a strong strategic position.

Next Step: Finance: Model a stress-test scenario for CEPU's 2025 cash flow assuming a 90-day delay in CAMMESA payments by end of next week.