Cosan S.A. (CSAN): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

En el panorama dinámico de la energía renovable, Cosan S.A. surge como un jugador fundamental que navega por las complejas intersecciones de sostenibilidad, innovación y crecimiento estratégico. Este análisis de mortero presenta el entorno externo multifacético que da forma a la trayectoria de la Compañía, explorando cómo el apoyo político, las fluctuaciones económicas, los cambios sociales, los avances tecnológicos, los marcos legales y los compromisos ambientales influyen colectivamente en el notable viaje de Cosan en el sector de biocombustible y energía de Brasil. Coloque en una exploración integral que revele los complejos desafíos y oportunidades que impulsan esta empresa innovadora.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

Políticas de energía renovable del gobierno brasileño que apoyan el sector de biocombustibles

A partir de 2024, la política de Renovabio de Brasil exige un Reducción del 13,5% en emisiones de carbono A través del uso de biocombustibles. La política nacional de biocombustibles requiere que los distribuidores de combustible compren créditos de descarbonización (CBIOS) para cumplir con los objetivos de reducción de emisiones específicos.

Parámetro de política	Especificación 2024
Mezcla de biocombustibles obligatoria en gasolina	27% de contenido de etanol
Objetivo anual de CBIOS	35.8 millones de créditos
Inversión gubernamental en sector de biocombustibles	R $ 1.2 mil millones

Estabilidad política que impacta las estrategias de inversión y expansión

El entorno político de Brasil demuestra estabilidad relativa con Políticas consistentes a favor de las empresas en el sector de energía renovable.

• Índice de riesgos políticos: 4.2/10 (menor calificación de riesgo)
• Inversión extranjera directa en el sector energético: $ 8.5 mil millones en 2023
• Puntuación de previsibilidad regulatoria: 7.1/10

Cambios potenciales en las regulaciones fiscales

Categoría de impuestos	Tasa actual	Cambio potencial
Impuesto de producción de etanol	12%	Potencial reducción al 10%
Impuesto de exportación de azúcar	8%	Posible estabilización

Incentivos gubernamentales para el desarrollo de energía sostenible

El gobierno brasileño proporciona incentivos sustanciales para proyectos de energía sostenible.

• Exenciones fiscales: hasta el 75% para inversiones de energía renovable
• Financiamiento de interés bajo: R $ 500 millones asignados para proyectos de energía verde
• Cuota de subasta de energía renovable: 2.5 GW de capacidad de bioenergía

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

Los precios globales de los productos de azúcar y etanol de azúcar y etanol afectan directamente los ingresos

Los precios globales del azúcar a partir de enero de 2024 son de $ 0.2548 por libra. El precio de etanol muestra una volatilidad significativa, con un etanol anhidro brasileño con un promedio de R $ 3.20 por litro en diciembre de 2023.

Producto	Precio (2024)	Variación de precios
Azúcar (por libra)	$0.2548	+4.2% interanual
Etanol (por litro)	R $ 3.20	+3.7% interanual

La volatilidad del tipo de cambio real brasileño afecta la competitividad internacional

Tipo de cambio real (BRL) brasileño contra USD: 1 USD = R $ 4.93 a partir de enero de 2024. Índice de volatilidad monetaria medido en 12.5% ​​durante el último trimestre.

Metría métrica	Valor
Tasa de USD/BRL	1 USD = R $ 4.93
Índice de volatilidad monetaria	12.5%

Recuperación económica y desempeño del sector agrícola influir en el crecimiento empresarial

El crecimiento del PIB agrícola de Brasil se proyectó en 2.8% para 2024. La producción de caña de azúcar se estima en 370 millones de toneladas métricas en la cosecha 2023/2024.

Indicador económico	2024 proyección
Crecimiento del PIB agrícola	2.8%
Producción de caña de azúcar	370 millones de toneladas métricas

Inversiones de infraestructura continua en los sectores de transporte y logística de Brasil

Inversión en infraestructura en el sector de transporte estimada en R $ 58.4 mil millones para 2024. El índice de eficiencia logística mejoró a 3.2 de 5.0.

Infraestructura métrica	Valor 2024
Inversión en transporte	R $ 58.4 mil millones
Índice de eficiencia logística	3.2/5.0

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

Aumento de la conciencia del consumidor de las soluciones de energía sostenible

Según un informe de la Compañía de Investigación de Energía Brasileña (EPE) de 2023, la conciencia de energía renovable entre los consumidores brasileños aumentó a 78.5% en 2023, con un 62.3% expresando su disposición a pagar una prima por soluciones de energía sostenible.

Segmento de consumo	Conciencia de sostenibilidad (%)	Disposición para pagar la prima (%)
Población urbana	82.4	67.1
Población rural	61.7	45.6

Creciente demanda de alternativas renovables y de energía limpia

Se proyecta que el mercado de energía renovable brasileña alcanzará los $ 124.5 mil millones para 2025, con una tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (CAGR) de 7.3% de 2023 a 2025.

Fuente de energía	Acción de mercado 2023 (%)	Cuota de mercado proyectada 2025 (%)
Etanol	27.6	32.4
Solar	12.3	18.7

Cambio en las expectativas de la fuerza laboral hacia la responsabilidad ambiental y social

Una encuesta de 2023 LinkedIn reveló que el 73.5% de los profesionales brasileños priorizan el trabajo para empresas con fuertes credenciales ambientales, sociales y de gobierno (ESG).

Grupo de edad profesional	Prioridad de ESG (%)
18-34 años	81.2
35-50 años	68.7

Patrones de consumo de clase media al aumento en Brasil

Se espera que los hogares brasileños de clase media alcancen 139.5 millones de personas para 2025, con un ingreso disponible anual promedio de $ 12,600.

Soporte de ingresos	Tamaño de la población (millones)	Ingresos disponibles anuales promedio ($)
Clase media baja	68.3	7,200
Clase media alta	71.2	18,500

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Innovación continua en el procesamiento de la caña de azúcar y las tecnologías de producción de biocombustibles

Cosan S.A. invirtió R $ 124.7 millones en investigación y desarrollo tecnológico en 2022. Las innovaciones tecnológicas de la Compañía incluyen procesos de hidrólisis enzimática avanzados que aumentan la eficiencia de conversión de etanol en un 12,5% en comparación con los métodos tradicionales.

Tecnología	Mejora de la eficiencia	Inversión (r $)
Hidrólisis enzimática	12.5%	38.6 millones
Fermentación avanzada	9.3%	45.2 millones
Agricultura de precisión	7.8%	40.9 millones

Implementación avanzada de logística y tecnología de distribución

Cosan desplegado Sistemas de gestión de flotas habilitados para IoT En 672 vehículos logísticos, reduciendo los costos de transporte en un 16,3% y mejorando la eficiencia de optimización de rutas.

Tecnología	Número de vehículos	Reducción de costos
Gestión de flotas de IoT	672	16.3%
Seguimiento de GPS	512	11.7%

Inversión en transformación digital y automatización de procesos agrícolas

Cosan implementó la tecnología de drones autónomos en 84,000 hectáreas, lo que permite técnicas agrícolas de precisión que redujeron el consumo de agua en un 22,6% y aumentaron el rendimiento del cultivo en un 14,9%.

• Cobertura de drones: 84,000 hectáreas
• Reducción del consumo de agua: 22.6%
• Aumento del rendimiento del cultivo: 14.9%

Investigación y desarrollo en soluciones de energía renovable de próxima generación

La Compañía asignó R $ 186.3 millones para la investigación avanzada de energía renovable en 2022, centrándose en el etanol de segunda generación y las tecnologías avanzadas de biocombustibles.

Área de investigación	Inversión (r $)	Ganancia de eficiencia esperada
Etanol de segunda generación	86.4 millones	18.7%
Biocombustibles avanzados	62.9 millones	15.3%
Investigación de combustible de hidrógeno	37.0 millones	12.5%

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Cumplimiento de las regulaciones ambientales y agrícolas brasileñas

En 2023, Cosan S.A. estuvo sujeto a la renovabio de la regulación ambiental brasileña, que exige a los productores de biocombustibles a cumplir objetivos específicos de reducción de crédito de carbono. Las métricas de cumplimiento de la compañía para 2023 se detallan en la siguiente tabla:

Métrico regulatorio	Porcentaje de cumplimiento	Reglamentario
Generación de crédito de carbono	98.6%	Marco de Renovabio
Adherencia a la licencia ambiental	100%	Resolución de Conama 237
Gestión de residuos agrícolas	96.3%	Política agrícola brasileña

Navegar por marcos complejos fiscales y de gobierno corporativo

Métricas de cumplimiento fiscal para 2023:

• Tasa de impuestos corporativos efectivos: 34.2%
• Pagos de impuestos totales: R $ 1.2 mil millones
• Cumplimiento de precios de transferencia: 100%

Adherencia a los estándares internacionales de sostenibilidad y emisión de carbono

Estándar internacional	Nivel de cumplimiento	Cuerpo de verificación
ISO 14001: 2015	Totalmente cumplido	Oficina Veritas
Protocolo de GEA	99.7% de precisión de informes	Instituto de Recursos Mundiales
Objetivos de desarrollo de la ONU sostenible	8 de 17 goles directamente abordados	Naciones Unidas

Desafíos regulatorios en sectores de biocombustibles y energía renovable

Inversión de cumplimiento regulatorio para 2023: R $ 87.5 millones dedicados a cumplir con las regulaciones de biocombustibles y energías renovables en evolución.

Área reguladora	Inversión de cumplimiento	Impacto regulatorio
Estándares de producción de etanol	R $ 42.3 millones	Resolución ANP 758/2018
Certificación de energía renovable	R $ 25.6 millones	Resolución normativa anel 482
Reducción de emisiones de carbono	R $ 19.6 millones	Compromisos de acuerdo de París

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Compromiso con prácticas agrícolas sostenibles

Cosan S.A. informó 2,193,000 hectáreas de cultivo de caña de azúcar en 2023, con el 100% de las operaciones agrícolas certificadas por los estándares de sostenibilidad de bonsucro. La compañía implementó tecnologías agrícolas de precisión en el 87% de su gestión de cultivos, reduciendo el consumo de agua en un 22.5% por tonelada de caña de azúcar procesada.

Métrica de sostenibilidad	2023 rendimiento
Tierra agrícola total	2,193,000 hectáreas
Certificación de bonsucro	100%
Cobertura agrícola de precisión	87%
Reducción del consumo de agua	22.5%

Reducción de la huella de carbono a través de la producción de energía renovable

En 2023, Cosan generó 1,456 MW de energía renovable a través de bagos de caña de azúcar y biogás, compensando 672,000 toneladas métricas de emisiones de CO2. La compañía invirtió R $ 328 millones en infraestructura de energía renovable.

Métrica de energía renovable	2023 datos
Generación de energía renovable	1.456 MW
Compensación de emisiones de CO2	672,000 toneladas métricas
Inversión en infraestructura	R $ 328 millones

Implementación de principios de economía circular en operaciones comerciales

Cosan logró una tasa de reciclaje de residuos del 92% en sus operaciones en 2023, con el 98% de los subproductos de caña de azúcar reutilizados para la producción de energía o aplicaciones industriales. La compañía redujo la generación de residuos industriales en un 17,4% en comparación con 2022.

Métrica de economía circular	2023 rendimiento
Tasa de reciclaje de residuos	92%
Reutilización de subproducto de la caña de azúcar	98%
Reducción de la generación de residuos	17.4%

Estrategias de conservación de biodiversidad y uso de la tierra

Cosan conservó 46,500 hectáreas de vegetación nativa en 2023, lo que representa el 21.2% de su cartera total de tierras. La compañía restauró 3.200 hectáreas de tierras degradadas e implementó programas de monitoreo de biodiversidad en el 95% de sus territorios agrícolas.

Métrica de conservación de la biodiversidad	2023 datos
Conservación de la vegetación nativa	46,500 hectáreas
Porcentaje de cartera total de tierras	21.2%
Restauración de tierras	3.200 hectáreas
Cobertura de monitoreo de biodiversidad	95%

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

You're looking at Cosan S.A. and wondering how big societal shifts-from what people buy to how they view the planet-will actually impact the bottom line. The short answer is: these social trends are a powerful tailwind, especially for the company's ethanol and natural gas segments, but they also create a clear mandate for operational transparency and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance.

This isn't just about good PR; it's about market growth. The global push for sustainability is directly expanding the addressable market for Cosan's core products, and its subsidiary Compass Gás e Energia is capitalizing on Brazil's urbanization and energy needs with strong customer and earnings growth.

Growing global demand for sugar and ethanol, especially in emerging economies

The world's appetite for both sugar and ethanol, particularly in rapidly developing nations, is a fundamental driver for Cosan's Raízen joint venture. Global sugar consumption is projected to climb by 1.2% per year over the next decade, with Asia and Africa accounting for the vast majority of that growth, driven by rising incomes and urbanization. This means a sustained, long-term demand floor for one of Raízen's key products.

For ethanol, the story is even stronger. The global sugarcane alcohol market is projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2025 to 2033. For Cosan, which is based in Brazil, this is critical, as Brazil's biofuel consumption alone is projected to increase by 5% in 2025. This growth is a direct result of emerging economies seeking both energy security and cleaner transportation fuels. The total global sugarcane market size is an estimated $50 billion in 2025, showing the sheer scale of the opportunity.

Increased consumer focus on sustainability is driving biofuel market expansion

The consumer and regulatory push for sustainability is defintely transforming the energy landscape, moving biofuels from a niche product to a mainstream necessity. The global biofuel market was valued at $145.3 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10.7% from 2025 to 2034. That's a huge growth rate, and it's driven by corporate sustainability efforts and government mandates to decarbonize the transport sector.

For example, the production capacity for sustainable fuels like renewable diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)-where Cosan's products play a role-is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% between 2025 and 2035. This trend creates a premium market for Raízen's low-carbon ethanol, which is a key component in the global energy transition.

Compass is seeing healthier margins from increased participation in the residential natural gas segment

Brazil's ongoing urbanization and the push for cleaner, more convenient energy in homes is directly benefiting Compass Gás e Energia. The residential natural gas segment is a high-margin business, and Compass is expanding its customer base significantly. The company reached 2.9 million customers in 2024, and this consistent pace of connections is translating directly into better earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

Here's the quick math: Compass's full-year 2024 distribution segment EBITDA grew by 12% to R$4,579 million compared to 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), natural gas distribution volumes were up 9% year-over-year, with the residential segment being a key contributor to that volume recovery. This segment is a steady generator of cash flow, which helps balance the volatility of the commodity-focused Raízen.

The company's ESG Vision 2030 guides strategy and stakeholder relations

Cosan's commitment to its sustainability strategy, Vision ESG 2030, is a non-negotiable social factor, influencing everything from capital allocation to talent retention. This framework is what links the company's operations to stakeholder expectations, managing risks and opportunities across its diverse portfolio.

The Vision ESG 2030 is structured around three core pillars:

• Tracking Progress: Monitoring business evolution against specific ESG metrics.
• Fostering Collaboration: Promoting internal synergies on climate and social initiatives.
• Ensuring Transparency: Consolidating and openly communicating ESG performance data.

The company is putting its money where its mouth is; ESG goals have been linked to the variable compensation of executives and employees since the end of 2023. This is a crucial step for accountability. Also, the company's performance in key ratings shows its progress and the room for improvement:

ESG Rating/Index	Cosan S.A. 2024 Score/Rating	Significance
CDP (Climate Change)	B	Indicates good management of climate-related issues.
Compass CDP Score	A-List (2023)	Top-tier global recognition for climate performance.
Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating	34.2	Higher score indicates higher risk; shows need for continued focus.
ESG Compensation Linkage	Implemented for most employees (since end of 2023)	Links financial incentives to sustainability performance.

The next step is for the executive team to ensure the ESG aspects are fully integrated into new business and investment assessments, a plan already in place for 2024. This shows that social factors are now a core part of the capital allocation decision-making process.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Continued investment in second-generation (2G) ethanol to boost production and cut costs.

Cosan, primarily through its subsidiary Raízen, is defintely pushing hard on second-generation (2G) ethanol, which is a major technological differentiator. This advanced biofuel is made from sugarcane bagasse and straw-waste products from first-generation ethanol-meaning it doesn't compete with food crops for land. It's a pure efficiency play.

The core of this strategy is the expansion of Raízen's Bioenergia plants. The goal is to dramatically scale up capacity. For instance, the expected total 2G ethanol production capacity across Raízen's portfolio is projected to reach approximately XXX million liters per year by the end of the 2025 fiscal year, up from its current level. This scale-up is crucial for reducing the production cost per liter, making 2G ethanol competitive even without significant government subsidies.

Here's the quick math: higher volume lowers fixed costs per unit. This technology is a game-changer for sustainability and cost control.

Use of advanced data analytics for operational efficiency in logistics (Rumo) and energy.

The use of advanced data analytics, or what we call 'Big Data,' is no longer optional; it's the engine for margin expansion across Cosan's diverse portfolio. In the energy sector (Raízen), this means using predictive models to optimize sugar cane harvesting schedules, manage ethanol and sugar inventory, and forecast energy demand in real-time.

For Rumo, the logistics arm, data analytics is transforming rail operations. They use sensors and machine learning algorithms to predict equipment failure, optimize train speed and fuel consumption, and manage complex network traffic. This proactive maintenance reduces costly downtime and improves asset utilization.

The impact on operational metrics is clear:

• Predictive Maintenance: Cuts unplanned locomotive downtime by an estimated YY%.
• Fuel Efficiency: Optimizes train routing to save an estimated ZZZ million liters of diesel annually.
• Inventory Management: Reduces working capital tied up in slow-moving stock by WW%.

Rumo's rail and logistics segment saw a 4% rise in EBITDA from higher transported volumes.

The investment in technology directly translates to better financial performance in Rumo. The rail and logistics segment reported a rise in Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA), largely driven by higher transported volumes and improved operational efficiency from digital tools. Specifically, Rumo saw a 4% rise in EBITDA for the most recent reporting period, a clear sign the tech investments are paying off.

This growth is tied to the successful integration of their new digital traffic control systems and the expansion of their rail network capacity. The total volume of cargo transported by Rumo in the 2025 fiscal year is expected to be around XXX billion Net Ton-Kilometers (NTK), a significant increase that the technology helped manage without proportional growth in operating costs.

To be fair, this 4% growth is solid, but it also reflects broader economic recovery and strong agricultural exports from Brazil.

Rumo S.A. (Logistics) Key Operational Metrics (FY 2025 Estimate)	Value	Change from FY 2024
Adjusted EBITDA (R$ billions)	XXX	4%
Total Transported Volume (Billion NTK)	XXX	YY%
Average Train Speed (km/h)	ZZ	W%

Adoption of digital tools to streamline the holding company and generate efficiencys.

Beyond the operating subsidiaries, Cosan S.A. itself is adopting digital tools to streamline its corporate structure and improve capital allocation. The focus is on implementing a unified Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system and advanced financial planning and analysis (FP&A) software across the group.

This consolidation aims to improve transparency and speed up decision-making. By standardizing reporting metrics and automating compliance checks, the holding company can free up analyst time-estimated to be a saving of XXX thousand man-hours annually-to focus on strategic growth initiatives rather than manual data reconciliation.

The goal is a leaner, faster corporate center. This push for efficiency is expected to reduce the holding company's general and administrative (G&A) expenses by W% in the 2025 fiscal year, translating to a saving of approximately R$ XXX million.

The digital transformation is a continuous, group-wide mandate.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

New Brazilian environmental permitting framework (signed in August 2025) aims to standardize and accelerate licensing

You need to know that the regulatory environment for large-scale projects in Brazil is shifting, and for a major player like Cosan S.A., this is a double-edged sword. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed the new national environmental permitting framework into law in August 2025, after issuing 63 vetoes to parts of the text approved by Congress. The core goal is positive for business: to standardize licensing requirements across the national territory and establish clear, concrete deadlines for environmental agencies to grant permits, which previously lacked fixed timelines.

This standardization is crucial for Cosan's diverse operations-from sugar and ethanol production to natural gas distribution and logistics-which span multiple states, each historically having its own unique and often slow licensing process. The new law is defintely a push for predictability in sectors like infrastructure and agribusiness.

Legal uncertainty from a recently approved bill that could weaken environmental licensing rules

But here's the near-term risk: the new framework, which was approved by Congress as Bill 2,159/2021 in July 2025, still carries significant legal uncertainty. Despite the presidential vetoes, critics argue the remaining legislation weakens constitutional safeguards and is bound to be challenged in the Supreme Court (STF). This creates a high-stakes scenario where the rules of the road for new projects could change again based on a judicial ruling.

Specifically, the new framework allows for simplified licensing, including a fast-track process for certain 'strategic' projects, which some experts warn could erode technical oversight. For a company with a significant environmental footprint, this regulatory flux is a serious concern for long-term project planning and investor relations. I'd map this as a top-tier legal risk for your 2026 capital expenditure plan.

Environmental Licensing Framework (August 2025)	Near-Term Opportunity for Cosan S.A.	Near-Term Risk for Cosan S.A.
Standardization of requirements across Brazil	Accelerated approval for new infrastructure and energy projects (e.g., pipelines, storage).	Increased scrutiny on compliance across all states as standards converge.
Establishment of fixed deadlines for agencies	Predictability in project timelines, reducing the cost of capital tied up in delays.	Potential for legal challenges to the law, leading to project injunctions.
Simplified licensing for some projects	Faster deployment of medium-impact projects in the agribusiness sector.	Reputational damage if simplified process is perceived as 'environmental deregulation.'

Compliance with strict corporate governance rules of B3's Novo Mercado and NYSE (Level 2 ADS)

Cosan S.A.'s commitment to top-tier governance is non-negotiable, driven by its dual listing requirements. The company is listed on the B3's Novo Mercado segment, which demands the highest level of corporate governance in Brazil, including issuing only common shares with full voting rights. Furthermore, since the corporate restructuring in 2021, Cosan operates a Level 2 American Depositary Shares (ADS) program on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker CSAN.

This NYSE listing binds the company to certain rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), adding another layer of rigorous oversight. The ratio for the ADS program is 4 common shares to 1 ADS. This dual compliance structure acts as a strong safeguard for minority shareholders and is a key factor in maintaining the company's access to both domestic and international capital markets. It's a costly but essential part of their operating model.

Comprehensive Compliance Program with six pillars, including Anticorruption and an Ethics Channel

To manage the complex legal landscape, Cosan S.A. maintains a robust Compliance Program. The program is structured around six core pillars, ensuring a comprehensive approach to integrity and risk management. This framework is essential for mitigating risks associated with the Brazilian Anti-Corruption Law and the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

The company's Code of Conduct, which sets the ethical principles for all stakeholders, was reviewed and approved by the Board of Directors on March 26, 2025. Also, the Risk Management Policy was updated and approved on May 23, 2025, demonstrating continuous attention to the control environment in the current fiscal year. The Compliance Committee, which reports to the Audit Committee, is responsible for consolidating the Anticorruption Program guidelines.

The six pillars of the Compliance Program are:

• Support from Top Management
• Code of Conduct and Policies
• Monitoring
• Due Diligence of Third Parties
• Training and Communication
• Ethics Channel (for anonymous or identified reporting)

The Ethics Channel is a critical legal tool, offering a way to identify illegal acts or behaviors that violate the Code of Conduct, with reports handled with full attention and transparency. Your next step should be to review Cosan's most recent Integrated Report to check the number of reports received and substantiated cases in the 2025 fiscal year. Finance: draft a legal risk matrix by end of month.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Drought and fires have negatively impacted sugarcane production volumes in 2025.

The core of Cosan S.A.'s business, through its subsidiary Raízen, faces acute near-term risks from climate volatility. You're seeing this play out in the 2025 fiscal year data, which reflects the severe dry climate and wildfires that hit the sugarcane fields. This isn't just a localized issue; it's a systemic risk to agricultural commodities in Brazil's Center-South region.

For the 2024/25 crop, Raízen estimated that fires affected approximately 1.8 million tons of its sugarcane, which is about 2% of its total crushing forecast. While the company prioritized crushing the burnt cane to mitigate immediate losses, the damage to young plants is expected to carry over, reducing the output for the subsequent cycle.

Here's the quick math on the expected near-term volume drop:

Metric	2024-25 Crop Estimate (tons)	2025-26 Crop Estimate (tons)	Projected Change
Center-South Sugarcane Crushing Volume	600 million	580 million	-3.3%
Sugarcane-based Ethanol Production	25.4 million m³ (estimated)	23.1 million m³	-9.1%

The reduced volume for the 2025-26 crop will defintely pressure margins, especially as the industry must invest in new fertilizer and replanting to recover the affected 414,000 hectares of sugarcane and regrowth areas.

Strong structural tailwinds from the global shift toward low-carbon energy and biofuels.

The long-term outlook for Cosan is strong, but it's not a straight line. The global push for decarbonization is a massive structural tailwind, positioning Raízen as a key player in the low-carbon liquid fuels market. Biofuels are expected to see their share in total liquid fuel demand rise to 6.4% by 2030.

This shift is driven by concrete regulatory action, such as the European Union's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, which mandates a minimum of 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending by 2025. Raízen is one of the few companies globally that can produce advanced biofuels at scale, which is why major oil companies are concentrating their investment in fuels like SAF and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO). This is a huge competitive advantage.

Still, you need to be a realist. The first-generation (crop-based) biofuels face increasing scrutiny from the scientific community, with some reports suggesting they are globally responsible for 16% more emissions than the fossil fuels they replace on average. This means the future value lies in second-generation (2G) ethanol and advanced biofuels, where Raízen is a leader.

Raízen's crushing pace is challenged by adverse weather but operational focus remains high.

While the overall environment was challenging, Raízen's operational strategy focused on mitigating the damage to maintain a high crushing pace. The company's goal was to process affected cane quickly, as quality drops sharply after a fire. This operational agility is crucial when dealing with extreme weather events.

The actual impact of the adverse conditions is visible in the company's environmental metrics for the 2024/25 crop year:

• Gross overall Scope 1 GHG emissions were 3,179,507 tCO2e.
• GHG emissions intensity rose to 0.046 tCO2e/metric ton of sugarcane, up from 0.034 in the previous year.
• Energy intensity ratio increased significantly to 4.16 GJ/T of crushed sugarcane from 2.55 in the prior period.

The increase in emissions intensity shows the operational cost of climate adversity-more energy is needed to process lower-quality or damaged cane, or to manage the fields under stress. This is the real-world cost of climate change on the balance sheet.

Focus on sustainable agriculture to mitigate climate change risks and ensure long-term yield stability.

To counter the long-term climate risks, Cosan S.A. is leaning into sustainable agriculture practices. This is a must-have, not a nice-to-have, for long-term yield stability. The industry is moving toward regenerative agriculture, which focuses on restoring soil health and improving water retention.

Raízen's specific efforts in this area are quantified by its commitment to third-party verification, which is what investors want to see:

• The percentage of agricultural raw materials certified to the Bonsucro standard (a global sustainability certification for sugarcane) reached 11% in the 2024/25 crop year.
• The focus is on precision agriculture technologies, like sensors and data analytics, to optimize resource use and reduce input wastage.

The immediate action for Cosan is to accelerate the adoption of these climate-smart techniques to ensure that future harvests are less susceptible to the drought and fire cycles that have plagued the 2025 period. Finance: track the capital expenditure allocated to regenerative agriculture R&D and implementation by the next quarter's earnings call.