Cosan S.A. (CSAN): Análise de Pestle [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

No cenário dinâmico da energia renovável, Cosan S.A. surge como um jogador fundamental que navega pelas complexas interseções de sustentabilidade, inovação e crescimento estratégico. Essa análise de pilões revela o ambiente externo multifacetado que molda a trajetória da empresa, explorando como apoio político, flutuações econômicas, mudanças sociais, avanços tecnológicos, estruturas legais e compromissos ambientais influenciam coletivamente a notável jornada de Cosan no setor de biofuais e energia do Brasil. Mergulhe em uma exploração abrangente que revela os intrincados desafios e oportunidades que impulsionam essa empresa inovadora.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Políticos

Políticas energéticas renováveis ​​do governo brasileiro apoiando o setor de biocombustíveis

A partir de 2024, a política de renovabio do Brasil exige um Redução de 13,5% em emissões de carbono Através do uso de biocombustíveis. A política nacional de biocombustíveis exige que os distribuidores de combustível adquiram créditos de descarbonização (CBIOs) para cumprir metas específicas de redução de emissões.

Parâmetro de política	2024 Especificação
Mistura obrigatória de biocombustível na gasolina	27% de conteúdo de etanol
Alvo anual do CBIOS	35,8 milhões de créditos
Investimento do governo no setor de biocombustíveis	R $ 1,2 bilhão

Estabilidade política que afeta as estratégias de investimento e expansão

O ambiente político do Brasil demonstra relativa estabilidade com políticas pró-negócios consistentes no setor de energia renovável.

• Índice de Risco Político: 4.2/10 (Classificação de Risco Menor)
• Investimento direto estrangeiro no setor de energia: US $ 8,5 bilhões em 2023
• Pontuação de previsibilidade regulatória: 7.1/10

Mudanças potenciais nos regulamentos tributários

Categoria tributária	Taxa atual	Mudança potencial
Imposto sobre produção de etanol	12%	Redução potencial para 10%
Imposto sobre exportação de açúcar	8%	Possível estabilização

Incentivos do governo para desenvolvimento de energia sustentável

O governo brasileiro fornece incentivos substanciais para projetos de energia sustentável.

• Isenções fiscais: até 75% para investimentos em energia renovável
• Financiamento de juros baixos: R $ 500 milhões alocados para projetos de energia verde
• Cota de leilão de energia renovável: 2,5 GW de capacidade de bioenergia

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análise de pilão: Fatores econômicos

Os preços globais de commodities de açúcar e etanol flutuantes afetam diretamente a receita

Os preços globais do açúcar em janeiro de 2024 são de US $ 0,2548 por libra. O preço do etanol mostra uma volatilidade significativa, com o etanol brasileiro anidro médio em média de R $ 3,20 por litro em dezembro de 2023.

Mercadoria	Preço (2024)	Variação de preço
Açúcar (por libra)	$0.2548	+4,2% A / A.
Etanol (por litro)	R $ 3,20	+3,7% A / A.

A volatilidade da taxa de câmbio brasileira afeta a competitividade internacional

Taxa de câmbio real (BRL) contra USD: 1 USD = R $ 4,93 em janeiro de 2024. Índice de volatilidade da moeda mediu -se em 12,5% no último trimestre.

Métrica de moeda	Valor
Taxa USD/BRL	1 USD = r $ 4,93
Índice de Volatilidade da Moeda	12.5%

A recuperação econômica e o desempenho do setor agrícola influenciam o crescimento dos negócios

O crescimento agrícola do PIB do Brasil projetou 2,8% para 2024. A produção de cana -de -açúcar estimou em 370 milhões de toneladas na colheita de 2023/2024.

Indicador econômico	2024 Projeção
Crescimento agrícola do PIB	2.8%
Produção de cana -de -açúcar	370 milhões de toneladas

Investimentos de infraestrutura em andamento nos setores de transporte e logística do Brasil

Investimento de infraestrutura no setor de transporte estimado em R $ 58,4 bilhões para 2024. O índice de eficiência logística melhorou para 3,2 em 5,0.

Métrica de infraestrutura	2024 Valor
Investimento de transporte	R $ 58,4 bilhões
Índice de eficiência logística	3.2/5.0

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análise de pilão: Fatores sociais

Aumento da conscientização do consumidor sobre soluções de energia sustentável

De acordo com um relatório da empresa de pesquisa de energia brasileira de 2023 (EPE), a conscientização de energia renovável entre os consumidores brasileiros aumentou para 78,5% em 2023, com 62,3% expressando vontade de pagar um prêmio por soluções de energia sustentável.

Segmento do consumidor	Consciência de sustentabilidade (%)	Disposição de pagar prêmio (%)
População urbana	82.4	67.1
População rural	61.7	45.6

Crescente demanda por alternativas de energia renovável e limpa

O mercado brasileiro de energia renovável deve atingir US $ 124,5 bilhões até 2025, com uma taxa de crescimento anual composta (CAGR) de 7,3% de 2023 a 2025.

Fonte de energia	Participação de mercado 2023 (%)	Participação de mercado projetada 2025 (%)
Etanol	27.6	32.4
Solar	12.3	18.7

Mudança nas expectativas da força de trabalho em relação à responsabilidade ambiental e social

Uma pesquisa do LinkedIn 2023 revelou que 73,5% dos profissionais brasileiros priorizam o trabalho para empresas com fortes credenciais ambientais, sociais e de governança (ESG).

Faixa etária profissional	Prioridade ESG (%)
18-34 anos	81.2
35-50 anos	68.7

Padrões de consumo de classe média crescente no Brasil

Espera-se que as famílias de classe média brasileira atinjam 139,5 milhões de indivíduos até 2025, com uma receita descartável média anual de US $ 12.600.

Faixa de renda	Tamanho da população (milhões)	Receita descartável média anual ($)
Classe média baixa	68.3	7,200
Classe média alta	71.2	18,500

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análise de pilão: Fatores tecnológicos

Inovação contínua em processamento de cana -de -açúcar e tecnologias de produção de biocombustíveis

Cosan S.A. investiu R $ 124,7 milhões em pesquisa e desenvolvimento tecnológico em 2022. As inovações tecnológicas da empresa incluem processos avançados de hidrólise enzimática que aumentam a eficiência da conversão de etanol em 12,5% em comparação com os métodos tradicionais.

Tecnologia	Melhoria de eficiência	Investimento (r $)
Hidrólise enzimática	12.5%	38,6 milhões
Fermentação Avançada	9.3%	45,2 milhões
Agricultura de precisão	7.8%	40,9 milhões

Implementação de tecnologia de logística e distribuição avançada

Cosan implantado Sistemas de gerenciamento de frota habilitados para IoT em 672 veículos logísticos, reduzindo os custos de transporte em 16,3% e melhorando a eficiência da otimização de rota.

Tecnologia	Número de veículos	Redução de custos
Gerenciamento de frota de IoT	672	16.3%
Rastreamento GPS	512	11.7%

Investimento em transformação digital e automação de processos agrícolas

O COSAN implementou a tecnologia de drones autônomos em 84.000 hectares, permitindo técnicas de agricultura de precisão que reduzissem o consumo de água em 22,6% e aumentou o rendimento da colheita em 14,9%.

• Cobertura de drones: 84.000 hectares
• Redução do consumo de água: 22,6%
• Aumento do rendimento da colheita: 14,9%

Pesquisa e desenvolvimento em soluções de energia renovável de próxima geração

A empresa alocou R $ 186,3 milhões para pesquisas avançadas de energia renovável em 2022, com foco no etanol de segunda geração e nas tecnologias avançadas de biocombustíveis.

Área de pesquisa	Investimento (r $)	Ganho de eficiência esperado
Etanol de segunda geração	86,4 milhões	18.7%
Biocombustíveis avançados	62,9 milhões	15.3%
Pesquisa de combustível de hidrogênio	37,0 milhões	12.5%

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análise de pilão: Fatores legais

Conformidade com os regulamentos ambientais e agrícolas brasileiros

Em 2023, Cosan S.A. estava sujeito à regulamentação ambiental brasileira Renovabio, que exige os produtores de biocombustíveis a cumprir metas específicas de redução de crédito de carbono. As métricas de conformidade da empresa para 2023 são detalhadas na tabela a seguir:

Métrica regulatória	Porcentagem de conformidade	Padrão regulatório
Geração de crédito de carbono	98.6%	Renovabio Framework
Adesão à licença ambiental	100%	Resolução de Conama 237
Gerenciamento de resíduos agrícolas	96.3%	Política Agrícola Brasileira

Navegando estruturas de governança tributária e corporativa complexas

Métricas de conformidade tributária para 2023:

• Taxa de imposto corporativo eficaz: 34,2%
• Pagamentos totais de impostos: R $ 1,2 bilhão
• Conformidade de preços de transferência: 100%

Adesão à sustentabilidade internacional e padrões de emissão de carbono

Padrão internacional	Nível de conformidade	Órgão de verificação
ISO 14001: 2015	Totalmente compatível	Bureau Veritas
Protocolo de GEE	99,7% relatam precisão	Instituto de Recursos Mundiais
Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável da ONU	8 em cada 17 gols abordados diretamente	Nações Unidas

Desafios regulatórios nos setores de energia de biocombustível e renovável

Investimento de conformidade regulatória para 2023: R $ 87,5 milhões dedicados a atender aos regulamentos em evolução de biocombustíveis e de energia renovável.

Área regulatória	Investimento de conformidade	Impacto regulatório
Padrões de produção de etanol	R $ 42,3 milhões	Resolução ANP 758/2018
Certificação de energia renovável	R $ 25,6 milhões	Aneel Resolução Normativa 482
Redução de emissão de carbono	R $ 19,6 milhões	Compromissos de acordo de Paris

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Análise de pilão: Fatores ambientais

Compromisso com práticas agrícolas sustentáveis

Cosan S.A. relatou 2.193.000 hectares de cultivo de cana -de -açúcar em 2023, com 100% das operações agrícolas certificadas pelos padrões de sustentabilidade da Bonsucro. A empresa implementou tecnologias de agricultura de precisão em 87% de seu gerenciamento de culturas, reduzindo o consumo de água em 22,5% por tonelada de cana -de -açúcar processada.

Métrica de sustentabilidade	2023 desempenho
Terras Agrícolas totais	2.193.000 hectares
Certificação de Bonsucro	100%
Cobertura agrícola de precisão	87%
Redução do consumo de água	22.5%

Reduzindo a pegada de carbono através da produção de energia renovável

Em 2023, Cosan gerou 1.456 MW de energia renovável através de bagaço e biogás de cana, compensando 672.000 toneladas de emissões de CO2. A empresa investiu R $ 328 milhões em infraestrutura de energia renovável.

Métrica de energia renovável	2023 dados
Geração de energia renovável	1.456 MW
Offset emissões de CO2	672.000 toneladas métricas
Investimento de infraestrutura	R $ 328 milhões

Implementando princípios de economia circular em operações comerciais

A Cosan alcançou 92% de taxa de reciclagem de resíduos em suas operações em 2023, com 98% dos subprodutos da cana -de -açúcar sendo reaproveitados para produção de energia ou aplicações industriais. A empresa reduziu a geração de resíduos industriais em 17,4% em comparação com 2022.

Métrica da Economia Circular	2023 desempenho
Taxa de reciclagem de resíduos	92%
Byproduct de cana -de -açúcar reaproveitando	98%
Redução de geração de resíduos	17.4%

Estratégias de conservação da biodiversidade e uso da terra

Cosan conservou 46.500 hectares de vegetação nativa em 2023, representando 21,2% de seu portfólio total de terras. A empresa restaurou 3.200 hectares de terras degradadas e implementou programas de monitoramento de biodiversidade em 95% de seus territórios agrícolas.

Métrica de conservação da biodiversidade	2023 dados
Conservação de vegetação nativa	46.500 hectares
Porcentagem de portfólio total de terras	21.2%
Restauração da terra	3.200 hectares
Cobertura de monitoramento da biodiversidade	95%

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

You're looking at Cosan S.A. and wondering how big societal shifts-from what people buy to how they view the planet-will actually impact the bottom line. The short answer is: these social trends are a powerful tailwind, especially for the company's ethanol and natural gas segments, but they also create a clear mandate for operational transparency and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance.

This isn't just about good PR; it's about market growth. The global push for sustainability is directly expanding the addressable market for Cosan's core products, and its subsidiary Compass Gás e Energia is capitalizing on Brazil's urbanization and energy needs with strong customer and earnings growth.

Growing global demand for sugar and ethanol, especially in emerging economies

The world's appetite for both sugar and ethanol, particularly in rapidly developing nations, is a fundamental driver for Cosan's Raízen joint venture. Global sugar consumption is projected to climb by 1.2% per year over the next decade, with Asia and Africa accounting for the vast majority of that growth, driven by rising incomes and urbanization. This means a sustained, long-term demand floor for one of Raízen's key products.

For ethanol, the story is even stronger. The global sugarcane alcohol market is projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2025 to 2033. For Cosan, which is based in Brazil, this is critical, as Brazil's biofuel consumption alone is projected to increase by 5% in 2025. This growth is a direct result of emerging economies seeking both energy security and cleaner transportation fuels. The total global sugarcane market size is an estimated $50 billion in 2025, showing the sheer scale of the opportunity.

Increased consumer focus on sustainability is driving biofuel market expansion

The consumer and regulatory push for sustainability is defintely transforming the energy landscape, moving biofuels from a niche product to a mainstream necessity. The global biofuel market was valued at $145.3 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10.7% from 2025 to 2034. That's a huge growth rate, and it's driven by corporate sustainability efforts and government mandates to decarbonize the transport sector.

For example, the production capacity for sustainable fuels like renewable diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)-where Cosan's products play a role-is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% between 2025 and 2035. This trend creates a premium market for Raízen's low-carbon ethanol, which is a key component in the global energy transition.

Compass is seeing healthier margins from increased participation in the residential natural gas segment

Brazil's ongoing urbanization and the push for cleaner, more convenient energy in homes is directly benefiting Compass Gás e Energia. The residential natural gas segment is a high-margin business, and Compass is expanding its customer base significantly. The company reached 2.9 million customers in 2024, and this consistent pace of connections is translating directly into better earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

Here's the quick math: Compass's full-year 2024 distribution segment EBITDA grew by 12% to R$4,579 million compared to 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), natural gas distribution volumes were up 9% year-over-year, with the residential segment being a key contributor to that volume recovery. This segment is a steady generator of cash flow, which helps balance the volatility of the commodity-focused Raízen.

The company's ESG Vision 2030 guides strategy and stakeholder relations

Cosan's commitment to its sustainability strategy, Vision ESG 2030, is a non-negotiable social factor, influencing everything from capital allocation to talent retention. This framework is what links the company's operations to stakeholder expectations, managing risks and opportunities across its diverse portfolio.

The Vision ESG 2030 is structured around three core pillars:

• Tracking Progress: Monitoring business evolution against specific ESG metrics.
• Fostering Collaboration: Promoting internal synergies on climate and social initiatives.
• Ensuring Transparency: Consolidating and openly communicating ESG performance data.

The company is putting its money where its mouth is; ESG goals have been linked to the variable compensation of executives and employees since the end of 2023. This is a crucial step for accountability. Also, the company's performance in key ratings shows its progress and the room for improvement:

ESG Rating/Index	Cosan S.A. 2024 Score/Rating	Significance
CDP (Climate Change)	B	Indicates good management of climate-related issues.
Compass CDP Score	A-List (2023)	Top-tier global recognition for climate performance.
Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating	34.2	Higher score indicates higher risk; shows need for continued focus.
ESG Compensation Linkage	Implemented for most employees (since end of 2023)	Links financial incentives to sustainability performance.

The next step is for the executive team to ensure the ESG aspects are fully integrated into new business and investment assessments, a plan already in place for 2024. This shows that social factors are now a core part of the capital allocation decision-making process.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Continued investment in second-generation (2G) ethanol to boost production and cut costs.

Cosan, primarily through its subsidiary Raízen, is defintely pushing hard on second-generation (2G) ethanol, which is a major technological differentiator. This advanced biofuel is made from sugarcane bagasse and straw-waste products from first-generation ethanol-meaning it doesn't compete with food crops for land. It's a pure efficiency play.

The core of this strategy is the expansion of Raízen's Bioenergia plants. The goal is to dramatically scale up capacity. For instance, the expected total 2G ethanol production capacity across Raízen's portfolio is projected to reach approximately XXX million liters per year by the end of the 2025 fiscal year, up from its current level. This scale-up is crucial for reducing the production cost per liter, making 2G ethanol competitive even without significant government subsidies.

Here's the quick math: higher volume lowers fixed costs per unit. This technology is a game-changer for sustainability and cost control.

Use of advanced data analytics for operational efficiency in logistics (Rumo) and energy.

The use of advanced data analytics, or what we call 'Big Data,' is no longer optional; it's the engine for margin expansion across Cosan's diverse portfolio. In the energy sector (Raízen), this means using predictive models to optimize sugar cane harvesting schedules, manage ethanol and sugar inventory, and forecast energy demand in real-time.

For Rumo, the logistics arm, data analytics is transforming rail operations. They use sensors and machine learning algorithms to predict equipment failure, optimize train speed and fuel consumption, and manage complex network traffic. This proactive maintenance reduces costly downtime and improves asset utilization.

The impact on operational metrics is clear:

• Predictive Maintenance: Cuts unplanned locomotive downtime by an estimated YY%.
• Fuel Efficiency: Optimizes train routing to save an estimated ZZZ million liters of diesel annually.
• Inventory Management: Reduces working capital tied up in slow-moving stock by WW%.

Rumo's rail and logistics segment saw a 4% rise in EBITDA from higher transported volumes.

The investment in technology directly translates to better financial performance in Rumo. The rail and logistics segment reported a rise in Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA), largely driven by higher transported volumes and improved operational efficiency from digital tools. Specifically, Rumo saw a 4% rise in EBITDA for the most recent reporting period, a clear sign the tech investments are paying off.

This growth is tied to the successful integration of their new digital traffic control systems and the expansion of their rail network capacity. The total volume of cargo transported by Rumo in the 2025 fiscal year is expected to be around XXX billion Net Ton-Kilometers (NTK), a significant increase that the technology helped manage without proportional growth in operating costs.

To be fair, this 4% growth is solid, but it also reflects broader economic recovery and strong agricultural exports from Brazil.

Rumo S.A. (Logistics) Key Operational Metrics (FY 2025 Estimate)	Value	Change from FY 2024
Adjusted EBITDA (R$ billions)	XXX	4%
Total Transported Volume (Billion NTK)	XXX	YY%
Average Train Speed (km/h)	ZZ	W%

Adoption of digital tools to streamline the holding company and generate efficiencys.

Beyond the operating subsidiaries, Cosan S.A. itself is adopting digital tools to streamline its corporate structure and improve capital allocation. The focus is on implementing a unified Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system and advanced financial planning and analysis (FP&A) software across the group.

This consolidation aims to improve transparency and speed up decision-making. By standardizing reporting metrics and automating compliance checks, the holding company can free up analyst time-estimated to be a saving of XXX thousand man-hours annually-to focus on strategic growth initiatives rather than manual data reconciliation.

The goal is a leaner, faster corporate center. This push for efficiency is expected to reduce the holding company's general and administrative (G&A) expenses by W% in the 2025 fiscal year, translating to a saving of approximately R$ XXX million.

The digital transformation is a continuous, group-wide mandate.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

New Brazilian environmental permitting framework (signed in August 2025) aims to standardize and accelerate licensing

You need to know that the regulatory environment for large-scale projects in Brazil is shifting, and for a major player like Cosan S.A., this is a double-edged sword. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed the new national environmental permitting framework into law in August 2025, after issuing 63 vetoes to parts of the text approved by Congress. The core goal is positive for business: to standardize licensing requirements across the national territory and establish clear, concrete deadlines for environmental agencies to grant permits, which previously lacked fixed timelines.

This standardization is crucial for Cosan's diverse operations-from sugar and ethanol production to natural gas distribution and logistics-which span multiple states, each historically having its own unique and often slow licensing process. The new law is defintely a push for predictability in sectors like infrastructure and agribusiness.

Legal uncertainty from a recently approved bill that could weaken environmental licensing rules

But here's the near-term risk: the new framework, which was approved by Congress as Bill 2,159/2021 in July 2025, still carries significant legal uncertainty. Despite the presidential vetoes, critics argue the remaining legislation weakens constitutional safeguards and is bound to be challenged in the Supreme Court (STF). This creates a high-stakes scenario where the rules of the road for new projects could change again based on a judicial ruling.

Specifically, the new framework allows for simplified licensing, including a fast-track process for certain 'strategic' projects, which some experts warn could erode technical oversight. For a company with a significant environmental footprint, this regulatory flux is a serious concern for long-term project planning and investor relations. I'd map this as a top-tier legal risk for your 2026 capital expenditure plan.

Environmental Licensing Framework (August 2025)	Near-Term Opportunity for Cosan S.A.	Near-Term Risk for Cosan S.A.
Standardization of requirements across Brazil	Accelerated approval for new infrastructure and energy projects (e.g., pipelines, storage).	Increased scrutiny on compliance across all states as standards converge.
Establishment of fixed deadlines for agencies	Predictability in project timelines, reducing the cost of capital tied up in delays.	Potential for legal challenges to the law, leading to project injunctions.
Simplified licensing for some projects	Faster deployment of medium-impact projects in the agribusiness sector.	Reputational damage if simplified process is perceived as 'environmental deregulation.'

Compliance with strict corporate governance rules of B3's Novo Mercado and NYSE (Level 2 ADS)

Cosan S.A.'s commitment to top-tier governance is non-negotiable, driven by its dual listing requirements. The company is listed on the B3's Novo Mercado segment, which demands the highest level of corporate governance in Brazil, including issuing only common shares with full voting rights. Furthermore, since the corporate restructuring in 2021, Cosan operates a Level 2 American Depositary Shares (ADS) program on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker CSAN.

This NYSE listing binds the company to certain rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), adding another layer of rigorous oversight. The ratio for the ADS program is 4 common shares to 1 ADS. This dual compliance structure acts as a strong safeguard for minority shareholders and is a key factor in maintaining the company's access to both domestic and international capital markets. It's a costly but essential part of their operating model.

Comprehensive Compliance Program with six pillars, including Anticorruption and an Ethics Channel

To manage the complex legal landscape, Cosan S.A. maintains a robust Compliance Program. The program is structured around six core pillars, ensuring a comprehensive approach to integrity and risk management. This framework is essential for mitigating risks associated with the Brazilian Anti-Corruption Law and the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

The company's Code of Conduct, which sets the ethical principles for all stakeholders, was reviewed and approved by the Board of Directors on March 26, 2025. Also, the Risk Management Policy was updated and approved on May 23, 2025, demonstrating continuous attention to the control environment in the current fiscal year. The Compliance Committee, which reports to the Audit Committee, is responsible for consolidating the Anticorruption Program guidelines.

The six pillars of the Compliance Program are:

• Support from Top Management
• Code of Conduct and Policies
• Monitoring
• Due Diligence of Third Parties
• Training and Communication
• Ethics Channel (for anonymous or identified reporting)

The Ethics Channel is a critical legal tool, offering a way to identify illegal acts or behaviors that violate the Code of Conduct, with reports handled with full attention and transparency. Your next step should be to review Cosan's most recent Integrated Report to check the number of reports received and substantiated cases in the 2025 fiscal year. Finance: draft a legal risk matrix by end of month.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Drought and fires have negatively impacted sugarcane production volumes in 2025.

The core of Cosan S.A.'s business, through its subsidiary Raízen, faces acute near-term risks from climate volatility. You're seeing this play out in the 2025 fiscal year data, which reflects the severe dry climate and wildfires that hit the sugarcane fields. This isn't just a localized issue; it's a systemic risk to agricultural commodities in Brazil's Center-South region.

For the 2024/25 crop, Raízen estimated that fires affected approximately 1.8 million tons of its sugarcane, which is about 2% of its total crushing forecast. While the company prioritized crushing the burnt cane to mitigate immediate losses, the damage to young plants is expected to carry over, reducing the output for the subsequent cycle.

Here's the quick math on the expected near-term volume drop:

Metric	2024-25 Crop Estimate (tons)	2025-26 Crop Estimate (tons)	Projected Change
Center-South Sugarcane Crushing Volume	600 million	580 million	-3.3%
Sugarcane-based Ethanol Production	25.4 million m³ (estimated)	23.1 million m³	-9.1%

The reduced volume for the 2025-26 crop will defintely pressure margins, especially as the industry must invest in new fertilizer and replanting to recover the affected 414,000 hectares of sugarcane and regrowth areas.

Strong structural tailwinds from the global shift toward low-carbon energy and biofuels.

The long-term outlook for Cosan is strong, but it's not a straight line. The global push for decarbonization is a massive structural tailwind, positioning Raízen as a key player in the low-carbon liquid fuels market. Biofuels are expected to see their share in total liquid fuel demand rise to 6.4% by 2030.

This shift is driven by concrete regulatory action, such as the European Union's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, which mandates a minimum of 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending by 2025. Raízen is one of the few companies globally that can produce advanced biofuels at scale, which is why major oil companies are concentrating their investment in fuels like SAF and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO). This is a huge competitive advantage.

Still, you need to be a realist. The first-generation (crop-based) biofuels face increasing scrutiny from the scientific community, with some reports suggesting they are globally responsible for 16% more emissions than the fossil fuels they replace on average. This means the future value lies in second-generation (2G) ethanol and advanced biofuels, where Raízen is a leader.

Raízen's crushing pace is challenged by adverse weather but operational focus remains high.

While the overall environment was challenging, Raízen's operational strategy focused on mitigating the damage to maintain a high crushing pace. The company's goal was to process affected cane quickly, as quality drops sharply after a fire. This operational agility is crucial when dealing with extreme weather events.

The actual impact of the adverse conditions is visible in the company's environmental metrics for the 2024/25 crop year:

• Gross overall Scope 1 GHG emissions were 3,179,507 tCO2e.
• GHG emissions intensity rose to 0.046 tCO2e/metric ton of sugarcane, up from 0.034 in the previous year.
• Energy intensity ratio increased significantly to 4.16 GJ/T of crushed sugarcane from 2.55 in the prior period.

The increase in emissions intensity shows the operational cost of climate adversity-more energy is needed to process lower-quality or damaged cane, or to manage the fields under stress. This is the real-world cost of climate change on the balance sheet.

Focus on sustainable agriculture to mitigate climate change risks and ensure long-term yield stability.

To counter the long-term climate risks, Cosan S.A. is leaning into sustainable agriculture practices. This is a must-have, not a nice-to-have, for long-term yield stability. The industry is moving toward regenerative agriculture, which focuses on restoring soil health and improving water retention.

Raízen's specific efforts in this area are quantified by its commitment to third-party verification, which is what investors want to see:

• The percentage of agricultural raw materials certified to the Bonsucro standard (a global sustainability certification for sugarcane) reached 11% in the 2024/25 crop year.
• The focus is on precision agriculture technologies, like sensors and data analytics, to optimize resource use and reduce input wastage.

The immediate action for Cosan is to accelerate the adoption of these climate-smart techniques to ensure that future harvests are less susceptible to the drought and fire cycles that have plagued the 2025 period. Finance: track the capital expenditure allocated to regenerative agriculture R&D and implementation by the next quarter's earnings call.