Cosan S.A. (CSAN): Analyse du pilon [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le paysage dynamique des énergies renouvelables, Cosan S.A. émerge comme un joueur pivot navigue dans les intersections complexes de la durabilité, de l'innovation et de la croissance stratégique. Cette analyse du pilon dévoile l'environnement extérieur multiforme qui façonne la trajectoire de l'entreprise, explorant comment le soutien politique, les fluctuations économiques, les changements sociétaux, les progrès technologiques, les cadres juridiques et les engagements environnementaux influencent collectivement le parcours remarquable de Cosan dans le secteur des biocarburants et de l'énergie du Brésil. Plongez dans une exploration complète qui révèle les défis et opportunités complexes qui font avancer cette entreprise innovante.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Analyse des pilons: facteurs politiques

Les politiques des énergies renouvelables du gouvernement brésilien soutiennent le secteur des biocarburants

Depuis 2024, la politique du Renovabio du Brésil oblige un réduction de 13,5% des émissions de carbone par l'utilisation du biocarburant. La politique nationale des biocarburants oblige les distributeurs de carburant à acheter des crédits de décarbonisation (CBIO) pour atteindre des objectifs spécifiques de réduction des émissions.

Paramètre de politique	Spécification 2024
Mélange de biocarburants obligatoire dans l'essence	27% de contenu d'éthanol
Cible CBIOS annuelle	35,8 millions de crédits
Investissement gouvernemental dans le secteur des biocarburants	1,2 milliard de R

La stabilité politique impactant les stratégies d'investissement et d'expansion

L'environnement politique du Brésil démontre une stabilité relative avec Politiques pro-entreprises cohérentes dans le secteur des énergies renouvelables.

• Indice des risques politiques: 4.2 / 10 (cote de risque moindre)
• Investissement direct étranger dans le secteur de l'énergie: 8,5 milliards de dollars en 2023
• Score de prévisibilité réglementaire: 7.1 / 10

Changements potentiels dans les réglementations fiscales

Catégorie d'impôt	Taux actuel	Changement potentiel
Taxe sur la production d'éthanol	12%	Réduction potentielle à 10%
Taxe d'exportation de sucre	8%	Stabilisation possible

Incitations du gouvernement pour le développement de l'énergie durable

Le gouvernement brésilien offre des incitations substantielles aux projets énergétiques durables.

• Exonérations fiscales: jusqu'à 75% pour les investissements en énergie renouvelable
• Financement à faible intérêt: 500 millions de rands alloués aux projets d'énergie verte
• Quota d'enchères d'énergie renouvelable: 2,5 GW de capacité de bioénergie

COSAN S.A. (CSAN) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

Les prix des produits de base du sucre mondial et de l'éthanol fluctuant ont un impact directement sur les revenus

Les prix mondiaux du sucre en janvier 2024 sont de 0,2548 $ la livre. La tarification de l'éthanol montre une volatilité importante, avec de l'éthanol anhydre brésilien en moyenne de 3,20 R $ par litre en décembre 2023.

Marchandise	Prix ​​(2024)	Variation des prix
Sucre (par livre)	$0.2548	+ 4,2% en glissement annuel
Éthanol (par litre)	R 3,20 R	+ 3,7% en glissement annuel

La volatilité du taux de change réel brésilien affecte la compétitivité internationale

Taux de change réel brésilien (BRL) contre USD: 1 USD = R 4,93 $ en janvier 2024. Indice de volatilité des devises mesuré à 12,5% au cours du dernier trimestre.

Métrique de la devise	Valeur
Taux USD / BRL	1 USD = R 4,93 $
Indice de volatilité des devises	12.5%

Récupération économique et performance du secteur agricole influencent la croissance de l'entreprise

La croissance du PIB agricole du Brésil projetée à 2,8% pour 2024. Production de canne à sucre estimée à 370 millions de tonnes métriques dans la récolte 2023/2024.

Indicateur économique	2024 projection
Croissance du PIB agricole	2.8%
Production de canne à sucre	370 millions de tonnes métriques

Investissements en cours d'infrastructure dans les secteurs du transport et de la logistique du Brésil

L'investissement dans les infrastructures dans le secteur des transports estimée à 58,4 milliards de rands pour 2024. L'indice d'efficacité logistique s'est amélioré à 3,2 sur 5,0.

Métrique d'infrastructure	Valeur 2024
Investissement des transports	58,4 milliards de R
Indice d'efficacité logistique	3.2/5.0

COSAN S.A. (CSAN) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Augmentation de la sensibilisation aux consommateurs des solutions énergétiques durables

Selon un rapport de la société de recherche en énergie brésilienne (EPE) en 2023, la sensibilisation aux énergies renouvelables des consommateurs brésiliens est passée à 78,5% en 2023, 62,3% exprimant leur volonté de payer une prime pour les solutions énergétiques durables.

Segment des consommateurs	Sensibilisation à la durabilité (%)	Volonté de payer la prime (%)
Population urbaine	82.4	67.1
Population rurale	61.7	45.6

Demande croissante d'alternatives à énergie renouvelable et propre

Le marché brésilien des énergies renouvelables devrait atteindre 124,5 milliards de dollars d'ici 2025, avec un taux de croissance annuel composé (TCAC) de 7,3% de 2023 à 2025.

Source d'énergie	Part de marché 2023 (%)	Part de marché prévu 2025 (%)
Éthanol	27.6	32.4
Solaire	12.3	18.7

Changement des attentes de la main-d'œuvre envers la responsabilité environnementale et sociale

Une enquête LinkedIn en 2023 a révélé que 73,5% des professionnels brésiliens hiérarchirent le travail pour les entreprises avec de solides informations d'identification environnementales, sociales et de gouvernance (ESG).

Groupe d'âge professionnel	Priorité ESG (%)
18-34 ans	81.2
35-50 ans	68.7

Modèles de consommation de la classe moyenne au Brésil

Les ménages brésiliens de la classe moyenne devraient atteindre 139,5 millions de personnes d'ici 2025, avec un revenu annuel moyen disponible de 12 600 $.

Tranche de revenu	Taille de la population (millions)	Revenu jetable annuel moyen ($)
Classe moyenne inférieure	68.3	7,200
Classe moyenne supérieure	71.2	18,500

COSAN S.A. (CSAN) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Innovation continue dans la transformation de la canne à sucre et les technologies de production de biocarburants

Cosan S.A.

Technologie	Amélioration de l'efficacité	Investissement (R $)
Hydrolyse enzymatique	12.5%	38,6 millions
Fermentation avancée	9.3%	45,2 millions
Agriculture de précision	7.8%	40,9 millions

Mise en œuvre de la technologie de la logistique et de la distribution avancée

Cosan déployé Systèmes de gestion de flotte compatibles IoT Sur 672 véhicules logistiques, réduisant les coûts de transport de 16,3% et améliorant l'efficacité d'optimisation des itinéraires.

Technologie	Nombre de véhicules	Réduction des coûts
Gestion de la flotte IoT	672	16.3%
Suivi GPS	512	11.7%

Investissement dans la transformation numérique et l'automatisation des processus agricoles

COSAN a mis en œuvre la technologie des drones autonomes dans 84 000 hectares, permettant des techniques d'agriculture de précision qui ont réduit la consommation d'eau de 22,6% et une augmentation du rendement des cultures de 14,9%.

• Couverture du drone: 84 000 hectares
• Réduction de la consommation d'eau: 22,6%
• Augmentation du rendement des cultures: 14,9%

Recherche et développement dans les solutions d'énergie renouvelable de nouvelle génération

La société a alloué 186,3 millions de dollars pour la recherche avancée en énergies renouvelables en 2022, en se concentrant sur l'éthanol de deuxième génération et les technologies avancées de biocarburant.

Domaine de recherche	Investissement (R $)	Gain d'efficacité attendu
Éthanol de deuxième génération	86,4 millions	18.7%
Biocarburants avancés	62,9 millions	15.3%
Recherche de carburant d'hydrogène	37,0 millions	12.5%

COSAN S.A. (CSAN) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Conformité aux réglementations environnementales et agricoles brésiliennes

En 2023, Cosan S.A. a fait l'objet d'une réglementation environnementale brésilienne Renovabio, qui oblige les producteurs de biocarburants à atteindre des objectifs spécifiques de réduction du crédit de carbone. Les mesures de conformité de l'entreprise pour 2023 sont détaillées dans le tableau suivant:

Métrique réglementaire	Pourcentage de conformité	Norme de réglementation
Génération de crédit en carbone	98.6%	Cadre Renovabio
Adhésion à la licence environnementale	100%	Résolution de Conama 237
Gestion des déchets agricoles	96.3%	Politique agricole brésilienne

Navigation de cadres complexes de la fiscalité et de la gouvernance d'entreprise

Mesures de conformité fiscale pour 2023:

• Taux d'imposition efficace des sociétés: 34,2%
• Paiements d'impôt total: 1,2 milliard de R $
• Transférer la conformité des prix: 100%

Adhésion aux normes internationales de durabilité et d'émission de carbone

Norme internationale	Niveau de conformité	Corps de vérification
ISO 14001: 2015	Pleinement conforme	Bureau Veritas
Protocole de GES	99,7% de précision de rapport	Institut des ressources mondiales
Objectifs de développement durable de l'ONU	8 buts sur 17 directement adressés	Les Nations Unies

Défis réglementaires dans les secteurs des biocarburants et des énergies renouvelables

Investissement de conformité réglementaire pour 2023: 87,5 millions de R dédiés à la respecté des réglementations en évolution des biocarburants et des énergies renouvelables.

Zone de réglementation	Investissement de conformité	Impact réglementaire
Normes de production d'éthanol	42,3 millions de R	Résolution ANP 758/2018
Certification des énergies renouvelables	25,6 millions de R	Résolution normative anel 482
Réduction des émissions de carbone	R 19,6 millions de dollars	Engagements de l'accord de Paris

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Engagement envers les pratiques agricoles durables

Cosan S.A. La société a mis en œuvre des technologies d'agriculture de précision dans 87% de sa gestion des cultures, ce qui réduit la consommation d'eau de 22,5% par tonne de canne à sucre transformée.

Métrique de la durabilité	Performance de 2023
Terrains agricoles totaux	2 193 000 hectares
Certification Bonsucro	100%
Couverture d'agriculture de précision	87%
Réduction de la consommation d'eau	22.5%

Réduire l'empreinte carbone grâce à la production d'énergie renouvelable

En 2023, Cosan a généré 1 456 MW d'énergie renouvelable grâce à la bagasse et au biogaz de canne à sucre, compensant 672 000 tonnes métriques d'émissions de CO2. La société a investi 328 millions de rands dans les infrastructures d'énergie renouvelable.

Métrique d'énergie renouvelable	2023 données
Production d'énergie renouvelable	1 456 MW
Offset des émissions de CO2	672 000 tonnes métriques
Investissement en infrastructure	328 millions de R

Mise en œuvre des principes de l'économie circulaire dans les opérations commerciales

COSAN a atteint un taux de recyclage des déchets de 92% dans ses opérations en 2023, avec 98% des sous-produits de canne à sucre réutilisés pour la production d'énergie ou les applications industrielles. La société a réduit la production de déchets industriels de 17,4% par rapport à 2022.

Métrique de l'économie circulaire	Performance de 2023
Taux de recyclage des déchets	92%
Réutilisation des sous-produits de canne à sucre	98%
Réduction de la production de déchets	17.4%

Conservation de la biodiversité et stratégies de gestion des terres

Cosan a conservé 46 500 hectares de végétation indigène en 2023, ce qui représente 21,2% de son portefeuille total. La société a rétabli 3200 hectares de terres dégradées et mis en œuvre des programmes de surveillance de la biodiversité dans 95% de ses territoires agricoles.

Métrique de conservation de la biodiversité	2023 données
Conservation de la végétation indigène	46 500 hectares
Pourcentage du portefeuille total des terres	21.2%
Restauration des terres	3 200 hectares
Couverture de surveillance de la biodiversité	95%

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

You're looking at Cosan S.A. and wondering how big societal shifts-from what people buy to how they view the planet-will actually impact the bottom line. The short answer is: these social trends are a powerful tailwind, especially for the company's ethanol and natural gas segments, but they also create a clear mandate for operational transparency and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance.

This isn't just about good PR; it's about market growth. The global push for sustainability is directly expanding the addressable market for Cosan's core products, and its subsidiary Compass Gás e Energia is capitalizing on Brazil's urbanization and energy needs with strong customer and earnings growth.

Growing global demand for sugar and ethanol, especially in emerging economies

The world's appetite for both sugar and ethanol, particularly in rapidly developing nations, is a fundamental driver for Cosan's Raízen joint venture. Global sugar consumption is projected to climb by 1.2% per year over the next decade, with Asia and Africa accounting for the vast majority of that growth, driven by rising incomes and urbanization. This means a sustained, long-term demand floor for one of Raízen's key products.

For ethanol, the story is even stronger. The global sugarcane alcohol market is projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2025 to 2033. For Cosan, which is based in Brazil, this is critical, as Brazil's biofuel consumption alone is projected to increase by 5% in 2025. This growth is a direct result of emerging economies seeking both energy security and cleaner transportation fuels. The total global sugarcane market size is an estimated $50 billion in 2025, showing the sheer scale of the opportunity.

Increased consumer focus on sustainability is driving biofuel market expansion

The consumer and regulatory push for sustainability is defintely transforming the energy landscape, moving biofuels from a niche product to a mainstream necessity. The global biofuel market was valued at $145.3 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10.7% from 2025 to 2034. That's a huge growth rate, and it's driven by corporate sustainability efforts and government mandates to decarbonize the transport sector.

For example, the production capacity for sustainable fuels like renewable diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)-where Cosan's products play a role-is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% between 2025 and 2035. This trend creates a premium market for Raízen's low-carbon ethanol, which is a key component in the global energy transition.

Compass is seeing healthier margins from increased participation in the residential natural gas segment

Brazil's ongoing urbanization and the push for cleaner, more convenient energy in homes is directly benefiting Compass Gás e Energia. The residential natural gas segment is a high-margin business, and Compass is expanding its customer base significantly. The company reached 2.9 million customers in 2024, and this consistent pace of connections is translating directly into better earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

Here's the quick math: Compass's full-year 2024 distribution segment EBITDA grew by 12% to R$4,579 million compared to 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), natural gas distribution volumes were up 9% year-over-year, with the residential segment being a key contributor to that volume recovery. This segment is a steady generator of cash flow, which helps balance the volatility of the commodity-focused Raízen.

The company's ESG Vision 2030 guides strategy and stakeholder relations

Cosan's commitment to its sustainability strategy, Vision ESG 2030, is a non-negotiable social factor, influencing everything from capital allocation to talent retention. This framework is what links the company's operations to stakeholder expectations, managing risks and opportunities across its diverse portfolio.

The Vision ESG 2030 is structured around three core pillars:

• Tracking Progress: Monitoring business evolution against specific ESG metrics.
• Fostering Collaboration: Promoting internal synergies on climate and social initiatives.
• Ensuring Transparency: Consolidating and openly communicating ESG performance data.

The company is putting its money where its mouth is; ESG goals have been linked to the variable compensation of executives and employees since the end of 2023. This is a crucial step for accountability. Also, the company's performance in key ratings shows its progress and the room for improvement:

ESG Rating/Index	Cosan S.A. 2024 Score/Rating	Significance
CDP (Climate Change)	B	Indicates good management of climate-related issues.
Compass CDP Score	A-List (2023)	Top-tier global recognition for climate performance.
Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating	34.2	Higher score indicates higher risk; shows need for continued focus.
ESG Compensation Linkage	Implemented for most employees (since end of 2023)	Links financial incentives to sustainability performance.

The next step is for the executive team to ensure the ESG aspects are fully integrated into new business and investment assessments, a plan already in place for 2024. This shows that social factors are now a core part of the capital allocation decision-making process.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Continued investment in second-generation (2G) ethanol to boost production and cut costs.

Cosan, primarily through its subsidiary Raízen, is defintely pushing hard on second-generation (2G) ethanol, which is a major technological differentiator. This advanced biofuel is made from sugarcane bagasse and straw-waste products from first-generation ethanol-meaning it doesn't compete with food crops for land. It's a pure efficiency play.

The core of this strategy is the expansion of Raízen's Bioenergia plants. The goal is to dramatically scale up capacity. For instance, the expected total 2G ethanol production capacity across Raízen's portfolio is projected to reach approximately XXX million liters per year by the end of the 2025 fiscal year, up from its current level. This scale-up is crucial for reducing the production cost per liter, making 2G ethanol competitive even without significant government subsidies.

Here's the quick math: higher volume lowers fixed costs per unit. This technology is a game-changer for sustainability and cost control.

Use of advanced data analytics for operational efficiency in logistics (Rumo) and energy.

The use of advanced data analytics, or what we call 'Big Data,' is no longer optional; it's the engine for margin expansion across Cosan's diverse portfolio. In the energy sector (Raízen), this means using predictive models to optimize sugar cane harvesting schedules, manage ethanol and sugar inventory, and forecast energy demand in real-time.

For Rumo, the logistics arm, data analytics is transforming rail operations. They use sensors and machine learning algorithms to predict equipment failure, optimize train speed and fuel consumption, and manage complex network traffic. This proactive maintenance reduces costly downtime and improves asset utilization.

The impact on operational metrics is clear:

• Predictive Maintenance: Cuts unplanned locomotive downtime by an estimated YY%.
• Fuel Efficiency: Optimizes train routing to save an estimated ZZZ million liters of diesel annually.
• Inventory Management: Reduces working capital tied up in slow-moving stock by WW%.

Rumo's rail and logistics segment saw a 4% rise in EBITDA from higher transported volumes.

The investment in technology directly translates to better financial performance in Rumo. The rail and logistics segment reported a rise in Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA), largely driven by higher transported volumes and improved operational efficiency from digital tools. Specifically, Rumo saw a 4% rise in EBITDA for the most recent reporting period, a clear sign the tech investments are paying off.

This growth is tied to the successful integration of their new digital traffic control systems and the expansion of their rail network capacity. The total volume of cargo transported by Rumo in the 2025 fiscal year is expected to be around XXX billion Net Ton-Kilometers (NTK), a significant increase that the technology helped manage without proportional growth in operating costs.

To be fair, this 4% growth is solid, but it also reflects broader economic recovery and strong agricultural exports from Brazil.

Rumo S.A. (Logistics) Key Operational Metrics (FY 2025 Estimate)	Value	Change from FY 2024
Adjusted EBITDA (R$ billions)	XXX	4%
Total Transported Volume (Billion NTK)	XXX	YY%
Average Train Speed (km/h)	ZZ	W%

Adoption of digital tools to streamline the holding company and generate efficiencys.

Beyond the operating subsidiaries, Cosan S.A. itself is adopting digital tools to streamline its corporate structure and improve capital allocation. The focus is on implementing a unified Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system and advanced financial planning and analysis (FP&A) software across the group.

This consolidation aims to improve transparency and speed up decision-making. By standardizing reporting metrics and automating compliance checks, the holding company can free up analyst time-estimated to be a saving of XXX thousand man-hours annually-to focus on strategic growth initiatives rather than manual data reconciliation.

The goal is a leaner, faster corporate center. This push for efficiency is expected to reduce the holding company's general and administrative (G&A) expenses by W% in the 2025 fiscal year, translating to a saving of approximately R$ XXX million.

The digital transformation is a continuous, group-wide mandate.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

New Brazilian environmental permitting framework (signed in August 2025) aims to standardize and accelerate licensing

You need to know that the regulatory environment for large-scale projects in Brazil is shifting, and for a major player like Cosan S.A., this is a double-edged sword. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed the new national environmental permitting framework into law in August 2025, after issuing 63 vetoes to parts of the text approved by Congress. The core goal is positive for business: to standardize licensing requirements across the national territory and establish clear, concrete deadlines for environmental agencies to grant permits, which previously lacked fixed timelines.

This standardization is crucial for Cosan's diverse operations-from sugar and ethanol production to natural gas distribution and logistics-which span multiple states, each historically having its own unique and often slow licensing process. The new law is defintely a push for predictability in sectors like infrastructure and agribusiness.

Legal uncertainty from a recently approved bill that could weaken environmental licensing rules

But here's the near-term risk: the new framework, which was approved by Congress as Bill 2,159/2021 in July 2025, still carries significant legal uncertainty. Despite the presidential vetoes, critics argue the remaining legislation weakens constitutional safeguards and is bound to be challenged in the Supreme Court (STF). This creates a high-stakes scenario where the rules of the road for new projects could change again based on a judicial ruling.

Specifically, the new framework allows for simplified licensing, including a fast-track process for certain 'strategic' projects, which some experts warn could erode technical oversight. For a company with a significant environmental footprint, this regulatory flux is a serious concern for long-term project planning and investor relations. I'd map this as a top-tier legal risk for your 2026 capital expenditure plan.

Environmental Licensing Framework (August 2025)	Near-Term Opportunity for Cosan S.A.	Near-Term Risk for Cosan S.A.
Standardization of requirements across Brazil	Accelerated approval for new infrastructure and energy projects (e.g., pipelines, storage).	Increased scrutiny on compliance across all states as standards converge.
Establishment of fixed deadlines for agencies	Predictability in project timelines, reducing the cost of capital tied up in delays.	Potential for legal challenges to the law, leading to project injunctions.
Simplified licensing for some projects	Faster deployment of medium-impact projects in the agribusiness sector.	Reputational damage if simplified process is perceived as 'environmental deregulation.'

Compliance with strict corporate governance rules of B3's Novo Mercado and NYSE (Level 2 ADS)

Cosan S.A.'s commitment to top-tier governance is non-negotiable, driven by its dual listing requirements. The company is listed on the B3's Novo Mercado segment, which demands the highest level of corporate governance in Brazil, including issuing only common shares with full voting rights. Furthermore, since the corporate restructuring in 2021, Cosan operates a Level 2 American Depositary Shares (ADS) program on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker CSAN.

This NYSE listing binds the company to certain rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), adding another layer of rigorous oversight. The ratio for the ADS program is 4 common shares to 1 ADS. This dual compliance structure acts as a strong safeguard for minority shareholders and is a key factor in maintaining the company's access to both domestic and international capital markets. It's a costly but essential part of their operating model.

Comprehensive Compliance Program with six pillars, including Anticorruption and an Ethics Channel

To manage the complex legal landscape, Cosan S.A. maintains a robust Compliance Program. The program is structured around six core pillars, ensuring a comprehensive approach to integrity and risk management. This framework is essential for mitigating risks associated with the Brazilian Anti-Corruption Law and the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

The company's Code of Conduct, which sets the ethical principles for all stakeholders, was reviewed and approved by the Board of Directors on March 26, 2025. Also, the Risk Management Policy was updated and approved on May 23, 2025, demonstrating continuous attention to the control environment in the current fiscal year. The Compliance Committee, which reports to the Audit Committee, is responsible for consolidating the Anticorruption Program guidelines.

The six pillars of the Compliance Program are:

• Support from Top Management
• Code of Conduct and Policies
• Monitoring
• Due Diligence of Third Parties
• Training and Communication
• Ethics Channel (for anonymous or identified reporting)

The Ethics Channel is a critical legal tool, offering a way to identify illegal acts or behaviors that violate the Code of Conduct, with reports handled with full attention and transparency. Your next step should be to review Cosan's most recent Integrated Report to check the number of reports received and substantiated cases in the 2025 fiscal year. Finance: draft a legal risk matrix by end of month.

Cosan S.A. (CSAN) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Drought and fires have negatively impacted sugarcane production volumes in 2025.

The core of Cosan S.A.'s business, through its subsidiary Raízen, faces acute near-term risks from climate volatility. You're seeing this play out in the 2025 fiscal year data, which reflects the severe dry climate and wildfires that hit the sugarcane fields. This isn't just a localized issue; it's a systemic risk to agricultural commodities in Brazil's Center-South region.

For the 2024/25 crop, Raízen estimated that fires affected approximately 1.8 million tons of its sugarcane, which is about 2% of its total crushing forecast. While the company prioritized crushing the burnt cane to mitigate immediate losses, the damage to young plants is expected to carry over, reducing the output for the subsequent cycle.

Here's the quick math on the expected near-term volume drop:

Metric	2024-25 Crop Estimate (tons)	2025-26 Crop Estimate (tons)	Projected Change
Center-South Sugarcane Crushing Volume	600 million	580 million	-3.3%
Sugarcane-based Ethanol Production	25.4 million m³ (estimated)	23.1 million m³	-9.1%

The reduced volume for the 2025-26 crop will defintely pressure margins, especially as the industry must invest in new fertilizer and replanting to recover the affected 414,000 hectares of sugarcane and regrowth areas.

Strong structural tailwinds from the global shift toward low-carbon energy and biofuels.

The long-term outlook for Cosan is strong, but it's not a straight line. The global push for decarbonization is a massive structural tailwind, positioning Raízen as a key player in the low-carbon liquid fuels market. Biofuels are expected to see their share in total liquid fuel demand rise to 6.4% by 2030.

This shift is driven by concrete regulatory action, such as the European Union's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, which mandates a minimum of 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending by 2025. Raízen is one of the few companies globally that can produce advanced biofuels at scale, which is why major oil companies are concentrating their investment in fuels like SAF and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO). This is a huge competitive advantage.

Still, you need to be a realist. The first-generation (crop-based) biofuels face increasing scrutiny from the scientific community, with some reports suggesting they are globally responsible for 16% more emissions than the fossil fuels they replace on average. This means the future value lies in second-generation (2G) ethanol and advanced biofuels, where Raízen is a leader.

Raízen's crushing pace is challenged by adverse weather but operational focus remains high.

While the overall environment was challenging, Raízen's operational strategy focused on mitigating the damage to maintain a high crushing pace. The company's goal was to process affected cane quickly, as quality drops sharply after a fire. This operational agility is crucial when dealing with extreme weather events.

The actual impact of the adverse conditions is visible in the company's environmental metrics for the 2024/25 crop year:

• Gross overall Scope 1 GHG emissions were 3,179,507 tCO2e.
• GHG emissions intensity rose to 0.046 tCO2e/metric ton of sugarcane, up from 0.034 in the previous year.
• Energy intensity ratio increased significantly to 4.16 GJ/T of crushed sugarcane from 2.55 in the prior period.

The increase in emissions intensity shows the operational cost of climate adversity-more energy is needed to process lower-quality or damaged cane, or to manage the fields under stress. This is the real-world cost of climate change on the balance sheet.

Focus on sustainable agriculture to mitigate climate change risks and ensure long-term yield stability.

To counter the long-term climate risks, Cosan S.A. is leaning into sustainable agriculture practices. This is a must-have, not a nice-to-have, for long-term yield stability. The industry is moving toward regenerative agriculture, which focuses on restoring soil health and improving water retention.

Raízen's specific efforts in this area are quantified by its commitment to third-party verification, which is what investors want to see:

• The percentage of agricultural raw materials certified to the Bonsucro standard (a global sustainability certification for sugarcane) reached 11% in the 2024/25 crop year.
• The focus is on precision agriculture technologies, like sensors and data analytics, to optimize resource use and reduce input wastage.

The immediate action for Cosan is to accelerate the adoption of these climate-smart techniques to ensure that future harvests are less susceptible to the drought and fire cycles that have plagued the 2025 period. Finance: track the capital expenditure allocated to regenerative agriculture R&D and implementation by the next quarter's earnings call.