Greif, Inc. (GEF): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

En el mundo dinámico del embalaje industrial, Greif, Inc. (GMEF) se encuentra en una intersección crítica de desafíos globales y soluciones innovadoras. Este análisis integral de morteros revela el complejo panorama que da forma a las decisiones estratégicas de la Compañía, revelando cómo las tensiones políticas, las fluctuaciones económicas, los cambios sociales, los avances tecnológicos, los marcos legales y los imperativos ambientales convergen para definir el notable viaje de Greif en el mercado de envases industriales competitivos. Coloque profundamente en los factores multifacéticos que impulsan la resistencia y adaptabilidad de este líder global en un ecosistema comercial en constante cambio.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

Políticas comerciales globales Impacto en el embalaje y la fabricación de contenedores industriales

A partir de 2024, Greif, Inc. enfrenta desafíos significativos de las políticas comerciales globales que afectan sus operaciones de fabricación de envases y envases industriales. La exposición al comercio internacional de la compañía es sustancial, con aproximadamente 40% de los ingresos generados por los mercados internacionales.

Región	Impacto en la política comercial	Efecto financiero estimado
América del norte	Regulaciones comerciales de USMCA	Costos potenciales de cumplimiento de $ 325 millones
unión Europea	Mecanismo de ajuste de borde de carbono	47 millones de euros potenciales gastos adicionales
Asia-Pacífico	Restricciones comerciales bilaterales	$ 215 millones potenciales interrupciones de la cadena de suministro

Aranceles potenciales y regulaciones de comercio internacional

Las operaciones de la cadena de suministro de Greif se ven afectadas críticamente por las regulaciones de comercio internacional. Las tensiones comerciales actuales han resultado en:

• Las tarifas arancelas promedio que aumentan en un 7,5% en las regiones de fabricación clave
• Costos adicionales de cumplimiento de aduanas estimados en $ 18.3 millones anuales
• Posibles gastos de reconfiguración de la cadena de suministro de aproximadamente $ 42 millones

Políticas de fabricación de EE. UU.

Las estrategias de producción nacionales están influenciadas por varios factores de política clave:

Área de política	Impacto específico	Implicación financiera
Incentivos de fabricación	Créditos fiscales de producción nacional	$ 12.5 millones de ahorros fiscales potenciales
Regulaciones laborales	Aumentos del salario mínimo	$ 8.7 millones en costos laborales adicionales
Cumplimiento ambiental	Mandatos de reducción de emisiones	Se requieren una inversión de $ 22.6 millones

Potencial de interrupción de tensiones geopolíticas

Los riesgos geopolíticos en las regiones operativas presentan desafíos comerciales significativos:

• Región de Medio Oriente: 15% de riesgo potencial de interrupción de la cadena de suministro
• Mercados de Europa del Este: 12% de incertidumbre operativa
• Tensiones comerciales de Asia-Pacífico: 18% de impacto potencial de ingresos

La exposición total al riesgo político de la compañía se estima en $ 76.4 millones para el año fiscal 2024, que representa el 5.2% del total de ingresos proyectados.

Greif, Inc. (GMEF) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

Fluctuando las condiciones económicas globales impactar la demanda de envases industriales

Greif, Inc. informó ventas netas de $ 4.943 mil millones para el año fiscal 2023, con ingresos del segmento de envasado industrial global de $ 3.213 mil millones. Los ingresos de la compañía demuestran sensibilidad a las variaciones económicas globales.

Indicador económico	Valor 2023	Cambio año tras año
Ventas netas	$ 4.943 mil millones	-4.6%
Ingresos de envasado industrial global	$ 3.213 mil millones	-5.2%

Inflación y tasas de interés que afectan la inversión de capital

A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2023, los gastos de capital de Greif totalizaron $ 137 millones, lo que refleja la inversión estratégica a pesar de los desafíos económicos.

Métrico de inversión	Valor 2023
Gastos de capital	$ 137 millones
Deuda a largo plazo	$ 1.47 mil millones

Volatilidad del precio de los productos básicos que influyen en los costos de las materias primas

Los costos de materia prima afectan significativamente la economía de producción de envases de Greif:

• Los precios del acero fluctuaron entre $ 600 y $ 900 por tonelada en 2023
• Los costos de resina promediaron $ 1.20- $ 1.50 por libra
• Los gastos de logística y transporte aumentaron en un 7,3%

Recuperación económica en los sectores de fabricación

El rendimiento del sector de fabricación se correlaciona directamente con las fuentes de ingresos de Greif:

Sector manufacturero	Tasa de crecimiento 2023
Fabricación de productos químicos	2.1%
Comida y bebida	3.4%
Sector agrícola	1.9%

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

El aumento de la conciencia de sostenibilidad impulsa la demanda de soluciones de embalaje ecológicas

Según el informe del mercado global de envases sostenibles, el tamaño del mercado se valoró en $ 237.8 mil millones en 2022 y se proyecta que alcanzará los $ 370.5 mil millones para 2030, con una tasa compuesta anual del 5.7%.

Métrica de sostenibilidad	Datos 2022	2030 proyección
Tamaño del mercado de embalaje ecológico	$ 237.8 mil millones	$ 370.5 mil millones
Tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta	5.7%	5.7%

Los cambios demográficos de la fuerza laboral impactan estrategias de adquisición y retención de talento

Composición Millennial y Gen Z de la fuerza laboral: A partir de 2023, los millennials representan el 35% de la fuerza laboral global, con la Generación Z que representa el 27%.

Generación	Porcentaje de la fuerza laboral	Tenencia promedio
Millennials	35%	3.2 años
Gen Z	27%	2.5 años

El creciente énfasis en la responsabilidad social corporativa influye en las prácticas de la empresa

El 78% de los consumidores prefieren empresas que demuestren fuertes prácticas de responsabilidad social corporativa (RSE), según el estudio de RSE de comunicaciones de Cone Communications 2023.

Métrica de CSR	Porcentaje
Los consumidores prefieren empresas socialmente responsables	78%
Empresas con programas formales de RSE	65%

Cambiar las preferencias del consumidor hacia envases industriales sostenibles

Se espera que el mercado de envases industriales alcance los $ 72.5 mil millones para 2027, con soluciones de envasado sostenible que crecen a 6.2% CAGR.

Mercado de embalaje industrial	Valor 2022	Proyección 2027	Tocón
Tamaño total del mercado	$ 55.3 mil millones	$ 72.5 mil millones	6.2%

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Las tecnologías de fabricación avanzadas mejoran la eficiencia de producción

Greif, Inc. invirtió $ 12.3 millones en tecnologías de fabricación avanzada en 2023, apuntando a una mejora del 17.5% en la eficiencia de producción. La compañía implementó sistemas de mecanizado CNC con una tasa de precisión del 99.7% en sus instalaciones de fabricación.

Inversión tecnológica	Gasto anual	Ganancia de eficiencia
Sistemas de fabricación avanzados	$ 12.3 millones	17.5%
Precisión de mecanizado CNC	99.7%	Errores de fabricación reducidos

Transformación digital en la gestión de la cadena de suministro

GREIF implementó la plataforma digital SAP S/4HANA, logrando una mejora del 22.6% en las capacidades operativas de la cadena de suministro. La transformación digital redujo los costos de logística en $ 4.7 millones en 2023.

Plataforma digital	Ahorro de costos	Mejora operativa
SAP S/4HANA	$ 4.7 millones	22.6%

Automatización y robótica en la fabricación de envases

GREIF desplegó 47 sistemas robóticos en la fabricación de envases, reduciendo los costos de mano de obra en un 15,3% y aumentando la velocidad de producción en un 28,4%. La inversión total en robótica alcanzó los $ 9.2 millones en 2023.

Sistemas robóticos	Inversión total	Reducción de costos de mano de obra	Aumento de la velocidad de producción
47 unidades robóticas	$ 9.2 millones	15.3%	28.4%

IoT y análisis de datos para ideas operativas

Greif integró sensores de IoT en 63 ubicaciones de fabricación, generando 2.4 petabytes de datos operativos anualmente. La inversión en análisis de datos alcanzó los $ 6.5 millones, lo que permitió el mantenimiento predictivo y la reducción del tiempo de inactividad del equipo en un 19,2%.

Implementación de IoT	Generación de datos	Inversión analítica	Reducción del tiempo de inactividad
63 ubicaciones de fabricación	2.4 petabytes/año	$ 6.5 millones	19.2%

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Cumplimiento de las regulaciones ambientales en múltiples jurisdicciones

Greif, Inc. reportó $ 4.3 millones en gastos de cumplimiento ambiental en 2023. La compañía opera bajo la regulación de la EPA 40 CFR Partes 260-279 para la gestión de residuos peligrosos.

Jurisdicción	Costo de cumplimiento	Reglamentario
Estados Unidos	$ 2.1 millones	Ley de aire limpio/agua de la EPA
unión Europea	1.5 millones de euros	Alcanzar regulación
Porcelana	¥ 3.2 millones	Ley de protección del medio ambiente MEP

Protección de propiedad intelectual

Greif posee 37 patentes activas a partir de 2024, con un valor estimado de cartera de propiedades intelectuales de $ 62.4 millones.

Categoría de patente	Número de patentes	Jurisdicción de protección
Tecnología de envasado	22	Estados Unidos, UE, China
Diseño de contenedores industriales	15	América del Norte, Europa

Regulaciones de seguridad en el lugar de trabajo

La tasa de incidentes registrables de OSHA para GREIF fue de 1.2 por cada 100 trabajadores en 2023. La inversión total de seguridad en el lugar de trabajo alcanzó los $ 5.7 millones.

Métrica de seguridad	2023 rendimiento	Cumplimiento regulatorio
Tasa de incidentes	1.2/100 trabajadores	Estándares de OSHA
Horas de entrenamiento de seguridad	42,500 horas	ANSI Z490.1

Cumplimiento del comercio internacional

Greif procesó $ 1.2 mil millones en transacciones comerciales internacionales, con costos de cumplimiento de $ 3.4 millones en 2023.

Área de cumplimiento comercial	Volumen de transacción	Marco regulatorio
Controles de exportación	$ 675 millones	Regulaciones de administración de exportaciones de EE. UU.
Cumplimiento de la importación	$ 525 millones	Ley de modernización de aduanas

GREIF, Inc. (GEF) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Compromiso con soluciones de envasado sostenible y principios de economía circular

Greif, Inc. informó un Aumento del 22% en los ingresos de envasado sostenible En el año fiscal 2023, llegando a $ 1.47 mil millones. Las iniciativas de economía circular de la compañía se centraron en reducir los desechos de materiales y promover soluciones de envasado reciclable.

Métrica de empaque sostenible	2023 datos
Ingresos de embalaje sostenibles	$ 1.47 mil millones
Contenido reciclado en el embalaje	37.5%
Inversión en economía circular	$ 42.3 millones

Reducción de la huella de carbono en los procesos de fabricación

Greif se comprometió a reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero por 30% para 2030. En 2023, la compañía logró una reducción del 15.6% en las emisiones de fabricación directa en comparación con la línea de base de 2019.

Métrica de huella de carbono	2023 datos
Reducción total de emisiones de carbono	15.6%
Mejoras de eficiencia energética	8.2%
Inversión de reducción de carbono	$ 28.7 millones

Iniciativas de gestión de residuos y reciclaje en la producción de envases

Greif implementó estrategias integrales de reducción de residuos, logrando 64.3% de tasa de desvío de residuos En todo el fabricante en 2023.

Métrica de gestión de residuos	2023 datos
Tasa de desvío de residuos	64.3%
Volumen de material reciclado	127,500 toneladas métricas
Gasto de reducción de desechos	$ 19.6 millones

Adopción de fuentes de energía renovable en instalaciones de fabricación

Greif amplió el uso de energía renovable, con 24.6% del consumo total de energía ahora derivado de fuentes renovables en 2023.

Métrica de energía renovable	2023 datos
Porcentaje de energía renovable	24.6%
Instalaciones de energía solar	12 sitios de fabricación
Inversión de energía renovable	$ 35.4 millones

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

E-commerce growth continues to drive demand for corrugated and containerboard packaging.

The structural shift toward online shopping continues to be a primary tailwind for Greif's fiber-based packaging segments in 2025. You see this clearly in the market data: the e-commerce and parcel delivery segment is forecasted to account for a massive 36.4% share of the corrugated box market's end-use category this year. This is a huge, consistent demand driver, so Greif's focus on containerboard products is defintely the right move.

The North American corrugated and folding carton packaging market alone was recorded at $37.27 billion in 2025, driven by the need for protective, lightweight, and brandable shipping solutions. Corrugated board makes up about 30% of the total e-commerce packaging market, and Greif specifically anticipates increased demand for its containerboard products in the U.S. through fiscal 2025. This is a high-volume, low-margin business, but the sheer scale of e-commerce makes it a reliable revenue anchor.

Labor shortages in manufacturing and logistics increase wage costs and operational risk.

The tight US labor market is a persistent headwind for all manufacturers, including Greif. Manufacturing and logistics are two of the sectors most affected by rising wages and a persistent shortage of skilled labor in 2025. As of 2025, the average annual wage increase has stabilized at around 4.2%, which puts pressure on Greif's cost of goods sold (COGS).

Here's the quick math on the pressure: 21 states implemented minimum wage hikes as of January 1, 2025, resulting in a projected total wage increase of $5.7 billion annually across the affected workers. To counter these rising labor costs and drive efficiency, Greif is executing an aggressive cost optimization plan, which included eliminating roughly 8% of professional roles in fiscal Q4 2025. This restructuring is expected to deliver 2025 run-rate savings of $50 million, more than double the initial target, but it also introduces short-term operational complexity.

Consumer preference for sustainable packaging forces product portfolio shifts.

Consumer demand for environmentally friendly packaging is no longer a niche trend; it's a core business mandate. An overwhelming 90% of shoppers are more likely to purchase from brands that use sustainable packaging, and 43% are willing to pay a premium for it. This is a clear signal to packaging providers like Greif that paper-based and circular solutions are the future.

Greif is responding with a strategic shift, evidenced by its new segment structure for 2025 that features a dedicated 'Sustainable Fiber Solutions' unit. The company has set ambitious 2030 targets that directly address this consumer-driven shift:

• Make 100% of products recyclable.
• Achieve an average of 60% recycled raw material content.
• Reach Zero Waste to Landfill at 97% of production facilities.

The paper-based packaging favored by 31% of consumers gives Greif a strong foundational advantage in this market. This is a critical opportunity for margin expansion, but it requires continuous capital investment in new technology.

Increased public scrutiny on corporate social responsibility (CSR) demands transparent supply chains.

Stakeholders-from investors to customers-are demanding greater transparency in the supply chain, especially regarding ethical labor and sourcing practices. Greif has made measurable progress in this area, achieving its FY2024 target of assessing the sustainability performance for 61% of its total supplier spend. The long-term goal is to evaluate 80% of total spend by 2030.

Still, there is a clear risk exposure here. While Greif incorporates its Supplier Code of Conduct into all purchase orders, the company does not currently verify product supply chains to evaluate and address risks of human trafficking and slavery, nor does it audit its suppliers directly. This reliance on supplier warranties, rather than independent verification, is a potential vulnerability under increasing CSR scrutiny.

The following table summarizes key social and operational metrics for Greif in 2025, highlighting the dual focus on efficiency and sustainability:

Metric	2025 Value/Target	Social/Operational Impact
Full-Year Net Sales (11-month reported)	$3.93 billion	Reflects overall demand, including e-commerce-driven packaging volumes.
FY2025 Cost Optimization Savings (Run-Rate)	$50 million	Direct action to mitigate rising labor and operational costs.
E-commerce Share of Corrugated Market End-Use	36.4%	Primary driver of demand for Greif's Sustainable Fiber Solutions.
Supplier Spend Assessed for Sustainability (FY2024 Achieved)	61%	Measure of supply chain transparency and CSR risk mitigation.
2030 Recycled Raw Material Content Target	60%	Strategic response to consumer preference for circular packaging.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Automation of production lines is necessary to offset rising labor costs and improve efficiency.

You know that in industrial packaging, labor costs are a relentless pressure point. Greif, Inc. is directly countering this with a focused Enterprise Automation Strategy, which is a key component of their broader cost optimization program. This isn't just about cutting headcount; it's about increasing output per worker and improving safety, especially in the more mature Durable Metals and Sustainable Fiber segments where growth is driven by efficiency, not volume.

The results of this technological push are already showing up in the financials. For fiscal year 2025, Greif achieved $50 million in run-rate savings from its cost optimization program, which is more than double the initial commitment of $15 million to $25 million. The company is accelerating this plan, raising the total anticipated savings commitment to $120 million by the end of fiscal year 2027. Here's the quick math: that's a significant operational tailwind, helping to offset the general industrial recession Greif navigated in 2025.

A key enabler for this is disciplined capital allocation (CapEx). Following the divestiture of its most capital-intensive businesses, Greif's maintenance CapEx needs are approximately $25 million lower, freeing up capital to invest in high-return automation projects. They are prioritizing plant modernization to implement these new automated processes.

Digitalization of the supply chain (e.g., smart packaging, IoT sensors) is a competitive advantage.

The future of packaging is connected, and Greif is making moves to ensure its supply chain is a competitive advantage, not a cost center. They are accelerating the delivery of customer service through digital technologies and experiences, notably via the Greif$^+$ digital platform. This is the company's push to connect processes, people, and data, empowering customers and colleagues with innovative digital solutions.

While the company is still in the early stages of its Business Modernization Program, the opportunity is massive. The global smart packaging market is estimated to reach over $52 billion in 2025, with IoT-enabled packaging alone being a $20.26 billion opportunity. Greif's focus on artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics, including a revised pay structure for AI-related work, shows an internal commitment to building the expertise needed to capture this value. This technology is defintely a key to better tracking and condition monitoring in transit.

The strategic focus areas include:

• Expanding the Greif$^+$ digital platform for enhanced customer experience.
• Leveraging AI and digital solutions in production for efficiency and safety.
• Implementing a Business Modernization Program to align systems with 2030 goals.

Investment in advanced recycling technologies for fiber and plastics is crucial.

Sustainability is no longer a separate initiative; it's a core technological requirement in the packaging industry. Greif is a major player in the circular economy, which is a significant technological moat. Their Recycled Materials Group (RMG) collected 3.4 million metric tons of material in 2024, and they are a net-positive recycler.

The company's 2030 sustainability targets are aggressive and require continuous technological investment:

Sustainability Target (By 2030)	Metric	Technological Implication
Recycled Raw Material Content	Achieve an average of 60% across products.	Requires advanced sorting and processing technology for both fiber and plastics.
Product Recyclability	Make 100% of products recyclable.	Requires R&D into material science, like the Greif EnviroRAP 100% recycled paperboard with a water-based coating.
Waste to Landfill	Reach Zero Waste to Landfill at 97% of production facilities.	Requires sophisticated waste management and conversion technology.

For plastics, Greif has invested in joint ventures, such as increasing its stake in Centurion Container LLC to 80% as of April 2023, to expand its intermediate bulk container (IBC) reconditioning network. This reconditioning is a key form of advanced recycling, extending the life of high-value plastic assets. Simply put, their recycling scale is a competitive advantage.

Use of predictive analytics to manage inventory and forecast volatile raw material pricing.

The industrial packaging business is highly sensitive to raw material price volatility-think steel, fiber, and polymer resins. Greif is moving past simple historical forecasting by leveraging predictive analytics, a capability supported by their focus on AI and data analytics.

The company's strategic infrastructure, including a global logistics control tower, is the operational backbone for this analytical approach. This centralizes data to provide real-time visibility, which is essential for managing inventory levels and optimizing working capital.

The tangible benefit is seen in the cost optimization results. Approximately $15 million of the fiscal 2025 savings were achieved through improvements in network design and operating efficiency, which are areas heavily influenced by advanced planning and forecasting tools. This data-driven approach to pricing and inventory was a factor in Greif's improved price/cost realization in the second quarter of 2025, which contributed to their raised full-year guidance. They are effectively using technology to take the guesswork out of a volatile market.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Enforcement of anti-trust regulations in the highly consolidated packaging industry is a constant threat.

You operate in a highly consolidated global market, so antitrust enforcement is a critical, near-term legal risk that can carry massive financial penalties. The US Department of Justice and the European Commission are actively scrutinizing mergers and pricing practices, especially in industries where a few large players dominate.

The risk is not theoretical. Greif, Inc. was named as a defendant in a class-action antitrust lawsuit filed in federal court in Illinois in July 2025. The suit alleges that containerboard manufacturers engaged in price collusion over a series of seven price increases spanning from November 2020. A successful claim could lead to the court awarding treble damages (three times the amount of actual damages), which would be a catastrophic financial hit.

Furthermore, the $1.8 billion sale of the Containerboard Business to Packaging Corporation of America, which closed in August 2025, was subject to regulatory approvals, underscoring the intense scrutiny placed on any major consolidation move in the packaging sector.

Strict international regulations on the transport of hazardous materials (HAZMAT) require compliance investment.

Greif's primary business-industrial packaging like steel drums and Intermediate Bulk Containers (IBCs)-is the backbone of HAZMAT transport, meaning compliance with regulations like the US Department of Transportation (DOT), European Agreement concerning the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road (ADR), and International Maritime Dangerous Goods (IMDG) Code is non-negotiable. The cost of maintaining this compliance is a constant drain on capital expenditures and operating expenses.

While a specific HAZMAT budget line item isn't public, the need for operational efficiency to offset compliance costs is clear. Greif is aggressively driving down costs, achieving $50 million in run-rate savings from its optimization program in fiscal 2025. This focus on efficiency is defintely tied to streamlining the complex, legally-mandated processes for testing, certifying, and tracking HAZMAT-compliant packaging across its global footprint. You simply cannot afford a compliance failure here.

New Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes shift recycling costs onto producers.

Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes are a growing legal challenge, shifting the financial and operational burden of managing post-consumer waste from municipalities to packaging producers like Greif. This is a direct cost driver in key markets like the European Union and an increasing number of US states.

Greif is already responding with quantifiable investments in its circular economy initiatives, which mitigate future EPR fees. This is a smart action. In Q3 2025, the company lobbied on US legislation like the 'S.361 STEWARD Act' and other EPR-related bills, showing a proactive effort to shape the rules. The company's operational response is significant:

• Collected 3.6 million containers through its Life Cycle Services.
• Increased the use of post-consumer resin (PCR) in its products by 37% year-over-year.

This operational data shows the company is investing in the infrastructure and material changes required to meet the legal mandates for recycled content and end-of-life management, essentially internalizing the costs that EPR schemes seek to impose.

Varying global data privacy laws (like GDPR) complicate international customer data management.

Operating in over 40 countries means Greif must navigate a fragmented and ever-changing legal landscape for data privacy, including the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and various US state laws like the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). The company's reliance on extensive computer systems for customer, vendor, and employee data makes it highly vulnerable to non-compliance fines and breaches.

The financial risk is enormous. Greif's full-year 2025 net sales were approximately $3.93 billion (for the 11-month fiscal year). A major GDPR violation could result in a fine of up to €20 million or 4% of that global annual turnover, whichever is greater. For a company of Greif's size, that 4% figure represents a maximum potential fine of nearly $157.2 million based on 2025 sales, which is a massive liability. The average cost of a breach where non-compliance was a factor was already $5.05 million in 2025, a 12.6% increase over the general cost of a data breach.

Here's the quick math on the potential exposure:

Metric	Value (Fiscal 2025)	Source/Context
Full-Year Net Sales (Approx.)	$3.93 billion	11-month fiscal year period.
Maximum GDPR Fine (% of Global Turnover)	4%	Standard legal maximum for severe violations.
Maximum Potential Fine (4% of Sales)	~$157.2 million	A top-end, worst-case scenario fine.
Average Cost of Non-Compliance Breach	$5.05 million	Industry average cost for a breach where regulatory non-compliance was a factor.

This mandates a continuous, high-level investment in data governance and cybersecurity controls, not just in IT, but in legal and training across all global business units.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Goal to reduce Scope 1 and 2 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 requires significant capital expenditure.

You need a clear picture of the capital commitment behind Greif, Inc.'s climate goals. The company has set an ambitious, science-aligned target: to reduce absolute Scope 1 (direct) and Scope 2 (indirect from purchased energy) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 28 percent by 2030, using a 2019 baseline. This isn't cheap; it requires substantial, ongoing investment in new technology and energy sourcing.

To meet this, Greif is prioritizing energy efficiency projects and renewable energy procurement. In 2024, the company invested $5 million in sustainability projects. A major step in 2025 was the commencement of a 12-year Virtual Power Purchase Agreement (VPPA) for 100 GWh of renewable energy annually in Europe. This single initiative is expected to offset approximately 65 percent of Greif's Scope 2 emissions in Europe and about 3 percent of its total global Scope 1 and 2 emissions. Here's the quick math on the impact of their energy strategy:

Metric	Target / Status	Baseline / Context
2030 GHG Reduction Goal (Scope 1 & 2)	28% absolute reduction	2019 Baseline
2025 European Scope 2 Offset (VPPA)	Approx. 65%	European electricity consumption
2024 Renewable Energy Share	16% (892 MWh)	Total energy consumption
2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance	At least $725 million	Provides financial capacity for CapEx

What this estimate hides is the long-term capital expenditure (CapEx) required for the remaining 25 percent reduction. The company must continue to integrate green technology into its global operations, which will be a persistent drag on free cash flow in the near term, even as their 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance was raised to at least $725 million.

Water usage restrictions in drought-prone areas affect mill operations.

Water is a defintely critical resource, especially since Greif's paperboard mills account for roughly 90 percent of its global water usage. Operating in areas subject to water stress or drought, particularly in the US, means regulatory pressure and operational risk are high. The company's response is a focus on efficiency and discharge quality.

The key 2025 goal is a reduction in Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD)-a measure of water pollution-discharged from the Riverville and Massillon mills by 10 percent per metric ton of production, compared to a 2014 baseline. This is a direct response to regulatory and community concerns about water quality.

The conservation efforts are already showing results, which helps mitigate the risk of operational restrictions:

• Total water withdrawal declined by 10 percent since 2019.
• Water consumption rate per metric ton of production decreased by 46 percent in 2024 compared to the 2019 baseline.
• The company is evaluating three specific projects for implementation (2023-2025) to further reduce water use at its mills.

This aggressive reduction in water intensity is a necessary defense against future drought-related restrictions that could force production cuts at key US facilities.

Increased pressure from investors and NGOs to use 100% recycled or sustainably sourced materials.

Investor and NGO pressure for a circular economy model is intense, and Greif is responding with clear, measurable targets that affect product design and sourcing. The market is demanding packaging that can prove its low environmental impact.

Greif's long-term circularity goals are to make 100 percent of its products recyclable by 2030 and to achieve an average of 60 percent recycled raw material content across all products by 2030. They are already ahead in their fiber-based business, which is a major competitive advantage.

Here is the current status of their material sourcing and circularity efforts, demonstrating a strong position as of the 2025 fiscal year:

• The Paper Packaging Services segment is sourced from 100 percent recycled content.
• In 2024, 71 percent of all fiber products manufactured were sourced from recycled materials.
• Use of post-consumer resin (PCR) in plastic products increased by 37% year-over-year in 2024.
• The Life Cycle Services network reconditioned and sold more than 1.2 million steel drums in 2024.

This focus on recycled content, especially the 100 percent recycled content in the Paper Packaging Services segment, is a strong selling point for customers who have their own Scope 3 (value chain) emissions targets.

Waste-to-energy initiatives help offset energy costs but face regulatory hurdles.

Greif views waste not just as a cost, but as a potential energy source and a key part of its circularity strategy. The 2025 Goal is to divert 90 percent of waste from landfills globally from all legacy production facilities. This is a crucial step toward its 2030 goal of reaching zero waste-to-landfill (ZWTL) at 97 percent of its production facilities.

The waste diversion strategy explicitly includes incineration with energy recovery, a form of waste-to-energy. This helps offset energy costs, and the company is making significant progress in waste diversion:

• In 2024, Greif diverted 87% of waste from landfill.
• 60 production facilities achieved zero waste-to-landfill (ZWTL) status in 2024.
• Energy efficiency projects at the LATAM Tigre location completed as of November 2023 resulted in an energy cost savings of $29,300 per year.

The primary hurdle here is regulatory complexity. While waste-to-energy is an option, it often faces strict air quality and permitting regulations, especially in the US and Europe, which can slow down new project implementation and increase compliance costs. Still, the overall waste reduction and ZWTL progress are strong indicators of operational efficiency.

Finance: Track the CapEx spend rate against the 28% GHG reduction target quarterly.