Greif, Inc. (GEF): Análise de Pestle [Jan-2025 Atualizado]

No mundo dinâmico da embalagem industrial, a Greif, Inc. (GEF) está em uma interseção crítica de desafios globais e soluções inovadoras. Essa análise abrangente de pestles revela o cenário complexo que molda as decisões estratégicas da empresa, revelando como tensões políticas, flutuações econômicas, mudanças sociais, avanços tecnológicos, estruturas legais e imperativos ambientais convergem para definir a notável jornada de Greif no mercado de embalagens industriais competitivas. Mergulhe profundamente nos fatores multifacetados que impulsionam a resiliência e a adaptabilidade desse líder global em um ecossistema de negócios em constante mudança.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Políticos

As políticas comerciais globais impactam as embalagens e a fabricação de contêineres industriais

A partir de 2024, a Greif, Inc. enfrenta desafios significativos das políticas comerciais globais que afetam suas operações de fabricação de embalagens e contêineres industriais. A exposição comercial internacional da empresa é substancial, com aproximadamente 40% da receita gerada a partir de mercados internacionais.

Região	Impacto da política comercial	Efeito financeiro estimado
América do Norte	Regulamentos comerciais da USMCA	US $ 325 milhões em potenciais custos de conformidade
União Europeia	Mecanismo de ajuste de borda de carbono	€ 47 milhões em potenciais despesas adicionais
Ásia-Pacífico	Restrições comerciais bilaterais	US $ 215 milhões potenciais interrupções da cadeia de suprimentos

Potenciais tarifas e regulamentos comerciais internacionais

As operações da cadeia de suprimentos da Greif são criticamente impactadas pelos regulamentos internacionais de comércio. As tensões comerciais atuais resultaram em:

• As taxas de tarifas médias aumentando em 7,5% nas principais regiões de fabricação
• Custos de conformidade aduaneira adicionais estimados em US $ 18,3 milhões anualmente
• Despesas potenciais da reconfiguração da cadeia de suprimentos de aproximadamente US $ 42 milhões

Políticas de fabricação dos EUA

As estratégias de produção doméstica são influenciadas por vários fatores políticos importantes:

Área de Política	Impacto específico	Implicação financeira
Incentivos de fabricação	Créditos fiscais de produção doméstica	US $ 12,5 milhões em potencial economia de impostos
Regulamentos trabalhistas	O salário mínimo aumenta	US $ 8,7 milhões de custos trabalhistas adicionais
Conformidade ambiental	Mandatos de redução de emissões	US $ 22,6 milhões de investimentos necessários

Potencial de interrupção de tensões geopolíticas

Os riscos geopolíticos nas regiões operacionais apresentam desafios comerciais significativos:

• Região do Oriente Médio: 15% de risco de interrupção potencial da cadeia de suprimentos
• Mercados da Europa Oriental: 12% de incerteza operacional
• Tensões comerciais da Ásia-Pacífico: 18% de impacto potencial de receita

A exposição total ao risco político da empresa é estimado em US $ 76,4 milhões para o ano fiscal de 2024, representando 5,2% da receita total projetada.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Econômicos

As condições econômicas globais flutuantes afetam a demanda de embalagens industriais

A Greif, Inc. registrou vendas líquidas de US $ 4,943 bilhões para o ano fiscal de 2023, com receita global de segmento de embalagem industrial de US $ 3,213 bilhões. A receita da empresa demonstra sensibilidade às variações econômicas globais.

Indicador econômico	2023 valor	Mudança de ano a ano
Vendas líquidas	US $ 4,943 bilhões	-4.6%
Receita global de embalagem industrial	US $ 3,213 bilhões	-5.2%

Inflação e taxas de juros que afetam o investimento de capital

No quarto trimestre de 2023, as despesas de capital de Greif totalizaram US $ 137 milhões, refletindo o investimento estratégico, apesar dos desafios econômicos.

Métrica de investimento	2023 valor
Despesas de capital	US $ 137 milhões
Dívida de longo prazo	US $ 1,47 bilhão

Volatilidade dos preços de commodities influenciando os custos de matéria -prima

Os custos da matéria -prima afetam significativamente a economia da produção de embalagens de Greif:

• Os preços do aço flutuaram entre US $ 600 e US $ 900 por tonelada em 2023
• Os custos de resina em média de US $ 1,20 a US $ 1,50 por libra
• As despesas de logística e transporte aumentaram 7,3%

Recuperação econômica em setores de manufatura

O desempenho do setor manufatureiro se correlaciona diretamente com os fluxos de receita da GREIF:

Setor de manufatura	2023 Taxa de crescimento
Fabricação química	2.1%
Comida e bebida	3.4%
Setor agrícola	1.9%

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análise de pilão: Fatores sociais

O aumento da conscientização da sustentabilidade impulsiona a demanda por soluções de embalagens ecológicas

De acordo com o relatório global do mercado de embalagens sustentáveis, o tamanho do mercado foi avaliado em US $ 237,8 bilhões em 2022 e deve atingir US $ 370,5 bilhões até 2030, com um CAGR de 5,7%.

Métrica de sustentabilidade	2022 dados	2030 Projeção
Tamanho do mercado de embalagens ecologicamente corretas	US $ 237,8 bilhões	US $ 370,5 bilhões
Taxa de crescimento anual composta	5.7%	5.7%

Mudanças demográficas da força de trabalho impactam estratégias de aquisição e retenção de talentos

Millennial e Gen Z Workforce Composition: Em 2023, os millennials representam 35% da força de trabalho global, com a geração Z representando 27%.

Geração	Porcentagem da força de trabalho	Posse média
Millennials	35%	3,2 anos
Gen Z	27%	2,5 anos

Ênfase crescente na responsabilidade social corporativa influencia as práticas da empresa

78% dos consumidores preferem empresas que demonstram práticas fortes de responsabilidade social corporativa (RSE), de acordo com o estudo de RSE de RSE da Cone Communications 2023.

Métrica de RSE	Percentagem
Consumidores preferindo empresas socialmente responsáveis	78%
Empresas com programas formais de RSE	65%

Mudança de preferências do consumidor para embalagens industriais sustentáveis

O mercado de embalagens industriais deve atingir US $ 72,5 bilhões até 2027, com soluções de embalagens sustentáveis ​​crescendo a 6,2% da CAGR.

Mercado de embalagens industriais	2022 Valor	2027 Projeção	Cagr
Tamanho total do mercado	US $ 55,3 bilhões	US $ 72,5 bilhões	6.2%

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores tecnológicos

Tecnologias avançadas de fabricação melhoram a eficiência da produção

A Greif, Inc. investiu US $ 12,3 milhões em tecnologias avançadas de fabricação em 2023, visando uma melhoria de 17,5% na eficiência da produção. A empresa implementou sistemas de usinagem CNC com taxa de precisão de 99,7% em suas instalações de fabricação.

Investimento em tecnologia	Despesas anuais	Ganho de eficiência
Sistemas de fabricação avançados	US $ 12,3 milhões	17.5%
Precisão de usinagem CNC	99.7%	Erros de fabricação reduzidos

Transformação digital no gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos

O GREIF implementou a plataforma digital SAP S/4HANA, alcançando 22,6% de melhoria nos recursos operacionais da cadeia de suprimentos. A transformação digital reduziu os custos logísticos em US $ 4,7 milhões em 2023.

Plataforma digital	Economia de custos	Melhoria operacional
SAP S/4HANA	US $ 4,7 milhões	22.6%

Automação e robótica na fabricação de embalagens

A Greif implantou 47 sistemas robóticos na fabricação de embalagens, reduzindo os custos de mão -de -obra em 15,3% e aumentando a velocidade de produção em 28,4%. O investimento total em robótica atingiu US $ 9,2 milhões em 2023.

Sistemas robóticos	Investimento total	Redução de custos de mão -de -obra	Aumento da velocidade de produção
47 unidades robóticas	US $ 9,2 milhões	15.3%	28.4%

IoT e análise de dados para insights operacionais

Sensores de IoT integrados GREIF em 63 locais de fabricação, gerando 2,4 petabytes de dados operacionais anualmente. O investimento em análise de dados atingiu US $ 6,5 milhões, permitindo a manutenção preditiva e reduzindo o tempo de inatividade do equipamento em 19,2%.

Implementação da IoT	Geração de dados	Investimento de análise	Redução de tempo de inatividade
63 Locais de fabricação	2.4 Petabytes/ano	US $ 6,5 milhões	19.2%

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Legais

Conformidade com regulamentos ambientais em várias jurisdições

A Greif, Inc. registrou US $ 4,3 milhões em despesas de conformidade ambiental em 2023. A Companhia opera sob o Regulamento da EPA 40 Peças CFR 260-279 para gerenciamento de resíduos perigosos.

Jurisdição	Custo de conformidade	Padrão regulatório
Estados Unidos	US $ 2,1 milhões	Lei de ar limpo/água da EPA
União Europeia	1,5 milhão de euros	Regulamento de alcance
China	¥ 3,2 milhões	Lei de Proteção Ambiental do MEP

Proteção à propriedade intelectual

A Greif detém 37 patentes ativas a partir de 2024, com um valor estimado do portfólio de propriedade intelectual de US $ 62,4 milhões.

Categoria de patentes	Número de patentes	Jurisdição de proteção
Tecnologia de embalagem	22	Estados Unidos, UE, China
Design de contêineres industriais	15	América do Norte, Europa

Regulamentos de segurança no local de trabalho

A taxa de incidentes registrados da OSHA para Greif foi de 1,2 por 100 trabalhadores em 2023. O investimento total em segurança no local de trabalho atingiu US $ 5,7 milhões.

Métrica de segurança	2023 desempenho	Conformidade regulatória
Taxa de incidentes	1.2/100 trabalhadores	Padrões da OSHA
Horário de treinamento de segurança	42.500 horas	ANSI Z490.1

Conformidade comercial internacional

A Greif processou US $ 1,2 bilhão em transações comerciais internacionais, com custos de conformidade de US $ 3,4 milhões em 2023.

Área de conformidade comercial	Volume de transação	Estrutura regulatória
Controles de exportação	US $ 675 milhões	Regulamentos de Administração de Exportação dos EUA
Conformidade de importação	US $ 525 milhões	Lei de Modernização Aduaneira

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Ambientais

Compromisso com soluções de embalagem sustentável e princípios de economia circular

Greif, Inc. relatou um Aumento de 22% na receita de embalagem sustentável No ano fiscal de 2023, atingindo US $ 1,47 bilhão. As iniciativas de economia circular da empresa se concentraram na redução do desperdício de materiais e na promoção de soluções de embalagens recicláveis.

Métrica de embalagem sustentável	2023 dados
Receita de embalagem sustentável	US $ 1,47 bilhão
Conteúdo reciclado na embalagem	37.5%
Investimento em economia circular	US $ 42,3 milhões

Redução da pegada de carbono nos processos de fabricação

Greif se comprometeu a reduzir as emissões de gases de efeito estufa por 30% até 2030. Em 2023, a empresa alcançou uma redução de 15,6% nas emissões diretas de fabricação em comparação com a linha de base de 2019.

Métrica de pegada de carbono	2023 dados
Redução total de emissões de carbono	15.6%
Melhorias de eficiência energética	8.2%
Investimento de redução de carbono	US $ 28,7 milhões

Iniciativas de gerenciamento e reciclagem de resíduos na produção de embalagens

Greif implementou estratégias abrangentes de redução de resíduos, alcançando 64,3% da taxa de desvio de resíduos nas instalações de fabricação em 2023.

Métrica de gerenciamento de resíduos	2023 dados
Taxa de desvio de resíduos	64.3%
Volume de material reciclado	127.500 toneladas métricas
Gasto de redução de resíduos	US $ 19,6 milhões

Adoção de fontes de energia renovável em instalações de fabricação

Greif expandiu o uso de energia renovável, com 24,6% do consumo total de energia agora derivado de fontes renováveis ​​em 2023.

Métrica de energia renovável	2023 dados
Porcentagem de energia renovável	24.6%
Instalações de energia solar	12 locais de fabricação
Investimento de energia renovável	US $ 35,4 milhões

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

E-commerce growth continues to drive demand for corrugated and containerboard packaging.

The structural shift toward online shopping continues to be a primary tailwind for Greif's fiber-based packaging segments in 2025. You see this clearly in the market data: the e-commerce and parcel delivery segment is forecasted to account for a massive 36.4% share of the corrugated box market's end-use category this year. This is a huge, consistent demand driver, so Greif's focus on containerboard products is defintely the right move.

The North American corrugated and folding carton packaging market alone was recorded at $37.27 billion in 2025, driven by the need for protective, lightweight, and brandable shipping solutions. Corrugated board makes up about 30% of the total e-commerce packaging market, and Greif specifically anticipates increased demand for its containerboard products in the U.S. through fiscal 2025. This is a high-volume, low-margin business, but the sheer scale of e-commerce makes it a reliable revenue anchor.

Labor shortages in manufacturing and logistics increase wage costs and operational risk.

The tight US labor market is a persistent headwind for all manufacturers, including Greif. Manufacturing and logistics are two of the sectors most affected by rising wages and a persistent shortage of skilled labor in 2025. As of 2025, the average annual wage increase has stabilized at around 4.2%, which puts pressure on Greif's cost of goods sold (COGS).

Here's the quick math on the pressure: 21 states implemented minimum wage hikes as of January 1, 2025, resulting in a projected total wage increase of $5.7 billion annually across the affected workers. To counter these rising labor costs and drive efficiency, Greif is executing an aggressive cost optimization plan, which included eliminating roughly 8% of professional roles in fiscal Q4 2025. This restructuring is expected to deliver 2025 run-rate savings of $50 million, more than double the initial target, but it also introduces short-term operational complexity.

Consumer preference for sustainable packaging forces product portfolio shifts.

Consumer demand for environmentally friendly packaging is no longer a niche trend; it's a core business mandate. An overwhelming 90% of shoppers are more likely to purchase from brands that use sustainable packaging, and 43% are willing to pay a premium for it. This is a clear signal to packaging providers like Greif that paper-based and circular solutions are the future.

Greif is responding with a strategic shift, evidenced by its new segment structure for 2025 that features a dedicated 'Sustainable Fiber Solutions' unit. The company has set ambitious 2030 targets that directly address this consumer-driven shift:

• Make 100% of products recyclable.
• Achieve an average of 60% recycled raw material content.
• Reach Zero Waste to Landfill at 97% of production facilities.

The paper-based packaging favored by 31% of consumers gives Greif a strong foundational advantage in this market. This is a critical opportunity for margin expansion, but it requires continuous capital investment in new technology.

Increased public scrutiny on corporate social responsibility (CSR) demands transparent supply chains.

Stakeholders-from investors to customers-are demanding greater transparency in the supply chain, especially regarding ethical labor and sourcing practices. Greif has made measurable progress in this area, achieving its FY2024 target of assessing the sustainability performance for 61% of its total supplier spend. The long-term goal is to evaluate 80% of total spend by 2030.

Still, there is a clear risk exposure here. While Greif incorporates its Supplier Code of Conduct into all purchase orders, the company does not currently verify product supply chains to evaluate and address risks of human trafficking and slavery, nor does it audit its suppliers directly. This reliance on supplier warranties, rather than independent verification, is a potential vulnerability under increasing CSR scrutiny.

The following table summarizes key social and operational metrics for Greif in 2025, highlighting the dual focus on efficiency and sustainability:

Metric	2025 Value/Target	Social/Operational Impact
Full-Year Net Sales (11-month reported)	$3.93 billion	Reflects overall demand, including e-commerce-driven packaging volumes.
FY2025 Cost Optimization Savings (Run-Rate)	$50 million	Direct action to mitigate rising labor and operational costs.
E-commerce Share of Corrugated Market End-Use	36.4%	Primary driver of demand for Greif's Sustainable Fiber Solutions.
Supplier Spend Assessed for Sustainability (FY2024 Achieved)	61%	Measure of supply chain transparency and CSR risk mitigation.
2030 Recycled Raw Material Content Target	60%	Strategic response to consumer preference for circular packaging.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Automation of production lines is necessary to offset rising labor costs and improve efficiency.

You know that in industrial packaging, labor costs are a relentless pressure point. Greif, Inc. is directly countering this with a focused Enterprise Automation Strategy, which is a key component of their broader cost optimization program. This isn't just about cutting headcount; it's about increasing output per worker and improving safety, especially in the more mature Durable Metals and Sustainable Fiber segments where growth is driven by efficiency, not volume.

The results of this technological push are already showing up in the financials. For fiscal year 2025, Greif achieved $50 million in run-rate savings from its cost optimization program, which is more than double the initial commitment of $15 million to $25 million. The company is accelerating this plan, raising the total anticipated savings commitment to $120 million by the end of fiscal year 2027. Here's the quick math: that's a significant operational tailwind, helping to offset the general industrial recession Greif navigated in 2025.

A key enabler for this is disciplined capital allocation (CapEx). Following the divestiture of its most capital-intensive businesses, Greif's maintenance CapEx needs are approximately $25 million lower, freeing up capital to invest in high-return automation projects. They are prioritizing plant modernization to implement these new automated processes.

Digitalization of the supply chain (e.g., smart packaging, IoT sensors) is a competitive advantage.

The future of packaging is connected, and Greif is making moves to ensure its supply chain is a competitive advantage, not a cost center. They are accelerating the delivery of customer service through digital technologies and experiences, notably via the Greif$^+$ digital platform. This is the company's push to connect processes, people, and data, empowering customers and colleagues with innovative digital solutions.

While the company is still in the early stages of its Business Modernization Program, the opportunity is massive. The global smart packaging market is estimated to reach over $52 billion in 2025, with IoT-enabled packaging alone being a $20.26 billion opportunity. Greif's focus on artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics, including a revised pay structure for AI-related work, shows an internal commitment to building the expertise needed to capture this value. This technology is defintely a key to better tracking and condition monitoring in transit.

The strategic focus areas include:

• Expanding the Greif$^+$ digital platform for enhanced customer experience.
• Leveraging AI and digital solutions in production for efficiency and safety.
• Implementing a Business Modernization Program to align systems with 2030 goals.

Investment in advanced recycling technologies for fiber and plastics is crucial.

Sustainability is no longer a separate initiative; it's a core technological requirement in the packaging industry. Greif is a major player in the circular economy, which is a significant technological moat. Their Recycled Materials Group (RMG) collected 3.4 million metric tons of material in 2024, and they are a net-positive recycler.

The company's 2030 sustainability targets are aggressive and require continuous technological investment:

Sustainability Target (By 2030)	Metric	Technological Implication
Recycled Raw Material Content	Achieve an average of 60% across products.	Requires advanced sorting and processing technology for both fiber and plastics.
Product Recyclability	Make 100% of products recyclable.	Requires R&D into material science, like the Greif EnviroRAP 100% recycled paperboard with a water-based coating.
Waste to Landfill	Reach Zero Waste to Landfill at 97% of production facilities.	Requires sophisticated waste management and conversion technology.

For plastics, Greif has invested in joint ventures, such as increasing its stake in Centurion Container LLC to 80% as of April 2023, to expand its intermediate bulk container (IBC) reconditioning network. This reconditioning is a key form of advanced recycling, extending the life of high-value plastic assets. Simply put, their recycling scale is a competitive advantage.

Use of predictive analytics to manage inventory and forecast volatile raw material pricing.

The industrial packaging business is highly sensitive to raw material price volatility-think steel, fiber, and polymer resins. Greif is moving past simple historical forecasting by leveraging predictive analytics, a capability supported by their focus on AI and data analytics.

The company's strategic infrastructure, including a global logistics control tower, is the operational backbone for this analytical approach. This centralizes data to provide real-time visibility, which is essential for managing inventory levels and optimizing working capital.

The tangible benefit is seen in the cost optimization results. Approximately $15 million of the fiscal 2025 savings were achieved through improvements in network design and operating efficiency, which are areas heavily influenced by advanced planning and forecasting tools. This data-driven approach to pricing and inventory was a factor in Greif's improved price/cost realization in the second quarter of 2025, which contributed to their raised full-year guidance. They are effectively using technology to take the guesswork out of a volatile market.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Enforcement of anti-trust regulations in the highly consolidated packaging industry is a constant threat.

You operate in a highly consolidated global market, so antitrust enforcement is a critical, near-term legal risk that can carry massive financial penalties. The US Department of Justice and the European Commission are actively scrutinizing mergers and pricing practices, especially in industries where a few large players dominate.

The risk is not theoretical. Greif, Inc. was named as a defendant in a class-action antitrust lawsuit filed in federal court in Illinois in July 2025. The suit alleges that containerboard manufacturers engaged in price collusion over a series of seven price increases spanning from November 2020. A successful claim could lead to the court awarding treble damages (three times the amount of actual damages), which would be a catastrophic financial hit.

Furthermore, the $1.8 billion sale of the Containerboard Business to Packaging Corporation of America, which closed in August 2025, was subject to regulatory approvals, underscoring the intense scrutiny placed on any major consolidation move in the packaging sector.

Strict international regulations on the transport of hazardous materials (HAZMAT) require compliance investment.

Greif's primary business-industrial packaging like steel drums and Intermediate Bulk Containers (IBCs)-is the backbone of HAZMAT transport, meaning compliance with regulations like the US Department of Transportation (DOT), European Agreement concerning the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road (ADR), and International Maritime Dangerous Goods (IMDG) Code is non-negotiable. The cost of maintaining this compliance is a constant drain on capital expenditures and operating expenses.

While a specific HAZMAT budget line item isn't public, the need for operational efficiency to offset compliance costs is clear. Greif is aggressively driving down costs, achieving $50 million in run-rate savings from its optimization program in fiscal 2025. This focus on efficiency is defintely tied to streamlining the complex, legally-mandated processes for testing, certifying, and tracking HAZMAT-compliant packaging across its global footprint. You simply cannot afford a compliance failure here.

New Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes shift recycling costs onto producers.

Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes are a growing legal challenge, shifting the financial and operational burden of managing post-consumer waste from municipalities to packaging producers like Greif. This is a direct cost driver in key markets like the European Union and an increasing number of US states.

Greif is already responding with quantifiable investments in its circular economy initiatives, which mitigate future EPR fees. This is a smart action. In Q3 2025, the company lobbied on US legislation like the 'S.361 STEWARD Act' and other EPR-related bills, showing a proactive effort to shape the rules. The company's operational response is significant:

• Collected 3.6 million containers through its Life Cycle Services.
• Increased the use of post-consumer resin (PCR) in its products by 37% year-over-year.

This operational data shows the company is investing in the infrastructure and material changes required to meet the legal mandates for recycled content and end-of-life management, essentially internalizing the costs that EPR schemes seek to impose.

Varying global data privacy laws (like GDPR) complicate international customer data management.

Operating in over 40 countries means Greif must navigate a fragmented and ever-changing legal landscape for data privacy, including the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and various US state laws like the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). The company's reliance on extensive computer systems for customer, vendor, and employee data makes it highly vulnerable to non-compliance fines and breaches.

The financial risk is enormous. Greif's full-year 2025 net sales were approximately $3.93 billion (for the 11-month fiscal year). A major GDPR violation could result in a fine of up to €20 million or 4% of that global annual turnover, whichever is greater. For a company of Greif's size, that 4% figure represents a maximum potential fine of nearly $157.2 million based on 2025 sales, which is a massive liability. The average cost of a breach where non-compliance was a factor was already $5.05 million in 2025, a 12.6% increase over the general cost of a data breach.

Here's the quick math on the potential exposure:

Metric	Value (Fiscal 2025)	Source/Context
Full-Year Net Sales (Approx.)	$3.93 billion	11-month fiscal year period.
Maximum GDPR Fine (% of Global Turnover)	4%	Standard legal maximum for severe violations.
Maximum Potential Fine (4% of Sales)	~$157.2 million	A top-end, worst-case scenario fine.
Average Cost of Non-Compliance Breach	$5.05 million	Industry average cost for a breach where regulatory non-compliance was a factor.

This mandates a continuous, high-level investment in data governance and cybersecurity controls, not just in IT, but in legal and training across all global business units.

Greif, Inc. (GEF) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Goal to reduce Scope 1 and 2 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 requires significant capital expenditure.

You need a clear picture of the capital commitment behind Greif, Inc.'s climate goals. The company has set an ambitious, science-aligned target: to reduce absolute Scope 1 (direct) and Scope 2 (indirect from purchased energy) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 28 percent by 2030, using a 2019 baseline. This isn't cheap; it requires substantial, ongoing investment in new technology and energy sourcing.

To meet this, Greif is prioritizing energy efficiency projects and renewable energy procurement. In 2024, the company invested $5 million in sustainability projects. A major step in 2025 was the commencement of a 12-year Virtual Power Purchase Agreement (VPPA) for 100 GWh of renewable energy annually in Europe. This single initiative is expected to offset approximately 65 percent of Greif's Scope 2 emissions in Europe and about 3 percent of its total global Scope 1 and 2 emissions. Here's the quick math on the impact of their energy strategy:

Metric	Target / Status	Baseline / Context
2030 GHG Reduction Goal (Scope 1 & 2)	28% absolute reduction	2019 Baseline
2025 European Scope 2 Offset (VPPA)	Approx. 65%	European electricity consumption
2024 Renewable Energy Share	16% (892 MWh)	Total energy consumption
2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance	At least $725 million	Provides financial capacity for CapEx

What this estimate hides is the long-term capital expenditure (CapEx) required for the remaining 25 percent reduction. The company must continue to integrate green technology into its global operations, which will be a persistent drag on free cash flow in the near term, even as their 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance was raised to at least $725 million.

Water usage restrictions in drought-prone areas affect mill operations.

Water is a defintely critical resource, especially since Greif's paperboard mills account for roughly 90 percent of its global water usage. Operating in areas subject to water stress or drought, particularly in the US, means regulatory pressure and operational risk are high. The company's response is a focus on efficiency and discharge quality.

The key 2025 goal is a reduction in Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD)-a measure of water pollution-discharged from the Riverville and Massillon mills by 10 percent per metric ton of production, compared to a 2014 baseline. This is a direct response to regulatory and community concerns about water quality.

The conservation efforts are already showing results, which helps mitigate the risk of operational restrictions:

• Total water withdrawal declined by 10 percent since 2019.
• Water consumption rate per metric ton of production decreased by 46 percent in 2024 compared to the 2019 baseline.
• The company is evaluating three specific projects for implementation (2023-2025) to further reduce water use at its mills.

This aggressive reduction in water intensity is a necessary defense against future drought-related restrictions that could force production cuts at key US facilities.

Increased pressure from investors and NGOs to use 100% recycled or sustainably sourced materials.

Investor and NGO pressure for a circular economy model is intense, and Greif is responding with clear, measurable targets that affect product design and sourcing. The market is demanding packaging that can prove its low environmental impact.

Greif's long-term circularity goals are to make 100 percent of its products recyclable by 2030 and to achieve an average of 60 percent recycled raw material content across all products by 2030. They are already ahead in their fiber-based business, which is a major competitive advantage.

Here is the current status of their material sourcing and circularity efforts, demonstrating a strong position as of the 2025 fiscal year:

• The Paper Packaging Services segment is sourced from 100 percent recycled content.
• In 2024, 71 percent of all fiber products manufactured were sourced from recycled materials.
• Use of post-consumer resin (PCR) in plastic products increased by 37% year-over-year in 2024.
• The Life Cycle Services network reconditioned and sold more than 1.2 million steel drums in 2024.

This focus on recycled content, especially the 100 percent recycled content in the Paper Packaging Services segment, is a strong selling point for customers who have their own Scope 3 (value chain) emissions targets.

Waste-to-energy initiatives help offset energy costs but face regulatory hurdles.

Greif views waste not just as a cost, but as a potential energy source and a key part of its circularity strategy. The 2025 Goal is to divert 90 percent of waste from landfills globally from all legacy production facilities. This is a crucial step toward its 2030 goal of reaching zero waste-to-landfill (ZWTL) at 97 percent of its production facilities.

The waste diversion strategy explicitly includes incineration with energy recovery, a form of waste-to-energy. This helps offset energy costs, and the company is making significant progress in waste diversion:

• In 2024, Greif diverted 87% of waste from landfill.
• 60 production facilities achieved zero waste-to-landfill (ZWTL) status in 2024.
• Energy efficiency projects at the LATAM Tigre location completed as of November 2023 resulted in an energy cost savings of $29,300 per year.

The primary hurdle here is regulatory complexity. While waste-to-energy is an option, it often faces strict air quality and permitting regulations, especially in the US and Europe, which can slow down new project implementation and increase compliance costs. Still, the overall waste reduction and ZWTL progress are strong indicators of operational efficiency.

Finance: Track the CapEx spend rate against the 28% GHG reduction target quarterly.