Sasol Limited (SSL): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en enero de 2025]

En el panorama dinámico de la energía global, Sasol Limited se encuentra en una encrucijada crítica, navegando por desafíos complejos y oportunidades transformadoras que abarcan dominios políticos, económicos, tecnológicos y ambientales. Como una empresa pionera de energía y químicos sudafricanos, Sasol se está reposicionando estratégicamente en medio de las interrupciones de la industria sin precedentes, equilibrando las operaciones tradicionales de combustibles fósiles con ambiciosas inversiones de tecnología sostenible. Este análisis integral de la mano presenta los factores externos multifacéticos que configuran la trayectoria estratégica de Sasol, que ofrece una exploración perspicaz de las intrincadas fuerzas que impulsan su evolución operativa y su resistencia futura en un mercado global cada vez más competitivo y ambientalmente consciente.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

Compromiso del gobierno sudafricano con las políticas de transición energética y descarbonización

El Plan Integrado de Recursos de Sudáfrica (IRP) 2019 se dirige al 25% de energía renovable para 2030. El gobierno se ha comprometido a reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en un 28% para 2030.

Métrico de política	Año objetivo	Meta específica
Porcentaje de energía renovable	2030	25%
Reducción de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero	2030	28%

Presiones regulatorias continuas para la reducción de las emisiones de carbono en el sector energético

El impuesto al carbono en Sudáfrica se establece actualmente en R144 por tonelada de CO2 equivalente, con aumentos incrementales planificados.

• Tasa impositiva de carbono: R144/TON CO2 equivalente
• Informes de emisiones obligatorias para grandes emisores
• Aumento de los requisitos de cumplimiento regulatorio

Impactos potenciales de la inestabilidad política y los cambios de política en las regiones ricas en recursos

El índice de riesgo político para Sudáfrica en 2023 fue de 58.6, lo que indica una volatilidad política moderada.

Indicador de riesgo político	Valor 2023
Índice de riesgo político	58.6
Puntaje de efectividad de gobernanza	-0.52

Regulaciones complejas de relaciones laborales y empoderamiento en la industria energética sudafricana

El cuadro de puntuación de empoderamiento económico negro de base amplia (B-BBEE) requiere objetivos específicos de transformación de propiedad y gestión.

• Requisito de propiedad negra: mínimo 25% + 1 participación
• Objetivo de control de gestión: 50% de representación negra
• Gasto de desarrollo de habilidades: 3% de la nómina

Métricas clave de cumplimiento para el empleo del sector energético: - Representación de gestión negra: 43.2% - Personal técnico negro: 52.7% - Gasto de transformación de la fuerza laboral: R1.2 mil millones anualmente

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

Volátiles de precios globales de petróleo y gas que afectan los flujos de ingresos de la compañía

Los ingresos de Sasol directamente vinculados a los precios mundiales de petróleo y gas, con Brent Crude Oil Price con un promedio de $ 81.50 por barril en 2023. Los ingresos anuales de la compañía para el año fiscal 2023 alcanzaron ZAR 488.3 mil millones, con fluctuaciones significativas basadas en la dinámica internacional del mercado energético.

Año	Ingresos (Zar Billion)	Impacto en el precio del petróleo
2022	534.2	$ 94.20/barril
2023	488.3	$ 81.50/barril

Inversión significativa en tecnologías de energía renovable e hidrógeno

Sasol comprometió a Zar 12.5 mil millones hacia proyectos de hidrógeno y energía renovable verdes en 2023. Inversión planificada de Zar 45 mil millones para 2030 en estrategias de transición baja en carbono.

Categoría de inversión	Cantidad (Zar mil millones)	Periodo de tiempo
Hidrógeno verde	7.5	2023-2025
Energía renovable	5.0	2023-2025

Desafíos económicos en el mercado sudafricano con altas tasas de desempleo

La tasa de desempleo de Sudáfrica en 32.9% en el tercer trimestre de 2023, impactando directamente la fuerza laboral nacional y las estrategias operativas de Sasol. La compañía emplea a aproximadamente 31,000 empleados, con un 85% ubicado en Sudáfrica.

Fluctuaciones monetarias que afectan las operaciones internacionales

South African Rand (ZAR) experimentó un 12,4% de depreciación contra el dólar estadounidense en 2023. Operaciones internacionales afectadas por la volatilidad monetaria, con aproximadamente el 40% de los ingresos generados por los mercados internacionales.

Metría métrica	Valor 2023	Impacto
Tipo de cambio de ZAR/USD	18.65	12,4% de depreciación
Ingresos internacionales	40%	Exposición significativa

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

Creciente demanda pública de soluciones de energía sostenibles y ambientalmente responsables

A partir de 2024, Sasol ha cometido una reducción del 40% en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para 2030. Las encuestas de sostenibilidad pública indican que el 68% de las partes interesadas priorizan la responsabilidad ambiental corporativa. La inversión de energía renovable alcanzó ZAR 12.3 mil millones en 2023.

Métrica de sostenibilidad	Valor 2023	Objetivo 2024
Reducción de emisiones de carbono	22%	40%
Inversión de energía verde	Zar 12.3 mil millones	Zar 15.7 mil millones
Preferencia ambiental de las partes interesadas	68%	75%

Cambios demográficos de la fuerza laboral que requieren desarrollo de habilidades y transformación

La composición de la fuerza laboral de Sasol en 2024: 62% de empleados negros, 38% de otros datos demográficos. Inversión en desarrollo de habilidades: Zar 487 millones anuales. Horas de capacitación de empleados: 42 horas por empleado por año.

Métrica de diversidad de la fuerza laboral	2024 porcentaje
Empleados negros	62%
Otros datos demográficos	38%
Inversión en desarrollo de habilidades	Zar 487 millones
Horas de capacitación anuales por empleado	42 horas

Expectativas de la comunidad para el desarrollo económico local y la creación de empleo

Creación de empleo local de Sasol en 2024: 3,742 trabajos directos, 15,680 empleos indirectos. Inversión comunitaria: Zar 226 millones en programas de desarrollo local.

Impacto laboral	Número 2024
Trabajos directos creados	3,742
Empleos indirectos apoyados	15,680
Inversión comunitaria	Zar 226 millones

Aumento de la presión social para la gobernanza ambiental y social transparente

Cumplimiento de informes de ESG: 98% de transparencia. Inversión de gobernanza social: Zar 342 millones. Puntuación de auditoría de sostenibilidad externa: 4.7/5.

Métrico de gobierno	Valor 2024
Clasificación de transparencia de ESG	98%
Inversión de gobierno social	Zar 342 millones
Puntuación de auditoría de sostenibilidad externa	4.7/5

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Inversiones sustanciales en tecnologías de captura y conversión de carbono

Sasol cometió ZAR 1.2 mil millones (aproximadamente $ 64 millones) a las tecnologías de captura y almacenamiento de carbono en 2023. La inversión de captura de carbono de la compañía se dirige a 2,3 millones de toneladas de reducción de CO2 anualmente para 2030.

Inversión tecnológica	Cantidad (Zar)	Objetivo de reducción de CO2
Tecnologías de captura de carbono	1.200 millones	2.3 millones de toneladas/año

Capacidades avanzadas de combustibles sintéticos y procesamiento químico

La tecnología Fischer-Tropsch de Sasol permite la producción de 160,000 barriles de combustible sintético por día. El gasto de I + D para la innovación de procesamiento químico alcanzó ZAR 750 millones en 2023.

Tecnología	Capacidad de producción	Inversión de I + D
Producción de combustible sintético	160,000 barriles/día	Zar 750 millones

Transformación digital de procesos operativos e integración de inteligencia artificial

Sasol invirtió Zar 500 millones en iniciativas de transformación digital. La implementación de IA en todas las operaciones ha mejorado la eficiencia operativa en un 22% en 2023.

Inversión digital	Mejora de la eficiencia	Áreas de integración de IA
Zar 500 millones	22%	Optimización de procesos, mantenimiento predictivo

Investigación sobre hidrógeno verde y métodos de producción de energía alternativa

Sasol asignó ZAR 900 millones para la investigación de hidrógeno verde. La capacidad actual de producción de hidrógeno verde es de 3.000 toneladas por año con planes de expandirse a 10,000 toneladas para 2026.

Enfoque de investigación	Inversión	Producción actual	Objetivo de producción futuro
Hidrógeno verde	Zar 900 millones	3.000 toneladas/año	10,000 toneladas/año (2026)

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Cumplimiento de estrictas regulaciones ambientales en múltiples jurisdicciones

Sasol enfrenta requisitos de cumplimiento ambiental complejos en múltiples jurisdicciones:

Jurisdicción	Regulación ambiental clave	Costo de cumplimiento (2023)
Sudáfrica	Ley Nacional de Gestión Ambiental	Zar 1.200 millones
Estados Unidos	Acto de aire limpio	USD 87 millones
unión Europea	Directiva de emisiones industriales	65 millones de euros

Requisitos complejos de licencias de comercio internacional y exportación

Sasol navega por marcos de licencia de exportación intrincados:

Destino de exportación	Volumen de exportación (2023)	Costo de cumplimiento de licencias
Porcelana	2.3 millones de toneladas	Zar 45 millones
Alemania	1.7 millones de toneladas	Zar 38 millones
Estados Unidos	1.5 millones de toneladas	Zar 42 millones

Desafíos legales continuos relacionados con el impacto ambiental y las emisiones

Detalles de la disputa legal:

• Pendiendo valor de la demanda ambiental: Zar 750 millones
• Número de casos de litigio ambiental activo: 7
• Penalización potencial de emisiones de carbono: Zar 220 millones

Navegación de la legislación de empoderamiento económico negro de base amplia (B-BBEE)

Elemento b-bbee	Porcentaje de cumplimiento	Monto de la inversión
Propiedad	25.1%	Zar 1.500 millones
Control de gestión	40.2%	Zar 380 millones
Desarrollo de habilidades	5.8%	Zar 275 millones

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Compromiso para reducir la huella de carbono y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero

Sasol Limited tiene como objetivo reducir el alcance 1 y 2 emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en un 30% para 2030 de una línea de base de 2017. Las emisiones totales de gases de efecto invernadero de la compañía en 2022 fueron 62.4 millones de toneladas de CO2 equivalente.

Tipo de emisión	2022 emisiones (millones de toneladas CO2E)	Objetivo de reducción
Alcance 1 emisiones	52.3	Reducción del 30% para 2030
Alcance 2 emisiones	10.1	Reducción del 30% para 2030

Desarrollo de estrategias de transición de energía sostenible

Sasol ha cometido Zar 50 mil millones (aproximadamente USD 2.7 mil millones) hacia inversiones de transición baja en carbono entre 2021 y 2030.

Componente de estrategia	Monto de la inversión	Línea de tiempo
Transición baja en carbono	Zar 50 mil millones	2021-2030

Inversión en energía renovable y tecnologías bajas en carbono

Sasol ha iniciado varios proyectos de energía renovable, incluida una planta solar fotovoltaica solar de 140 MW en sus operaciones de Secunda, que se espera que genere 360,000 MWh de electricidad renovable anualmente.

Proyecto de energía renovable	Capacidad	Generación de electricidad anual
Secunda Solar PV Planta	140 MW	360,000 MWh

Implementación de principios de economía circular en procesos industriales

Sasol ha implementado iniciativas de reciclaje de agua, logrando una tasa de reciclaje de agua del 41% en 2022, con un objetivo para aumentar esto al 50% para 2030.

Métrica de gestión del agua	Rendimiento 2022	Objetivo 2030
Tasa de reciclaje de agua	41%	50%

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Significant pressure to address high local unemployment through job creation.

Sasol Limited operates in a South African context where high youth unemployment (ages 15-34) remains a severe systemic challenge, demanding collaborative action from large corporations. The company is a massive economic anchor in its fenceline communities; for instance, in the Govan Mbeki local municipality, Sasol South Africa (SSA) operations support an estimated 55.0% of employment, and in Metsimaholo, this figure is almost 75%. This concentration of economic reliance places immense pressure on Sasol to maintain and grow its workforce, especially as it transitions its business model.

To mitigate this, Sasol has an integrated approach focusing on skills development, workplace experience, and small business development. In the past year, Sasol was recognised as one of South Africa's top ten largest investors in corporate social responsibility (CSI) and impact, allocating 2% of its net profit after tax to social impact initiatives. The new two-year Graduate Internship Programme, targeting youth in operational and fenceline communities, saw its first cohort of graduates begin internships in July 2025. That's a clear, actionable step.

Here's the quick math on the scale of Sasol's employment impact (based on 2023 data, which frames the 2025 context):

Economic Impact Metric	Value (Sasol South Africa)	Context
Total Jobs Supported (Direct, Indirect, Induced)	452,683 jobs	Across the South African economy.
Employment Supported in Govan Mbeki Municipality	55.0%	Percentage of total employment in the municipality.
Employment Supported in Metsimaholo Municipality	Almost 75%	Percentage of total employment in the municipality.
Permanent Employees (FY24 data)	28,630	The core workforce number.

Focus on just transition principles for communities affected by decarbonization.

Sasol's decarbonization pathway, which includes reducing coal feedstock by 25% by 2030, will defintely have negative socio-economic consequences for its workforce, communities, and suppliers. The company is committed to a 'just transition' (a framework ensuring the shift to a low-carbon economy is fair and inclusive), aligning with South Africa's Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) Just Transition Framework.

The company established a Just Transition Office (JTO) to coordinate its socio-economic activities, which is currently focused on the framework development phase. What this estimate hides is the sheer difficulty of replacing coal-related jobs with 'green economy' opportunities at the required scale and speed. The transition risk is not just environmental, but a massive social stability risk in their core operating areas.

Key focus areas for the Just Transition Office include:

• Developing skills for work and entrepreneurship.
• Scaling the Bridge to Work programme for youth employability.
• Investing in research for future green economy skills.
• Co-creating opportunities with key stakeholders.

Maintaining a strong social license to operate amid environmental concerns is critical.

The company's social license to operate is intrinsically linked to its environmental performance, particularly concerning its high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the risk of litigation related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. Sasol acknowledges an increased risk of challenges to its environmental licenses, which could adversely impact the resilience of its operations.

The company's immense contribution to local services often fills the gap left by struggling municipal services, which helps maintain community support. A 2024 community survey in Sasolburg and Secunda found that over 70% of residents believe their lives would be worse off without Sasol's interventions, highlighting their vital role in community stability. Sasol's combined Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for FY2025 stood at an estimated 94,937,694 tCO2e, demonstrating the scale of the environmental challenge that constantly tests its social acceptance.

Labor relations and wage negotiations in South Africa pose ongoing operational risks.

Labor stability is a persistent operational risk, especially given the complex relationship with major trade unions like the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU). Recent industrial action underscores this volatility. In March 2025, AMCU members embarked on a strike over a dispute concerning the implementation of a 4-shift work system and the remuneration rates for Sunday work at one of the plants.

This dispute, which involved a strike notice issued in February 2025 and subsequent industrial action, highlights that even non-wage, operational changes can quickly escalate into significant disruptions. Sasol's policy encourages its suppliers and contractors to pay market-related and competitive rates to mitigate industrial action and maintain site-wide labor harmony. The company must manage a delicate balance between operational optimization (like the shift system change) and the expectations of its collective bargaining units. Sasol's cash fixed cost increases were contained below inflation in the 2025 fiscal year, which is great for the balance sheet, but it adds pressure to future wage negotiations.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Major investment in green hydrogen and Power-to-X technologies for future fuel mix.

Sasol is making a calculated, but not reckless, push into green hydrogen and Power-to-X (PtX) technologies, which turn renewable electricity into synthetic fuels and chemicals. To be fair, the company is not rushing to be the first mover, as CEO Simon Baloyi noted in January 2025, citing the high cost and risk of new technology. Still, the long-term strategic direction is clear: a shift toward lower-carbon feedstocks. The company has already concluded a final investment decision to produce green hydrogen at its Sasolburg facilities.

A key enabler for this shift is a massive ramp-up in renewable energy capacity. The company has increased its renewable energy target to more than 2 GW (Gigawatts), up from a previous 1.2 GW goal. As of August 2025, Sasol had secured approximately 920 MW of this capacity through a mix of Power Purchase Agreements and self-build projects. This is a defintely necessary step to power future PtX assets, like the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects being pursued in partnership with others.

• Secured 920 MW of renewable energy capacity as of August 2025.
• Targeting >2 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
• Exploring the massive Boegoebaai green hydrogen hub project.

Need to continuously upgrade and maintain aging Secunda Synfuels complex infrastructure.

The technological challenge at the Secunda Synfuels complex, the world's largest single-site emitter, is not just about new tech, but about maintaining and optimizing the current infrastructure. The core problem impacting production in the 2025 fiscal year was the deteriorating quality of the coal feedstock, which reduced gasifier availability and yield. This poor coal quality has led to damaged equipment and longer downtimes.

Sasol is addressing this with a low-risk, cost-effective technological solution: a destoning project at the Twistdraai Export Plant, which is being repurposed. This project, costing less than R1 billion, is expected to be in beneficial operation in the first half of the 2026 financial year (H1 FY26). This, combined with other maintenance interventions, is projected to help ramp up Secunda Operations production to more than 7.4 million tons by FY2028. Separately, a significant upgrade of two 9E gas turbines at the Secunda power facility was completed in May 2025, reducing Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 75% and cutting CO₂ emissions by approximately 10,000 metric tonnes per turbine each year. That's smart maintenance.

Advancements in carbon capture and storage (CCS) are crucial for decarbonization targets.

Advancements in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology are crucial in theory for a coal-heavy company, but Sasol's revised strategy shows a diminished near-term reliance on it. The company's Optimised Emissions Reduction Roadmap (ERR) still commits to a 30% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 (off a 2017 baseline). However, the total capital expenditure (capex) budget for emission reduction projects over the coming five years has been drastically cut by 70%, now standing at between R4 billion and R7 billion.

This revised plan relies less on large-scale, unproven CCS and more on renewable energy, operational efficiencies, and market-based mechanisms (carbon offsets). Critics like Just Share have raised concerns about the lack of detailed CCS plans in this new roadmap. The financial pressure from carbon pricing is real, though; Sasol's net 2025 carbon tax payment for 2024 emissions was R1.7 billion after offsets and electricity levies.

Metric	Previous ERR Capex (R billion)	Optimised ERR Capex (R billion) - 2025-2030	Change
Emission Reduction Capex	15 - 25	4 - 7	~70% reduction
2030 GHG Reduction Target (Scope 1 & 2)	30%	30%	No change
FY2025 Net Carbon Tax Payment (for 2024 emissions)	N/A	R1.7 billion	Actual cost pressure

Leveraging digitalization and AI to optimize complex production processes.

Digitalization is a quiet but critical technological factor for Sasol, focused on optimizing their incredibly complex, integrated value chain. They are moving forward with a modern Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) program, successfully completing the SAP S4/Hana pilot go-live in Italy in April 2025, marking the first implementation in International Chemicals. This is the foundation for better data-driven decision-making across the global business.

Beyond ERP, the company is actively exploring the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to drive value. A dedicated innovation team has been developing a significant number of generative AI use cases-between 10 and 30-to automate and optimize processes. This is where the real efficiency gains will come from, especially in a business with such high operational complexity. They are using advanced models like GPT4 with semantic search to automate tasks, which is how you get ahead of the curve in a commodity business.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Compliance with stringent air quality standards and emissions limits in South Africa

You are watching a high-stakes legal battle play out in real-time, one that directly impacts Sasol's license to operate its core assets. The biggest legal risk for the company right now centers on its compliance with South Africa's Minimum Emission Standards (MES) for its Secunda operations, which is the world's largest single-site source of industrial point-source greenhouse gas emissions. The critical compliance deadline for the stricter 2020 MES was March 31, 2025.

Sasol has been actively seeking regulatory relief, arguing that the cost and technical difficulty of retrofitting its existing coal-fired boilers, particularly for sulfur dioxide ($\text{SO}_2$) abatement, is too high. The company successfully appealed a decision by the National Air Quality Officer (NAQO), securing a crucial, albeit controversial, alternative limit from the Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment. This decision, granted in April 2024, permits Sasol to use a load-based limit for $\text{SO}_2$ emissions at its 17 Secunda coal-fired boilers.

Here's the quick math on the regulatory compromise:

• Legislated MES (Concentration-based): $1000 \text{ mg/Nm}^3$ for $\text{SO}_2$.
• Minister-Granted Limit (Load-based): 503 tonnes of $\text{SO}_2$ per day.
• Duration of Alternative Limit: April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2030.

What this estimate hides is the condition that this alternative $\text{SO}_2$ limit will be withdrawn if Sasol fails to comply with the MES for other pollutants, specifically particulate matter (PM) and oxides of nitrogen ($\text{NO}_x$), by the March 31, 2025 deadline. The company has already committed significant capital, spending over R7 billion in the past year (as of July 2023) on curbing emissions at its Secunda, Sasolburg, and Natref plants, but the $\text{SO}_2$ challenge remains the central legal and financial threat.

Navigating international trade laws and sanctions affecting global chemical sales

Operating a global chemicals business means constantly navigating a complex and shifting web of international trade laws, export controls, and sanctions. For a company with significant international chemicals sales, especially in the US and Eurasia, this is a non-negotiable compliance area.

The legal and geopolitical environment directly impacted Sasol's Fiscal Year 2025 outlook. For instance, the uncertainty surrounding ongoing global tariff disputes, including US government changes to import tariffs announced in April 2025, forced a revision in guidance. The company's full-year outlook for International Chemicals sales volumes was revised to the lower end of the previous guidance, indicating a potential 4-8% decrease compared to FY24.

Sasol's Code of Conduct explicitly requires adherence to:

• Trade controls and international sanctions laws.
• Anti-bribery and anti-corruption laws.
• Competition (antitrust) laws.

The company maintains policies to ensure that its transactions, including those with suppliers, comply with sanctions imposed by authorities like the United Nations, European Union, and the US Government. You have to be defintely vigilant here; one misstep on a sanctioned entity can trigger massive fines and reputational damage from US regulators.

Adherence to evolving corporate governance and anti-corruption legislation

As a dual-listed entity on both the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Sasol is subject to two distinct, stringent regulatory regimes. This dual listing is a major driver of its corporate governance structure, forcing it to comply with both the South African Companies Act and the US Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX).

The Board confirmed its satisfaction that it fulfilled all its duties and obligations in the 2025 financial year, which is a critical statement for investors. The focus on anti-corruption is perpetual, particularly in jurisdictions where Sasol operates, such as Mozambique and South Africa, which have historically presented higher corruption risks. The company's governance framework prioritizes key legal compliance risk areas:

Regulatory Requirement	Jurisdiction	FY2025 Compliance Focus
South African Companies Act	South Africa (JSE)	Director duties, financial reporting, shareholder rights.
Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX)	United States (NYSE)	Internal financial controls and reporting accuracy.
Anti-Bribery and Anti-Corruption Laws	Global	Due diligence on third parties, whistle-blower protection.

The robust framework is there, but the real test is consistent enforcement of its Code of Conduct across all global subsidiaries, which is where most anti-corruption breaches occur.

Complex permitting and licensing for new energy projects, like gas exploration

The legal and regulatory environment for new energy projects, especially cross-border gas exploration and production, is notoriously complex. Sasol's strategic focus on natural gas, particularly in Mozambique, is heavily dependent on securing and maintaining long-term licenses and production agreements.

The company's key development is the Mozambique Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) project, which focuses on the Inhassoro, Temane, and Pande gas fields. This project, with a committed investment of approximately \$1 billion, was targeted to be activated by September 2025. The purpose is two-fold: to supply gas to the 450-megawatt Central Térmica de Temane (CTT) power plant in Mozambique and to export the balance to South Africa via the existing ROMPCO pipeline.

The permitting challenge is amplified by the trans-boundary nature of the project and the need to manage the decline of the mature Pande and Temane fields. Beginning mid-2026, Sasol is projected to reduce gas exports to South Africa as it redirects volumes to downstream Mozambique facilities, which creates a legal and contractual supply gap risk for its South African industrial customers. At full capacity, the PSA fields are expected to yield 53 million megajoules of natural gas annually and 4,000 barrels of light oil per day, but hitting these production targets hinges on flawless execution of the permitting and licensing schedule.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Sasol targets a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, requiring massive capital outlay.

You're watching Sasol's decarbonization strategy closely, and the big takeaway from their May 2025 Capital Markets Day is a pivot: the 30% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 (off a 2017 baseline) is still their firm target, but the capital required has been drastically cut. They've announced a dramatic 70% reduction in the associated capital expenditure (CapEx) budget.

The original plan called for a massive outlay of between R15 billion and R25 billion in aggregate transformation capital up to 2030. The revised roadmap, however, now projects an investment of only between R4 billion and R7 billion on emission-reduction projects over the coming five years. This is a huge shift, achieved primarily by abandoning capital-intensive solutions like coal fines briquetting and repurposing assets, such as converting the Twistdraai export coal plant into a 10-million-ton-a-year destoning operation to improve coal quality at Secunda Operations.

The revised strategy leans heavily on renewable energy procurement, increasing the target from 1.2 GW to 2 GW, with 575 MW already secured through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). That's a smart move to cut costs. Here's the quick math on the CapEx change:

Metric	Original 2030 Roadmap (2021)	Revised 2030 Roadmap (May 2025)
GHG Reduction Target	30% (Scope 1 & 2)	30% (Scope 1 & 2)
Aggregate CapEx (to 2030)	R15 billion - R25 billion	R4 billion - R7 billion
Renewable Energy Target	1.2 GW	2 GW
CapEx Reduction	-	~70% cut

The increasing cost of the South African carbon tax directly hits the bottom line.

The South African carbon tax has been a major financial risk, but recent legislative changes have provided significant near-term relief. The National Treasury's March 2025 Budget Review confirmed a crucial concession: the 60% basic tax-free allowance will be retained until at least the end of 2030. This retention, instead of the previously proposed step-down starting in 2026, offers Sasol greater investment certainty and a slower ramp-up of costs.

Still, the tax is a real cost. Sasol's carbon tax bill was recently reported at approximately R1.8 billion, which is relatively small for a company that emits around 64,000 kilotons of CO2 annually. To manage this liability, the company is increasingly relying on carbon credits. For the fiscal year ended June 2025, Sasol's carbon credit purchases surged to R723 million, a 25% increase year-on-year. This flexibility is key, but it defintely delays the deep, structural decarbonization needed.

Water scarcity and management are critical issues for its large-scale operations.

Water is a critical, high-risk factor, especially since 88% of Sasol's total water use is concentrated in its South African operations, which are located in water-stressed regions like the Upper Vaal Catchment. Sasolburg Operations (SO) has a specific, measurable target for the 2025 fiscal year.

Their focus is on reducing fresh-water dependence by maximizing re-use and effluent use. This is a must-do in a country facing a major water crisis.

• Reduce fresh-water usage at Sasolburg by 7.5% by the end of 2025 (FY21 baseline).
• The maximum target consumption for Sasolburg is 50 ML/day.
• The average water intensity for Sasolburg in FY24 was 11.72 $m^3/t$ (cubic meters of water per ton of total production), which was above the FY25 target, showing a challenge in meeting efficiency goals due to increased steam demands.

Pressure from investors to divest from high-carbon assets and accelerate the energy transition.

Investors want a clearer, faster path away from high-carbon assets, and they want to see capital discipline. Sasol is responding through a dual strategy: optimizing its existing high-carbon base while selectively divesting non-core, carbon-intensive assets.

The company's 2025 strategy update was a conscious effort to balance investor demands for a 'just transition' with the financial reality of its coal-to-liquids (CTL) assets. They are increasing coal output at Secunda to over 7.4 million tonnes to improve plant stability and profitability, which is a near-term counter-intuitive move but one that improves cash flow for long-term transition funding.

To show commitment to portfolio simplification and margin improvement, which is a form of 'soft' divestment pressure response, Sasol has been actively optimizing its International Chemicals portfolio:

• Exited the US Phenolics business in March 2025.
• Completed clean-up activities for the Alkylphenol plant in Marl, Germany, and the Guerbet plant in Lake Charles, US.
• Stopped production at the Phenolics plants in Texas, US, and the HF LAB plant in Augusta, Italy, in Q1 FY26 (ending September 2025).

These actions cut complexity and capital risk, which is what the market is defintely demanding.