Sasol Limited (SSL): Análise de Pestle [Jan-2025 Atualizado]

No cenário dinâmico da energia global, a Sasol Limited fica em uma encruzilhada crítica, navegando em desafios complexos e oportunidades transformadoras que abrangem domínios políticos, econômicos, tecnológicos e ambientais. Como uma empresa pioneira em energia sul -africana e química, a Sasol está estrategicamente se reposicionando em meio a interrupções sem precedentes da indústria, equilibrando as operações tradicionais de combustível fóssil com investimentos ambiciosos de tecnologia sustentável. Essa análise abrangente de pestles revela os fatores externos multifacetados que moldam a trajetória estratégica da Sasol, oferecendo uma exploração perspicaz das forças complexas que impulsionam sua evolução operacional e resiliência futura em um mercado global cada vez mais competitivo e ambientalmente consciente.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Políticos

O compromisso do governo sul -africano com políticas de transição e descarbonização energética

O Plano de Recursos Integrados da África do Sul (IRP) 2019 tem como alvo 25% de energia renovável até 2030. O governo se comprometeu a reduzir as emissões de gases de efeito estufa em 28% até 2030.

Métrica de Política	Ano -alvo	Objetivo específico
Porcentagem de energia renovável	2030	25%
Redução de emissão de gases de efeito estufa	2030	28%

Pressões regulatórias em andamento para emissões de carbono reduzidas no setor de energia

Atualmente, o imposto sobre o carbono na África do Sul está em R144 por tonelada de CO2 equivalente, com aumentos incrementais planejados.

• Taxa de imposto sobre carbono: R144/TON CO2 equivalente
• Relatórios obrigatórios de emissões para grandes emissores
• Aumentando os requisitos de conformidade regulatória

Impactos potenciais da instabilidade política e mudanças políticas nas regiões ricas em recursos

O índice de risco político para a África do Sul em 2023 foi de 58,6, indicando volatilidade política moderada.

Indicador de risco político	2023 valor
Índice de Risco Político	58.6
Pontuação de eficácia da governança	-0.52

Relações trabalhistas complexas e regulamentos de empoderamento na indústria de energia sul -africana

O scorecard de empoderamento econômico negro de base ampla (BBEE) requer metas específicas de transformação de propriedade e gerenciamento.

• Requisito de propriedade negra: mínimo 25% + 1 ação
• Alvo de controle de gerenciamento: representação de 50% de negro
• Gastos de desenvolvimento de habilidades: 3% da folha de pagamento

Métricas -chave de conformidade para emprego no setor de energia: - Representação de gerenciamento negro: 43,2% - Black Technical Staff: 52,7% - Gastos da transformação da força de trabalho: R1,2 bilhões anualmente

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Econômicos

Preços voláteis globais de petróleo e gás que afetam os fluxos de receita da empresa

A receita da Sasol ligada diretamente aos preços globais de petróleo e gás, com o preço do petróleo Brent, com média de US $ 81,50 por barril em 2023. A receita anual da empresa para o ano fiscal de 2023 atingiu o ZAR 488,3 bilhões, com flutuações significativas baseadas em dinâmicas do mercado de energia internacional.

Ano	Receita (zar bilhão)	Impacto do preço do petróleo
2022	534.2	US $ 94,20/barril
2023	488.3	$ 81,50/barril

Investimento significativo em tecnologias de energia renovável e de hidrogênio

Sasol cometeu Zar 12,5 bilhões em relação aos projetos de hidrogênio verde e energia renovável em 2023. Investimento planejado de Zar 45 bilhões até 2030 em estratégias de transição de baixo carbono.

Categoria de investimento	Valor (zar bilhão)	Tempo de tempo
Hidrogênio verde	7.5	2023-2025
Energia renovável	5.0	2023-2025

Desafios econômicos no mercado sul -africano com altas taxas de desemprego

A taxa de desemprego da África do Sul em 32,9% no terceiro trimestre de 2023, impactando diretamente as estratégias de trabalho e as estratégias operacionais domésticas da Sasol. A empresa emprega aproximadamente 31.000 funcionários, com 85% localizados na África do Sul.

Flutuações de moeda que afetam operações internacionais

O rand sul -africano (ZAR) experimentou 12,4% de depreciação em relação ao dólar americano em 2023. Operações internacionais impactadas pela volatilidade da moeda, com aproximadamente 40% da receita gerada a partir de mercados internacionais.

Métrica de moeda	2023 valor	Impacto
Taxa de câmbio ZAR/USD	18.65	12,4% depreciação
Receita internacional	40%	Exposição significativa

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores sociais

Crescente demanda pública por soluções de energia sustentável e ambientalmente responsável

A partir de 2024, a Sasol cometeu redução de 40% nas emissões de gases de efeito estufa até 2030. Pesquisas de sustentabilidade pública indicam 68% das partes interessadas priorizam a responsabilidade ambiental corporativa. O investimento energético renovável atingiu o ZAR 12,3 bilhões em 2023.

Métrica de sustentabilidade	2023 valor	2024 Target
Redução de emissões de carbono	22%	40%
Investimento em energia verde	ZAR 12,3 bilhões	Zar 15,7 bilhões
Preferência ambiental das partes interessadas	68%	75%

Mudanças demográficas da força de trabalho que exigem desenvolvimento de habilidades e transformação

A composição da força de trabalho da Sasol em 2024: 62% dos funcionários negros, 38% de outras demografias. Investimento de desenvolvimento de habilidades: Zar 487 milhões anualmente. Horário de treinamento dos funcionários: 42 horas por funcionário por ano.

Métrica de diversidade da força de trabalho	2024 porcentagem
Funcionários negros	62%
Outros dados demográficos	38%
Investimento em desenvolvimento de habilidades	Zar 487 milhões
Horário anual de treinamento por funcionário	42 horas

Expectativas da comunidade para o desenvolvimento econômico local e a criação de empregos

A criação de empregos local da Sasol em 2024: 3.742 empregos diretos, 15.680 empregos indiretos. Investimento comunitário: Zar 226 milhões em programas de desenvolvimento local.

Impacto no emprego	2024 Número
Trabalhos diretos criados	3,742
Empregos indiretos suportados	15,680
Investimento comunitário	Zar 226 milhões

Aumento da pressão social para governança ambiental e social transparente

Conformidade de relatórios de ESG: classificação de transparência de 98%. Investimento de Governança Social: Zar 342 milhões. Pontuação de auditoria de sustentabilidade externa: 4.7/5.

Métrica de Governança	2024 Valor
Classificação de transparência ESG	98%
Investimento de governança social	Zar 342 milhões
Pontuação de auditoria de sustentabilidade externa	4.7/5

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores tecnológicos

Investimentos substanciais em tecnologias de captura e conversão de carbono

A Sasol comprometeu o ZAR 1,2 bilhão (aproximadamente US $ 64 milhões) com as tecnologias de captura e armazenamento de carbono em 2023. O investimento em captura de carbono da empresa tem como alvo 2,3 milhões de toneladas de redução de CO2 anualmente até 2030.

Investimento em tecnologia	Quantidade (zar)	Alvo de redução de CO2
Tecnologias de captura de carbono	1,2 bilhão	2,3 milhões de toneladas/ano

Fuels sintéticos avançados e recursos de inovação de processamento químico

A tecnologia Fischer-Tropsch da Sasol permite a produção de 160.000 barris de combustível sintético por dia. As despesas de P&D para inovação de processamento químico atingiram o ZAR 750 milhões em 2023.

Tecnologia	Capacidade de produção	Investimento em P&D
Produção de combustível sintético	160.000 barris/dia	ZAR 750 milhões

Transformação digital de processos operacionais e integração de inteligência artificial

A Sasol investiu Zar 500 milhões em iniciativas de transformação digital. A implementação da IA ​​entre as operações melhorou a eficiência operacional em 22% em 2023.

Investimento digital	Melhoria de eficiência	Áreas de integração de IA
ZAR 500 milhões	22%	Otimização do processo, manutenção preditiva

Pesquisa sobre métodos de hidrogênio verde e produção de energia alternativa

O Sasol alocou o ZAR 900 milhões para a pesquisa em hidrogênio verde. A capacidade atual de produção de hidrogênio verde é de 3.000 toneladas por ano, com planos de expansão para 10.000 toneladas até 2026.

Foco na pesquisa	Investimento	Produção atual	Futuro alvo de produção
Hidrogênio verde	Zar 900 milhões	3.000 toneladas/ano	10.000 toneladas/ano (2026)

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Legais

Conformidade com regulamentos ambientais rigorosos em várias jurisdições

O Sasol enfrenta requisitos complexos de conformidade ambiental em várias jurisdições:

Jurisdição	Regulamentação ambiental -chave	Custo de conformidade (2023)
África do Sul	Lei Nacional de Gestão Ambiental	ZAR 1,2 bilhão
Estados Unidos	Lei do ar limpo	US $ 87 milhões
União Europeia	Diretiva de Emissões Industriais	65 milhões de euros

Requisitos complexos de licenciamento de comércio e exportação internacionais

Sasol navega por estruturas intrincadas de licenciamento de exportação:

Destino de exportação	Volume de exportação (2023)	Custo de conformidade de licenciamento
China	2,3 milhões de toneladas	Zar 45 milhões
Alemanha	1,7 milhão de toneladas	Zar 38 milhões
Estados Unidos	1,5 milhão de toneladas	Zar 42 milhões

Desafios legais contínuos relacionados ao impacto ambiental e às emissões

Detalhes legais de disputa:

• Valor do processo ambiental pendente: ZAR 750 milhões
• Número de casos ativos de litígios ambientais: 7
• Pena em potencial emissões de carbono: Zar 220 milhões

Navegar legislação de amplo Empoderamento Econômico Negro (BBEE)

Elemento B-BBEE	Porcentagem de conformidade	Valor do investimento
Propriedade	25.1%	Zar 1,5 bilhão
Controle de gerenciamento	40.2%	Zar 380 milhões
Desenvolvimento de habilidades	5.8%	Zar 275 milhões

Sasol Limited (SSL) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Ambientais

Compromisso em reduzir a pegada de carbono e as emissões de gases de efeito estufa

A Sasol Limited visa reduzir as emissões de gasto 1 e 2 de gases de efeito estufa em 30% até 2030 a partir de uma linha de base de 2017. As emissões totais de gases de efeito estufa da empresa em 2022 foram de 62,4 milhões de toneladas de equivalente a CO2.

Tipo de emissão	2022 Emissões (milhão de toneladas CO2E)	Alvo de redução
Escopo 1 emissões	52.3	Redução de 30% até 2030
Escopo 2 emissões	10.1	Redução de 30% até 2030

Desenvolvendo estratégias de transição de energia sustentável

A Sasol comprometeu Zar 50 bilhões (aproximadamente US $ 2,7 bilhões) em relação aos investimentos de transição de baixo carbono entre 2021 e 2030.

Componente de estratégia	Valor do investimento	Linha do tempo
Transição de baixo carbono	Zar 50 bilhões	2021-2030

Investimento em energia renovável e tecnologias de baixo carbono

A Sasol iniciou vários projetos de energia renovável, incluindo uma fábrica fotovoltaica solar de 140 MW em suas operações secundas, que deve gerar 360.000 MWh de eletricidade renovável anualmente.

Projeto de energia renovável	Capacidade	Geração anual de eletricidade
Secunda Solar PV Plant	140 MW	360.000 MWh

Implementando princípios de economia circular em processos industriais

A Sasol implementou iniciativas de reciclagem de água, atingindo uma taxa de reciclagem de água de 41% em 2022, com um alvo para aumentar isso para 50% até 2030.

Métrica de gerenciamento de água	2022 Performance	Alvo de 2030
Taxa de reciclagem de água	41%	50%

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Significant pressure to address high local unemployment through job creation.

Sasol Limited operates in a South African context where high youth unemployment (ages 15-34) remains a severe systemic challenge, demanding collaborative action from large corporations. The company is a massive economic anchor in its fenceline communities; for instance, in the Govan Mbeki local municipality, Sasol South Africa (SSA) operations support an estimated 55.0% of employment, and in Metsimaholo, this figure is almost 75%. This concentration of economic reliance places immense pressure on Sasol to maintain and grow its workforce, especially as it transitions its business model.

To mitigate this, Sasol has an integrated approach focusing on skills development, workplace experience, and small business development. In the past year, Sasol was recognised as one of South Africa's top ten largest investors in corporate social responsibility (CSI) and impact, allocating 2% of its net profit after tax to social impact initiatives. The new two-year Graduate Internship Programme, targeting youth in operational and fenceline communities, saw its first cohort of graduates begin internships in July 2025. That's a clear, actionable step.

Here's the quick math on the scale of Sasol's employment impact (based on 2023 data, which frames the 2025 context):

Economic Impact Metric	Value (Sasol South Africa)	Context
Total Jobs Supported (Direct, Indirect, Induced)	452,683 jobs	Across the South African economy.
Employment Supported in Govan Mbeki Municipality	55.0%	Percentage of total employment in the municipality.
Employment Supported in Metsimaholo Municipality	Almost 75%	Percentage of total employment in the municipality.
Permanent Employees (FY24 data)	28,630	The core workforce number.

Focus on just transition principles for communities affected by decarbonization.

Sasol's decarbonization pathway, which includes reducing coal feedstock by 25% by 2030, will defintely have negative socio-economic consequences for its workforce, communities, and suppliers. The company is committed to a 'just transition' (a framework ensuring the shift to a low-carbon economy is fair and inclusive), aligning with South Africa's Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) Just Transition Framework.

The company established a Just Transition Office (JTO) to coordinate its socio-economic activities, which is currently focused on the framework development phase. What this estimate hides is the sheer difficulty of replacing coal-related jobs with 'green economy' opportunities at the required scale and speed. The transition risk is not just environmental, but a massive social stability risk in their core operating areas.

Key focus areas for the Just Transition Office include:

• Developing skills for work and entrepreneurship.
• Scaling the Bridge to Work programme for youth employability.
• Investing in research for future green economy skills.
• Co-creating opportunities with key stakeholders.

Maintaining a strong social license to operate amid environmental concerns is critical.

The company's social license to operate is intrinsically linked to its environmental performance, particularly concerning its high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the risk of litigation related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. Sasol acknowledges an increased risk of challenges to its environmental licenses, which could adversely impact the resilience of its operations.

The company's immense contribution to local services often fills the gap left by struggling municipal services, which helps maintain community support. A 2024 community survey in Sasolburg and Secunda found that over 70% of residents believe their lives would be worse off without Sasol's interventions, highlighting their vital role in community stability. Sasol's combined Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for FY2025 stood at an estimated 94,937,694 tCO2e, demonstrating the scale of the environmental challenge that constantly tests its social acceptance.

Labor relations and wage negotiations in South Africa pose ongoing operational risks.

Labor stability is a persistent operational risk, especially given the complex relationship with major trade unions like the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU). Recent industrial action underscores this volatility. In March 2025, AMCU members embarked on a strike over a dispute concerning the implementation of a 4-shift work system and the remuneration rates for Sunday work at one of the plants.

This dispute, which involved a strike notice issued in February 2025 and subsequent industrial action, highlights that even non-wage, operational changes can quickly escalate into significant disruptions. Sasol's policy encourages its suppliers and contractors to pay market-related and competitive rates to mitigate industrial action and maintain site-wide labor harmony. The company must manage a delicate balance between operational optimization (like the shift system change) and the expectations of its collective bargaining units. Sasol's cash fixed cost increases were contained below inflation in the 2025 fiscal year, which is great for the balance sheet, but it adds pressure to future wage negotiations.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Major investment in green hydrogen and Power-to-X technologies for future fuel mix.

Sasol is making a calculated, but not reckless, push into green hydrogen and Power-to-X (PtX) technologies, which turn renewable electricity into synthetic fuels and chemicals. To be fair, the company is not rushing to be the first mover, as CEO Simon Baloyi noted in January 2025, citing the high cost and risk of new technology. Still, the long-term strategic direction is clear: a shift toward lower-carbon feedstocks. The company has already concluded a final investment decision to produce green hydrogen at its Sasolburg facilities.

A key enabler for this shift is a massive ramp-up in renewable energy capacity. The company has increased its renewable energy target to more than 2 GW (Gigawatts), up from a previous 1.2 GW goal. As of August 2025, Sasol had secured approximately 920 MW of this capacity through a mix of Power Purchase Agreements and self-build projects. This is a defintely necessary step to power future PtX assets, like the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects being pursued in partnership with others.

• Secured 920 MW of renewable energy capacity as of August 2025.
• Targeting >2 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
• Exploring the massive Boegoebaai green hydrogen hub project.

Need to continuously upgrade and maintain aging Secunda Synfuels complex infrastructure.

The technological challenge at the Secunda Synfuels complex, the world's largest single-site emitter, is not just about new tech, but about maintaining and optimizing the current infrastructure. The core problem impacting production in the 2025 fiscal year was the deteriorating quality of the coal feedstock, which reduced gasifier availability and yield. This poor coal quality has led to damaged equipment and longer downtimes.

Sasol is addressing this with a low-risk, cost-effective technological solution: a destoning project at the Twistdraai Export Plant, which is being repurposed. This project, costing less than R1 billion, is expected to be in beneficial operation in the first half of the 2026 financial year (H1 FY26). This, combined with other maintenance interventions, is projected to help ramp up Secunda Operations production to more than 7.4 million tons by FY2028. Separately, a significant upgrade of two 9E gas turbines at the Secunda power facility was completed in May 2025, reducing Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 75% and cutting CO₂ emissions by approximately 10,000 metric tonnes per turbine each year. That's smart maintenance.

Advancements in carbon capture and storage (CCS) are crucial for decarbonization targets.

Advancements in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology are crucial in theory for a coal-heavy company, but Sasol's revised strategy shows a diminished near-term reliance on it. The company's Optimised Emissions Reduction Roadmap (ERR) still commits to a 30% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 (off a 2017 baseline). However, the total capital expenditure (capex) budget for emission reduction projects over the coming five years has been drastically cut by 70%, now standing at between R4 billion and R7 billion.

This revised plan relies less on large-scale, unproven CCS and more on renewable energy, operational efficiencies, and market-based mechanisms (carbon offsets). Critics like Just Share have raised concerns about the lack of detailed CCS plans in this new roadmap. The financial pressure from carbon pricing is real, though; Sasol's net 2025 carbon tax payment for 2024 emissions was R1.7 billion after offsets and electricity levies.

Metric	Previous ERR Capex (R billion)	Optimised ERR Capex (R billion) - 2025-2030	Change
Emission Reduction Capex	15 - 25	4 - 7	~70% reduction
2030 GHG Reduction Target (Scope 1 & 2)	30%	30%	No change
FY2025 Net Carbon Tax Payment (for 2024 emissions)	N/A	R1.7 billion	Actual cost pressure

Leveraging digitalization and AI to optimize complex production processes.

Digitalization is a quiet but critical technological factor for Sasol, focused on optimizing their incredibly complex, integrated value chain. They are moving forward with a modern Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) program, successfully completing the SAP S4/Hana pilot go-live in Italy in April 2025, marking the first implementation in International Chemicals. This is the foundation for better data-driven decision-making across the global business.

Beyond ERP, the company is actively exploring the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to drive value. A dedicated innovation team has been developing a significant number of generative AI use cases-between 10 and 30-to automate and optimize processes. This is where the real efficiency gains will come from, especially in a business with such high operational complexity. They are using advanced models like GPT4 with semantic search to automate tasks, which is how you get ahead of the curve in a commodity business.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Compliance with stringent air quality standards and emissions limits in South Africa

You are watching a high-stakes legal battle play out in real-time, one that directly impacts Sasol's license to operate its core assets. The biggest legal risk for the company right now centers on its compliance with South Africa's Minimum Emission Standards (MES) for its Secunda operations, which is the world's largest single-site source of industrial point-source greenhouse gas emissions. The critical compliance deadline for the stricter 2020 MES was March 31, 2025.

Sasol has been actively seeking regulatory relief, arguing that the cost and technical difficulty of retrofitting its existing coal-fired boilers, particularly for sulfur dioxide ($\text{SO}_2$) abatement, is too high. The company successfully appealed a decision by the National Air Quality Officer (NAQO), securing a crucial, albeit controversial, alternative limit from the Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment. This decision, granted in April 2024, permits Sasol to use a load-based limit for $\text{SO}_2$ emissions at its 17 Secunda coal-fired boilers.

Here's the quick math on the regulatory compromise:

• Legislated MES (Concentration-based): $1000 \text{ mg/Nm}^3$ for $\text{SO}_2$.
• Minister-Granted Limit (Load-based): 503 tonnes of $\text{SO}_2$ per day.
• Duration of Alternative Limit: April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2030.

What this estimate hides is the condition that this alternative $\text{SO}_2$ limit will be withdrawn if Sasol fails to comply with the MES for other pollutants, specifically particulate matter (PM) and oxides of nitrogen ($\text{NO}_x$), by the March 31, 2025 deadline. The company has already committed significant capital, spending over R7 billion in the past year (as of July 2023) on curbing emissions at its Secunda, Sasolburg, and Natref plants, but the $\text{SO}_2$ challenge remains the central legal and financial threat.

Navigating international trade laws and sanctions affecting global chemical sales

Operating a global chemicals business means constantly navigating a complex and shifting web of international trade laws, export controls, and sanctions. For a company with significant international chemicals sales, especially in the US and Eurasia, this is a non-negotiable compliance area.

The legal and geopolitical environment directly impacted Sasol's Fiscal Year 2025 outlook. For instance, the uncertainty surrounding ongoing global tariff disputes, including US government changes to import tariffs announced in April 2025, forced a revision in guidance. The company's full-year outlook for International Chemicals sales volumes was revised to the lower end of the previous guidance, indicating a potential 4-8% decrease compared to FY24.

Sasol's Code of Conduct explicitly requires adherence to:

• Trade controls and international sanctions laws.
• Anti-bribery and anti-corruption laws.
• Competition (antitrust) laws.

The company maintains policies to ensure that its transactions, including those with suppliers, comply with sanctions imposed by authorities like the United Nations, European Union, and the US Government. You have to be defintely vigilant here; one misstep on a sanctioned entity can trigger massive fines and reputational damage from US regulators.

Adherence to evolving corporate governance and anti-corruption legislation

As a dual-listed entity on both the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Sasol is subject to two distinct, stringent regulatory regimes. This dual listing is a major driver of its corporate governance structure, forcing it to comply with both the South African Companies Act and the US Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX).

The Board confirmed its satisfaction that it fulfilled all its duties and obligations in the 2025 financial year, which is a critical statement for investors. The focus on anti-corruption is perpetual, particularly in jurisdictions where Sasol operates, such as Mozambique and South Africa, which have historically presented higher corruption risks. The company's governance framework prioritizes key legal compliance risk areas:

Regulatory Requirement	Jurisdiction	FY2025 Compliance Focus
South African Companies Act	South Africa (JSE)	Director duties, financial reporting, shareholder rights.
Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX)	United States (NYSE)	Internal financial controls and reporting accuracy.
Anti-Bribery and Anti-Corruption Laws	Global	Due diligence on third parties, whistle-blower protection.

The robust framework is there, but the real test is consistent enforcement of its Code of Conduct across all global subsidiaries, which is where most anti-corruption breaches occur.

Complex permitting and licensing for new energy projects, like gas exploration

The legal and regulatory environment for new energy projects, especially cross-border gas exploration and production, is notoriously complex. Sasol's strategic focus on natural gas, particularly in Mozambique, is heavily dependent on securing and maintaining long-term licenses and production agreements.

The company's key development is the Mozambique Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) project, which focuses on the Inhassoro, Temane, and Pande gas fields. This project, with a committed investment of approximately \$1 billion, was targeted to be activated by September 2025. The purpose is two-fold: to supply gas to the 450-megawatt Central Térmica de Temane (CTT) power plant in Mozambique and to export the balance to South Africa via the existing ROMPCO pipeline.

The permitting challenge is amplified by the trans-boundary nature of the project and the need to manage the decline of the mature Pande and Temane fields. Beginning mid-2026, Sasol is projected to reduce gas exports to South Africa as it redirects volumes to downstream Mozambique facilities, which creates a legal and contractual supply gap risk for its South African industrial customers. At full capacity, the PSA fields are expected to yield 53 million megajoules of natural gas annually and 4,000 barrels of light oil per day, but hitting these production targets hinges on flawless execution of the permitting and licensing schedule.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Sasol targets a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, requiring massive capital outlay.

You're watching Sasol's decarbonization strategy closely, and the big takeaway from their May 2025 Capital Markets Day is a pivot: the 30% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 (off a 2017 baseline) is still their firm target, but the capital required has been drastically cut. They've announced a dramatic 70% reduction in the associated capital expenditure (CapEx) budget.

The original plan called for a massive outlay of between R15 billion and R25 billion in aggregate transformation capital up to 2030. The revised roadmap, however, now projects an investment of only between R4 billion and R7 billion on emission-reduction projects over the coming five years. This is a huge shift, achieved primarily by abandoning capital-intensive solutions like coal fines briquetting and repurposing assets, such as converting the Twistdraai export coal plant into a 10-million-ton-a-year destoning operation to improve coal quality at Secunda Operations.

The revised strategy leans heavily on renewable energy procurement, increasing the target from 1.2 GW to 2 GW, with 575 MW already secured through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). That's a smart move to cut costs. Here's the quick math on the CapEx change:

Metric	Original 2030 Roadmap (2021)	Revised 2030 Roadmap (May 2025)
GHG Reduction Target	30% (Scope 1 & 2)	30% (Scope 1 & 2)
Aggregate CapEx (to 2030)	R15 billion - R25 billion	R4 billion - R7 billion
Renewable Energy Target	1.2 GW	2 GW
CapEx Reduction	-	~70% cut

The increasing cost of the South African carbon tax directly hits the bottom line.

The South African carbon tax has been a major financial risk, but recent legislative changes have provided significant near-term relief. The National Treasury's March 2025 Budget Review confirmed a crucial concession: the 60% basic tax-free allowance will be retained until at least the end of 2030. This retention, instead of the previously proposed step-down starting in 2026, offers Sasol greater investment certainty and a slower ramp-up of costs.

Still, the tax is a real cost. Sasol's carbon tax bill was recently reported at approximately R1.8 billion, which is relatively small for a company that emits around 64,000 kilotons of CO2 annually. To manage this liability, the company is increasingly relying on carbon credits. For the fiscal year ended June 2025, Sasol's carbon credit purchases surged to R723 million, a 25% increase year-on-year. This flexibility is key, but it defintely delays the deep, structural decarbonization needed.

Water scarcity and management are critical issues for its large-scale operations.

Water is a critical, high-risk factor, especially since 88% of Sasol's total water use is concentrated in its South African operations, which are located in water-stressed regions like the Upper Vaal Catchment. Sasolburg Operations (SO) has a specific, measurable target for the 2025 fiscal year.

Their focus is on reducing fresh-water dependence by maximizing re-use and effluent use. This is a must-do in a country facing a major water crisis.

• Reduce fresh-water usage at Sasolburg by 7.5% by the end of 2025 (FY21 baseline).
• The maximum target consumption for Sasolburg is 50 ML/day.
• The average water intensity for Sasolburg in FY24 was 11.72 $m^3/t$ (cubic meters of water per ton of total production), which was above the FY25 target, showing a challenge in meeting efficiency goals due to increased steam demands.

Pressure from investors to divest from high-carbon assets and accelerate the energy transition.

Investors want a clearer, faster path away from high-carbon assets, and they want to see capital discipline. Sasol is responding through a dual strategy: optimizing its existing high-carbon base while selectively divesting non-core, carbon-intensive assets.

The company's 2025 strategy update was a conscious effort to balance investor demands for a 'just transition' with the financial reality of its coal-to-liquids (CTL) assets. They are increasing coal output at Secunda to over 7.4 million tonnes to improve plant stability and profitability, which is a near-term counter-intuitive move but one that improves cash flow for long-term transition funding.

To show commitment to portfolio simplification and margin improvement, which is a form of 'soft' divestment pressure response, Sasol has been actively optimizing its International Chemicals portfolio:

• Exited the US Phenolics business in March 2025.
• Completed clean-up activities for the Alkylphenol plant in Marl, Germany, and the Guerbet plant in Lake Charles, US.
• Stopped production at the Phenolics plants in Texas, US, and the HF LAB plant in Augusta, Italy, in Q1 FY26 (ending September 2025).

These actions cut complexity and capital risk, which is what the market is defintely demanding.