SASOL LIMITED (SSL): Analyse du Pestle [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le paysage dynamique de l'énergie mondiale, Sasol Limited se dresse à un carrefour critique, naviguant des défis complexes et des opportunités transformatrices qui s'étendent sur des domaines politiques, économiques, technologiques et environnementaux. En tant que société pionnière de l'énergie et de produits chimiques sud-africaines, Sasol se repositionne stratégiquement au milieu de perturbations sans précédent de l'industrie, équilibrant les opérations traditionnelles de combustibles fossiles avec des investissements ambitieux en technologie durable. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile les facteurs externes à multiples facettes qui façonnent la trajectoire stratégique de Sasol, offrant une exploration perspicace des forces complexes stimulant son évolution opérationnelle et sa résilience future dans un marché mondial de plus en plus compétitif et soucieux de l'environnement.

SASOL LIMITED (SSL) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

L'engagement du gouvernement sud-africain à la transition énergétique et aux politiques de décarbonisation

Le Plan de ressources intégré d'Afrique du Sud (IRP) 2019 cible 25% d'énergie renouvelable d'ici 2030. Le gouvernement s'est engagé à réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 28% d'ici 2030.

Métrique politique	Année cible	Objectif spécifique
Pourcentage d'énergie renouvelable	2030	25%
Réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre	2030	28%

Pressions réglementaires en cours pour réduire les émissions de carbone dans le secteur de l'énergie

La taxe sur le carbone en Afrique du Sud est actuellement fixée à R144 par tonne d'équivalent CO2, avec des augmentations progressives planifiées.

• Taux d'imposition du carbone: R144 / TON CO2 équivalent
• Émissions obligatoires signalant des émetteurs importants
• Augmentation des exigences de conformité réglementaire

Impacts potentiels de l'instabilité politique et des changements de politique dans les régions riches en ressources

L'indice des risques politiques pour l'Afrique du Sud en 2023 était de 58,6, indiquant une volatilité politique modérée.

Indicateur de risque politique	Valeur 2023
Indice des risques politiques	58.6
Score d'efficacité de la gouvernance	-0.52

Règlements complexes sur les relations de travail et l'autonomisation dans l'industrie de l'énergie sud-africaine

Le tableau de bord de l'autonomisation économique noire (B-BBEE) à large base nécessite des objectifs spécifiques de propriété et de transformation de gestion.

• Exigence de propriété noire: minimum 25% + 1 part
• Target de contrôle de la gestion: 50% de représentation noire
• Dépenses de développement des compétences: 3% de la paie

Mesures de conformité clés pour l'emploi du secteur de l'énergie: - Représentation de la gestion des Noirs: 43,2% - Personnel technique noir: 52,7% - dépenses de transformation de la main-d'œuvre: 1,2 milliard de rands par an

SASOL LIMITED (SSL) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

Tarification mondiale du pétrole et du gaz volatile affectant les sources de revenus de l'entreprise

Les revenus de SASOL sont directement liés aux prix mondiaux du pétrole et du gaz, le prix du pétrole brut Brent en moyenne de 81,50 $ le baril en 2023. Le chiffre d'affaires annuel de la société pour l'exercice 2023 a atteint le ZAR 488,3 milliards, avec des fluctuations importantes basées sur la dynamique internationale du marché de l'énergie.

Année	Revenus (zar milliards)	Impact du prix du pétrole
2022	534.2	94,20 $ / baril
2023	488.3	81,50 $ / baril

Investissement important dans les technologies d'énergie renouvelable et d'hydrogène

Sasol a commis un zar de 12,5 milliards de dollars pour des projets verts d'hydrogène et d'énergie renouvelable en 2023. Investissement prévu de 45 milliards de zar d'ici 2030 dans des stratégies de transition à faible teneur en carbone.

Catégorie d'investissement	Montant (zar milliard)	Laps de temps
Hydrogène vert	7.5	2023-2025
Énergie renouvelable	5.0	2023-2025

Défis économiques sur le marché sud-africain avec des taux de chômage élevés

Le taux de chômage de l'Afrique du Sud à 32,9% au troisième trimestre 2023, ce qui concerne directement la main-d'œuvre intérieure de Sasol et les stratégies opérationnelles. L'entreprise emploie environ 31 000 employés, avec 85% situés en Afrique du Sud.

Les fluctuations de la monnaie ont un impact sur les opérations internationales

Le Rand sud-africain (ZAR) a connu une dépréciation de 12,4% par rapport au dollar américain en 2023. Les opérations internationales affectées par la volatilité des devises, avec environ 40% des revenus générés à partir des marchés internationaux.

Métrique de la devise	Valeur 2023	Impact
Taux de change ZAR / USD	18.65	12,4% d'amortissement
Revenus internationaux	40%	Exposition importante

SASOL LIMITED (SSL) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Demande publique croissante de solutions énergétiques durables et respectueuses de l'environnement

En 2024, SASOL a commis une réduction de 40% des émissions de gaz à effet de serre d'ici 2030. Les enquêtes publiques sur la durabilité indiquent que 68% des parties prenantes privilégient la responsabilité environnementale des entreprises. L'investissement en énergies renouvelables a atteint le ZAR 12,3 milliards en 2023.

Métrique de la durabilité	Valeur 2023	Cible 2024
Réduction des émissions de carbone	22%	40%
Investissement en énergie verte	ZAR 12,3 milliards	ZAR 15,7 milliards
Préférence environnementale des parties prenantes	68%	75%

Changements démographiques de la main-d'œuvre nécessitant un développement et une transformation des compétences

Composition de la main-d'œuvre de Sasol en 2024: 62% d'employés noirs, 38% d'autres données démographiques. Investissement de développement des compétences: ZAR 487 millions par an. Heures de formation des employés: 42 heures par employé par an.

Métrique de la diversité de la main-d'œuvre	2024 pourcentage
Employés noirs	62%
Autres données démographiques	38%
Investissement de développement des compétences	Zar 487 millions
Heures de formation annuelles par employé	42 heures

Attentes communautaires pour le développement économique local et la création d'emplois

Création d'emplois locale de Sasol en 2024: 3 742 emplois directs, 15 680 emplois indirects. Investissement communautaire: ZAR 226 millions dans les programmes de développement locaux.

Impact	Numéro 2024
Emplois directs créés	3,742
Emplois indirects soutenus	15,680
Investissement communautaire	Zar 226 millions

Pression sociale accrue pour la gouvernance environnementale et sociale transparente

Conformité des rapports ESG: Évaluation de la transparence à 98%. Investissement de gouvernance sociale: ZAR 342 millions. Score d'audit de la durabilité externe: 4,7 / 5.

Métrique de la gouvernance	Valeur 2024
Évaluation de la transparence ESG	98%
Investissement de gouvernance sociale	Zar 342 millions
Score d'audit de la durabilité externe	4.7/5

SASOL LIMITED (SSL) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Investissements substantiels dans les technologies de capture et de conversion du carbone

Sasol a engagé ZAR 1,2 milliard (environ 64 millions de dollars) aux technologies de capture et de stockage du carbone en 2023. L'investissement de capture de carbone de la société cible 2,3 millions de tonnes de réduction de CO2 par an d'ici 2030.

Investissement technologique	Montant (ZAR)	Cible de réduction de CO2
Technologies de capture de carbone	1,2 milliard	2,3 millions de tonnes / an

Carburants synthétiques avancés et capacités d'innovation de traitement des produits chimiques

La technologie Fischer-Tropsch de Sasol permet une production de 160 000 barils de carburant synthétique par jour. Les dépenses de R&D pour l'innovation de traitement des produits chimiques ont atteint le ZAR 750 millions en 2023.

Technologie	Capacité de production	Investissement en R&D
Production de carburant synthétique	160 000 barils / jour	Zar 750 millions

Transformation numérique des processus opérationnels et intégration de l'intelligence artificielle

Sasol a investi 500 millions ZAR dans les initiatives de transformation numérique. La mise en œuvre de l'IA entre les opérations a amélioré l'efficacité opérationnelle de 22% en 2023.

Investissement numérique	Amélioration de l'efficacité	Zones d'intégration d'IA
ZAR 500 millions	22%	Optimisation du processus, maintenance prédictive

Recherche sur l'hydrogène vert et les méthodes de production d'énergie alternative

Sasol a alloué ZAR 900 millions pour la recherche sur l'hydrogène vert. La capacité actuelle de production d'hydrogène verte s'élève à 3 000 tonnes par an, avec des plans pour s'étendre à 10 000 tonnes d'ici 2026.

Focus de recherche	Investissement	Production actuelle	Cible de production future
Hydrogène vert	ZAR 900 millions	3 000 tonnes / an	10 000 tonnes / an (2026)

SASOL LIMITED (SSL) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Conformité aux réglementations environnementales strictes dans plusieurs juridictions

Sasol fait face à des exigences complexes de conformité environnementale dans plusieurs juridictions:

Juridiction	Règlement environnemental clé	Coût de conformité (2023)
Afrique du Sud	Loi nationale de gestion de l'environnement	ZAR 1,2 milliard
États-Unis	Clean Air Act	87 millions USD
Union européenne	Directive des émissions industrielles	65 millions d'euros

Exigences complexes du commerce international et des licences d'exportation

Sasol navigue sur les cadres de licence d'exportation complexes:

Destination d'exportation	Volume d'exportation (2023)	Coût de conformité des licences
Chine	2,3 millions de tonnes	Zar 45 millions
Allemagne	1,7 million de tonnes	ZAR 38 millions
États-Unis	1,5 million de tonnes	Zar 42 millions

Défices juridiques en cours liés à l'impact environnemental et aux émissions

Détails du litige juridique:

• Valeur de procès environnementaux en attente: zar 750 millions
• Nombre de cas de litige environnemental actif: 7
• Pénalité potentielle des émissions de carbone: ZAR 220 millions

Navigation de la législation sur l'autonomisation économique des Noirs (B-BBEE)

Élément b-bBee	Pourcentage de conformité	Montant d'investissement
Possession	25.1%	ZAR 1,5 milliard
Contrôle de la gestion	40.2%	Zar 380 millions
Développement des compétences	5.8%	ZAR 275 millions

SASOL LIMITED (SSL) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Engagement à réduire l'empreinte carbone et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre

Sasol Limited vise à réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre des lunettes 1 et 2 de 30% d'ici 2030 par rapport à une base de référence en 2017. Les émissions totales de gaz à effet de serre de la société en 2022 étaient de 62,4 millions de tonnes d'équivalent CO2.

Type d'émission	2022 émissions (million de tonnes CO2E)	Cible de réduction
Émissions de la portée 1	52.3	Réduction de 30% d'ici 2030
Émissions de la portée 2	10.1	Réduction de 30% d'ici 2030

Développer des stratégies de transition énergétique durables

Sasol a commis 50 milliards de zar (environ 2,7 milliards USD) vers des investissements en transition à faible teneur en carbone entre 2021 et 2030.

Composant de stratégie	Montant d'investissement	Chronologie
Transition à faible teneur en carbone	Zar 50 milliards	2021-2030

Investissement dans les énergies renouvelables et les technologies à faible émission de carbone

Sasol a lancé plusieurs projets d'énergie renouvelable, dont une usine solaire photovoltaïque de 140 MW dans ses opérations Secunda, qui devrait générer 360 000 MWh d'électricité renouvelable par an.

Projet d'énergie renouvelable	Capacité	Production d'électricité annuelle
Secunda Solar PV	140 MW	360 000 MWh

Mise en œuvre des principes de l'économie circulaire dans les processus industriels

SASOL a mis en œuvre des initiatives de recyclage de l'eau, atteignant un taux de recyclage de l'eau de 41% en 2022, avec une cible pour augmenter cela à 50% d'ici 2030.

Métrique de gestion de l'eau	2022 Performance	Cible 2030
Taux de recyclage de l'eau	41%	50%

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Significant pressure to address high local unemployment through job creation.

Sasol Limited operates in a South African context where high youth unemployment (ages 15-34) remains a severe systemic challenge, demanding collaborative action from large corporations. The company is a massive economic anchor in its fenceline communities; for instance, in the Govan Mbeki local municipality, Sasol South Africa (SSA) operations support an estimated 55.0% of employment, and in Metsimaholo, this figure is almost 75%. This concentration of economic reliance places immense pressure on Sasol to maintain and grow its workforce, especially as it transitions its business model.

To mitigate this, Sasol has an integrated approach focusing on skills development, workplace experience, and small business development. In the past year, Sasol was recognised as one of South Africa's top ten largest investors in corporate social responsibility (CSI) and impact, allocating 2% of its net profit after tax to social impact initiatives. The new two-year Graduate Internship Programme, targeting youth in operational and fenceline communities, saw its first cohort of graduates begin internships in July 2025. That's a clear, actionable step.

Here's the quick math on the scale of Sasol's employment impact (based on 2023 data, which frames the 2025 context):

Economic Impact Metric	Value (Sasol South Africa)	Context
Total Jobs Supported (Direct, Indirect, Induced)	452,683 jobs	Across the South African economy.
Employment Supported in Govan Mbeki Municipality	55.0%	Percentage of total employment in the municipality.
Employment Supported in Metsimaholo Municipality	Almost 75%	Percentage of total employment in the municipality.
Permanent Employees (FY24 data)	28,630	The core workforce number.

Focus on just transition principles for communities affected by decarbonization.

Sasol's decarbonization pathway, which includes reducing coal feedstock by 25% by 2030, will defintely have negative socio-economic consequences for its workforce, communities, and suppliers. The company is committed to a 'just transition' (a framework ensuring the shift to a low-carbon economy is fair and inclusive), aligning with South Africa's Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) Just Transition Framework.

The company established a Just Transition Office (JTO) to coordinate its socio-economic activities, which is currently focused on the framework development phase. What this estimate hides is the sheer difficulty of replacing coal-related jobs with 'green economy' opportunities at the required scale and speed. The transition risk is not just environmental, but a massive social stability risk in their core operating areas.

Key focus areas for the Just Transition Office include:

• Developing skills for work and entrepreneurship.
• Scaling the Bridge to Work programme for youth employability.
• Investing in research for future green economy skills.
• Co-creating opportunities with key stakeholders.

Maintaining a strong social license to operate amid environmental concerns is critical.

The company's social license to operate is intrinsically linked to its environmental performance, particularly concerning its high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the risk of litigation related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. Sasol acknowledges an increased risk of challenges to its environmental licenses, which could adversely impact the resilience of its operations.

The company's immense contribution to local services often fills the gap left by struggling municipal services, which helps maintain community support. A 2024 community survey in Sasolburg and Secunda found that over 70% of residents believe their lives would be worse off without Sasol's interventions, highlighting their vital role in community stability. Sasol's combined Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for FY2025 stood at an estimated 94,937,694 tCO2e, demonstrating the scale of the environmental challenge that constantly tests its social acceptance.

Labor relations and wage negotiations in South Africa pose ongoing operational risks.

Labor stability is a persistent operational risk, especially given the complex relationship with major trade unions like the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU). Recent industrial action underscores this volatility. In March 2025, AMCU members embarked on a strike over a dispute concerning the implementation of a 4-shift work system and the remuneration rates for Sunday work at one of the plants.

This dispute, which involved a strike notice issued in February 2025 and subsequent industrial action, highlights that even non-wage, operational changes can quickly escalate into significant disruptions. Sasol's policy encourages its suppliers and contractors to pay market-related and competitive rates to mitigate industrial action and maintain site-wide labor harmony. The company must manage a delicate balance between operational optimization (like the shift system change) and the expectations of its collective bargaining units. Sasol's cash fixed cost increases were contained below inflation in the 2025 fiscal year, which is great for the balance sheet, but it adds pressure to future wage negotiations.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Major investment in green hydrogen and Power-to-X technologies for future fuel mix.

Sasol is making a calculated, but not reckless, push into green hydrogen and Power-to-X (PtX) technologies, which turn renewable electricity into synthetic fuels and chemicals. To be fair, the company is not rushing to be the first mover, as CEO Simon Baloyi noted in January 2025, citing the high cost and risk of new technology. Still, the long-term strategic direction is clear: a shift toward lower-carbon feedstocks. The company has already concluded a final investment decision to produce green hydrogen at its Sasolburg facilities.

A key enabler for this shift is a massive ramp-up in renewable energy capacity. The company has increased its renewable energy target to more than 2 GW (Gigawatts), up from a previous 1.2 GW goal. As of August 2025, Sasol had secured approximately 920 MW of this capacity through a mix of Power Purchase Agreements and self-build projects. This is a defintely necessary step to power future PtX assets, like the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects being pursued in partnership with others.

• Secured 920 MW of renewable energy capacity as of August 2025.
• Targeting >2 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
• Exploring the massive Boegoebaai green hydrogen hub project.

Need to continuously upgrade and maintain aging Secunda Synfuels complex infrastructure.

The technological challenge at the Secunda Synfuels complex, the world's largest single-site emitter, is not just about new tech, but about maintaining and optimizing the current infrastructure. The core problem impacting production in the 2025 fiscal year was the deteriorating quality of the coal feedstock, which reduced gasifier availability and yield. This poor coal quality has led to damaged equipment and longer downtimes.

Sasol is addressing this with a low-risk, cost-effective technological solution: a destoning project at the Twistdraai Export Plant, which is being repurposed. This project, costing less than R1 billion, is expected to be in beneficial operation in the first half of the 2026 financial year (H1 FY26). This, combined with other maintenance interventions, is projected to help ramp up Secunda Operations production to more than 7.4 million tons by FY2028. Separately, a significant upgrade of two 9E gas turbines at the Secunda power facility was completed in May 2025, reducing Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 75% and cutting CO₂ emissions by approximately 10,000 metric tonnes per turbine each year. That's smart maintenance.

Advancements in carbon capture and storage (CCS) are crucial for decarbonization targets.

Advancements in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology are crucial in theory for a coal-heavy company, but Sasol's revised strategy shows a diminished near-term reliance on it. The company's Optimised Emissions Reduction Roadmap (ERR) still commits to a 30% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 (off a 2017 baseline). However, the total capital expenditure (capex) budget for emission reduction projects over the coming five years has been drastically cut by 70%, now standing at between R4 billion and R7 billion.

This revised plan relies less on large-scale, unproven CCS and more on renewable energy, operational efficiencies, and market-based mechanisms (carbon offsets). Critics like Just Share have raised concerns about the lack of detailed CCS plans in this new roadmap. The financial pressure from carbon pricing is real, though; Sasol's net 2025 carbon tax payment for 2024 emissions was R1.7 billion after offsets and electricity levies.

Metric	Previous ERR Capex (R billion)	Optimised ERR Capex (R billion) - 2025-2030	Change
Emission Reduction Capex	15 - 25	4 - 7	~70% reduction
2030 GHG Reduction Target (Scope 1 & 2)	30%	30%	No change
FY2025 Net Carbon Tax Payment (for 2024 emissions)	N/A	R1.7 billion	Actual cost pressure

Leveraging digitalization and AI to optimize complex production processes.

Digitalization is a quiet but critical technological factor for Sasol, focused on optimizing their incredibly complex, integrated value chain. They are moving forward with a modern Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) program, successfully completing the SAP S4/Hana pilot go-live in Italy in April 2025, marking the first implementation in International Chemicals. This is the foundation for better data-driven decision-making across the global business.

Beyond ERP, the company is actively exploring the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to drive value. A dedicated innovation team has been developing a significant number of generative AI use cases-between 10 and 30-to automate and optimize processes. This is where the real efficiency gains will come from, especially in a business with such high operational complexity. They are using advanced models like GPT4 with semantic search to automate tasks, which is how you get ahead of the curve in a commodity business.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Compliance with stringent air quality standards and emissions limits in South Africa

You are watching a high-stakes legal battle play out in real-time, one that directly impacts Sasol's license to operate its core assets. The biggest legal risk for the company right now centers on its compliance with South Africa's Minimum Emission Standards (MES) for its Secunda operations, which is the world's largest single-site source of industrial point-source greenhouse gas emissions. The critical compliance deadline for the stricter 2020 MES was March 31, 2025.

Sasol has been actively seeking regulatory relief, arguing that the cost and technical difficulty of retrofitting its existing coal-fired boilers, particularly for sulfur dioxide ($\text{SO}_2$) abatement, is too high. The company successfully appealed a decision by the National Air Quality Officer (NAQO), securing a crucial, albeit controversial, alternative limit from the Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment. This decision, granted in April 2024, permits Sasol to use a load-based limit for $\text{SO}_2$ emissions at its 17 Secunda coal-fired boilers.

Here's the quick math on the regulatory compromise:

• Legislated MES (Concentration-based): $1000 \text{ mg/Nm}^3$ for $\text{SO}_2$.
• Minister-Granted Limit (Load-based): 503 tonnes of $\text{SO}_2$ per day.
• Duration of Alternative Limit: April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2030.

What this estimate hides is the condition that this alternative $\text{SO}_2$ limit will be withdrawn if Sasol fails to comply with the MES for other pollutants, specifically particulate matter (PM) and oxides of nitrogen ($\text{NO}_x$), by the March 31, 2025 deadline. The company has already committed significant capital, spending over R7 billion in the past year (as of July 2023) on curbing emissions at its Secunda, Sasolburg, and Natref plants, but the $\text{SO}_2$ challenge remains the central legal and financial threat.

Navigating international trade laws and sanctions affecting global chemical sales

Operating a global chemicals business means constantly navigating a complex and shifting web of international trade laws, export controls, and sanctions. For a company with significant international chemicals sales, especially in the US and Eurasia, this is a non-negotiable compliance area.

The legal and geopolitical environment directly impacted Sasol's Fiscal Year 2025 outlook. For instance, the uncertainty surrounding ongoing global tariff disputes, including US government changes to import tariffs announced in April 2025, forced a revision in guidance. The company's full-year outlook for International Chemicals sales volumes was revised to the lower end of the previous guidance, indicating a potential 4-8% decrease compared to FY24.

Sasol's Code of Conduct explicitly requires adherence to:

• Trade controls and international sanctions laws.
• Anti-bribery and anti-corruption laws.
• Competition (antitrust) laws.

The company maintains policies to ensure that its transactions, including those with suppliers, comply with sanctions imposed by authorities like the United Nations, European Union, and the US Government. You have to be defintely vigilant here; one misstep on a sanctioned entity can trigger massive fines and reputational damage from US regulators.

Adherence to evolving corporate governance and anti-corruption legislation

As a dual-listed entity on both the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Sasol is subject to two distinct, stringent regulatory regimes. This dual listing is a major driver of its corporate governance structure, forcing it to comply with both the South African Companies Act and the US Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX).

The Board confirmed its satisfaction that it fulfilled all its duties and obligations in the 2025 financial year, which is a critical statement for investors. The focus on anti-corruption is perpetual, particularly in jurisdictions where Sasol operates, such as Mozambique and South Africa, which have historically presented higher corruption risks. The company's governance framework prioritizes key legal compliance risk areas:

Regulatory Requirement	Jurisdiction	FY2025 Compliance Focus
South African Companies Act	South Africa (JSE)	Director duties, financial reporting, shareholder rights.
Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX)	United States (NYSE)	Internal financial controls and reporting accuracy.
Anti-Bribery and Anti-Corruption Laws	Global	Due diligence on third parties, whistle-blower protection.

The robust framework is there, but the real test is consistent enforcement of its Code of Conduct across all global subsidiaries, which is where most anti-corruption breaches occur.

Complex permitting and licensing for new energy projects, like gas exploration

The legal and regulatory environment for new energy projects, especially cross-border gas exploration and production, is notoriously complex. Sasol's strategic focus on natural gas, particularly in Mozambique, is heavily dependent on securing and maintaining long-term licenses and production agreements.

The company's key development is the Mozambique Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) project, which focuses on the Inhassoro, Temane, and Pande gas fields. This project, with a committed investment of approximately \$1 billion, was targeted to be activated by September 2025. The purpose is two-fold: to supply gas to the 450-megawatt Central Térmica de Temane (CTT) power plant in Mozambique and to export the balance to South Africa via the existing ROMPCO pipeline.

The permitting challenge is amplified by the trans-boundary nature of the project and the need to manage the decline of the mature Pande and Temane fields. Beginning mid-2026, Sasol is projected to reduce gas exports to South Africa as it redirects volumes to downstream Mozambique facilities, which creates a legal and contractual supply gap risk for its South African industrial customers. At full capacity, the PSA fields are expected to yield 53 million megajoules of natural gas annually and 4,000 barrels of light oil per day, but hitting these production targets hinges on flawless execution of the permitting and licensing schedule.

Sasol Limited (SSL) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Sasol targets a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, requiring massive capital outlay.

You're watching Sasol's decarbonization strategy closely, and the big takeaway from their May 2025 Capital Markets Day is a pivot: the 30% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 (off a 2017 baseline) is still their firm target, but the capital required has been drastically cut. They've announced a dramatic 70% reduction in the associated capital expenditure (CapEx) budget.

The original plan called for a massive outlay of between R15 billion and R25 billion in aggregate transformation capital up to 2030. The revised roadmap, however, now projects an investment of only between R4 billion and R7 billion on emission-reduction projects over the coming five years. This is a huge shift, achieved primarily by abandoning capital-intensive solutions like coal fines briquetting and repurposing assets, such as converting the Twistdraai export coal plant into a 10-million-ton-a-year destoning operation to improve coal quality at Secunda Operations.

The revised strategy leans heavily on renewable energy procurement, increasing the target from 1.2 GW to 2 GW, with 575 MW already secured through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). That's a smart move to cut costs. Here's the quick math on the CapEx change:

Metric	Original 2030 Roadmap (2021)	Revised 2030 Roadmap (May 2025)
GHG Reduction Target	30% (Scope 1 & 2)	30% (Scope 1 & 2)
Aggregate CapEx (to 2030)	R15 billion - R25 billion	R4 billion - R7 billion
Renewable Energy Target	1.2 GW	2 GW
CapEx Reduction	-	~70% cut

The increasing cost of the South African carbon tax directly hits the bottom line.

The South African carbon tax has been a major financial risk, but recent legislative changes have provided significant near-term relief. The National Treasury's March 2025 Budget Review confirmed a crucial concession: the 60% basic tax-free allowance will be retained until at least the end of 2030. This retention, instead of the previously proposed step-down starting in 2026, offers Sasol greater investment certainty and a slower ramp-up of costs.

Still, the tax is a real cost. Sasol's carbon tax bill was recently reported at approximately R1.8 billion, which is relatively small for a company that emits around 64,000 kilotons of CO2 annually. To manage this liability, the company is increasingly relying on carbon credits. For the fiscal year ended June 2025, Sasol's carbon credit purchases surged to R723 million, a 25% increase year-on-year. This flexibility is key, but it defintely delays the deep, structural decarbonization needed.

Water scarcity and management are critical issues for its large-scale operations.

Water is a critical, high-risk factor, especially since 88% of Sasol's total water use is concentrated in its South African operations, which are located in water-stressed regions like the Upper Vaal Catchment. Sasolburg Operations (SO) has a specific, measurable target for the 2025 fiscal year.

Their focus is on reducing fresh-water dependence by maximizing re-use and effluent use. This is a must-do in a country facing a major water crisis.

• Reduce fresh-water usage at Sasolburg by 7.5% by the end of 2025 (FY21 baseline).
• The maximum target consumption for Sasolburg is 50 ML/day.
• The average water intensity for Sasolburg in FY24 was 11.72 $m^3/t$ (cubic meters of water per ton of total production), which was above the FY25 target, showing a challenge in meeting efficiency goals due to increased steam demands.

Pressure from investors to divest from high-carbon assets and accelerate the energy transition.

Investors want a clearer, faster path away from high-carbon assets, and they want to see capital discipline. Sasol is responding through a dual strategy: optimizing its existing high-carbon base while selectively divesting non-core, carbon-intensive assets.

The company's 2025 strategy update was a conscious effort to balance investor demands for a 'just transition' with the financial reality of its coal-to-liquids (CTL) assets. They are increasing coal output at Secunda to over 7.4 million tonnes to improve plant stability and profitability, which is a near-term counter-intuitive move but one that improves cash flow for long-term transition funding.

To show commitment to portfolio simplification and margin improvement, which is a form of 'soft' divestment pressure response, Sasol has been actively optimizing its International Chemicals portfolio:

• Exited the US Phenolics business in March 2025.
• Completed clean-up activities for the Alkylphenol plant in Marl, Germany, and the Guerbet plant in Lake Charles, US.
• Stopped production at the Phenolics plants in Texas, US, and the HF LAB plant in Augusta, Italy, in Q1 FY26 (ending September 2025).

These actions cut complexity and capital risk, which is what the market is defintely demanding.