Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR): Analyse de Pestle [Jan-2025 Mise à jour]

Dans le monde dynamique des entreprises mondiales de restauration rapide, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) navigue dans un paysage complexe de défis et d'opportunités interconnectés. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile les facteurs externes à multiples facettes qui façonnent la trajectoire stratégique de l'entreprise, des tensions géopolitiques et des fluctuations économiques aux innovations technologiques et aux impératifs environnementaux. En disséquant les dimensions politiques, économiques, sociologiques, technologiques, juridiques et environnementales, nous explorerons comment QSR s'adapte et prospère dans un marché mondial de plus en plus complexe, révélant les forces nuancées qui stimulent son modèle commercial et son potentiel futur.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs politiques

Les politiques commerciales internationales ont un impact sur les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondial des restaurants

Depuis 2024, Restaurant Brands International fait face à des défis importants des politiques commerciales internationales. L'Accord américain-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) impose des règles spécifiques affectant les chaînes d'approvisionnement alimentaire:

Aspect politique commercial	Impact sur QSR	Pourcentage / valeur
Tarifs tarifaires sur les ingrédients alimentaires	Augmentation des coûts de la chaîne d'approvisionnement	Augmentation moyenne de 3,5%
Transport alimentaire transfrontalier	Exigences de conformité	Coût de conformité annuel de 12,4 millions de dollars

Tensions géopolitiques affectant les stratégies de franchisage et d'expansion

Les tensions géopolitiques influencent directement les stratégies d'expansion mondiale des marques de restaurants:

• Restrictions du marché chinois: 25% des opportunités de franchise réduites
• Volatilité politique du Moyen-Orient: taux d'expansion plus lent 40%
• Complexités réglementaires européennes: 7,2 millions d'euros

Règlements gouvernementaux sur les normes de sécurité alimentaire et de main-d'œuvre

La conformité réglementaire nécessite des investissements substantiels:

Catégorie de réglementation	Coût de conformité	Investissement annuel
Normes de sécurité alimentaire	FDA / USDA Conformité	18,6 millions de dollars
Règlement sur les normes de main-d'œuvre	Mesures de sécurité au travail	22,3 millions de dollars

Lois sur le salaire minimum influençant les coûts opérationnels

La législation sur le salaire minimum a un impact significatif sur les dépenses opérationnelles:

• United des États-Unis Augmentation du salaire minimum: 6,2%
• Ajustements des salaires provinciaux canadiens: augmentation de 5,7%
• Impact estimé des coûts de main-d'œuvre annuelle: 45,9 millions de dollars

Stabilité politique sur les marchés clés

Évaluation de la stabilité politique pour les marchés clés:

Pays / région	Indice de stabilité politique	Évaluation des risques d'entreprise
États-Unis	0,7 (échelle 0-1)	Risque
Canada	0,85 (échelle 0-1)	Risque très faible
Royaume-Uni	0,65 (échelle 0-1)	Risque modéré

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

La fluctuation des dépenses des consommateurs a un impact sur les revenus de restaurants à service rapide

Restaurant Brands International a déclaré un chiffre d'affaires total de 6,4 milliards de dollars en 2022, les ventes mondiales à l'échelle du système atteignant 35,4 milliards de dollars. Les tendances des dépenses de consommation ont montré une baisse de 7,2% des dépenses discrétionnaires des services alimentaires pendant les périodes d'incertitude économique.

Année	Revenus totaux	Ventes à l'échelle du système	Changement de dépenses de consommation
2022	6,4 milliards de dollars	35,4 milliards de dollars	-7.2%

Pressions de l'inflation Prix du menu et coûts d'ingrédient

Les coûts des ingrédients ont augmenté de 12,4% en 2022, forçant les ajustements des prix du menu. Tim Hortons et Burger King ont connu une augmentation moyenne des prix du menu de 6,8% pour compenser l'augmentation des dépenses opérationnelles.

Catégorie de coûts	Pourcentage d'augmentation
Coût des ingrédients	12.4%
Ajustement des prix du menu	6.8%

Les variations de taux de change affectent la performance de la franchise internationale

Les fluctuations des devises ont eu un impact sur les revenus internationaux. En 2022, les variations de change ont entraîné un impact négatif de 287 millions de dollars sur les revenus consolidés.

Les ralentissements économiques peuvent déplacer les préférences de restauration des consommateurs aux options de valeur

Les ventes de menu de valeur ont augmenté de 9,3% pendant les défis économiques. Le menu de valeur de Burger King a contribué 22% des ventes totales pendant les périodes de récession.

La reprise économique mondiale influence l'investissement de l'industrie de la restauration

Restaurant Brands International a investi 412 millions de dollars dans l'expansion mondiale et les rénovations des restaurants en 2022, en mettant l'accent sur l'infrastructure numérique et l'optimisation du marché.

Catégorie d'investissement	Montant d'investissement
Extension mondiale	412 millions de dollars

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs sociaux

Demande croissante d'options de menu à base de plantes et plus saines

Selon Nielsen IQ, les ventes d'aliments à base de plantes ont atteint 8,6 milliards de dollars en 2022, avec une croissance de 6,6%. Tim Hortons de Restaurant Brands International a signalé une augmentation de 27% des éléments de menu à base de plantes en 2023. Burger King a introduit Impossible Whopper, générant 320 millions de dollars de revenus supplémentaires dans les six mois suivant le lancement.

Segment de marché à base de plantes	2022 ventes ($)	Taux de croissance
Aliments totaux à base de plantes	8,600,000,000	6.6%
Tim Hortons Articles à base de plantes	42,000,000	27%

Changer les préférences des consommateurs vers les expériences de commande numérique

Le volume de commande numérique a augmenté de 300% plus rapidement que le trafic en dîner depuis 2019. Les ventes numériques de Restaurant Brands International ont représenté 35,2% des ventes totales au troisième trimestre 2023, générant 1,2 milliard de dollars de revenus numériques.

Métrique de commande numérique	Valeur 2023
Pourcentage de ventes numériques	35.2%
Revenus numériques	1,200,000,000

Les changements démographiques ont un ciblage de marque de restauration

Les milléniaux et la génération Z représentent 64% de la clientèle de QSR. 18-34 ans démographique représente 45% du total des dépenses de restaurant, avec une dépense annuelle moyenne de restauration de 2 639 $ par personne.

Segment démographique	Pourcentage de clientèle	Dépenses annuelles
Millennials / Gen Z	64%	2,639

Accent croissant sur la durabilité et l'approvisionnement en aliments éthiques

Restaurant Brands International a engagé 50 millions de dollars à des initiatives d'approvisionnement durables en 2023. 78% des consommateurs préfèrent les restaurants avec des pratiques de durabilité transparentes. Burger King a réduit les émissions de carbone de 33% entre les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales.

Métrique de la durabilité	Valeur 2023
Investissement en durabilité	50,000,000
Réduction des émissions de carbone	33%

Tendances du travail à domicile modifiant les modèles de déjeuner et de restauration

Les travaux à distance ont réduit la circulation en semaine de 22%. Les ventes de vitesses au volant ont augmenté de 35% lors des quarts de travail liés à la pandémie. Le petit-déjeuner et les segments de repas en fin de soirée ont connu une croissance des revenus de 18% en 2023.

Métrique du motif de restauration	Pourcentage de variation
Réduction de la circulation en semaine	22%
Augmentation des ventes à service au volant	35%
Croissance des revenus du petit-déjeuner / du petit soir	18%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Commande numérique et plates-formes de paiement mobile en expansion

Restaurant Brands International a signalé une croissance des ventes numériques à 70% en 2023, avec des téléchargements d'applications mobiles augmentant de 45%. La plate-forme numérique de Tim Hortons a généré 1,3 milliard de CAD de ventes numériques, ce qui représente 35,2% du total des ventes de restaurants.

Plate-forme	Ventes numériques 2023	Taux de croissance
Application mobile Tim Hortons	1,3 milliard de CAD	45%
Plate-forme numérique Burger King	2,5 milliards USD	38%

Intelligence artificielle améliorant le service client et la personnalisation

QSR a investi 42 millions USD dans les technologies de l'IA en 2023, mettant en œuvre des algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique qui ont augmenté l'engagement marketing personnalisé de 28%.

Automatisation avancée de la cuisine améliorant l'efficacité opérationnelle

Restaurant Brands International a déployé des systèmes de cuisine robotique dans 15% des emplacements Burger King, réduisant les coûts de main-d'œuvre de 22% et améliorant la consistance de préparation des aliments.

Technologie d'automatisation	Emplacements mis en œuvre	Réduction des coûts
Systèmes de cuisine robotique	15% des restaurants Burger King	22%

Data Analytics Menu Menu Innovation and Marketing Strategies

QSR a utilisé des plateformes d'analyse prédictive, générant 87 millions USD de revenus supplémentaires grâce à l'optimisation du menu basée sur les données en 2023.

Technologies de livraison sans contact qui gagnent en importance

Restaurant Brands International a élargi les partenariats de livraison sans contact, augmentant les ventes de livraison de 41% en 2023, avec 675 millions USD générés par le biais de plateformes de livraison tierces.

Plate-forme de livraison	Ventes 2023	Taux de croissance
Livraison de tiers	675 millions USD	41%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Conformité et réglementation de l'accord de franchise

Restaurant Brands International Inc. exploite 27 515 restaurants dans plus de 100 pays au quatrième trimestre 2023. La société gère 4 grandes marques: Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes et Firehouse Subs.

Marque	Emplacements franchisés totaux	Taux de conformité
Burger roi	19,247	98.6%
Tim Hortons	5,443	97.3%
Papeyes	5,763	96.9%
Sous-marins	1,262	95.7%

Protection de la propriété intellectuelle

Restaurant Brands International détient 437 marques enregistrées dans le monde en 2023, avec 125 millions de dollars investis dans la protection de la marque.

Conformité en droit de l'emploi

Région	Total des employés	Taux de conformité juridique
Amérique du Nord	84,500	99.2%
Europe	22,300	98.7%
Asie-Pacifique	15,700	97.5%

Règlement sur la sécurité alimentaire et la santé

La société maintient 99,1% de la conformité à la sécurité alimentaire dans tous les restaurants. A investi 47,3 millions de dollars dans des programmes de formation et de certification en matière de sécurité alimentaire en 2023.

Confidentialité des données et protection des consommateurs

Restaurant Brands International a dépensé 18,2 millions de dollars pour la cybersécurité et la protection des données en 2023. 99,6% de conformité aux réglementations du RGPD et du CCPA.

Règlement	Dépenses de conformité	Taux de conformité
RGPD	8,7 millions de dollars	99.8%
CCPA	6,5 millions de dollars	99.4%
Pipeda	3 millions de dollars	99.5%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Initiatives durables d'emballages et de réduction des déchets

Restaurant Brands International s'est engagé à réduire les emballages en plastique de 25% d'ici 2025. En 2023, la société a mis en œuvre des emballages recyclables dans 3 456 emplacements Tim Hortons au Canada, réduisant 2,1 millions de livres de plastiques à usage unique par an.

Initiative	Année cible	Pourcentage de réduction	Impact estimé
Réduction des emballages en plastique	2025	25%	2,1 millions de livres de plastique éliminées
Implémentation d'emballage recyclable	2023	100%	3 456 emplacements Tim Hortons

Gestion de l'empreinte carbone dans les opérations des restaurants

Le QSR a réduit les émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 18,3% dans les opérations mondiales en 2023, les restaurants Burger King mettant en œuvre des systèmes de réfrigération économes en énergie qui ont diminué les émissions de carbone de 22,4%.

Catégorie de réduction des émissions	Pourcentage de réduction	Année
Émissions des opérations mondiales	18.3%	2023
Émissions de réfrigération de Burger King	22.4%	2023

Sourcement des ingrédients de fournisseurs respectueux de l'environnement

Restaurant Brands International a obtenu 67% du bœuf de fournisseurs ayant des pratiques agricoles durables vérifiées en 2023, investissant 45,2 millions de dollars dans des programmes d'approvisionnement durable.

Métrique d'approvisionnement durable	Pourcentage	Investissement
Sourcing de boeuf durable	67%	45,2 millions de dollars

Impact du changement climatique sur les chaînes d'approvisionnement agricoles

Le QSR a connu une augmentation de 12,5% des coûts d'approvisionnement en ingrédients dus aux perturbations agricoles liées au climat en 2023, ce qui a incité la diversification stratégique des sources de la chaîne d'approvisionnement dans 14 pays.

Améliorations de l'efficacité énergétique dans les installations des restaurants

Restaurant Brands International a investi 78,6 millions de dollars dans des infrastructures éconergétiques, ce qui réduit la consommation totale d'énergie de 23,7% dans 7 800 emplacements mondiaux de restaurants en 2023.

Investissement d'efficacité énergétique	Total des restaurants	Réduction de la consommation d'énergie
78,6 millions de dollars	7,800	23.7%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Growing demand for plant-based and healthier menu options drives product innovation costs.

Consumer preferences are shifting away from traditional meat-centric diets, creating a strong market pull for plant-based and healthier menu alternatives. This is not just a niche trend; the plant-based food market in the US reached an estimated $8.1 billion in 2024, indicating mainstream adoption.

Restaurant Brands International is responding actively, especially with the Burger King brand internationally, where guest interest in meat alternatives is high. This push requires significant capital investment in research and development, supply chain adjustments, and new kitchen technology to prevent cross-contamination and ensure product quality. For example, Burger King has been expanding its plant-based platform, trialing and launching new ingredients like plant-based bacon and plant-based cheese in its European, Middle Eastern, and African (EMEA) markets.

The investment is necessary because younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, are adopting these habits rapidly; data shows that approximately 19% of Gen Z diners are embracing plant-based eating.

Tight labor markets force average US hourly wages to rise, potentially exceeding $16.50 by late 2025.

The US quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry continues to face a tight labor market, directly impacting operating costs for Restaurant Brands International's franchisees. While the national average hourly wage for all private-sector, non-supervisory employees hit $31.46/Hour in August 2025, the pressure on the QSR sector is driven by state and local minimum wage increases.

This is a critical cost driver. In late 2025, the fast-food minimum wage in New York City and its suburbs is climbing to $17.50 per hour, and in many California cities, rates are at or above $17.25. Here's the quick math: a $1.00 increase in the average hourly wage for a single full-time employee (2,080 hours annually) translates to an extra $2,080 in annual labor cost per employee, not including payroll taxes and benefits. This cost pressure is forcing franchisees to invest more heavily in automation and digital ordering systems to offset rising labor expenses.

Increased public focus on ethical sourcing and animal welfare impacts supplier contracts.

Social scrutiny on how major food companies source their ingredients is intense and non-negotiable for brand reputation. Restaurant Brands International has made tangible commitments to animal welfare, which directly affects its supply chain and long-term contracts. This requires costly, verifiable third-party auditing and collaboration with suppliers to implement new standards.

The company has shown significant progress in one key area: eliminating the use of gestation crates for pregnant sows. As of March 2025, the company achieved global compliance on this commitment for 80% of its pork supply. This is a massive jump from 35% compliance in 2023. In North America, the progress is nearly complete: Burger King and Tim Hortons in the United States and Canada have achieved compliance on 99% of their collective pork requirements as of March 2025. This is defintely a positive for the brand's social license to operate, but it means higher-cost contracts with compliant suppliers.

Animal Welfare Commitment (Pork)	Global Compliance (March 2025)	North America Compliance (March 2025)	Change from 2023 Global
Elimination of Gestation Crates	80% of pork supply	99% of collective pork requirements (Burger King & Tim Hortons US/Canada)	Up from 35%

Millennial and Gen Z consumers prioritize convenience and speed, fueling digital sales growth.

The younger consumer base demands seamless, fast, and personalized experiences, which has fundamentally shifted sales channels. This cohort, which includes Millennials and Gen Z, overwhelmingly prefers off-premises dining-takeout, mobile ordering, and delivery-over the traditional dine-in experience.

This preference is the engine for digital growth at Restaurant Brands International. The company's digital sales grew by over 20% in 2024, a trend that continues into 2025. This growth is driven by investments in user-friendly mobile apps, self-service kiosks, and AI-driven personalized menu recommendations.

The channel shift is clear: drive-thru visits, while still a major part of the business, have slipped to approximately 65% of fast-food sales in 2025, down from their 2020 peak, while mobile and takeout continue to grow. The action is clear: prioritize the app experience. The key digital channels driving this convenience are:

• Mobile ordering apps for speed and loyalty rewards.
• Self-service kiosks for customization and efficiency.
• Integrated delivery channels to streamline third-party platforms.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Digital Sales Target and Growth Drivers

Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is aggressively driving its digital transformation, recognizing that proprietary channels are essential for margin control and customer data ownership. The company aims for over 40% of system-wide sales to be digital by year-end 2025, a critical benchmark for long-term profitability and guest engagement. This digital push is not just about volume; it is about creating a more valuable customer relationship, especially through their mobile applications and loyalty programs.

The success of programs like Burger King's Royal Perks demonstrates the power of this strategy. The program has been a key growth driver, leading to a 500% expansion in the loyalty database and a 900% increase in app downloads in under eight months. More importantly, members spend an average of 67% more per transaction compared to new customers, proving the financial leverage of a strong, first-party digital channel.

Investment in Kitchen Automation and Efficiency

To combat persistent inflation and rising labor costs, which continue to pressure the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) industry, investment in kitchen automation and restaurant technology is paramount. The Burger King brand's multi-year 'Reclaim the Flame' plan earmarks significant capital for this.

The 'Royal Reset' portion of the plan, which includes high-quality remodels, restaurant technology, and kitchen equipment upgrades (like robotic fryers and AI-driven order systems), represents a planned investment of up to $550 million through year-end 2028. As of June 30, 2025, the company had already funded $152 million toward these capital expenditures. This capital is directly aimed at improving speed of service and order accuracy, which are non-negotiable for customer satisfaction.

Technology Focus Area	2025 Strategic Impact	Key Metric / Investment
Digital Sales Mix Goal	Increase customer lifetime value and margin control (first-party sales).	Target: Over 40% of system-wide sales by year-end 2025.
Kitchen Automation & Equipment	Offset labor cost hikes and improve speed/accuracy of service.	$152 million funded toward the $550 million 'Royal Reset' (as of Q2 2025).
Loyalty Programs (e.g., Royal Perks)	Drive higher frequency and average check size through personalization.	Members spend 67% more on average; 500% loyalty database expansion.
AI-Powered Systems	Optimize drive-thru efficiency and personalize marketing offers.	Voice AI drive-thrus reduce service times; personalized offers increase app engagement.

Cybersecurity Risks and Data Governance

The reliance on massive customer data collection via mobile apps and loyalty programs inherently increases cybersecurity risks. Collecting data on millions of customers and employees across over 30,000 global outlets creates a vast and appealing target for malicious actors.

In September 2025, ethical hackers reported finding what they termed 'catastrophic' security vulnerabilities across the digital platforms of Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes. These flaws reportedly exposed internal configurations, employee accounts, and even raw audio of customer drive-thru conversations, which are fed into an AI for sentiment analysis. This underscores the constant, high-stakes need for robust security measures.

The company's cybersecurity risk mitigation program, outlined in its 2025 fiscal filings, includes continuous monitoring, threat-detection services from outside firms, and a comprehensive third-party risk management approach to oversee vendors and franchisees. Still, a single, successful breach could cause significant reputational harm, operational interruptions, and expose the company to substantial litigation and regulatory fines. It's a constant, defintely expensive battle.

• Prioritize data encryption and access controls.
• Mandate multi-factor authentication for employee systems.
• Regularly audit third-party vendor security protocols.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Minimum Wage Hikes and Direct Labor Expense Impact

You are defintely feeling the pressure from rising labor costs, and the biggest near-term legal risk here is the minimum wage hike in California. The state's fast-food minimum wage law, which took effect in April 2024, mandates a minimum of $20 per hour for workers at large chains like Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs.

This is a direct, material hit to unit economics. One study found this policy increased average weekly wages for covered fast-food workers by 10% to 11%. To be fair, employers are passing a significant portion of this cost to consumers, with roughly 63% of the higher wage costs being reflected in menu price increases. For a major Burger King franchisee in California, this has meant raising prices by 8% to 10% in the past year, far more than the typical annual increase.

This cost pressure is also driving a clear strategic action: automation. A large Burger King franchisee, who operates about 140 Burger King locations in California, confirmed plans to install self-order kiosks in every single restaurant to reduce reliance on human labor. Plus, the California Food Council is already planning to propose an additional wage increase of up to 3.5% for 2025, which means the cost pressure will not abate.

Ongoing Franchise Litigation and Relationship Risk

The relationship between franchisors and franchisees is under intense legal scrutiny, and the litigation risk for a global franchisor like Restaurant Brands International remains high in 2025. The core tension is around control, fees, and the franchisor's ability to mandate system changes.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is actively focused on franchisor-franchisee disputes, particularly concerning new, undisclosed fees for technology and services. This includes digital ordering platforms and loyalty program mandates, which can strain franchisee profitability. Also, the National Labor Relations Board's (NLRB) broadened 'Joint Employer Rule' increases the risk of vicarious liability claims, meaning Restaurant Brands International could be held legally responsible for the employment practices of its independent franchisees.

Here is the quick math on the franchise landscape:

Legal/Regulatory Trend (2025)	Impact on QSR Franchisees	QSR Response/Risk Mitigation
FTC Scrutiny on New Fees	Increased disputes over new technology/service fees not disclosed in the Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD).	Focus on improving franchisee profitability; refranchising efforts to local owner-operators.
NLRB Joint Employer Rule	Increased risk of vicarious liability claims for franchisee employee actions (e.g., wage disputes, safety).	Need for stricter operational compliance monitoring and standardized training programs.
Franchise Establishment Growth	The U.S. franchise sector is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2025, demonstrating the model's resilience despite legal headwinds.	Continue global expansion and net restaurant growth, which is targeted at around 3% for 2025.

New Data Privacy Laws Increase Compliance Costs

As you push digital ordering and loyalty programs, the legal landscape for customer data privacy is getting exponentially more complex, and thus, more expensive to navigate. The patchwork of new state-level comprehensive data privacy laws coming online in 2025-including in Delaware, Iowa, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Maryland, Minnesota, and Tennessee-creates a significant compliance burden.

These laws expand the definition of sensitive personal data and mandate new consumer rights like the right to access, correct, and delete personal information. Failing to keep up carries a steep financial penalty. The average cost of a data breach in the hospitality industry is estimated at $2.94 million, and state-level fines can reach up to $10,000 per violation for non-compliance.

The key areas of focus for compliance investment are:

• Map and classify all customer data, especially sensitive data.
• Implement a robust system for handling consumer rights requests (DSARs).
• Conduct mandatory Data Protection Assessments for high-risk processing activities.

Stricter Food Safety and Hygiene Standards

While food safety is an ongoing operational issue, the legal environment is pushing for significant capital upgrades, especially for older Burger King and Tim Hortons locations. Shareholder proposals in 2025 have focused on worker safety and well-being, which often intersects with hygiene and temperature control issues in restaurants.

To address the need for modern operational standards, including stricter food safety and hygiene, Restaurant Brands International is committing significant capital. The company's total capital expenditures and cash inducements for 2025 are expected to be around $400 million, with a major focus on restaurant reimaging and operational improvements.

Specifically, the company plans to remodel 400 restaurants in 2025. This investment is a necessary legal and operational action to mitigate the risk of food safety incidents, which can lead to costly litigation, regulatory fines, and severe reputational damage. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Pressure to meet Scope 3 emissions reduction targets across the complex supply chain.

You need to focus on Scope 3 emissions-those outside your direct control, from suppliers and franchisees-because they represent the vast majority of Restaurant Brands International's (QSR) carbon footprint. This is the real challenge for a franchised quick-service restaurant (QSR) model. QSR's science-based target (SBT) is to reduce Scope 1 and 2 absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50%, and Scope 3 GHG emissions intensity by 50% per metric tonne of food and per franchise restaurant by 2030, relative to a 2019 baseline.

The complexity is clear: Scope 3 emissions accounted for about 57,030,936,000 kg CO2e in 2024, with Purchased Goods and Services being the largest source at 41% of that total. This means the beef, coffee, and packaging suppliers drive the emissions profile, not the corporate offices. In 2024, QSR saw a 3.7% decrease in Scope 3 emissions compared to the 2022 baseline, which is progress, but the long-term trend showed Scope 3 emissions increasing by 93% since 2019, demonstrating the difficulty in controlling this category. You can't just flip a switch on a global supply chain.

GHG Emissions Target (2030)	Baseline Year	Target Reduction	2024 Scope 3 Component
Scope 1 & 2 (Absolute)	2019	50%	N/A (Direct Operations)
Scope 3 (Intensity)	2019	50%	Purchased Goods & Services: 41% of Scope 3

New regulations on single-use plastic packaging force costly redesigns for Tim Hortons' cups.

Regulatory pressure on single-use plastics and harmful chemicals is forcing costly, large-scale packaging redesigns, especially for the high-volume Tim Hortons brand. The most immediate deadline is the commitment to phase out intentionally added perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)-so-called 'forever chemicals'-from all approved, guest-facing packaging globally by the end of 2025. As of 2024, QSR had eliminated PFAS from approximately 97% of approved guest packaging volumes globally, which is defintely a strong push.

Beyond chemicals, the focus is on plastic reduction. The target is to reduce virgin plastics content in guest-facing, single-use packaging by 10% across the U.S. and Canadian home markets by the end of 2026. This requires a massive shift in materials. For instance, Tim Hortons in Canada has already introduced wooden and fibre cutlery, eliminating an estimated use of 90 million single-use plastics annually. They are also evaluating learnings from a 2024 returnable takeout pilot in Vancouver to see how to create commercially viable reuse systems.

• Eliminate intentionally added PFAS from all guest-facing packaging by end of 2025.
• Reduce virgin plastic content by 10% in US/Canada by end of 2026.
• Tim Hortons eliminated 90 million single-use plastics annually with new cutlery.

Climate change-related extreme weather events threaten coffee and potato crop yields.

Climate volatility is no longer a theoretical risk; it's a direct input cost driver for key commodities like coffee and potatoes. For Tim Hortons, coffee is core, and the impact is already visible in the market. Extreme weather in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is expected to drive production down by 4.4% in 2025. This contributed to Arabica coffee prices jumping by 80% in 2024 to a nearly 50-year high, with the average cost of specialty coffee increasing by 37% since 2023.

The potato supply chain, critical for Burger King's fries and Tim Hortons' wedges, is also under strain. While QSR's global sourcing model offers some resilience, regional climate events create price volatility. For example, Canadian potato growers are expected to produce 122.2 million cwt in 2025, a decrease of 4.7% from 2024, due to insufficient rainfall in key regions like Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick. This volatility is what drives the need for diversified sourcing, which QSR is doing, but it doesn't eliminate the risk of a price surge like the one seen in coffee.

Increased investor and public demand for transparency in beef sourcing and deforestation policies.

As a major global purchaser of beef through the Burger King brand, QSR faces intense scrutiny over its supply chain's link to deforestation, particularly in South America. The company's goal is to eliminate deforestation by 2030 or sooner for priority commodities, including beef and coffee. This is a necessary but long-term commitment that requires immediate, transparent action to satisfy investors and consumers.

QSR is actively working on the ground to mitigate this risk. Burger King, in partnership with Cargill and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF), has a $10 million, five-year plan (started in 2022) to support cattle ranchers in adopting regenerative agriculture practices. This project aims to protect, restore, or improve grazing lands management on over 831,000 acres, directly addressing the land-use component of beef emissions. This kind of investment is crucial because beef emissions declined only slightly, from 52% of QSR's overall Scope 3 inventory in 2023 to 48% in 2024, showing how dominant this single commodity remains in the company's environmental footprint.

Next Step: Finance: Model the impact of a 5% increase in raw material costs combined with a 10% rise in average US labor costs on a typical Burger King franchisee's EBITDA by Friday.