Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

En el mundo dinámico de las empresas globales de comida rápida, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) navega por un complejo panorama de desafíos y oportunidades interconectados. Este análisis integral de la mano presenta los factores externos multifacéticos que dan forma a la trayectoria estratégica de la compañía, desde tensiones geopolíticas y fluctuaciones económicas hasta innovaciones tecnológicas e imperativas ambientales. Al diseccionar las dimensiones políticas, económicas, sociológicas, tecnológicas, legales y ambientales, exploraremos cómo QSR se adapta y prospera en un mercado global cada vez más intrincado, revelando las fuerzas matizadas que impulsan su modelo de negocio y potencial futuro.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

Las políticas de comercio internacional impactan las cadenas de suministro de restaurantes globales

A partir de 2024, Restaurant Brands International enfrenta desafíos importantes de las políticas de comercio internacional. El Acuerdo de los Estados Unidos-México-Canadá (USMCA) impone reglas específicas que afectan las cadenas de suministro de alimentos:

Aspecto de la política comercial	Impacto en QSR	Porcentaje/valor
Tarifas arancelas en ingredientes alimentarios	Mayores costos de la cadena de suministro	Aumento promedio de 3.5%
Transporte de alimentos transfronterizo	Requisitos de cumplimiento	Costo de cumplimiento anual de $ 12.4 millones

Tensiones geopolíticas que afectan las estrategias de franquicia y expansión

Las tensiones geopolíticas influyen directamente en las estrategias de expansión global de las marcas de restaurantes internacionales:

• Restricciones del mercado de China: 25% de oportunidades de franquicia reducida
• Volatilidad política de Medio Oriente: tasa de expansión más lenta del 40%
• Complejidades regulatorias europeas: € 7.2 millones Costos de entrada al mercado adicionales

Regulaciones gubernamentales sobre la seguridad alimentaria y los estándares laborales

El cumplimiento regulatorio requiere inversiones sustanciales:

Categoría regulatoria	Costo de cumplimiento	Inversión anual
Normas de seguridad alimentaria	Cumplimiento de la FDA/USDA	$ 18.6 millones
Regulaciones estándar laborales	Medidas de seguridad en el lugar de trabajo	$ 22.3 millones

Leyes de salario mínimo que influyen en los costos operativos

La legislación de salario mínimo afecta significativamente los gastos operativos:

• Aumento del salario mínimo promedio de los Estados Unidos: 6.2%
• Ajustes salariales provinciales canadienses: aumento del 5.7%
• Impacto estimado de costo laboral anual: $ 45.9 millones

Estabilidad política en mercados clave

Evaluación de estabilidad política para mercados clave:

País/región	Índice de estabilidad política	Calificación de riesgo comercial
Estados Unidos	0.7 (escala 0-1)	Bajo riesgo
Canadá	0.85 (escala 0-1)	Muy bajo riesgo
Reino Unido	0.65 (escala 0-1)	Riesgo moderado

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

Fluctuando el gasto del consumidor impacta los ingresos de los restaurantes de servicio rápido

Restaurant Brands International reportó ingresos totales de $ 6.4 mil millones en 2022, con ventas globales en todo el sistema que alcanzan los $ 35.4 mil millones. Las tendencias de gasto del consumidor mostraron una disminución del 7.2% en el gasto discrecional en servicio de alimentos durante los períodos de incertidumbre económica.

Año	Ingresos totales	Ventas de todo el sistema	Cambio de gasto del consumidor
2022	$ 6.4 mil millones	$ 35.4 mil millones	-7.2%

Presiones de inflación Precios del menú y costos de ingredientes

Los costos de ingredientes aumentaron en un 12,4% en 2022, lo que obliga a los ajustes del precio del menú. Tim Hortons y Burger King experimentaron un aumento promedio del precio del menú del 6.8% para compensar los crecientes gastos operativos.

Categoría de costos	Aumento porcentual
Costos de ingredientes	12.4%
Ajuste del precio del menú	6.8%

Las variaciones del tipo de cambio afectan el rendimiento de la franquicia internacional

Las fluctuaciones monetarias afectaron los ingresos internacionales. En 2022, las variaciones de divisas dieron como resultado un impacto negativo de $ 287 millones en los ingresos consolidados.

Las recesiones económicas pueden cambiar las preferencias gastronómicas de los consumidores para valorar las opciones

Las ventas del menú de valor aumentaron en un 9,3% durante los desafíos económicos. El menú de valor de Burger King contribuyó con el 22% de las ventas totales durante los períodos de recesión.

La recuperación económica global influye en la inversión de la industria de restaurantes

Restaurant Brands International invirtió $ 412 millones en expansión global y renovaciones de restaurantes en 2022, con un enfoque en la infraestructura digital y la optimización del mercado.

Categoría de inversión	Monto de la inversión
Expansión global	$ 412 millones

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

Aumento de la demanda de opciones de menú a base de plantas y más saludables

Según Nielsen IQ, las ventas de alimentos a base de plantas alcanzaron los $ 8.6 mil millones en 2022, con un crecimiento del 6.6%. Tim Hortons de Restaurant Brands International informó un aumento del 27% en los elementos de menú a base de plantas en 2023. Burger King introdujo imposible Whopper, generando $ 320 millones en ingresos adicionales dentro de los seis meses posteriores al lanzamiento.

Segmento de mercado basado en plantas	Ventas 2022 ($)	Índice de crecimiento
Alimentos totales a base de plantas	8,600,000,000	6.6%
Artículos a base de plantas de Tim Hortons	42,000,000	27%

Cambiar las preferencias del consumidor hacia las experiencias de pedido digital

El volumen de pedidos digitales aumentó un 300% más rápido que el tráfico de cena desde 2019. Las ventas digitales de Restaurant Brands International representaron el 35.2% de las ventas totales en el tercer trimestre de 2023, generando $ 1.2 mil millones en ingresos digitales.

Métrica de pedidos digitales	Valor 2023
Porcentaje de ventas digitales	35.2%
Ingreso digital	1,200,000,000

Turnos demográficos Impact Restaurant Brand Direction

Los Millennials y Gen Z representan el 64% de la base de clientes de QSR. 18-34 edad demográfica representa el 45% del gasto total en restaurantes, con un gasto promedio de restaurantes anual de $ 2,639 por persona.

Segmento demográfico	Porcentaje de la base de clientes	Gasto anual
Millennials/Gen Z	64%	2,639

Creciente énfasis en la sostenibilidad y el abastecimiento de alimentos éticos

Restaurant Brands International comprometió $ 50 millones a iniciativas de abastecimiento sostenible en 2023. El 78% de los consumidores prefieren restaurantes con prácticas de sostenibilidad transparentes. Burger King redujo las emisiones de carbono en un 33% en las cadenas de suministro globales.

Métrica de sostenibilidad	Valor 2023
Inversión de sostenibilidad	50,000,000
Reducción de emisiones de carbono	33%

Tendencias de trabajo desde el hogar que alteran los patrones de almuerzo y comedor

Trabajo remoto de trabajo reducido de lunes a viernes en un 22%. Las ventas de drive-thru aumentaron un 35% durante los turnos de trabajo relacionados con la pandemia. El desayuno y los segmentos de comidas nocturnas experimentaron un crecimiento de ingresos del 18% en 2023.

Métrica de patrón de comedor	Cambio porcentual
Reducción del tráfico del almuerzo de lunes a viernes	22%
Aumento de las ventas de thru-thru	35%
Desayuno/crecimiento de los ingresos nocturnos	18%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Se expanden las plataformas de pedidos digitales y de pago móvil

Restaurant Brands International reportó un crecimiento de las ventas digitales del 70% en 2023, con las descargas de aplicaciones móviles que aumentaron en un 45%. La plataforma digital Tim Hortons generó CAD 1.3 mil millones en ventas digitales, que representa el 35.2% de las ventas totales de restaurantes.

Plataforma	Ventas digitales 2023	Índice de crecimiento
Aplicación móvil de Tim Hortons	CAD 1.300 millones	45%
Plataforma digital de Burger King	USD 2.500 millones	38%

Inteligencia artificial que mejora el servicio al cliente y la personalización

QSR invirtió USD 42 millones en tecnologías de IA en 2023, implementando algoritmos de aprendizaje automático que aumentaron la participación personalizada de marketing en un 28%.

Automatización de cocina avanzada Mejora de la eficiencia operativa

Restaurant Brands International desplegaron sistemas de cocina robótica en el 15% de las ubicaciones de Burger King, reduciendo los costos laborales en un 22% y mejorando la consistencia de preparación de alimentos.

Tecnología de automatización	Ubicaciones implementadas	Reducción de costos
Sistemas de cocina robótica	15% de los restaurantes de Burger King	22%

Análisis de datos Menú de conducción Innovación y estrategias de marketing

QSR utilizó plataformas de análisis predictivos, que generan USD 87 millones en ingresos incrementales a través de la optimización del menú basada en datos en 2023.

Tecnologías de entrega sin contacto que ganan prominencia

Restaurant Brands International amplió las asociaciones de entrega sin contacto, aumentando las ventas de entrega en un 41% en 2023, con USD 675 millones generados a través de plataformas de entrega de terceros.

Plataforma de entrega	Ventas 2023	Índice de crecimiento
Entrega de terceros	USD 675 millones	41%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Cumplimiento y reglamentos del acuerdo de franquicia

Restaurant Brands International Inc. opera 27,515 restaurantes en más de 100 países a partir del cuarto trimestre de 2023. La compañía administra 4 marcas principales: Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes y Firehouse Subs.

Marca	Total de ubicaciones franquiciadas	Tasa de cumplimiento
Rey Burger	19,247	98.6%
Tim Hortons	5,443	97.3%
Popeyes	5,763	96.9%
Subsidios de bomberos	1,262	95.7%

Protección de propiedad intelectual

Restaurant Brands International posee 437 marcas registradas en todo el mundo a partir de 2023, con $ 125 millones invertidos en protección de marca.

Cumplimiento de la ley de empleo

Región	Total de empleados	Tasa de cumplimiento legal
América del norte	84,500	99.2%
Europa	22,300	98.7%
Asia-Pacífico	15,700	97.5%

Regulación de seguridad y salud alimentaria

La empresa mantiene 99.1% Cumplimiento de seguridad alimentaria en todos los restaurantes. Invirtió $ 47.3 millones en programas de capacitación y certificación de seguridad alimentaria en 2023.

Privacidad de datos y protección del consumidor

Restaurant Brands International gastó $ 18.2 millones en ciberseguridad y protección de datos en 2023. Mantenido 99.6% de cumplimiento con las regulaciones GDPR y CCPA.

Regulación	Gasto de cumplimiento	Tasa de cumplimiento
GDPR	$ 8.7 millones	99.8%
CCPA	$ 6.5 millones	99.4%
Pipeda	$ 3 millones	99.5%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Iniciativas de envasado sostenible y reducción de desechos

Restaurant Brands International se comprometió a reducir el envasado de plástico en un 25% para 2025. En 2023, la compañía implementó envases reciclables en 3,456 ubicaciones de Tim Hortons en Canadá, reduciendo 2,1 millones de libras de plásticos de un solo uso anualmente.

Iniciativa	Año objetivo	Porcentaje de reducción	Impacto estimado
Reducción de envasado de plástico	2025	25%	2.1 millones de libras de plástico eliminado
Implementación de embalaje reciclable	2023	100%	3,456 ubicaciones de Tim Hortons

Gestión de huellas de carbono en operaciones de restaurantes

QSR redujo las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en un 18,3% en las operaciones globales en 2023, con los restaurantes de Burger King implementando sistemas de refrigeración de eficiencia energética que disminuyeron las emisiones de carbono en un 22,4%.

Categoría de reducción de emisiones	Reducción porcentual	Año
Emisiones de operaciones globales	18.3%	2023
Emisiones de refrigeración de Burger King	22.4%	2023

Abastecimiento de ingredientes de proveedores ambientalmente responsables

Restaurant Brands International obtuvo el 67% de la carne de res de proveedores con prácticas agrícolas sostenibles verificadas en 2023, invirtiendo $ 45.2 millones en programas de abastecimiento sostenible.

Métrica de abastecimiento sostenible	Porcentaje	Inversión
Abastecimiento de carne sostenible	67%	$ 45.2 millones

Impacto del cambio climático en las cadenas de suministro agrícola

QSR experimentó un aumento del 12.5% ​​en los costos de adquisición de ingredientes debido a las interrupciones agrícolas relacionadas con el clima en 2023, lo que provocó la diversificación estratégica de las fuentes de la cadena de suministro en 14 países.

Mejoras de eficiencia energética en las instalaciones de restaurantes

Restaurant Brands International invirtió $ 78.6 millones en infraestructura de eficiencia energética, reduciendo el consumo total de energía en un 23.7% en 7.800 ubicaciones de restaurantes globales en 2023.

Inversión de eficiencia energética	Restaurantes totales	Reducción del consumo de energía
$ 78.6 millones	7,800	23.7%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Growing demand for plant-based and healthier menu options drives product innovation costs.

Consumer preferences are shifting away from traditional meat-centric diets, creating a strong market pull for plant-based and healthier menu alternatives. This is not just a niche trend; the plant-based food market in the US reached an estimated $8.1 billion in 2024, indicating mainstream adoption.

Restaurant Brands International is responding actively, especially with the Burger King brand internationally, where guest interest in meat alternatives is high. This push requires significant capital investment in research and development, supply chain adjustments, and new kitchen technology to prevent cross-contamination and ensure product quality. For example, Burger King has been expanding its plant-based platform, trialing and launching new ingredients like plant-based bacon and plant-based cheese in its European, Middle Eastern, and African (EMEA) markets.

The investment is necessary because younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, are adopting these habits rapidly; data shows that approximately 19% of Gen Z diners are embracing plant-based eating.

Tight labor markets force average US hourly wages to rise, potentially exceeding $16.50 by late 2025.

The US quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry continues to face a tight labor market, directly impacting operating costs for Restaurant Brands International's franchisees. While the national average hourly wage for all private-sector, non-supervisory employees hit $31.46/Hour in August 2025, the pressure on the QSR sector is driven by state and local minimum wage increases.

This is a critical cost driver. In late 2025, the fast-food minimum wage in New York City and its suburbs is climbing to $17.50 per hour, and in many California cities, rates are at or above $17.25. Here's the quick math: a $1.00 increase in the average hourly wage for a single full-time employee (2,080 hours annually) translates to an extra $2,080 in annual labor cost per employee, not including payroll taxes and benefits. This cost pressure is forcing franchisees to invest more heavily in automation and digital ordering systems to offset rising labor expenses.

Increased public focus on ethical sourcing and animal welfare impacts supplier contracts.

Social scrutiny on how major food companies source their ingredients is intense and non-negotiable for brand reputation. Restaurant Brands International has made tangible commitments to animal welfare, which directly affects its supply chain and long-term contracts. This requires costly, verifiable third-party auditing and collaboration with suppliers to implement new standards.

The company has shown significant progress in one key area: eliminating the use of gestation crates for pregnant sows. As of March 2025, the company achieved global compliance on this commitment for 80% of its pork supply. This is a massive jump from 35% compliance in 2023. In North America, the progress is nearly complete: Burger King and Tim Hortons in the United States and Canada have achieved compliance on 99% of their collective pork requirements as of March 2025. This is defintely a positive for the brand's social license to operate, but it means higher-cost contracts with compliant suppliers.

Animal Welfare Commitment (Pork)	Global Compliance (March 2025)	North America Compliance (March 2025)	Change from 2023 Global
Elimination of Gestation Crates	80% of pork supply	99% of collective pork requirements (Burger King & Tim Hortons US/Canada)	Up from 35%

Millennial and Gen Z consumers prioritize convenience and speed, fueling digital sales growth.

The younger consumer base demands seamless, fast, and personalized experiences, which has fundamentally shifted sales channels. This cohort, which includes Millennials and Gen Z, overwhelmingly prefers off-premises dining-takeout, mobile ordering, and delivery-over the traditional dine-in experience.

This preference is the engine for digital growth at Restaurant Brands International. The company's digital sales grew by over 20% in 2024, a trend that continues into 2025. This growth is driven by investments in user-friendly mobile apps, self-service kiosks, and AI-driven personalized menu recommendations.

The channel shift is clear: drive-thru visits, while still a major part of the business, have slipped to approximately 65% of fast-food sales in 2025, down from their 2020 peak, while mobile and takeout continue to grow. The action is clear: prioritize the app experience. The key digital channels driving this convenience are:

• Mobile ordering apps for speed and loyalty rewards.
• Self-service kiosks for customization and efficiency.
• Integrated delivery channels to streamline third-party platforms.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Digital Sales Target and Growth Drivers

Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is aggressively driving its digital transformation, recognizing that proprietary channels are essential for margin control and customer data ownership. The company aims for over 40% of system-wide sales to be digital by year-end 2025, a critical benchmark for long-term profitability and guest engagement. This digital push is not just about volume; it is about creating a more valuable customer relationship, especially through their mobile applications and loyalty programs.

The success of programs like Burger King's Royal Perks demonstrates the power of this strategy. The program has been a key growth driver, leading to a 500% expansion in the loyalty database and a 900% increase in app downloads in under eight months. More importantly, members spend an average of 67% more per transaction compared to new customers, proving the financial leverage of a strong, first-party digital channel.

Investment in Kitchen Automation and Efficiency

To combat persistent inflation and rising labor costs, which continue to pressure the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) industry, investment in kitchen automation and restaurant technology is paramount. The Burger King brand's multi-year 'Reclaim the Flame' plan earmarks significant capital for this.

The 'Royal Reset' portion of the plan, which includes high-quality remodels, restaurant technology, and kitchen equipment upgrades (like robotic fryers and AI-driven order systems), represents a planned investment of up to $550 million through year-end 2028. As of June 30, 2025, the company had already funded $152 million toward these capital expenditures. This capital is directly aimed at improving speed of service and order accuracy, which are non-negotiable for customer satisfaction.

Technology Focus Area	2025 Strategic Impact	Key Metric / Investment
Digital Sales Mix Goal	Increase customer lifetime value and margin control (first-party sales).	Target: Over 40% of system-wide sales by year-end 2025.
Kitchen Automation & Equipment	Offset labor cost hikes and improve speed/accuracy of service.	$152 million funded toward the $550 million 'Royal Reset' (as of Q2 2025).
Loyalty Programs (e.g., Royal Perks)	Drive higher frequency and average check size through personalization.	Members spend 67% more on average; 500% loyalty database expansion.
AI-Powered Systems	Optimize drive-thru efficiency and personalize marketing offers.	Voice AI drive-thrus reduce service times; personalized offers increase app engagement.

Cybersecurity Risks and Data Governance

The reliance on massive customer data collection via mobile apps and loyalty programs inherently increases cybersecurity risks. Collecting data on millions of customers and employees across over 30,000 global outlets creates a vast and appealing target for malicious actors.

In September 2025, ethical hackers reported finding what they termed 'catastrophic' security vulnerabilities across the digital platforms of Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes. These flaws reportedly exposed internal configurations, employee accounts, and even raw audio of customer drive-thru conversations, which are fed into an AI for sentiment analysis. This underscores the constant, high-stakes need for robust security measures.

The company's cybersecurity risk mitigation program, outlined in its 2025 fiscal filings, includes continuous monitoring, threat-detection services from outside firms, and a comprehensive third-party risk management approach to oversee vendors and franchisees. Still, a single, successful breach could cause significant reputational harm, operational interruptions, and expose the company to substantial litigation and regulatory fines. It's a constant, defintely expensive battle.

• Prioritize data encryption and access controls.
• Mandate multi-factor authentication for employee systems.
• Regularly audit third-party vendor security protocols.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Minimum Wage Hikes and Direct Labor Expense Impact

You are defintely feeling the pressure from rising labor costs, and the biggest near-term legal risk here is the minimum wage hike in California. The state's fast-food minimum wage law, which took effect in April 2024, mandates a minimum of $20 per hour for workers at large chains like Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs.

This is a direct, material hit to unit economics. One study found this policy increased average weekly wages for covered fast-food workers by 10% to 11%. To be fair, employers are passing a significant portion of this cost to consumers, with roughly 63% of the higher wage costs being reflected in menu price increases. For a major Burger King franchisee in California, this has meant raising prices by 8% to 10% in the past year, far more than the typical annual increase.

This cost pressure is also driving a clear strategic action: automation. A large Burger King franchisee, who operates about 140 Burger King locations in California, confirmed plans to install self-order kiosks in every single restaurant to reduce reliance on human labor. Plus, the California Food Council is already planning to propose an additional wage increase of up to 3.5% for 2025, which means the cost pressure will not abate.

Ongoing Franchise Litigation and Relationship Risk

The relationship between franchisors and franchisees is under intense legal scrutiny, and the litigation risk for a global franchisor like Restaurant Brands International remains high in 2025. The core tension is around control, fees, and the franchisor's ability to mandate system changes.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is actively focused on franchisor-franchisee disputes, particularly concerning new, undisclosed fees for technology and services. This includes digital ordering platforms and loyalty program mandates, which can strain franchisee profitability. Also, the National Labor Relations Board's (NLRB) broadened 'Joint Employer Rule' increases the risk of vicarious liability claims, meaning Restaurant Brands International could be held legally responsible for the employment practices of its independent franchisees.

Here is the quick math on the franchise landscape:

Legal/Regulatory Trend (2025)	Impact on QSR Franchisees	QSR Response/Risk Mitigation
FTC Scrutiny on New Fees	Increased disputes over new technology/service fees not disclosed in the Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD).	Focus on improving franchisee profitability; refranchising efforts to local owner-operators.
NLRB Joint Employer Rule	Increased risk of vicarious liability claims for franchisee employee actions (e.g., wage disputes, safety).	Need for stricter operational compliance monitoring and standardized training programs.
Franchise Establishment Growth	The U.S. franchise sector is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2025, demonstrating the model's resilience despite legal headwinds.	Continue global expansion and net restaurant growth, which is targeted at around 3% for 2025.

New Data Privacy Laws Increase Compliance Costs

As you push digital ordering and loyalty programs, the legal landscape for customer data privacy is getting exponentially more complex, and thus, more expensive to navigate. The patchwork of new state-level comprehensive data privacy laws coming online in 2025-including in Delaware, Iowa, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Maryland, Minnesota, and Tennessee-creates a significant compliance burden.

These laws expand the definition of sensitive personal data and mandate new consumer rights like the right to access, correct, and delete personal information. Failing to keep up carries a steep financial penalty. The average cost of a data breach in the hospitality industry is estimated at $2.94 million, and state-level fines can reach up to $10,000 per violation for non-compliance.

The key areas of focus for compliance investment are:

• Map and classify all customer data, especially sensitive data.
• Implement a robust system for handling consumer rights requests (DSARs).
• Conduct mandatory Data Protection Assessments for high-risk processing activities.

Stricter Food Safety and Hygiene Standards

While food safety is an ongoing operational issue, the legal environment is pushing for significant capital upgrades, especially for older Burger King and Tim Hortons locations. Shareholder proposals in 2025 have focused on worker safety and well-being, which often intersects with hygiene and temperature control issues in restaurants.

To address the need for modern operational standards, including stricter food safety and hygiene, Restaurant Brands International is committing significant capital. The company's total capital expenditures and cash inducements for 2025 are expected to be around $400 million, with a major focus on restaurant reimaging and operational improvements.

Specifically, the company plans to remodel 400 restaurants in 2025. This investment is a necessary legal and operational action to mitigate the risk of food safety incidents, which can lead to costly litigation, regulatory fines, and severe reputational damage. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Pressure to meet Scope 3 emissions reduction targets across the complex supply chain.

You need to focus on Scope 3 emissions-those outside your direct control, from suppliers and franchisees-because they represent the vast majority of Restaurant Brands International's (QSR) carbon footprint. This is the real challenge for a franchised quick-service restaurant (QSR) model. QSR's science-based target (SBT) is to reduce Scope 1 and 2 absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50%, and Scope 3 GHG emissions intensity by 50% per metric tonne of food and per franchise restaurant by 2030, relative to a 2019 baseline.

The complexity is clear: Scope 3 emissions accounted for about 57,030,936,000 kg CO2e in 2024, with Purchased Goods and Services being the largest source at 41% of that total. This means the beef, coffee, and packaging suppliers drive the emissions profile, not the corporate offices. In 2024, QSR saw a 3.7% decrease in Scope 3 emissions compared to the 2022 baseline, which is progress, but the long-term trend showed Scope 3 emissions increasing by 93% since 2019, demonstrating the difficulty in controlling this category. You can't just flip a switch on a global supply chain.

GHG Emissions Target (2030)	Baseline Year	Target Reduction	2024 Scope 3 Component
Scope 1 & 2 (Absolute)	2019	50%	N/A (Direct Operations)
Scope 3 (Intensity)	2019	50%	Purchased Goods & Services: 41% of Scope 3

New regulations on single-use plastic packaging force costly redesigns for Tim Hortons' cups.

Regulatory pressure on single-use plastics and harmful chemicals is forcing costly, large-scale packaging redesigns, especially for the high-volume Tim Hortons brand. The most immediate deadline is the commitment to phase out intentionally added perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)-so-called 'forever chemicals'-from all approved, guest-facing packaging globally by the end of 2025. As of 2024, QSR had eliminated PFAS from approximately 97% of approved guest packaging volumes globally, which is defintely a strong push.

Beyond chemicals, the focus is on plastic reduction. The target is to reduce virgin plastics content in guest-facing, single-use packaging by 10% across the U.S. and Canadian home markets by the end of 2026. This requires a massive shift in materials. For instance, Tim Hortons in Canada has already introduced wooden and fibre cutlery, eliminating an estimated use of 90 million single-use plastics annually. They are also evaluating learnings from a 2024 returnable takeout pilot in Vancouver to see how to create commercially viable reuse systems.

• Eliminate intentionally added PFAS from all guest-facing packaging by end of 2025.
• Reduce virgin plastic content by 10% in US/Canada by end of 2026.
• Tim Hortons eliminated 90 million single-use plastics annually with new cutlery.

Climate change-related extreme weather events threaten coffee and potato crop yields.

Climate volatility is no longer a theoretical risk; it's a direct input cost driver for key commodities like coffee and potatoes. For Tim Hortons, coffee is core, and the impact is already visible in the market. Extreme weather in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is expected to drive production down by 4.4% in 2025. This contributed to Arabica coffee prices jumping by 80% in 2024 to a nearly 50-year high, with the average cost of specialty coffee increasing by 37% since 2023.

The potato supply chain, critical for Burger King's fries and Tim Hortons' wedges, is also under strain. While QSR's global sourcing model offers some resilience, regional climate events create price volatility. For example, Canadian potato growers are expected to produce 122.2 million cwt in 2025, a decrease of 4.7% from 2024, due to insufficient rainfall in key regions like Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick. This volatility is what drives the need for diversified sourcing, which QSR is doing, but it doesn't eliminate the risk of a price surge like the one seen in coffee.

Increased investor and public demand for transparency in beef sourcing and deforestation policies.

As a major global purchaser of beef through the Burger King brand, QSR faces intense scrutiny over its supply chain's link to deforestation, particularly in South America. The company's goal is to eliminate deforestation by 2030 or sooner for priority commodities, including beef and coffee. This is a necessary but long-term commitment that requires immediate, transparent action to satisfy investors and consumers.

QSR is actively working on the ground to mitigate this risk. Burger King, in partnership with Cargill and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF), has a $10 million, five-year plan (started in 2022) to support cattle ranchers in adopting regenerative agriculture practices. This project aims to protect, restore, or improve grazing lands management on over 831,000 acres, directly addressing the land-use component of beef emissions. This kind of investment is crucial because beef emissions declined only slightly, from 52% of QSR's overall Scope 3 inventory in 2023 to 48% in 2024, showing how dominant this single commodity remains in the company's environmental footprint.

Next Step: Finance: Model the impact of a 5% increase in raw material costs combined with a 10% rise in average US labor costs on a typical Burger King franchisee's EBITDA by Friday.