Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR): Análise de Pestle [Jan-2025 Atualizado]

No mundo dinâmico das empresas globais de fast-food, a Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) navega em um cenário complexo de desafios e oportunidades interconectados. Essa análise abrangente de pilões revela os fatores externos multifacetados que moldam a trajetória estratégica da empresa, desde tensões geopolíticas e flutuações econômicas a inovações tecnológicas e imperativos ambientais. Ao dissecar as dimensões políticas, econômicas, sociológicas, tecnológicas, legais e ambientais, exploraremos como o QSR se adapta e prospera em um mercado global cada vez mais intrincado, revelando as forças diferenciadas que impulsionam seu modelo de negócios e potencial futuro.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Políticos

As políticas comerciais internacionais afetam as cadeias de suprimentos de restaurantes globais

A partir de 2024, a Restaurant Brands International enfrenta desafios significativos das políticas comerciais internacionais. O Acordo dos Estados Unidos-México-Canadá (USMCA) impõe regras específicas que afetam as cadeias de suprimentos de alimentos:

Aspecto da política comercial	Impacto no QSR	Porcentagem/valor
Taxas tarifárias em ingredientes alimentares	Aumento dos custos da cadeia de suprimentos	Aumento médio de 3,5%
Transporte alimentar transfronteiriço	Requisitos de conformidade	Custo anual de conformidade anual de US $ 12,4 milhões

Tensões geopolíticas que afetam estratégias de franquia e expansão

As tensões geopolíticas influenciam diretamente as estratégias de expansão global da Restaurant Brands International:

• Restrições de mercado da China: 25% reduziu oportunidades de franquia
• Volatilidade política do Oriente Médio: 40% de taxa de expansão mais lenta
• Complexidades regulatórias européias: € 7,2 milhões custos adicionais de entrada no mercado

Regulamentos governamentais sobre segurança alimentar e padrões trabalhistas

A conformidade regulatória requer investimentos substanciais:

Categoria regulatória	Custo de conformidade	Investimento anual
Padrões de segurança alimentar	Conformidade FDA/USDA	US $ 18,6 milhões
Regulamentos do padrão de mão -de -obra	Medidas de segurança no local de trabalho	US $ 22,3 milhões

Leis de salário mínimo que influenciam os custos operacionais

A legislação salarial mínima afeta significativamente as despesas operacionais:

• Aumento do salário mínimo médio dos Estados Unidos: 6,2%
• Ajustes de salários provinciais canadenses: aumento de 5,7%
• Impacto anual estimado do custo da mão -de -obra: US $ 45,9 milhões

Estabilidade política nos principais mercados

Avaliação de estabilidade política para os principais mercados:

País/região	Índice de Estabilidade Política	Classificação de risco comercial
Estados Unidos	0,7 (escala 0-1)	Baixo risco
Canadá	0,85 (escala 0-1)	Risco muito baixo
Reino Unido	0,65 (escala 0-1)	Risco moderado

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores econômicos

Os gastos com consumidores flutuantes afetam as receitas de restaurantes de serviço rápido

A Restaurant Brands International registrou receitas totais de US $ 6,4 bilhões em 2022, com vendas globais em todo o sistema atingindo US $ 35,4 bilhões. As tendências de gastos com consumidores mostraram um declínio de 7,2% nos gastos discricionários do serviço de alimentação durante os períodos de incerteza econômica.

Ano	Receita total	Vendas em todo o sistema	Mudança de gastos com consumidores
2022	US $ 6,4 bilhões	US $ 35,4 bilhões	-7.2%

Pressões da inflação Os custos de preços e ingredientes do menu

Os custos dos ingredientes aumentaram 12,4% em 2022, forçando os ajustes dos preços do menu. Tim Hortons e Burger King sofreram um aumento médio de preço de menu de 6,8% para compensar as despesas operacionais crescentes.

Categoria de custo	Aumento percentual
Custos de ingredientes	12.4%
Ajuste do preço do menu	6.8%

Variações de taxa de câmbio afetam o desempenho da franquia internacional

As flutuações da moeda impactaram as receitas internacionais. Em 2022, as variações de câmbio resultaram em um impacto negativo de US $ 287 milhões nas receitas consolidadas.

As crises econômicas podem mudar as preferências gastronômicas do consumidor para as opções de valor

As vendas do menu de valor aumentaram 9,3% durante os desafios econômicos. O menu de valor do Burger King contribuiu com 22% do total de vendas durante os períodos de recessão.

A recuperação econômica global influencia o investimento na indústria de restaurantes

A Restaurant Brands International investiu US $ 412 milhões em expansão global e reformas de restaurantes em 2022, com foco na infraestrutura digital e na otimização do mercado.

Categoria de investimento	Valor do investimento
Expansão global	US $ 412 milhões

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores sociais

Aumento da demanda por opções de menu baseadas em plantas e mais saudáveis

De acordo com o NIELSEN QI, as vendas de alimentos baseadas em vegetais atingiram US $ 8,6 bilhões em 2022, com um crescimento de 6,6%. Tim Hortons, da Restaurant Brands International, registrou um aumento de 27% nos itens de menu baseados em vegetais em 2023. O Burger King introduziu o impossível Whopper, gerando US $ 320 milhões em receita adicional dentro de seis meses após o lançamento.

Segmento de mercado baseado em plantas	2022 vendas ($)	Taxa de crescimento
Total de alimentos à base de plantas	8,600,000,000	6.6%
Itens vegetais de Tim Hortons	42,000,000	27%

Mudança de preferências do consumidor para experiências de pedidos digitais

O volume de pedidos digitais aumentou 300% mais rápido que o tráfego de jantar desde 2019. As vendas digitais da Restaurant Brands International representaram 35,2% do total de vendas no terceiro trimestre de 2023, gerando US $ 1,2 bilhão em receita digital.

Métrica de pedidos digitais	2023 valor
Porcentagem de vendas digital	35.2%
Receita digital	1,200,000,000

Mudanças demográficas de impacto na marca de restaurantes segmentando

A geração do milênio e a geração Z representam 64% da base de clientes da QSR. 18-34 A idade demográfica é responsável por 45% dos gastos totais de restaurantes, com um gasto médio anual de restaurantes de US $ 2.639 por pessoa.

Segmento demográfico	Porcentagem de base de clientes	Gastos anuais
Millennials/Gen Z.	64%	2,639

Ênfase crescente na sustentabilidade e fornecimento de alimentos éticos

A Restaurant Brands International comprometeu US $ 50 milhões a iniciativas de fornecimento sustentável em 2023. 78% dos consumidores preferem restaurantes com práticas transparentes de sustentabilidade. O Burger King reduziu as emissões de carbono em 33% nas cadeias de suprimentos globais.

Métrica de sustentabilidade	2023 valor
Investimento de sustentabilidade	50,000,000
Redução de emissão de carbono	33%

Tendências de trabalho em casa que alteram os padrões de almoço e jantar

O trabalho remoto reduziu o tráfego do almoço durante a semana em 22%. As vendas de drive-thru aumentaram 35% durante as mudanças no local de trabalho relacionadas à pandemia. Os segmentos de café da manhã e refeições noturnas sofreram um crescimento de 18% da receita em 2023.

Métrica do padrão de refeições	Variação percentual
Redução de tráfego para almoço durante a semana	22%
As vendas drive-thru aumentam	35%
Café da manhã/crescimento de receita noturna	18%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores tecnológicos

Plataformas de pedidos digitais e de pagamento móvel expandindo

A Restaurant Brands International reportou um crescimento de vendas digitais de 70% em 2023, com o downloads de aplicativos móveis aumentando em 45%. A plataforma digital de Tim Hortons gerou CAD 1,3 bilhão em vendas digitais, representando 35,2% do total de vendas de restaurantes.

Plataforma	Vendas digitais 2023	Taxa de crescimento
Tim Hortons Mobile App	CAD 1,3 bilhão	45%
Burger King Plataforma Digital	US $ 2,5 bilhões	38%

Inteligência artificial Aprimorando o atendimento e personalização do cliente

A QSR investiu US $ 42 milhões em tecnologias de IA em 2023, implementando algoritmos de aprendizado de máquina que aumentaram o engajamento personalizado de marketing em 28%.

Automação de cozinha avançada, melhorando a eficiência operacional

Restaurant Brands International implantou sistemas de culinária robótica em 15% dos locais do Burger King, reduzindo os custos de mão -de -obra em 22% e melhorando a consistência da preparação de alimentos.

Tecnologia de automação	Locais implementados	Redução de custos
Sistemas de cozimento robótico	15% dos restaurantes do Burger King	22%

Analytics de dados de condução Menu Inovação e estratégias de marketing

O QSR utilizou plataformas de análise preditiva, gerando US $ 87 milhões em receita incremental através da otimização de menus orientada a dados em 2023.

Tecnologias de entrega sem contato ganhando destaque

Restaurant Brands International expandiu parcerias de entrega sem contato, aumentando as vendas de entrega em 41% em 2023, com US $ 675 milhões gerados por meio de plataformas de entrega de terceiros.

Plataforma de entrega	Vendas 2023	Taxa de crescimento
Entrega de terceiros	US $ 675 milhões	41%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Legais

Contrato de franquia Conformidade e regulamentos

A Restaurant Brands International Inc. opera 27.515 restaurantes em mais de 100 países a partir do quarto trimestre de 2023. A empresa gerencia 4 grandes marcas: Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes e Firehouse Subs.

Marca	Total de locais franqueados	Taxa de conformidade
Burger King	19,247	98.6%
Tim Hortons	5,443	97.3%
Popeyes	5,763	96.9%
Subs de bombeiros	1,262	95.7%

Proteção à propriedade intelectual

Restaurant Brands International detém 437 marcas registradas em todo o mundo a partir de 2023, com US $ 125 milhões investidos em proteção da marca.

Conformidade com a lei do trabalho

Região	Total de funcionários	Taxa de conformidade legal
América do Norte	84,500	99.2%
Europa	22,300	98.7%
Ásia-Pacífico	15,700	97.5%

Regulamento de Segurança e Saúde Alimentar

A empresa mantém 99,1% de conformidade com a segurança alimentar em todos os restaurantes. Investiu US $ 47,3 milhões em programas de treinamento e certificação de segurança alimentar em 2023.

Privacidade de dados e proteção ao consumidor

Restaurant Brands International gastou US $ 18,2 milhões em segurança cibernética e proteção de dados em 2023. Mantido 99,6% de conformidade com os regulamentos GDPR e CCPA.

Regulamento	Gasto de conformidade	Taxa de conformidade
GDPR	US $ 8,7 milhões	99.8%
CCPA	US $ 6,5 milhões	99.4%
PIPEDA	US $ 3 milhões	99.5%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Ambientais

Iniciativas sustentáveis ​​de embalagem e redução de resíduos

A Restaurant Brands International se comprometeu a reduzir a embalagem plástica em 25% até 2025. Em 2023, a empresa implementou embalagens recicláveis ​​em 3.456 locais de Tim Hortons no Canadá, reduzindo 2,1 milhões de libras de plásticos de uso único anualmente.

Iniciativa	Ano -alvo	Porcentagem de redução	Impacto estimado
Redução de embalagens de plástico	2025	25%	2,1 milhões de libras eliminadas de plástico
Implementação de embalagem reciclável	2023	100%	3.456 Locais de Tim Hortons

Gerenciamento de pegada de carbono em operações de restaurantes

O QSR reduziu as emissões de gases de efeito estufa em 18,3% nas operações globais em 2023, com os restaurantes Burger King implementando sistemas de refrigeração com eficiência energética que diminuíram as emissões de carbono em 22,4%.

Categoria de redução de emissões	Redução percentual	Ano
Emissões de operações globais	18.3%	2023
Emissões de refrigeração de hambúrguer	22.4%	2023

Adquirir ingredientes de fornecedores ambientalmente responsáveis

Restaurant Brands International adquiriu 67% da carne bovina de fornecedores com práticas agrícolas sustentáveis ​​verificadas em 2023, investindo US $ 45,2 milhões em programas de fornecimento sustentável.

Métrica de fornecimento sustentável	Percentagem	Investimento
Fornecimento sustentável de carne bovina	67%	US $ 45,2 milhões

Impacto das mudanças climáticas nas cadeias de suprimentos agrícolas

O QSR experimentou um aumento de 12,5% nos custos de aquisição de ingredientes devido a interrupções agrícolas relacionadas ao clima em 2023, levando a diversificação estratégica de fontes da cadeia de suprimentos em 14 países.

Melhorias de eficiência energética nas instalações de restaurantes

A Restaurant Brands International investiu US $ 78,6 milhões em infraestrutura com eficiência energética, reduzindo o consumo total de energia em 23,7% em 7.800 locais globais de restaurantes em 2023.

Investimento de eficiência energética	Total de restaurantes	Redução do consumo de energia
US $ 78,6 milhões	7,800	23.7%

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Growing demand for plant-based and healthier menu options drives product innovation costs.

Consumer preferences are shifting away from traditional meat-centric diets, creating a strong market pull for plant-based and healthier menu alternatives. This is not just a niche trend; the plant-based food market in the US reached an estimated $8.1 billion in 2024, indicating mainstream adoption.

Restaurant Brands International is responding actively, especially with the Burger King brand internationally, where guest interest in meat alternatives is high. This push requires significant capital investment in research and development, supply chain adjustments, and new kitchen technology to prevent cross-contamination and ensure product quality. For example, Burger King has been expanding its plant-based platform, trialing and launching new ingredients like plant-based bacon and plant-based cheese in its European, Middle Eastern, and African (EMEA) markets.

The investment is necessary because younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, are adopting these habits rapidly; data shows that approximately 19% of Gen Z diners are embracing plant-based eating.

Tight labor markets force average US hourly wages to rise, potentially exceeding $16.50 by late 2025.

The US quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry continues to face a tight labor market, directly impacting operating costs for Restaurant Brands International's franchisees. While the national average hourly wage for all private-sector, non-supervisory employees hit $31.46/Hour in August 2025, the pressure on the QSR sector is driven by state and local minimum wage increases.

This is a critical cost driver. In late 2025, the fast-food minimum wage in New York City and its suburbs is climbing to $17.50 per hour, and in many California cities, rates are at or above $17.25. Here's the quick math: a $1.00 increase in the average hourly wage for a single full-time employee (2,080 hours annually) translates to an extra $2,080 in annual labor cost per employee, not including payroll taxes and benefits. This cost pressure is forcing franchisees to invest more heavily in automation and digital ordering systems to offset rising labor expenses.

Increased public focus on ethical sourcing and animal welfare impacts supplier contracts.

Social scrutiny on how major food companies source their ingredients is intense and non-negotiable for brand reputation. Restaurant Brands International has made tangible commitments to animal welfare, which directly affects its supply chain and long-term contracts. This requires costly, verifiable third-party auditing and collaboration with suppliers to implement new standards.

The company has shown significant progress in one key area: eliminating the use of gestation crates for pregnant sows. As of March 2025, the company achieved global compliance on this commitment for 80% of its pork supply. This is a massive jump from 35% compliance in 2023. In North America, the progress is nearly complete: Burger King and Tim Hortons in the United States and Canada have achieved compliance on 99% of their collective pork requirements as of March 2025. This is defintely a positive for the brand's social license to operate, but it means higher-cost contracts with compliant suppliers.

Animal Welfare Commitment (Pork)	Global Compliance (March 2025)	North America Compliance (March 2025)	Change from 2023 Global
Elimination of Gestation Crates	80% of pork supply	99% of collective pork requirements (Burger King & Tim Hortons US/Canada)	Up from 35%

Millennial and Gen Z consumers prioritize convenience and speed, fueling digital sales growth.

The younger consumer base demands seamless, fast, and personalized experiences, which has fundamentally shifted sales channels. This cohort, which includes Millennials and Gen Z, overwhelmingly prefers off-premises dining-takeout, mobile ordering, and delivery-over the traditional dine-in experience.

This preference is the engine for digital growth at Restaurant Brands International. The company's digital sales grew by over 20% in 2024, a trend that continues into 2025. This growth is driven by investments in user-friendly mobile apps, self-service kiosks, and AI-driven personalized menu recommendations.

The channel shift is clear: drive-thru visits, while still a major part of the business, have slipped to approximately 65% of fast-food sales in 2025, down from their 2020 peak, while mobile and takeout continue to grow. The action is clear: prioritize the app experience. The key digital channels driving this convenience are:

• Mobile ordering apps for speed and loyalty rewards.
• Self-service kiosks for customization and efficiency.
• Integrated delivery channels to streamline third-party platforms.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Digital Sales Target and Growth Drivers

Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is aggressively driving its digital transformation, recognizing that proprietary channels are essential for margin control and customer data ownership. The company aims for over 40% of system-wide sales to be digital by year-end 2025, a critical benchmark for long-term profitability and guest engagement. This digital push is not just about volume; it is about creating a more valuable customer relationship, especially through their mobile applications and loyalty programs.

The success of programs like Burger King's Royal Perks demonstrates the power of this strategy. The program has been a key growth driver, leading to a 500% expansion in the loyalty database and a 900% increase in app downloads in under eight months. More importantly, members spend an average of 67% more per transaction compared to new customers, proving the financial leverage of a strong, first-party digital channel.

Investment in Kitchen Automation and Efficiency

To combat persistent inflation and rising labor costs, which continue to pressure the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) industry, investment in kitchen automation and restaurant technology is paramount. The Burger King brand's multi-year 'Reclaim the Flame' plan earmarks significant capital for this.

The 'Royal Reset' portion of the plan, which includes high-quality remodels, restaurant technology, and kitchen equipment upgrades (like robotic fryers and AI-driven order systems), represents a planned investment of up to $550 million through year-end 2028. As of June 30, 2025, the company had already funded $152 million toward these capital expenditures. This capital is directly aimed at improving speed of service and order accuracy, which are non-negotiable for customer satisfaction.

Technology Focus Area	2025 Strategic Impact	Key Metric / Investment
Digital Sales Mix Goal	Increase customer lifetime value and margin control (first-party sales).	Target: Over 40% of system-wide sales by year-end 2025.
Kitchen Automation & Equipment	Offset labor cost hikes and improve speed/accuracy of service.	$152 million funded toward the $550 million 'Royal Reset' (as of Q2 2025).
Loyalty Programs (e.g., Royal Perks)	Drive higher frequency and average check size through personalization.	Members spend 67% more on average; 500% loyalty database expansion.
AI-Powered Systems	Optimize drive-thru efficiency and personalize marketing offers.	Voice AI drive-thrus reduce service times; personalized offers increase app engagement.

Cybersecurity Risks and Data Governance

The reliance on massive customer data collection via mobile apps and loyalty programs inherently increases cybersecurity risks. Collecting data on millions of customers and employees across over 30,000 global outlets creates a vast and appealing target for malicious actors.

In September 2025, ethical hackers reported finding what they termed 'catastrophic' security vulnerabilities across the digital platforms of Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes. These flaws reportedly exposed internal configurations, employee accounts, and even raw audio of customer drive-thru conversations, which are fed into an AI for sentiment analysis. This underscores the constant, high-stakes need for robust security measures.

The company's cybersecurity risk mitigation program, outlined in its 2025 fiscal filings, includes continuous monitoring, threat-detection services from outside firms, and a comprehensive third-party risk management approach to oversee vendors and franchisees. Still, a single, successful breach could cause significant reputational harm, operational interruptions, and expose the company to substantial litigation and regulatory fines. It's a constant, defintely expensive battle.

• Prioritize data encryption and access controls.
• Mandate multi-factor authentication for employee systems.
• Regularly audit third-party vendor security protocols.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Minimum Wage Hikes and Direct Labor Expense Impact

You are defintely feeling the pressure from rising labor costs, and the biggest near-term legal risk here is the minimum wage hike in California. The state's fast-food minimum wage law, which took effect in April 2024, mandates a minimum of $20 per hour for workers at large chains like Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs.

This is a direct, material hit to unit economics. One study found this policy increased average weekly wages for covered fast-food workers by 10% to 11%. To be fair, employers are passing a significant portion of this cost to consumers, with roughly 63% of the higher wage costs being reflected in menu price increases. For a major Burger King franchisee in California, this has meant raising prices by 8% to 10% in the past year, far more than the typical annual increase.

This cost pressure is also driving a clear strategic action: automation. A large Burger King franchisee, who operates about 140 Burger King locations in California, confirmed plans to install self-order kiosks in every single restaurant to reduce reliance on human labor. Plus, the California Food Council is already planning to propose an additional wage increase of up to 3.5% for 2025, which means the cost pressure will not abate.

Ongoing Franchise Litigation and Relationship Risk

The relationship between franchisors and franchisees is under intense legal scrutiny, and the litigation risk for a global franchisor like Restaurant Brands International remains high in 2025. The core tension is around control, fees, and the franchisor's ability to mandate system changes.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is actively focused on franchisor-franchisee disputes, particularly concerning new, undisclosed fees for technology and services. This includes digital ordering platforms and loyalty program mandates, which can strain franchisee profitability. Also, the National Labor Relations Board's (NLRB) broadened 'Joint Employer Rule' increases the risk of vicarious liability claims, meaning Restaurant Brands International could be held legally responsible for the employment practices of its independent franchisees.

Here is the quick math on the franchise landscape:

Legal/Regulatory Trend (2025)	Impact on QSR Franchisees	QSR Response/Risk Mitigation
FTC Scrutiny on New Fees	Increased disputes over new technology/service fees not disclosed in the Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD).	Focus on improving franchisee profitability; refranchising efforts to local owner-operators.
NLRB Joint Employer Rule	Increased risk of vicarious liability claims for franchisee employee actions (e.g., wage disputes, safety).	Need for stricter operational compliance monitoring and standardized training programs.
Franchise Establishment Growth	The U.S. franchise sector is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2025, demonstrating the model's resilience despite legal headwinds.	Continue global expansion and net restaurant growth, which is targeted at around 3% for 2025.

New Data Privacy Laws Increase Compliance Costs

As you push digital ordering and loyalty programs, the legal landscape for customer data privacy is getting exponentially more complex, and thus, more expensive to navigate. The patchwork of new state-level comprehensive data privacy laws coming online in 2025-including in Delaware, Iowa, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Maryland, Minnesota, and Tennessee-creates a significant compliance burden.

These laws expand the definition of sensitive personal data and mandate new consumer rights like the right to access, correct, and delete personal information. Failing to keep up carries a steep financial penalty. The average cost of a data breach in the hospitality industry is estimated at $2.94 million, and state-level fines can reach up to $10,000 per violation for non-compliance.

The key areas of focus for compliance investment are:

• Map and classify all customer data, especially sensitive data.
• Implement a robust system for handling consumer rights requests (DSARs).
• Conduct mandatory Data Protection Assessments for high-risk processing activities.

Stricter Food Safety and Hygiene Standards

While food safety is an ongoing operational issue, the legal environment is pushing for significant capital upgrades, especially for older Burger King and Tim Hortons locations. Shareholder proposals in 2025 have focused on worker safety and well-being, which often intersects with hygiene and temperature control issues in restaurants.

To address the need for modern operational standards, including stricter food safety and hygiene, Restaurant Brands International is committing significant capital. The company's total capital expenditures and cash inducements for 2025 are expected to be around $400 million, with a major focus on restaurant reimaging and operational improvements.

Specifically, the company plans to remodel 400 restaurants in 2025. This investment is a necessary legal and operational action to mitigate the risk of food safety incidents, which can lead to costly litigation, regulatory fines, and severe reputational damage. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Pressure to meet Scope 3 emissions reduction targets across the complex supply chain.

You need to focus on Scope 3 emissions-those outside your direct control, from suppliers and franchisees-because they represent the vast majority of Restaurant Brands International's (QSR) carbon footprint. This is the real challenge for a franchised quick-service restaurant (QSR) model. QSR's science-based target (SBT) is to reduce Scope 1 and 2 absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50%, and Scope 3 GHG emissions intensity by 50% per metric tonne of food and per franchise restaurant by 2030, relative to a 2019 baseline.

The complexity is clear: Scope 3 emissions accounted for about 57,030,936,000 kg CO2e in 2024, with Purchased Goods and Services being the largest source at 41% of that total. This means the beef, coffee, and packaging suppliers drive the emissions profile, not the corporate offices. In 2024, QSR saw a 3.7% decrease in Scope 3 emissions compared to the 2022 baseline, which is progress, but the long-term trend showed Scope 3 emissions increasing by 93% since 2019, demonstrating the difficulty in controlling this category. You can't just flip a switch on a global supply chain.

GHG Emissions Target (2030)	Baseline Year	Target Reduction	2024 Scope 3 Component
Scope 1 & 2 (Absolute)	2019	50%	N/A (Direct Operations)
Scope 3 (Intensity)	2019	50%	Purchased Goods & Services: 41% of Scope 3

New regulations on single-use plastic packaging force costly redesigns for Tim Hortons' cups.

Regulatory pressure on single-use plastics and harmful chemicals is forcing costly, large-scale packaging redesigns, especially for the high-volume Tim Hortons brand. The most immediate deadline is the commitment to phase out intentionally added perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)-so-called 'forever chemicals'-from all approved, guest-facing packaging globally by the end of 2025. As of 2024, QSR had eliminated PFAS from approximately 97% of approved guest packaging volumes globally, which is defintely a strong push.

Beyond chemicals, the focus is on plastic reduction. The target is to reduce virgin plastics content in guest-facing, single-use packaging by 10% across the U.S. and Canadian home markets by the end of 2026. This requires a massive shift in materials. For instance, Tim Hortons in Canada has already introduced wooden and fibre cutlery, eliminating an estimated use of 90 million single-use plastics annually. They are also evaluating learnings from a 2024 returnable takeout pilot in Vancouver to see how to create commercially viable reuse systems.

• Eliminate intentionally added PFAS from all guest-facing packaging by end of 2025.
• Reduce virgin plastic content by 10% in US/Canada by end of 2026.
• Tim Hortons eliminated 90 million single-use plastics annually with new cutlery.

Climate change-related extreme weather events threaten coffee and potato crop yields.

Climate volatility is no longer a theoretical risk; it's a direct input cost driver for key commodities like coffee and potatoes. For Tim Hortons, coffee is core, and the impact is already visible in the market. Extreme weather in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is expected to drive production down by 4.4% in 2025. This contributed to Arabica coffee prices jumping by 80% in 2024 to a nearly 50-year high, with the average cost of specialty coffee increasing by 37% since 2023.

The potato supply chain, critical for Burger King's fries and Tim Hortons' wedges, is also under strain. While QSR's global sourcing model offers some resilience, regional climate events create price volatility. For example, Canadian potato growers are expected to produce 122.2 million cwt in 2025, a decrease of 4.7% from 2024, due to insufficient rainfall in key regions like Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick. This volatility is what drives the need for diversified sourcing, which QSR is doing, but it doesn't eliminate the risk of a price surge like the one seen in coffee.

Increased investor and public demand for transparency in beef sourcing and deforestation policies.

As a major global purchaser of beef through the Burger King brand, QSR faces intense scrutiny over its supply chain's link to deforestation, particularly in South America. The company's goal is to eliminate deforestation by 2030 or sooner for priority commodities, including beef and coffee. This is a necessary but long-term commitment that requires immediate, transparent action to satisfy investors and consumers.

QSR is actively working on the ground to mitigate this risk. Burger King, in partnership with Cargill and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF), has a $10 million, five-year plan (started in 2022) to support cattle ranchers in adopting regenerative agriculture practices. This project aims to protect, restore, or improve grazing lands management on over 831,000 acres, directly addressing the land-use component of beef emissions. This kind of investment is crucial because beef emissions declined only slightly, from 52% of QSR's overall Scope 3 inventory in 2023 to 48% in 2024, showing how dominant this single commodity remains in the company's environmental footprint.

Next Step: Finance: Model the impact of a 5% increase in raw material costs combined with a 10% rise in average US labor costs on a typical Burger King franchisee's EBITDA by Friday.