FREYR Battery (FREY): 5 FORCES Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're trying to make sense of FREYR Battery's competitive footing now that the company has executed a dramatic, late-2024 pivot, effectively trading its battery ambitions for a U.S.-focused solar manufacturing play, headlined by the acquired 5 GW module facility from Trina Solar. Honestly, this shift gives us clearer near-term numbers to work with-they are targeting $75 million to $125 million in EBITDA for 2025-but it throws the old competitive playbook out the window. Before you decide where this stock stands in the current, subsidy-driven clean energy race, we need to map out the new reality. Below, I've broken down exactly how the Bargaining Power of Suppliers, Customer Leverage, Rivalry intensity, Threat of Substitutes, and New Entrants stack up against FREYR Battery's new solar footprint as we head into late 2025.

FREYR Battery (FREY) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers

You're looking at how much power the folks who sell FREYR Battery (T1 Energy)'s inputs have over the business. Honestly, for a company heavily involved in solar manufacturing now, raw material sourcing is a major lever for suppliers.

Raw material sourcing is global, creating price volatility for polysilicon and glass. The polysilicon market, for instance, has effectively split into two segments: China's domestic market and the Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM) for exports to the U.S. Prices for the GPM have dropped by nearly 30% over the last 18 months, largely because of U.S. trade actions like increased import tariffs. China's domestic capacity is massive, exceeding 3 million metric tons-that's three times what their domestic demand is-which keeps prices depressed there. To give you a sense of scale, as of April 2025, producing 1 watt of module capacity requires about 2.10 grams of polysilicon. Suppliers of these key inputs definitely feel the pressure from these global imbalances, but they also hold power when specific U.S.-qualifying materials are needed.

Dependence on Trina Solar's established supply chain for initial G1 Dallas ramp-up was a big factor early on. FREYR Battery (T1 Energy) acquired the 5 GW solar module manufacturing facility in Wilmer, Texas (G1 Dallas), from Trina Solar. The total consideration for this acquisition was substantial, including $100 million in cash, a $150 million loan note, and other components. The facility started production on November 1, 2024, and was expected to hit full production by the second half of 2025. In the first two months of 2025, the ramp-up was ahead of schedule, producing over 220MW, which beat the plan by 48%. This initial reliance on the acquired platform, which leveraged Trina Solar's global supply chains, meant suppliers connected to that existing structure had some leverage until internal sourcing matured.

Here's a quick look at how the two main U.S. facilities relate to supplier power:

Strategic partnerships like ITOCHU aim to localize and diversify the supply chain. Back in 2021, FREYR entered an agreement where ITOCHU would serve as a direct materials supplier for the planned battery production procurement. While this shows an early intent to lock in supply relationships, specific financial commitments or volumes tied to this partnership as of late 2025 were not readily apparent in the latest operational updates, which are heavily focused on the solar segment now.

Plans for the G2 Austin solar cell fab will vertically integrate, reducing external supplier power. This new 5GW solar cell facility represents a direct move to control the upstream supply chain for cells and wafers. The total investment for G2 Austin is up to $850 million. The plan targeted construction to start in mid-2025, with commercial production slated for the second half of 2026. This facility will house eight lines processing 210RN and 210N silicon wafers. Vertical integration here directly tackles the power of external cell and wafer suppliers by bringing that capability in-house. It's a defintely costly but necessary action to secure long-term cost control.

The supplier landscape for FREYR Battery (T1 Energy) is characterized by global commodity price swings and a strategic, multi-billion dollar effort to onshore critical manufacturing steps.

• Polysilicon GPM price decline over 18 months: nearly 30%.
• China domestic polysilicon capacity: over 3 million metric tons.
• G1 Dallas acquisition cost component (Cash): $100 million.
• G2 Austin planned investment: up to $850 million.
• G2 Austin anticipated production start: Second half of 2026.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

FREYR Battery (FREY) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of customers

You're looking at how much sway your big buyers have, and honestly, in the battery and solar space, that power is substantial. Large-scale utility and commercial customers are definitely looking for volume, and they are laser-focused on cost. Think about the scale; the G1 Dallas module assembly plant, which FREYR Battery acquired and operates under T1 G1 Dallas Solar Module (Trina) LLC, is expected to reach a 3.4 GW production capacity in 2025. That's a massive amount of product, and buyers know it gives them leverage on pricing.

Here's a quick look at the capacity and commitment landscape:

When you look at the secured volume, it's clear customers have locked in a portion of your output. Specifically, 30% of the G1 Dallas facility's 2025 production is already secured by firm U.S. customer contracts. While this secures near-term revenue, the remaining 70% is open to negotiation, giving those large buyers significant power over pricing for that uncommitted volume. It's a balancing act, for sure.

Switching costs for these major customers are generally high, which helps FREYR Battery retain them once a deal is signed. Major buyers are locked into long-term project planning and multi-year supply agreements. Consider the massive pipeline: FREYR Battery has secured conditional offtakes and one long-term sales agreement totaling approximately 130 GWh of cumulative capacity. Converting those conditional agreements into binding ones requires product samples, but once they commit to that 130 GWh volume, the cost and disruption of switching suppliers mid-stream are defintely high.

Customers also benefit from the regulatory environment, which can be a point of leverage. FREYR Battery's operational entity, T1 G1 Dallas Solar Module (Trina) LLC, has an obligation to take all reasonably required steps to ensure eligibility for 45X Credits with respect to the PV solar modules produced by the Project beginning January 1, 2026. This means customers benefit from the potential cost savings passed down from these U.S. manufacturing tax credits. However, you should note the political shifts; the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act,' signed on July 4, 2025, introduced enhanced Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions, with some applying to facilities beginning construction after December 31, 2025. This regulatory uncertainty means customers may push for lower prices now to offset future potential instability in the subsidy structure.

The leverage points for customers include:

• Demand for volume at the 3.4 GW scale.
• Negotiating power on the uncommitted 70% of G1 Dallas output.
• Leveraging the potential value of U.S. tax incentives.
• Long-term commitment evidenced by the 130 GWh of potential offtakes.

FREYR Battery (FREY) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at a market defined by massive scale and razor-thin margins, which makes FREYR Battery's competitive rivalry assessment particularly interesting given its recent pivot. Honestly, the rivalry in the solar module space is brutal, especially when you're a new entrant like FREYR Battery is now.

Intense competition from established, large-scale global solar module manufacturers

The global solar module market is characterized by persistent overcapacity, primarily driven by established players, particularly in China. This oversupply has kept prices depressed across the board, putting tremendous financial pressure on all industrial actors. For instance, the FOB China Chinese Module Marker (CMM) benchmark for TOPCon modules was reported stable at $0.085/W in late January 2025. Even with U.S. tariffs and logistics factored in, the global price pressure is the baseline reality you must contend with. Module stocks in China and Europe were estimated to be as high as 150 GW by the end of 2023, and while production cuts occurred, the market struggled to absorb this inventory throughout 2024 and into 2025.

FREYR Battery's entry via the acquisition of Trina Solar's 5 GW solar module facility in Wilmer, Texas, positions it immediately against these giants. The acquired facility, G1 Dallas, is targeting full production capacity by the second half of 2025. To compete, FREYR Battery is planning a vertically integrated approach, including a second 5 GW solar cell manufacturing facility (G2).

Here's a quick look at the pricing environment you are stepping into:

Rivalry is mitigated by the IRA's Section 45X tax credit for domestic production

The primary shield against the intense global price competition is the U.S. policy environment, specifically the Inflation Reduction Act's (IRA) Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit, or Section 45X. This credit is designed to make domestic production cost-competitive against lower-cost imports. For solar modules manufactured in the U.S., the credit can be a direct cash benefit, which is highly valuable for a company needing to establish profitability quickly. For example, a company could receive a credit of $0.07 per watt for eligible solar modules produced.

This incentive is critical because FREYR Battery's entire strategy hinges on leveraging U.S. manufacturing incentives following its pivot away from European battery ambitions. The ability to monetize this credit, potentially through transferability, helps offset the structural cost disadvantage against established, high-volume Asian competitors.

However, you need to map this benefit against its timeline:

• Credit available for products sold before December 31, 2032 (under current law).
• New provision accelerates expiration to December 31, 2025, for certain applications.
• The credit value phases down starting in 2030.

The global market is characterized by a significant solar panel glut and price pressure

As noted, the glut is the defining feature of the rivalry. Manufacturers are delivering low-price modules simply to secure cash flows. This environment forces even U.S. domestic producers to manage costs aggressively. The price stabilization seen in early 2025 was partly due to controlled production cuts in China and rising upstream costs, but the underlying overcapacity remains a constant threat to margin stability. Any hiccup in U.S. demand or a change in tariff enforcement could immediately translate into lower realized prices for FREYR Battery's output.

FREYR Battery is a new entrant in the solar space, targeting $75 million-$125 million in 2025 EBITDA

FREYR Battery is definitely a new player in the solar module manufacturing rivalry, having only acquired its first operational asset, the 5 GW G1 Dallas facility, in late 2024. The company's immediate financial goal reflects this transition: it has reiterated its 2025 EBITDA guidance of $75 million to $125 million. Furthermore, the company expects to exit 2025 at a full-year run rate EBITDA between $175 million and $225 million. This target is set against the backdrop of the intense rivalry and the need to rapidly scale production at the acquired facility to meet its contracted volumes, which stood at 30% of capacity already under contract.

FREYR Battery (FREY) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

Substitute products are cheaper, non-IRA compliant imported solar modules from Asia.

The threat from lower-cost, non-IRA compliant imported solar modules remains a significant pressure point, though recent tariffs have narrowed the gap. For instance, a SolarSpace panel, which cost roughly $0.22/W by the container in March 2025, jumped to about $0.297/W after the April 2025 tariff implementation. This compares to U.S.-made panels which cost around 31 cents per watt in 2024. FREYR Battery guides its own module pricing for 2025 in the range of $0.30-$0.32/W.

Non-solar energy generation (e.g., natural gas, nuclear) is a long-term energy substitute.

While FREYR Battery is focused on solar, the broader energy market substitutes for battery storage needs. In 2025, developers plan to add 4.4 GW of new natural gas-fired capacity in the United States. Natural gas facilities currently account for just under 43% of all U.S. generation capacity, with coal at 15%. Nuclear, wind, and hydro, alongside solar, represent over one-third of total capacity.

• Natural gas capacity additions planned for 2025: 4.4 GW.
• Natural gas share of total U.S. generation capacity: just under 43%.
• Coal share of total U.S. generation capacity: 15%.
• New utility-scale battery storage additions expected in 2025: 18.2 GW.

The pivot away from the semi-solid 24M battery tech reduces internal technology substitution risk.

FREYR Battery formally terminated its licensing agreements with 24M Technologies in November 2024. This strategic realignment away from the 24M semi-solid platform to a solar-centric model mitigates the risk associated with scaling that specific, less-proven battery technology. The company canceled its planned Georgia battery factory, which was a $2.6 billion project, as of Q1 2025. The European battery manufacturing assets, such as the Giga Arctic shell, are being explored for alternative uses, including conversion into a data center.

• 24M Technologies licensing agreement termination: November 2024.
• Value of canceled Georgia battery factory: $2.6 billion.
• EBITDA guidance for FY 2025 (Solar Focus): $75 million to $125 million.

High efficiency, domestically produced n-type modules offer a differentiated value proposition.

FREYR Battery's current value proposition centers on its domestic solar module production, which benefits from IRA incentives, differentiating it from imports. The G1 Dallas facility is on track to produce between 2.6-3 GW of modules for the 2025 fiscal year. The company plans to break ground on a second facility, G2, in Q2 2025, targeting an additional 5 GW of solar cell manufacturing capacity, with production slated for H2 2026.

• G1 Dallas module production target for FY 2025: 2.6-3 GW.
• Planned G2 solar cell capacity: 5 GW.
• G2 production start target: H2 2026.
• Projected production run-rate for G1 by H2 2025: 5.2 GW annualized.

FREYR Battery (FREY) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

You're analyzing the competitive landscape for FREYR Battery (FREY) as of late 2025, and the threat of new entrants is a major factor, largely shaped by massive government incentives clashing with high upfront costs and regulatory hurdles. Honestly, setting up a new battery gigafactory in the U.S. is not for the faint of heart, financially speaking.

High capital expenditure and time are required to build 5 GW scale U.S. manufacturing facilities.

Building out the necessary scale for battery manufacturing requires billions in capital expenditure and significant time, creating a natural moat against smaller players. For instance, FREYR Battery's initial capital investment for its Georgia facility was pegged at $1.7 billion, targeting a 34 GWh production rate in 2025, with plans to scale to 100 GWh by 2028. To put that scale in perspective, the joint venture between LG Energy Solution and Honda in Ohio projects an investment of $4.4 billion for a facility with 40 GWh annual capacity. The sheer financial commitment acts as a significant deterrent, even with policy support.

The required scale is immense, as the U.S. battery cell production pipeline was poised to reach 421.5 GWh per year in 2025, representing a 90 percent increase from the end of 2024. New entrants must plan for similar multi-gigawatt-hour capacities to be competitive.

Here's a quick look at the capital intensity for some major North American projects:

U.S. government subsidies (IRA) significantly lower the cost barrier, attracting new domestic players.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been a powerful magnet, effectively lowering the net cost barrier for entry and expansion. The policy incentives and tax credits have spurred announcements for over 100 new battery plants since its passage. This financial tailwind has helped close the price gap between U.S.-made batteries and those produced overseas, where China holds an estimated 80% market share in lithium-ion battery production. The American Clean Power Association estimates the industry has already committed $10 billion to $15 billion in investment in U.S. grid battery manufacturing and deployment in the last year alone, with a collective pledge of $100 billion by 2030. However, this attraction is tempered by new trade policy risks; for example, a newly imposed tariff of 93.5% on Chinese graphite imports in August 2025 could add approximately $1,000 to production costs per battery unit.

The IRA's influence is clear in the rapid capacity build-out, which tripled announced manufacturing capacity in one year. Still, new entrants must navigate the complexity of these incentives, as policy uncertainty, such as potential amendments or phase-outs of tax credits, creates significant risk for long-term investment decisions.

Trina Solar's asset acquisition provides an immediate, operational 5 GW platform, bypassing typical entry lag.

While the capital expenditure is high, some entrants are finding ways to leapfrog years of greenfield development. FREYR Battery itself executed such a move by acquiring Trina Solar's U.S. solar manufacturing assets for a total consideration of $340 million. This acquisition included an immediate, operational 5 GW solar module manufacturing facility in Wilmer, Texas, which began production in November 2024 and was expected to ramp to full capacity by H2 2025. This strategy provides an instant commercial and operating platform, bypassing the typical lag associated with site selection and construction.

FREYR Battery is now leveraging this platform as a base, targeting construction start for its next phase-a 5 GW solar cell manufacturing facility-in Q2 2025, with anticipated first production in H2 2026. This type of strategic acquisition demonstrates a viable, albeit expensive, path for new players to establish significant U.S. operational capacity quickly.

• Acquisition bypasses construction timeline.
• Immediate 5 GW operational platform secured.
• Total consideration was $340 million.
• Facility production expected to ramp by H2 2025.

Regulatory and permitting complexity in the U.S. acts as a non-financial barrier to entry.

Beyond the balance sheet, the non-financial barriers related to U.S. regulation and permitting can significantly extend timelines, which is a major risk when capital is tied up. Infrastructure challenges, including necessary grid upgrades and complex permitting processes, can extend project timelines by years. While the current administration has prioritized modernizing and expediting these processes for advanced manufacturing, the reality on the ground remains challenging for new sites.

The environment is characterized by a push-pull dynamic:

• Federal incentives aim to streamline permitting.
• Grid upgrade needs slow down facility interconnection.
• National security focus adds layers of supply chain scrutiny.
• Project cancellations, like those by Kore Power and FREYR Battery (in Europe, though relevant to U.S. risk perception), signal viability concerns.

Navigating environmental reviews and local zoning for a facility of this magnitude requires specialized expertise and patience, effectively raising the non-monetary cost of entry.