Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA): Business Model Canvas [Dec-2025 Updated]

Honestly, when you map out the Business Model Canvas for Sera Prognostics, Inc., you see a classic high-potential, slow-adoption story. They've got the goods-a test that demonstrated a 25% drop in neonatal risk and a 99% negative predictive value-but the revenue line for Q3 2025 was a mere $16,000, showing the payer adoption curve is still steep. The real story here is how they plan to convert that incredible clinical utility into dollars, supported by a solid $102.4 million cash position that buys them time through 2028 to nail down those crucial commercial contracts. Dive in below to see exactly how their key resources and activities are aligned to solve this commercialization puzzle.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Key Partnerships

You're looking at the structure Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) uses to drive adoption of the PreTRM Test, and the partnerships are central to their commercial strategy, especially as they transition from pivotal study publication to broader payer coverage.

Major commercial contracts with national health insurers like Anthem, Inc.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. established a novel strategic commercial partnership with Anthem, Inc. back in May 2021. At the time of that announcement, Anthem's health plans covered over 10% of U.S. pregnancies annually, and the insurer served more than 40 million members nationwide. This partnership was designed to make the PreTRM Test available to pregnant members under a multi-year contract. While the latest 2025 data doesn't specify new national contract values, Sera is currently engaging with organizations that possess both regional and national reach across multiple lines of business as of the third quarter of 2025.

Strategic engagement with Managed Medicaid plans for pilot programs in states like Nevada.

The focus on Managed Medicaid is a key driver for Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s commercial traction following the PRIME study results. As of September 30, 2025, the company had an inaugural pilot in Nevada actively enrolling Medicaid patients. This initial engagement in Nevada resulted in a $100,000 prepayment, which was reflected in the deferred revenue balance. Beyond Nevada, Sera Prognostics, Inc. is engaging with multiple payers across thirteen states in total, representing a strong commercial opportunity that covers approximately 33% of U.S. births and 35% of Medicaid births annually. The commercialization strategy targets initial state engagement in first and second wave states, including Nevada, Texas, and Massachusetts.

Key opinion leaders (KOLs) and clinical investigators for evidence generation and advocacy.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. is actively leveraging the rich data set from the PRIME study through engagement with key opinion leaders who help influence and set guidelines. The company is focused on getting published data included in professional society guideline reviews, such as those by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG). Dr. Brian Iriye, a principal investigator for the PRIME study, presented data at the inaugural Renaissance Conference in October 2025. The company is on track to publish the full PRIME study results in a peer-reviewed journal by the end of 2025.

The engagement with the medical community is structured around evidence dissemination:

• Continued engagement through two recent PRIME data presentations as of Q3 2025.
• Planning to present additional PRIME insights at the SMFM annual pregnancy meeting in February 2026.
• A budget impact study using PRIME Trial data was noted for November 12, 2025.

Reference laboratories and logistics partners for blood sample collection and transport.

While specific names or financial terms for reference laboratories and logistics partners aren't detailed in the latest public filings, the operational structure relies on the PreTRM Test being a single blood draw performed during weeks 18 through 20 of gestational age. The commercial strategy involves building out the necessary infrastructure to support adoption in targeted geographies. Sera Prognostics, Inc. successfully completed the hiring of sales representatives across all 6 of their target states by the third quarter of 2025 to support commercial activities.

Academic and medical institutions for continued investigator-initiated studies.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. plans to cultivate interest in continued investigator-initiated evidence generation for the PreTRM test-and-treat paradigm. This was a stated goal at the ACOG 2025 Annual Clinical & Scientific Meeting in May 2025. The shift in focus from Research and Development expenses, which decreased from $3.5 million in Q3 2024 to $3.3 million in Q3 2025, reflects a move away from large clinical study costs following the completion of the pivotal PRIME study and toward commercialization efforts.

Here's a quick look at the commercial team build-out supporting these partnerships as of late 2025:

Metric	Value as of Late 2025 Data
Sales Representatives Hired (Target States)	6
Medicaid Pilot States in Discussion (Total)	13
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Securities (Sep 30, 2025)	Approx. $102.4 million
Selling, General and Administrative Expenses (Q3 2025)	$5.7 million

The company is standing ready to hire more sales personnel as soon as they see traction in additional geographies, ideally staffing four to six geographies where reimbursement ground has been established by year-end.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Key Activities

You're hiring before product-market fit, so the activities Sera Prognostics, Inc. focuses on right now are all about proving the value of the PreTRM test and securing the funding to scale. Here's the quick math on what they are actively doing as of late 2025.

Research and development (R&D) of new pregnancy biomarker tests

Sera Prognostics, Inc. continues R&D, though spending shifted post-pivotal study completion. Research and development expenses for the third quarter of 2025 were reported at $3.3 million. This was a decrease from $3.5 million in the third quarter of 2024. The first quarter of 2025 also saw R&D expenses at $3.3 million, and the second quarter was also $3.3 million. This reduction is primarily due to lower clinical study costs following the completion of the pivotal PRIME study.

Generating clinical utility and health economic evidence, like the PRIME study results

The generation of evidence is a core activity, centered on the PRIME study. The abstract data from the Prematurity Risk Assessment Combined with Clinical Interventions for Improved Neonatal OutcoMEs (PRIME) study was presented at the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine 2025 Pregnancy Meeting on January 31, 2025. By November 24, 2025, the findings of the PRIME study were accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Health economics data from the study was also presented at the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Europe conference.

The study demonstrated significant clinical utility metrics:

• 20% reduction in Neonatal Morbidity and Mortality Index (NMI) among a broader intent-to-treat population.
• 22% reduction in NICU admissions among a broader intent-to-treat population.

Commercialization efforts focused on securing payer coverage and reimbursement

Commercialization is now a primary focus, heavily weighted toward payer engagement. Sera Prognostics, Inc. is advancing payer initiatives, including an inaugural pilot in Nevada actively enrolling Medicaid patients. The company is engaging with multiple payers across thirteen states. To fund these efforts, the company raised $57.5 million through a public follow-on offering in February 2025. As of September 30, 2025, cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale securities totaled approximately $102.4 million. This cash position is expected to fund the company through significant adoption milestones through 2028. The third quarter 2025 revenue was $16,000, but deferred revenue increased by $100,000 due to a prepayment from the Nevada Medicaid pilot.

Here are the key financial and commercial traction numbers for the third quarter of 2025:

Metric	Value (as of Q3 2025 End)
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Marketable Securities	$102.4 million
Q3 2025 Revenue	$16,000
Q3 2025 R&D Expense	$3.3 million
Q3 2025 SG&A Expense	$5.7 million
Medicaid Pilot States Engaged	Thirteen states (in discussions)

Processing the PreTRM test in a CLIA-certified laboratory environment

Sera Prognostics, Inc. operates the PreTRM Test within a CLIA-certified laboratory environment, as the PreTRM Test is the only broadly validated, commercially available blood-based biomarker test for early, individualized risk prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. Specific throughput or processing volume statistics for the CLIA-certified lab were not explicitly detailed in the Q3 2025 reports, so we focus on the test's established clinical validation.

Regulatory and intellectual property management for proprietary tests

Management of regulatory pathways and intellectual property rights remains a critical, ongoing activity. Risk factor disclosures consistently mention the need to manage potential changes in FDA regulation of laboratory-developed tests and the intellectual property rights protecting their tests and market position. Proceeds from the February 2025 fundraise are earmarked for accelerating preparations for expansion in the European Union and funding additional studies, including a potential submission to the U.S. FDA seeking broad approval of the PreTRM test.

• Financing secured in February 2025: $57.5 million.
• Cash runway expected through 2028.
• Potential FDA submission planned for the PreTRM test.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Key Resources

You're looking at the core assets Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) relies on to execute its business strategy in late 2025. These aren't just line items; they are the foundation for their precision pregnancy care offering.

The most immediate, tangible resource is the capital base. As of September 30, 2025, Sera Prognostics, Inc. held cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale securities totaling approximately $102.4 million. This financial buffer is key, as the company expects this amount to fund operations across significant adoption and commercial milestones through 2028. This liquidity was significantly bolstered by a public follow-on offering in February 2025, which raised net proceeds of approximately $57.5 million.

The scientific and data assets are paramount to the value proposition:

• Proprietary PreTRM blood-based biomarker test and associated algorithms.
• Extensive intellectual property (IP) protecting the proteomics and bioinformatics approach.
• Proprietary biobank of pregnancy-related biological samples and data.

The PreTRM® Test itself is the only broadly validated, commercially available blood-based test that predicts the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies, ordered by a medical professional between weeks 18 and 20 of gestation. The company's R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were $3.3 million, down from $3.5 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a shift away from pivotal study costs toward commercialization efforts.

The commercial execution relies on specialized teams focused on market access. This team is actively advancing payer discussions to drive adoption at scale. Here's a snapshot of the commercial traction as of the latest reporting:

Key Resource Metric	Value as of Late 2025 (Q3)
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Securities (Q3 2025)	$102.4 million
Projected Runway Coverage	Through 2028
Capital Raised (February 2025 Offering)	$57.5 million (Net Proceeds)
Active Payer Engagements (States)	10 Payers across 13 States
Medicaid Pilot Programs (Live)	First pilot in Nevada
Q3 2025 Revenue	$16,000

The commercial and market access teams are building awareness in preparation for the publication of PRIME study data. They are executing an integrated approach focused on achieving fair coverage, physician education, and patient awareness. The company is gaining traction across the payer landscape, targeting forward-thinking organizations with strong member bases in key states. Honestly, securing broad coverage at the employer, plan, and state levels is the critical next step to unlocking value at scale.

The biobank is a critical, though less quantified, asset. It supports the development and validation of the test. The company is also focused on potential new reimbursement methodologies, including new CPT codes and payment rates for those codes. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Value Propositions

You're looking at the core reason Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) exists: delivering actionable, early information to change a difficult outcome. The value proposition centers on transforming the management of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) by identifying risk long before symptoms appear.

The PreTRM Test measures and analyzes proteins in the blood, allowing physicians to identify which women are at increased risk for preterm birth during weeks 18 through 20 of pregnancy. This timing is critical, enabling proactive clinical interventions to improve neonatal outcomes.

The clinical validation from the PRIME study provides concrete evidence of this value:

• Demonstrated 25% reduction in neonatal morbidity and mortality index (NMI) in the pre-specified modified intent-to-treat population.
• Showed a 20% reduction in NMI and a 22% reduction in NICU admissions among a broader intent-to-treat population.
• The PreTRM Test is the only broadly validated, commercially available blood-based biomarker test that provides an early, accurate and individualized risk prediction for sPTB in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies.

The potential for significant healthcare cost reduction is substantial, given that the annual health care costs to manage short- and long-term complications of prematurity in the United States were estimated to be approximately $25 billion for 2016. By enabling earlier, targeted care, Sera Prognostics, Inc. aims to lower the need for costly Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) and extended hospital stays.

Furthermore, the test provides reassurance for the majority of the population. The reported negative predictive value of the PreTRM Test is 99%, meaning women not found to be at higher risk can have very high confidence of not delivering a premature infant.

Here's a quick look at the key performance metrics and cost context:

Metric/Context	Value/Amount
PRIME Study NMI Reduction (Modified Population)	25%
PRIME Study NICU Admissions Reduction (Broader Population)	22%
Test Window (Gestational Age)	Weeks 18 through 20
Negative Predictive Value (NPV)	99%
Estimated Annual US Healthcare Cost of Prematurity Complications (2016)	Approximately $25 billion

This combination of high predictive accuracy for risk stratification and proven clinical impact on neonatal outcomes is the core value proposition for physicians, payers, and employers alike.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Relationships

You're looking at how Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) builds and maintains connections with the key groups that drive adoption of the PreTRM Test. This isn't a self-service model; it's built on deep, targeted interaction, especially since the PRIME study results are now driving commercial efforts.

High-touch, consultative sales and education for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (MFM) specialists.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. focuses on leveraging clinical data to gain trust with high-level specialists. The company made sure to have a strong presence at the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) 2025 Annual Clinical & Scientific Meeting between May 16-18 to cultivate interest in the PreTRM test-and-treat paradigm. Furthermore, health economics data was presented at the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Europe conference during the third quarter of 2025 to support the clinical case. The investment in commercial infrastructure is evident in the Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses, which were $5.9 million in the first quarter of 2025 and $5.7 million in the third quarter of 2025, showing continued spending on targeted commercial activities and strategic headcount additions to support this engagement.

Direct, strategic engagement with payers to secure coverage and reimbursement policies.

Securing payer coverage is a critical next step following the PRIME study results. Sera Prognostics, Inc. is actively advancing discussions with managed Medicaid plans that collectively cover 33% of U.S. births and 35% of Medicaid births annually. The company is currently engaging with 10 payers across 13 states, a mix of both national and regional Medicaid and commercial entities. This effort includes launching an inaugural pilot program in Nevada, which resulted in a $100,000 prepayment that increased deferred revenue as of September 30, 2025. The Medicaid opportunity is viewed as representing approximately half of the market opportunity for the PreTRM Test.

Here's a look at the payer engagement footprint as of late 2025:

Engagement Metric	Value/Count	Period/Context
Active Payers Engaged	10	Q3 2025
States with Active Payer Engagement	13	Q3 2025
Medicaid Pilot Programs Launched	1 (Nevada)	Q3 2025
Medicaid Births Covered by Plans in Discussion	35%	Q3 2025
Prepayment from Nevada Pilot	$100,000	As of September 30, 2025

The focus on Medicaid is clear, as the company is pursuing implementation pilots in three states following the PRIME study results.

Educational outreach and materials for pregnant patients and OB/GYNs.

The PreTRM Test itself is positioned as an educational tool, predicting a patient's individual risk of spontaneous preterm delivery through a single blood draw performed during weeks 18 through 20 of gestational age. The company also offers the complimentary Complications Summary Report via the LikeMine platform to offer comparisons to women like the patient. The overall commercial investment, reflected in SG&A expenses, supports the necessary awareness building for this paradigm shift in prenatal care.

Dedicated customer service for test ordering, sample logistics, and results reporting.

While specific customer service metrics aren't public, the investment in commercial operations suggests dedicated support infrastructure. The Chief Commercial Officer, Lee Anderson, was appointed in May 2025, bringing over 30 years of experience in sales, marketing, customer service, strategic accounts, and training. This leadership addition signals a commitment to building out the necessary infrastructure to handle test ordering, logistics, and reporting as adoption scales. The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $16,000, indicating the start of commercial transactions that require this support structure.

• SG&A expenses for Q3 2025 were $5.7 million, up from $5.4 million in Q3 2024, reflecting investment in commercial activities.
• The company is focused on customer onboarding and clinical integration as a key part of its commercial traction.
• The PreTRM Test is the only broadly validated, commercially available blood-based biomarker test for this prediction.

Finance: review Q4 2025 SG&A spend against Q3 actuals by end of next week.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Channels

The Channels block for Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) centers on getting the PreTRM Test to providers and securing payment for its use, heavily leaning on payer negotiations and targeted commercial deployment.

Direct commercial sales force targeting key healthcare systems and providers.

• The company is expanding its commercial efforts in selected geographies in the United States, leveraging proceeds from a $57.5 million public follow-on offering completed in February 2025.
• As of September 30, 2025, Sera Prognostics, Inc. had a total of 118 employees.
• Selling, general and administrative expenses for the third quarter of 2025 were $5.7 million, reflecting continued investment in targeted commercial activities and strategic headcount additions.
• Leadership was strengthened with the appointment of Marisol Urbano as Head of Commercial Operations in the third quarter of 2025.

Direct laboratory-developed test (LDT) model for test processing and results delivery.

• The PreTRM Test measures and analyzes proteins in the blood to provide an individualized risk prediction for spontaneous premature delivery.
• The test permits physicians to identify which women are at increased risk during the weeks 18 through 20 of pregnancy.
• The company is focused on commercialization following the completion of the pivotal PRIME study, with Research and Development expenses decreasing to $3.3 million in Q2 2025 from the prior year period due to lower clinical study costs.

Payer networks (commercial and government) as the primary reimbursement channel.

Securing broad coverage is the critical next step to unlocking value at scale, with significant progress noted in payer engagement as of late 2025.

• Sera Prognostics, Inc. was engaging with multiple payers across thirteen states in the third quarter of 2025.
• An inaugural Medicaid pilot was launched in Nevada during Q3 2025, actively enrolling Medicaid patients.
• Discussions are advancing with managed Medicaid plans representing coverage for 33% of U.S. births and 35% of Medicaid births annually.
• The company is actively pursuing broader coverage at the employer, plan, and state levels.

The following table summarizes key financial metrics that underpin the investment in these commercial and reimbursement channels as of the latest reported quarter in 2025.

Metric	Value (Q3 2025)	Context
Revenue	$16,000	Third quarter of 2025
Selling, General & Administrative Expenses	$5.7 million	Third quarter of 2025
Cash and Equivalents	$102.4 million	As of September 30, 2025
Net Loss	$7.8 million	Third quarter of 2025

Digital and medical conference presence for physician and patient awareness.

• Continued engagement with the medical community included presenting health economics data at the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Europe conference.
• A presentation by Dr. Brian Iriye was given at the inaugural Renaissance Conference: The Three Ages of the Woman.
• Sera Prognostics, Inc. was expecting to have a strong presence at the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) 2025 Annual Clinical & Scientific Meeting on May 16-18.
• The company is investing in targeted awareness initiatives, as reflected in the $5.7 million SG&A spend for Q3 2025.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Segments

You're looking at the customer segments for Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) as we close out 2025. The commercial strategy is clearly focused on demonstrating the economic value of the PreTRM® Test to the entities that pay for care, which then drives adoption by the clinicians who order the test. This is a classic payer-provider adoption dynamic, but with a clear, high-stakes clinical endpoint: premature birth.

The company's financial reality in Q3 2025-with trailing twelve-month revenue of $95K and cash reserves of approximately $102.4 million as of September 30, 2025-shows they are still in a heavy investment phase, making payer coverage the absolute priority for unlocking scale.

US Healthcare Payers (Commercial Insurers and Managed Medicaid plans)

Payers are the linchpin for Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) right now. The focus is on proving the health economic benefits, especially the potential to reduce costs associated with preterm birth. Medicaid plans are a key target, representing what management views as approximately half of the market opportunity for the PreTRM® Test.

Here's a snapshot of payer engagement as of late 2025:

Payer Type/Initiative	Status/Metric (Late 2025)	Financial/Volume Data Point
Medicaid Pilot Programs	Inaugural pilot launched in Nevada (Q3 2025)	Received a $100,000 prepayment from the Nevada pilot.
Total Payer Engagement	Engaging with payers across thirteen states	Multi-year contract in place with Elevance Health (which covers more than 10% of U.S. pregnancies annually).
Target Market Focus	Pursuing coverage at the employer, plan, and state levels	Discussions ongoing with several Medicaid plans across three states (as of Q1 2025).

Securing broad coverage is the critical next step to unlocking value at scale, as noted by leadership.

Healthcare Providers, primarily OB/GYNs and MFM specialists

Providers are the gatekeepers who order the test based on clinical need and, increasingly, payer coverage. Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) is cultivating interest through evidence dissemination.

• Attended the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) 2025 Annual Clinical & Scientific Meeting (May 16-18) to cultivate interest in the PreTRM test-and-treat paradigm.
• Presented health economics data at the International Society for Pharmarmacic Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPORE) Europe conference in Q3 2025.
• Presented PRIME study outcomes at the Renaissance conference in October 2025.
• The company is executing an integrated approach including physician education.

Pregnant women with asymptomatic, singleton pregnancies at 18-20 weeks gestation

This group represents the ultimate beneficiary and the population for whom the test is designed to provide individualized risk assessment. While a specific count of this segment targeted in 2025 isn't public, the clinical context is clear:

• The test provides pivotal information to enable more informed decision-making during pregnancy.
• Ten percent of all births in the U.S. are preterm.
• Traditional methods fail to detect approximately 80% of pregnancies that result in spontaneous preterm deliveries.
• The PRIME study demonstrated a 25% reduction in neonatal morbidity and mortality in the modified intent-to-treat population.
• The test supports a potential 18% reduction in neonatal hospital length of stay for high-risk cases.

Hospitals and health systems seeking to improve maternal and neonatal quality metrics

Hospitals and health systems are motivated by quality metrics, reducing readmissions, and managing the high costs associated with neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) stays.

• Partners recognize the potential to reduce NICU admissions by 20%.
• The value proposition centers on improving maternal and neonatal outcomes while significantly lowering costs driven by preterm birth.
• The company is focused on generating data on health economic benefits to support adoption by these systems.

Finance: draft a sensitivity analysis on payer coverage milestones vs. cash runway by next Tuesday.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Cost Structure

You're looking at the core expenditures Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) is facing as it pushes its commercial strategy forward in late 2025. The cost structure is heavily weighted toward scaling the business and advancing the science.

The primary cost drivers for Sera Prognostics, Inc. in the third quarter of 2025 centered on expanding market reach and maintaining the scientific foundation. Total operating expenses for the period ending September 30, 2025, reached $9.0 million.

Here's how the major components of that spending broke down for Q3 2025:

• High Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses for commercial expansion were reported at $5.7 million.
• Research and Development (R&D) costs for clinical studies and ongoing science were $3.3 million.

The remaining costs, which cover operating the CLIA-certified diagnostic laboratory, legal and regulatory compliance, and general corporate overhead, are implicitly covered within the total operating expenses, as the sum of the reported SG&A and R&D equals the total operating expense figure provided in the financial summaries. It's defintely a heavy lift to manage these fixed and semi-fixed costs while revenue generation is still ramping up.

Here is a quick look at the key Q3 2025 expense figures:

Cost Category	Q3 2025 Amount (in thousands)
Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A)	$5,700
Research and Development (R&D)	$3,300
Total Operating Expenses	$9,000

The R&D spend of $3.3 million in Q3 2025 was noted as lower than the prior year, primarily because the pivotal PRIME study completion reduced third-party analysis costs. This signals a shift in focus from large-scale trial execution to commercialization activities, which is reflected in the higher SG&A spend.

Costs associated with operating the CLIA-certified diagnostic laboratory are a necessary component of the Cost of Revenue and overhead, supporting the delivery of the PreTRM Test. Legal and regulatory costs for intellectual property protection and compliance with bodies like the FDA are ongoing risks that must be factored into the general corporate overhead, which is bundled into the SG&A line item.

• The investment in SG&A at $5.7 million reflects continued investment in targeted commercial activities.
• This commercial push includes strategic headcount additions to support market awareness ahead of key data publications.
• General corporate overhead and public company compliance costs are absorbed within the SG&A structure.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) - Canvas Business Model: Revenue Streams

You're looking at the revenue side of Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) as of late 2025, and honestly, the picture is one of early-stage commercialization where upfront payments and pilot programs are temporarily overshadowing test-by-test revenue. The core business model relies on getting the PreTRM Test covered by payers, which is where the real money is set to flow.

Revenue from the PreTRM test, currently very low (Q3 2025: $16,000). This figure represents the actual recognized revenue from tests processed during the third quarter of 2025, a decrease from $29,000 reported in the same period of 2024. It shows the current state of direct test utilization revenue before broader insurance adoption kicks in.

Here's a quick look at the key financial metrics impacting revenue recognition for Q3 2025:

Metric	Amount (Q3 2025)
Recognized Revenue (PreTRM Test)	$16,000
Deferred Revenue Increase (Prepayments)	$100,000
Cash, Cash Equivalents, Securities (as of 9/30/2025)	Approximately $102.4 million

Reimbursement payments from commercial and government payers upon coverage adoption. This is the primary long-term revenue driver. Sera Prognostics is actively engaging with payers across thirteen states, signaling significant commercial groundwork. The potential here is substantial, considering Medicaid already covers an estimated 40% of US births. Landing these coverage decisions is what transforms the low current revenue into scalable income.

Deferred revenue from upfront payments for Medicaid pilot programs. You see a clear example of this in the Q3 2025 results. The company received a $100,000 prepayment from the first Medicaid pilot, which is located in Nevada. This prepayment immediately increased the deferred revenue balance by $100,000 as of September 30, 2025. This cash is recognized as revenue only as the service is delivered over the contract period, so it's a leading indicator of future recognized revenue.

Potential future revenue from a pipeline of other pregnancy diagnostic tests. While the PreTRM Test is the current revenue source, the business model anticipates future streams from a robust pipeline. This pipeline focuses on other complications of pregnancy, which could diversify revenue beyond just preterm birth risk prediction. The current cash position of approximately $102.4 million as of September 30, 2025, is intended to fund operations through significant adoption milestones, which includes advancing this pipeline.

The current revenue streams are characterized by:

• Reliance on PreTRM Test for all current recognized revenue.
• Significant non-recognized revenue sitting in deferred balances.
• Active payer negotiations in multiple states.
• A pipeline aimed at future market expansion.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.