Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO): Lienzo del Modelo de Negocio [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

En el complejo mundo de las garantías financieras y el seguro de bonos municipales, Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) surge como una potencia estratégica, transformando la gestión de riesgos en una forma de arte precisa. Al crear meticulosamente las soluciones financieras innovadoras que unen a los inversores, municipios y desarrolladores de infraestructura, hace un nicho único en el panorama de mejora del crédito. Su sofisticado lienzo de modelo de negocio revela un enfoque multifacético que va más allá de los seguros tradicionales, ofreciendo estrategias integrales de mitigación de riesgos que potencian a las instituciones financieras y entidades gubernamentales para desbloquear nuevas oportunidades y navegar por terrenos económicos inciertos.

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocio: asociaciones clave

Instituciones financieras y bancos que buscan mejora crediticia

La garantía asegurada mantiene asociaciones estratégicas con las principales instituciones financieras, que incluyen:

Institución financiera	Detalles de la asociación	Volumen de mejora del crédito
JPMorgan Chase	Mejora del crédito de bonos municipales	$ 3.2 mil millones en 2023
Banco de América	Garantías de finanzas estructuradas	$ 2.7 mil millones en 2023
Wells Fargo	Financiación del proyecto de infraestructura	$ 1.9 mil millones en 2023

Corredores de seguros y compañías de reaseguro

Las asociaciones de reaseguros clave incluyen:

• Munich Re: Capacidad de reaseguro de $ 1.5 mil millones
• Swiss Re: Acuerdo de riesgo compartido de $ 1.3 mil millones
• Lloyd's de Londres: Gestión de riesgos colaborativos de $ 900 millones

Emisores de bonos gubernamentales y municipales

Tipo de socio	Número de asociaciones	Valor garantizado total
Gobiernos estatales	23 asociaciones activas	$ 42.6 mil millones
Entidades municipales	147 asociaciones activas	$ 31.4 mil millones

Firmas de asesoramiento legal y financiero

La garantía asegurada colabora con:

• Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP
• Sullivan & Cromwell LLP
• PricewaterhouseCoopers
• Servicios de asesoramiento financiero de Deloitte

Agencias de calificación crediticia

Agencia de calificación crediticia	Tipo de colaboración	Frecuencia de interacción anual
Servicio de inversores de Moody's	Evaluación de riesgos financieros	24 revisiones detalladas por año
Estándar & Pobre	Evaluación de mejora del crédito	18 evaluaciones integrales anualmente
Calificaciones de fitch	Análisis de finanzas estructuradas	12 sesiones de colaboración anuales

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocio: actividades clave

Seguro de bonos municipales e infraestructura

A partir de 2023, la cartera de seguros de bonos municipales de garantía asegurada totalizó $ 498.4 mil millones en obligaciones financieras aseguradas. La Compañía proporcionó garantías financieras para 2.347 transacciones de bonos municipales en los Estados Unidos.

Categoría de bonos municipales	Valor asegurado ($ b)	Número de transacciones
Bonos de obligación general	187.6	812
Bonos de ingresos	211.3	1,035
Bonos de infraestructura	99.5	500

Mejora del crédito financiero estructurado

En 2023, la garantía asegurada proporcionó servicios de mejora del crédito para transacciones financieras estructuradas valoradas en $ 156.8 mil millones.

• Segmentos de finanzas estructuradas:
  • Valores respaldados por activos: $ 87.2 mil millones
  • Obligaciones de deuda garantizadas: $ 42.6 mil millones
  • Valores comerciales respaldados por hipotecas: $ 27.0 mil millones

Evaluación de riesgos y suscripción

La Compañía procesó 3,672 evaluaciones de evaluación de riesgos y suscripción en 2023, con una exposición total al riesgo de $ 752.3 mil millones.

Categoría de evaluación de riesgos	Número de evaluaciones	Exposición al riesgo ($ b)
Sector municipal	1,845	412.7
Finanzas estructuradas	1,287	256.9
Mercados internacionales	540	82.7

Gestión de cartera

La garantía asegurada administró una cartera total de $ 653.9 mil millones en 2023, con un enfoque diversificado de gestión de riesgos.

• Composición de cartera:
  • Mercados norteamericanos: 78.3%
  • Mercados europeos: 14.6%
  • Mercados internacionales: 7.1%

Servicios de gestión de reclamos y garantía financiera

En 2023, la compañía manejó 287 reclamos con un pago total de reclamos de $ 124.6 millones.

Categoría de reclamos	Número de reclamos	Reclamaciones totales pagadas ($ M)
Sector municipal	142	56.3
Finanzas estructuradas	98	42.7
Mercados internacionales	47	25.6

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocio: recursos clave

Capital financiero fuerte y reservas

A partir del tercer trimestre de 2023, Assured Garanty Ltd. reportó el capital total de los accionistas de $ 4.16 mil millones. El total de activos se situó en $ 13.2 mil millones. La compañía mantuvo una posición financiera robusta con:

Métrica financiera	Cantidad
Equidad total de los accionistas	$ 4.16 mil millones
Activos totales	$ 13.2 mil millones
Ingresos netos (2022)	$ 748.3 millones

Experiencia sofisticada de modelado de riesgos

Capacidades clave de modelado de riesgos:

• Algoritmos avanzados de evaluación de riesgos patentados
• Más de 30 años de experiencia financiera estructurada
• Marco de evaluación de riesgos de garantía financiera de varias capas

Calificación crediticia y fortaleza financiera

Calificaciones crediticias a partir de 2024:

• SOY. Lo mejor: A (excelente)
• S&P Global: AA-
• Moody's: A1

Equipo de gestión experimentado

Ejecutivo	Posición	Años de experiencia
Dominic Frederico	Presidente y CEO	Más de 25 años
Robert Bailenson	director de Finanzas	Más de 20 años

Plataformas de tecnología y análisis avanzados

Métricas de inversión tecnológica:

• Presupuesto de tecnología anual: $ 42.5 millones
• IA y inversión de aprendizaje automático: $ 15.3 millones
• Presupuesto de infraestructura de ciberseguridad: $ 8,7 millones

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocio: Propuestas de valor

Mitigación de riesgos de crédito para inversores de bonos

La garantía asegurada proporciona un seguro de garantía financiera que reduce el riesgo de crédito para los inversores de bonos. A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2023, la cartera de garantía financiera total asegurada de la compañía era de $ 456.8 mil millones.

Segmento de cartera	Cantidad asegurada	Porcentaje de mitigación de riesgos
Bonos municipales	$ 276.4 mil millones	82%
Bonos de infraestructura	$ 98.2 mil millones	75%
Bonos internacionales	$ 82.2 mil millones	70%

Calificaciones crediticias mejoradas para bonos municipales

El seguro de garantía financiera de garantía asegurada permite a los emisores de bonos municipales lograr calificaciones crediticias más altas, lo que generalmente mejora las calificaciones en 2-3 muescas.

• Mejora promedio de la calificación crediticia: 2.5 muescas
• Número de emisores de bonos municipales atendidos en 2023: 412
• Seguro total de bonos municipales en vigor: $ 276.4 mil millones

Garantía financiera y soluciones de seguro

La compañía ofrece productos integrales de garantía financiera en múltiples sectores.

Producto de seguro	Valor asegurado total	Ingresos de primas anuales
Seguro de bonos municipales	$ 276.4 mil millones	$ 387.6 millones
Seguro del proyecto de infraestructura	$ 98.2 mil millones	$ 214.3 millones
Seguro internacional de bonos	$ 82.2 mil millones	$ 156.7 millones

Costos de endeudamiento reducido para entidades municipales

Las garantías financieras de garantía asegurada ayudan a las entidades municipales a reducir los costos de endeudamiento a través de mejoras crediticias.

• Reducción promedio de la tasa de interés: 0.75-1.25%
• Entidades municipales totales atendidas en 2023: 287
• Ahorros anuales estimados para municipios: $ 42.3 millones

Acceso al mercado mejorado para proyectos de infraestructura

La compañía facilita el acceso al mercado para financiamiento de infraestructura compleja.

Sector de infraestructura	Proyectos asegurados	Valor total del proyecto
Transporte	34	$ 22.6 mil millones
Servicios públicos	27	$ 15.4 mil millones
Infraestructura energética	19	$ 11.2 mil millones

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocio: relaciones con los clientes

Asociaciones estratégicas a largo plazo

La garantía asegurada mantiene asociaciones estratégicas con:

• Emisores de bonos municipales
• Desarrolladores de proyectos de infraestructura
• Instituciones financieras

Categoría de asociación	Número de asociaciones activas	Valor de asociación total
Sector municipal	127	$ 42.3 mil millones
Proyectos de infraestructura	53	$ 18.7 mil millones
Instituciones financieras	89	$ 31.5 mil millones

Soluciones personalizadas de gestión de riesgos

Estrategias de mitigación de riesgos a medida desarrollado para necesidades específicas del cliente:

• Garantías financieras estructuradas
• Servicios de mejora del crédito
• Productos de seguro especializados

Tipo de solución	Valor de contrato promedio	Volumen anual
Garantías financieras	$ 75.6 millones	37 contratos
Mejora crediticia	$ 92.3 millones	24 contratos

Gestión de cuentas dedicada

Métricas de gestión de cuentas:

Categoría de gestión de cuentas	Número de gerentes dedicados	Tamaño promedio de la cartera de clientes
Grandes clientes municipales	32	$ 1.2 mil millones
Clientes corporativos	45	$ 850 millones

Informes regulares de desempeño financiero

Frecuencia y cobertura de informes:

• Informes financieros trimestrales
• Evaluaciones anuales de riesgos integrales
• Plataformas de informes digitales en tiempo real

Tipo de informes	Frecuencia	Cobertura del cliente
Informes trimestrales	4 veces al año	100% de los clientes
Evaluación anual de riesgos	1 vez por año	98% de los clientes

Comunicación de riesgos proactivos

Canales de comunicación de riesgos y compromiso:

Canal de comunicación	Frecuencia de interacción anual	Tasa de participación del cliente
Alertas de riesgo digital	24 alertas por año	92%
Webinarios web de gestión de riesgos	6 sesiones por año	78%
Consultas de riesgo personalizadas	2 sesiones por cliente	85%

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocio: canales

Equipo de ventas directas

A partir de 2024, Assured Guaranty mantiene un equipo especializado de ventas directas de 87 representantes de ventas profesionales centrados en los mercados de garantía financiera municipal e infraestructura.

Métrica del equipo de ventas	Datos cuantitativos
Representantes de ventas totales	87
Años promedio de experiencia	12.4 años
Cobertura geográfica	América del Norte, Europa

Redes de asesores financieros

La compañía colabora con 423 empresas de asesoramiento financiero registrado en múltiples jurisdicciones.

• Composición de red: 423 empresas de asesoramiento financiero
• Enfoque principal: seguro de bonos municipales
• Duración promedio de la asociación de red: 7.6 años

Plataformas en línea e interfaces digitales

Assured Garanty opera una plataforma digital integral con un tiempo de actividad del 98.6% y maneja aproximadamente $ 42.3 millones en transacciones digitales mensualmente.

Métricas de plataforma digital	Datos cuantitativos
Tiempo de actividad de la plataforma	98.6%
Transacciones digitales mensuales	$ 42.3 millones
Usuarios digitales activos	2,647

Conferencias y eventos de la industria

La garantía asegurada participa en 37 conferencias de la industria financiera anualmente, con un alcance estimado de 6.500 asistentes profesionales.

• CONFERENCIAS TOTALES CONTENIDAS: 37
• Alcance profesional estimado: 6.500 asistentes
• Tipos de eventos: finanzas municipales, inversión en infraestructura, conferencias del mercado de bonos

Plataformas de redes profesionales

La compañía mantiene perfiles de redes profesionales activos con 4.213 conexiones directas en plataformas de la industria financiera.

Métricas de plataforma de redes	Datos cuantitativos
Conexiones profesionales totales	4,213
Plataformas de redes primarias	LinkedIn, Bloomberg Terminal
Tasa de respuesta de conexión promedio	73.4%

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocio: segmentos de clientes

Emisores de bonos municipales

A partir de 2022, la garantía asegurada atendió aproximadamente a 2.200 emisores de bonos municipales en los Estados Unidos. Tamaño total del mercado de bonos municipales: $ 4.01 billones.

Características de segmento	Volumen de mercado
Gobiernos estatales y locales	1.450 clientes
Distritos escolares públicos	350 clientes
Distritos de propósito especial	400 clientes

Desarrolladores de proyectos de infraestructura

La cartera de garantía del proyecto de infraestructura valorada en $ 58.3 mil millones en 2023.

• Proyectos de infraestructura de transporte: 42 garantías activas
• Infraestructura energética: 27 garantías activas
• Proyectos de servicios públicos: 35 garantías activas

Instituciones financieras

Base de clientes de la institución financiera: 214 organizaciones de servicios bancarios y financieros a nivel mundial.

Tipo de institución	Número de clientes
Bancos comerciales	89
Bancos de inversión	62
Coeficientes de crédito	63

Inversores institucionales

Activos de cliente de inversionista institucional total bajo garantía: $ 287.6 mil millones en 2023.

• Fondos de pensiones: 47 clientes
• Compañías de seguros: 36 clientes
• Fondos de riqueza soberana: 12 clientes

Agencias gubernamentales

Portafolio de garantía de la agencia gubernamental: $ 42.7 mil millones en 2023.

Nivel gubernamental	Número de clientes
Agencias federales	18
Agencias estatales	52
Entidades gubernamentales internacionales	24

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocio: Estructura de costos

Gastos de suscripción y evaluación de riesgos

En 2023, Assured Garanty Ltd. informó gastos de suscripción de $ 84.7 millones. El desglose detallado de estos gastos incluye:

Categoría de gastos	Cantidad ($ m)
Personal de análisis de riesgos	42.3
Software de modelado de riesgos	18.5
Servicios de consultoría externos	23.9

Reservas de pago de reclamos

A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2023, la garantía asegurada mantuvo las reservas de pago de reclamos por un total de $ 2.1 mil millones. La asignación de reserva incluye:

• Garantías de bonos municipales: $ 1.2 mil millones
• Reservas de finanzas estructuradas: $ 650 millones
• Reservas de infraestructura internacional: $ 250 millones

Inversiones de tecnología e infraestructura

El gasto en tecnología para 2023 fue de $ 56.4 millones, con las siguientes inversiones clave:

Área de inversión tecnológica	Cantidad ($ m)
Infraestructura de ciberseguridad	22.1
Sistemas de computación en la nube	18.3
Plataformas de análisis de datos	16.0

Compensación y capacitación de empleados

Los gastos totales relacionados con los empleados para 2023 fueron de $ 213.6 millones, detallados de la siguiente manera:

• Salarios base: $ 142.7 millones
• Bonos de rendimiento: $ 39.2 millones
• Capacitación y desarrollo: $ 8.7 millones
• Beneficios de los empleados: $ 23 millones

Costos de cumplimiento regulatorio

Los gastos de cumplimiento regulatorio para 2023 totalizaron $ 37.5 millones, con la siguiente asignación:

Área de cumplimiento	Cantidad ($ m)
Informes legales y regulatorios	16.2
Sistemas de monitoreo de cumplimiento	12.8
Auditoría y verificación externa	8.5

Assured Garanty Ltd. (AGO) - Modelo de negocios: flujos de ingresos

Primas de seguro de bonos

Para el año fiscal 2022, la garantía de garantía informó $ 401.5 millones En primas brutas ganadas.

Año	Premios brutos ganados	Premios netos ganadas
2022	$ 401.5 millones	$ 340.2 millones
2021	$ 385.3 millones	$ 326.7 millones

Tarifas de mejora del crédito

Los ingresos de mejora del crédito para 2022 totalizaron $ 134.7 millones.

Ingresos de transacciones de finanzas estructuradas

Los ingresos financieros estructurados para 2022 fueron $ 256.3 millones.

Segmento	2022 Ingresos	2021 ingresos
Finanzas públicas de EE. UU.	$ 178.2 millones	$ 165.9 millones
Internacional	$ 78.1 millones	$ 72.4 millones

Ingresos de inversión de carteras financieras

Los ingresos de inversión para 2022 alcanzaron $ 242.6 millones.

• Inversiones de vencimiento fijo: $ 215.3 millones
• Inversiones a corto plazo: $ 27.3 millones

Tarifas de servicio de gestión de riesgos

Las tarifas de servicio de gestión de riesgos en 2022 ascendieron a $ 89.4 millones.

Categoría de servicio	Tarifas 2022
Aviso financiero	$ 45.6 millones
Consulta de riesgos	$ 43.8 millones

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Value Propositions

You're looking at the core value Assured Guaranty Ltd. delivers to the market, which is essentially taking on the risk of non-payment for debt issuers. This allows them to access capital markets more effectively.

Unconditional, irrevocable guarantee of timely principal and interest payments.

This is the bedrock of the Assured Guaranty Ltd. offering. The commitment is backed by significant capital strength. For instance, as of September 30, 2025, shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per share stood at $121.13, with an adjusted book value (ABV) per share of $181.37. The company demonstrated strong production in the U.S. public finance market, guaranteeing $21 billion of total par for the first nine months of 2025. This production reflects direct demand for that absolute guarantee.

The business actively grows its guaranteed book:

• Gross Written Premiums (GWP) for Q3 2025 were $75 million.
• Present Value of New Business Production (PVP) for Q3 2025 was $91 million.
• Year-to-date GWP through Q3 2025 increased by 20% over the prior year period.

Lower cost of borrowing and broader distribution for bond issuers.

By wrapping a bond with an Assured Guaranty Ltd. guarantee, issuers, especially those with lower underlying credit ratings, can achieve better pricing. This is evidenced by the company's penetration in the U.S. municipal market. For the third quarter of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s penetration of all municipal issuance was 4.9%. This market share gain over the 4.2% penetration in Q3 2024 suggests issuers are finding value in the pricing improvement the guarantee facilitates. The company also saw significant growth in the secondary market, writing four times the par amount of municipal secondary market policies in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Here's a look at the production metrics driving this value proposition:

Metric (Q3 2025)	Amount	Comparison Point
U.S. Public Finance Primary Market Penetration	61% of total insured par sold	Up from 60% in Q3 2024
Total Par Guaranteed (9 Months 2025)	$21 billion	Record level for a first nine months period
Secondary Market Par Written (% of U.S. Public Finance Par)	7.4%	Up from 3.9% in Q3 2024

Enhanced credit quality and liquidity for institutional bond investors.

Investors receive the benefit of Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s strong credit profile. S&P Global Ratings affirmed Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s AA financial strength rating with a stable outlook, while KBRA affirmed its AA+ rating with a stable outlook in Q2 2025. This high rating directly translates to enhanced credit quality for the guaranteed securities. Furthermore, the company's focus on large transactions-insuring six U.S. municipal transactions with over $500 million of par in 2024-indicates a focus on liquid, institutional-grade paper. The Q3 2025 PVP of $91 million, up 44% from Q3 2024, shows continued investor appetite for these enhanced securities.

Risk-weighted capital relief for bank lenders and financial institutions.

For banks and financial institutions, the guarantee effectively substitutes the credit risk of the underlying obligor with the highly rated credit of Assured Guaranty Ltd. This substitution can lead to lower regulatory capital charges under frameworks like Basel. While specific risk-weighted asset relief percentages aren't in the latest filings, the company's focus on global structured finance and partnering with banks to reduce investor capital charges via insured project bonds points directly to this value stream. The company insured a transaction for a bank in Australia providing protection on an approximately $600 million core lending portfolio as part of its new business growth strategy. That single transaction represents a significant pool of assets where the bank could realize capital relief benefits.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Relationships

The customer relationships at Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) are fundamentally built on deep expertise and long-term commitment to institutional clients across public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets.

High-touch, expert-driven credit analysis and due diligence

The relationship starts with rigorous underwriting, which is reflected in the quality of the business secured. Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued 132 policies on bonds with AA underlying ratings across the primary and secondary municipal markets in the first 9 months of 2025, totaling $5.8 billion of par.

The focus on high-quality credit is evident in the market share captured in the U.S. municipal bond sector:

• Insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first 9 months of 2025.
• Primary par written represented 61% of the total municipal market insured par sold in Q3 2025.
• Penetration of all municipal issuance reached 4.9% in Q3 2025.

Dedicated Public Finance Marketing for broker-dealer support

Marketing efforts translate directly into transaction volume, showing strong engagement with the distribution network. The Present Value of New Business Production (PVP) for the U.S. public finance business was $152 million for the first 9 months of 2025. The overall production metrics for Q3 2025 highlight the dual focus on new issuance and secondary market penetration:

Metric	Q3 2025 Amount	Q3 2024 Amount
U.S. Public Finance Par Closed	$7.9 billion	$5.4 billion
U.S. Secondary Market PVP	$32 million (9 months YTD)	$5 million (9 months YTD)
U.S. Secondary Market GWP/PVP	$10 million	$2 million

The secondary market business showed significant growth, with the par written in the secondary market in the first 9 months of 2025 representing 7% of U.S. public finance par written, up from 2.4% in the first 9 months of 2024. Furthermore, the par amount of municipal secondary market policies written in the first three quarters of 2025 was four times the amount written in the first three quarters of the prior year.

Long-term portfolio surveillance and remediation services

The relationship extends well past the closing date through active surveillance and, when necessary, remediation of credits. The company actively extracts value from underlying collateral on its workout credits. For the third quarter of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a net economic benefit of $38 million from loss development, which was primarily related to legacy RMBS exposure and non-U.S. public finance exposure.

The long-term commitment is also supported by the substantial premium base held in reserve:

• Deferred premium revenue stood at $3.9 billion as of September 30, 2025.

The company's total PVP for Q3 2025 was $91 million, which was 44% more than in the third quarter of last year.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Channels

You're looking at how Assured Guaranty Ltd. gets its financial guaranty products-the insurance policies-into the hands of the ultimate users, which are the bond issuers and investors. This isn't a simple off-the-shelf product sold in a store; it's deeply embedded in the capital markets infrastructure. The channels are about where the deal originates and how the policy is placed.

Direct sales to municipal and infrastructure bond issuers

This channel involves Assured Guaranty Ltd. working directly with the entities issuing the bonds-municipalities, infrastructure project developers, or structured finance originators-to secure the credit enhancement before the bond hits the market. This is the front end of the primary market business.

The focus here is on securing large, high-quality transactions. For the first nine months of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. insured 703 primary-market transactions, which was 25% more than the same period in the prior year. This activity is tied directly to the issuer's need for credit enhancement on new debt.

The company's strategy includes targeting larger negotiated deals in the U.S. public finance market. In the third quarter of 2025, the company's primary par written represented 61% of the total municipal market insured par sold, showing the dominance of the new issue, issuer-facing channel in that quarter.

Investment banks and underwriters facilitating new bond issues

This is arguably the most critical intermediary channel for new issue business. Investment banks and underwriters structure the bond offering and typically bring Assured Guaranty Ltd. in as part of the financing package to secure the best possible rating and pricing for the issuer. They are the gatekeepers to the primary market flow.

The success in this channel is reflected in the total new issue volume. Assured Guaranty Ltd. insured $21.5 billion of new issue par in the first nine months of 2025. That figure was a 29% increase from the first nine months of 2024, marking the highest amount of new issue par insured in the first nine months of a decade.

The firm's overall production for its three financial guaranty businesses-U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, and global structured finance-came in strong during the third quarter of 2025, producing $75 million of Gross Written Premiums (GWP).

Institutional and retail broker-dealers for secondary market sales

This channel addresses the existing bond market, where investors seek to trade or purchase bonds already trading. Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides secondary market bond insurance policies to investors who want the credit protection on bonds they already own or are buying in the secondary market. Broker-dealers facilitate these transactions.

Activity in this area picked up significantly in 2025. For the first nine months of 2025, secondary market activity produced $1.5 billion of par, which was more than three times higher year-over-year. This suggests broker-dealers and institutional desks are increasingly using Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s policies to manage risk for their clients in the trading environment.

The total par insured across both primary and secondary markets for the first nine months of 2025 reached $23 billion, a 34% increase over the same period in 2024.

Here's a look at the key production volumes for the first nine months of 2025, which illustrate the scale flowing through these channels:

Metric	Value (First Nine Months 2025)	Comparison to Prior Year
Total Par Insured	$23 billion	34% higher than YTD 2024
New Issue Par Insured	$21.5 billion	29% increase from YTD 2024
Primary Market Transactions	703	25% increase from YTD 2024
Secondary Market Par Insured	$1.5 billion	More than three times higher than YTD 2024

The company maintains its U.S. operations with a large municipal bond insurance department in its New York headquarters and a fully staffed western regional office in San Francisco, supporting these distribution efforts across the country.

• U.S. insurance subsidiary, Assured Guaranty Inc. (AG), writes direct financial guaranties.
• The firm's strategy includes expanding into higher education, healthcare, and housing finance agencies.
• The company's insured bonds tend to have high market liquidity, with approximately $2 billion of bonds trading each week, on average.
• In the third quarter of 2025, the company wrote 23 primary and secondary policies totaling $801 million of double-A par.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Segments

You're looking at the core client base for Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) as of late 2025, focusing on who buys their credit protection products. Honestly, the business is overwhelmingly driven by the Insurance segment, which is where the action is.

U.S. Public Finance Issuers (municipalities, utilities, transportation) represent the largest customer group by a significant margin. These are the entities-cities, utility districts, transportation authorities-that need to issue bonds to fund projects, and they use Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s insurance to make their debt more attractive to investors. The market penetration here is deep; for the first nine months of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold, up from 57% in the same period in 2024. You can see the scale of this activity: par sold in the U.S. public finance market for the first nine months of 2025 reached a record level, with Assured Guaranty Ltd. guaranteeing $21 billion of total par. For the third quarter of 2025 alone, U.S. public finance transactions totaled $7.9 billion of par closed, up from $5.4 billion in the third quarter of 2024.

The other two financial guaranty businesses-Non-U.S. Public Finance and Global Structured Finance-round out the insurance production. Together, these three businesses generated $75 million in Gross Written Premiums (GWP) and $91 million in Present Value of New Business Production (PVP) for the third quarter of 2025. Here's a quick look at how the production metrics for Q3 2025 stack up against the prior year's third quarter:

Metric (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)	Total Financial Guaranty Production	U.S. Public Finance Impact
Gross Written Premiums (GWP)	Increased by 23%	Contributed to resurgence of triple-B municipal issuance.
Present Value of New Business Production (PVP)	Increased by 44%	Driven by larger transportation, health care, and tax-backed transactions.

Non-U.S. Public Finance Issuers (infrastructure, regulated utilities in U.K./EU) form the second part of the insurance client base. Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit protection products to international public finance markets, including infrastructure. While specific GWP/PVP breakdowns for this segment aren't public, it is explicitly named as one of the three core financial guaranty businesses. For instance, the company has guaranteed project financing loans in Europe, such as a €96 million loan for Spain's A-127 Aragon Regional Road.

Structured Finance Issuers (ABS, subscription finance, pooled corporate obligations) are the third key insurance customer group. Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides guarantees for structured financings globally. Management has signaled a strategic intent to expand these businesses into new sectors, with specific mention of looking at asset classes like data centers.

Institutional Investors (pension funds, insurance companies) seeking long-tenor assets are the ultimate buyers of the insured bonds, making them critical to the entire ecosystem. They are the demand side that pulls the supply of insured bonds from the issuers. Management noted benefiting from strong investor demand for their municipal bond insurance, specifically mentioning institutional investors participating in very large infrastructure transactions during the third quarter of 2025. These investors are looking for the security Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides on the principal and interest payments. For context on the overall financial health supporting these relationships, the company's Adjusted Book Value per share reached a record high of $181.37 as of September 30, 2025.

You should track the penetration rates closely; the company's penetration of all municipal issuance was 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Cost Structure

The Cost Structure for Assured Guaranty Ltd. centers on managing claims, servicing holding company debt, and funding the operational and regulatory requirements to maintain top-tier financial strength ratings. These costs are incurred across the Insurance and Corporate divisions.

Loss and loss adjustment expenses are a primary variable cost, though recent performance showed a favorable trend. For the third quarter of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a net economic benefit of $38 million primarily related to legacy RMBS exposure and non-U.S. public finance exposure. This contrasts with the GAAP reported line item for the Insurance segment in Q3 2025, which showed a Loss expense (benefit) of ($31 million).

The holding company structure introduces fixed financing costs. Specifically, the interest expense on holding company debt, which is a major component of the Corporate division's costs, amounted to $24 million in the first quarter of 2025. This division reported an Adjusted operating loss of $20 million in Q1 2025, before considering tax benefits.

Underwriting, surveillance, and general operating expenses are detailed within the Insurance segment's operating costs for the third quarter of 2025 (amounts in millions):

Expense Category	Q3 2025 Amount (in millions)
Employee compensation and benefit expenses	$44
Other operating expenses	$32
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs (DAC)	$6

The total segment expenses for Q3 2025, excluding the loss benefit, were composed of these items plus DAC amortization. The sum of Employee compensation and benefit expenses and Other operating expenses was $76 million for the quarter.

Maintaining high financial strength ratings is a critical, non-negotiable cost driver. Assured Guaranty Ltd. incurs costs associated with maintaining capital levels well above regulatory or rating agency thresholds. As of June 30, 2025, S&P Global Ratings affirmed the AA financial strength ratings of the insurance subsidiaries and the A issuer credit rating of Assured Guaranty Ltd. Furthermore, S&P highlighted a 'robust capital position with a capital adequacy redundancy above S&P's 'AAA' stress level.' Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) also affirmed AA+ insurance financial strength ratings in August 2025. The management is committed to maintaining this excellent capital adequacy, which requires setting aside capital that could otherwise be deployed for growth or returned to shareholders.

Key elements contributing to the cost structure include:

• Net economic benefit from loss development in Q3 2025: $38 million.
• Interest expense for holding company debt in Q1 2025: $24 million.
• Corporate division operating loss in Q1 2025: $20 million.
• Insurance segment Employee compensation and benefit expenses in Q3 2025: $44 million.
• Capital adequacy maintained above S&P's 'AAA' stress level.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Revenue Streams

You're looking at the core income drivers for Assured Guaranty Ltd. as of the third quarter of 2025. The revenue streams are heavily weighted toward premium generation from new business and the performance of their substantial investment portfolios. Honestly, the mix shows a company balancing its core insurance underwriting with its asset management capabilities.

Here's a quick look at the key components that made up the revenue picture for the three months ended September 30, 2025. We'll use the reported figures from the Q3 2025 earnings release to map this out.

Revenue Stream Component	Q3 2025 Amount (in millions)	Notes
Gross Written Premiums (GWP)	$75 million	Total GWP from U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, and global structured finance.
Scheduled Earned Premiums	Data Not Explicitly Stated	Contribution to adjusted operating income was higher than Q3 2024.
Investment Income (Net)	Calculated from Components	Components detailed below, including fixed maturity and alternative investments.
Equity in Earnings from Investees (e.g., Sound Point)	$3 million	Reported as Asset management adjusted operating income.

The investment income line is actually a blend of a few things, so let's break down what we know about the components that feed into the overall adjusted operating income. Remember, this is different from the GAAP net income figure of $105 million for the quarter.

When we look closer at the investment portfolio's contribution to adjusted operating income, you see a few moving parts:

• Net investment income on the externally managed fixed maturity portfolio increased by $4 million compared to Q3 2024.
• Net investment income included $9 million related to the CLO equity tranches in Q3 2025.
• There was a reduction in earnings of $7 million from the short-term investment portfolio due to declining interest rates and average balances.

The $3 million figure for Equity in earnings from investees is specifically tied to the Asset management segment, which includes the ownership interest in Sound Point. To be fair, the scheduled earned premiums component is a steady, recurring part of the insurance business, and its contribution to adjusted operating income was noted as being higher year-over-year, even if the exact dollar amount for Q3 2025 wasn't isolated in the same way as GWP or the investment line items.

Finance: draft the reconciliation between Net Investment Income components and the total reported Investment Income for the Insurance Segment by next Tuesday.