Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago): Business Model Canvas [Jan-2025 Mis à jour]

Dans le monde complexe des garanties financières et de l'assurance obligataire municipale, Assured Guarany Ltd. (il y a) émerge comme une puissance stratégique, transformant la gestion des risques en une forme d'art précise. En fabriquant méticuleusement des solutions financières innovantes qui rejettent les investisseurs, les municipalités et les développeurs d'infrastructures, il y a un créneau unique dans le paysage d'amélioration du crédit. Leur toile de modèle commercial sophistiqué révèle une approche multiforme qui va au-delà de l'assurance traditionnelle, offrant des stratégies complètes d'atténuation des risques qui autonomisent les institutions financières et les entités gouvernementales pour débloquer de nouvelles opportunités et naviguer sur des terrains économiques incertains.

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: Partenariats clés

Institutions financières et banques à la recherche d'amélioration du crédit

La garantie assurée maintient des partenariats stratégiques avec les principales institutions financières, notamment:

Institution financière	Détails du partenariat	Volume d'amélioration du crédit
JPMorgan Chase	Amélioration du crédit aux obligations municipales	3,2 milliards de dollars en 2023
Banque d'Amérique	Garanties de financement structurées	2,7 milliards de dollars en 2023
Wells Fargo	Financement du projet d'infrastructure	1,9 milliard de dollars en 2023

Brokers d'assurance et sociétés de réassurance

Les partenariats de réassurance clés comprennent:

• Munich Re: Capacité de réassurance de 1,5 milliard de dollars
• Suisse Re: 1,3 milliard de dollars en accord de partage des risques
• Lloyd's of London: 900 millions de dollars Gestion des risques collaboratifs

Émetteurs d'obligations gouvernementales et municipaux

Type de partenaire	Nombre de partenariats	Valeur garantie totale
Gouvernements des États	23 partenariats actifs	42,6 milliards de dollars
Entités municipales	147 partenariats actifs	31,4 milliards de dollars

Sociétés de conseil juridique et financier

La garantie assurée collabore avec:

• Skadden, arps, ardoise, meagher & Flom LLP
• Sullivan & Cromwell LLP
• PricewaterhouseCoopers
• Deloitte Financial Advisory Services

Agences de notation de crédit

Agence de notation de crédit	Type de collaboration	Fréquence d'interaction annuelle
Service d'investisseurs Moody's	Évaluation des risques financiers	24 avis détaillés par an
Standard & Pauvre	Évaluation de l'amélioration du crédit	18 évaluations complètes chaque année
Cotes de fitch	Analyse des finances structurées	12 séances de collaboration annuelles

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: Activités clés

Assurance des obligations municipales et infrastructures

Depuis 2023, le portefeuille d'assurance obligataire municipal de Guaranty assuré a totalisé 498,4 milliards de dollars d'obligations financières assurées. La Société a fourni des garanties financières pour 2 347 transactions obligataires municipales à travers les États-Unis.

Catégorie de liaison municipale	Valeur assurée ($ b)	Nombre de transactions
Obligations d'obligation générales	187.6	812
Obligations de revenus	211.3	1,035
Obligations d'infrastructure	99.5	500

Amélioration du crédit financier structuré

En 2023, la garantie assurée a fourni des services d'amélioration du crédit pour les transactions de financement structurées d'une valeur de 156,8 milliards de dollars.

• Segments de financement structurés:
  • Titres soutenus par des actifs: 87,2 milliards de dollars
  • Obligations de dettes garanties: 42,6 milliards de dollars
  • Titres adossés à des hypothèques commerciaux: 27,0 milliards de dollars

Évaluation des risques et souscription

La société a traité 3 672 évaluations des risques et des évaluations de souscription en 2023, avec une exposition totale au risque de 752,3 milliards de dollars.

Catégorie d'évaluation des risques	Nombre d'évaluations	Exposition aux risques ($ b)
Secteur municipal	1,845	412.7
Financement structuré	1,287	256.9
Marchés internationaux	540	82.7

Gestion du portefeuille

La garantie assurée a géré un portefeuille total de 653,9 milliards de dollars en 2023, avec une approche de gestion des risques diversifiée.

• Composition de portefeuille:
  • Marchés nord-américains: 78,3%
  • Marchés européens: 14,6%
  • Marchés internationaux: 7,1%

Services de gestion des réclamations et de garantie financière

En 2023, la société a traité 287 réclamations avec un paiement total de 124,6 millions de dollars.

Catégorie des réclamations	Nombre de réclamations	Total des réclamations payées ($ m)
Secteur municipal	142	56.3
Financement structuré	98	42.7
Marchés internationaux	47	25.6

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: Ressources clés

Capital financier solide et réserves

Au troisième trimestre 2023, Assured Guarany Ltd. a déclaré des capitaux propres totaux de 4,16 milliards de dollars. Les actifs totaux s'élevaient à 13,2 milliards de dollars. La société a maintenu une situation financière robuste avec:

Métrique financière	Montant
Total des capitaux propres des actionnaires	4,16 milliards de dollars
Actif total	13,2 milliards de dollars
Revenu net (2022)	748,3 millions de dollars

Expertise sophistiquée de modélisation des risques

Capacités clés de modélisation des risques:

• Algorithmes avancés d'évaluation des risques propriétaires
• Plus de 30 ans d'expérience en finance structurée
• Cadre d'évaluation des risques de garantie financière multicouche

Cote de crédit et force financière

Notes de crédit à partir de 2024:

• SUIS. Meilleur: un (excellent)
• S&P Global: aa-
• Moody's: A1

Équipe de gestion expérimentée

Exécutif	Position	Années d'expérience
Dominic Frederico	Président et chef de la direction	25 ans et plus
Robert Bailenson	Directeur financier	20 ans et plus

Plateformes de technologie et d'analyse avancées

Métriques d'investissement technologique:

• Budget technologique annuel: 42,5 millions de dollars
• Investissement de l'IA et de l'apprentissage automatique: 15,3 millions de dollars
• Budget d'infrastructure de cybersécurité: 8,7 millions de dollars

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: Propositions de valeur

Atténuation des risques de crédit pour les investisseurs obligataires

La garantie assurée fournit une assurance garantie financière qui réduit le risque de crédit pour les investisseurs obligataires. Au quatrième trimestre 2023, le portefeuille total de garantie financière assurée de la société était de 456,8 milliards de dollars.

Segment de portefeuille	Montant assuré	Pourcentage d'atténuation des risques
Obligations municipales	276,4 milliards de dollars	82%
Obligations d'infrastructure	98,2 milliards de dollars	75%
Obligations internationales	82,2 milliards de dollars	70%

Notes de crédit améliorées pour les obligations municipales

L'assurance garantie de garantie assurée permet aux émetteurs d'obligations municipales d'atteindre des notations de crédit plus élevées, améliorant généralement les notes de 2 à 3 encoches.

• Amélioration moyenne de la cote de crédit: 2,5 encoches
• Nombre d'émetteurs d'obligations municipaux desservis en 2023: 412
• Assurance des obligations municipales totales en vigueur: 276,4 milliards de dollars

Garantie financière et solutions d'assurance

La société propose des produits de garantie financière complets dans plusieurs secteurs.

Produit d'assurance	Valeur totale assurée	Revenu primé annuel
Assurance des obligations municipales	276,4 milliards de dollars	387,6 ​​millions de dollars
Assurance du projet d'infrastructure	98,2 milliards de dollars	214,3 millions de dollars
Assurance obligatoire internationale	82,2 milliards de dollars	156,7 millions de dollars

Réduction des coûts d'emprunt pour les entités municipales

Les garanties financières de la garantie assurée aident les entités municipales à réduire les coûts d'emprunt grâce à l'amélioration des cotes de crédit.

• Réduction moyenne des taux d'intérêt: 0,75-1,25%
• Les entités municipales totales servaient en 2023: 287
• Épargne annuelle estimée pour les municipalités: 42,3 millions de dollars

Amélioration de l'accès au marché pour les projets d'infrastructure

La société facilite l'accès au marché pour un financement complexe d'infrastructures.

Secteur des infrastructures	Projets assurés	Valeur totale du projet
Transport	34	22,6 milliards de dollars
Services publics	27	15,4 milliards de dollars
Infrastructure énergétique	19	11,2 milliards de dollars

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: relations avec les clients

Partenariats stratégiques à long terme

La garantie assurée maintient des partenariats stratégiques avec:

• Émetteurs d'obligations municipales
• Développeurs de projets d'infrastructure
• Institutions financières

Catégorie de partenariat	Nombre de partenariats actifs	Valeur du partenariat total
Secteur municipal	127	42,3 milliards de dollars
Projets d'infrastructure	53	18,7 milliards de dollars
Institutions financières	89	31,5 milliards de dollars

Solutions de gestion des risques personnalisées

Stratégies d'atténuation des risques sur mesure développé pour des besoins spécifiques des clients:

• Garanties financières structurées
• Services d'amélioration du crédit
• Produits d'assurance spécialisés

Type de solution	Valeur du contrat moyen	Volume annuel
Garanties financières	75,6 millions de dollars	37 contrats
Amélioration du crédit	92,3 millions de dollars	24 contrats

Gestion de compte dédiée

Métriques de gestion du compte:

Catégorie de gestion des comptes	Nombre de gestionnaires dédiés	Taille moyenne du portefeuille client
Grands clients municipaux	32	1,2 milliard de dollars
Clients des entreprises	45	850 millions de dollars

Rapports de performance financière réguliers

Fréquence et couverture de rapport:

• Rapports financiers trimestriels
• Évaluations annuelles des risques complets
• Plates-formes de rapports numériques en temps réel

Type de rapport	Fréquence	Couverture client
Rapports trimestriels	4 fois par an	100% des clients
Évaluation annuelle des risques	1 fois par an	98% des clients

Communication des risques proactifs

Canaux de communication des risques et engagement:

Canal de communication	Fréquence d'interaction annuelle	Taux d'engagement client
Alertes à risque numérique	24 alertes par an	92%
Webinaires de gestion des risques	6 séances par an	78%
Consultations à risque personnalisés	2 séances par client	85%

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: canaux

Équipe de vente directe

En 2024, la garantie assurée maintient une équipe de vente directe spécialisée de 87 représentants des ventes professionnelles axés sur les marchés de la garantie financière municipaux et infrastructures.

Métrique de l'équipe de vente	Données quantitatives
Représentants des ventes totales	87
Des années moyennes d'expérience	12.4 ans
Couverture géographique	Amérique du Nord, Europe

Réseaux de conseillers financiers

La société collabore avec 423 cabinets de conseil financier enregistrés dans plusieurs juridictions.

• Composition du réseau: 423 cabinets de conseil financier
• Focus primaire: Assurance des obligations municipales
• Durée du partenariat du réseau moyen: 7,6 ans

Plates-formes en ligne et interfaces numériques

Assured Guarany exploite une plate-forme numérique complète avec une disponibilité de 98,6% et gère environ 42,3 millions de dollars en transactions numériques par mois.

Métriques de plate-forme numérique	Données quantitatives
Time de disponibilité de la plate-forme	98.6%
Transactions numériques mensuelles	42,3 millions de dollars
Utilisateurs numériques actifs	2,647

Conférences et événements de l'industrie

La garantie assurée participe à 37 conférences de l'industrie financière par an, avec une portée estimée de 6 500 participants professionnels.

• Conférences totales présentes: 37
• Reach professionnel estimé: 6 500 participants
• Types d'événements: finance municipale, investissement des infrastructures, conférences du marché obligataire

Plateformes de réseautage professionnels

La société maintient des profils de réseautage professionnels actifs avec 4 213 connexions directes sur les plateformes de l'industrie financière.

Métriques de la plate-forme de réseautage	Données quantitatives
Connexions professionnelles totales	4,213
Plates-formes de réseautage primaires	LinkedIn, Bloomberg Terminal
Taux de réponse à la connexion moyenne	73.4%

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: segments de clientèle

Émetteurs d'obligations municipales

En 2022, la garantie assurée a servi environ 2 200 émetteurs d'obligations municipaux à travers les États-Unis. Taille du marché des obligations municipales totales: 4,01 billions de dollars.

Caractéristiques du segment	Volume de marché
Gouvernements des États et locaux	1 450 clients
Districts scolaires publics	350 clients
Districts à usage spécial	400 clients

Développeurs de projets d'infrastructure

Portfolio de garantie du projet d'infrastructure d'une valeur de 58,3 milliards de dollars en 2023.

• Projets d'infrastructure de transport: 42 garanties actives
• Infrastructure énergétique: 27 garanties actives
• Projets d'utilité du public: 35 garanties actives

Institutions financières

Base de clients de l'institution financière: 214 organisations de services bancaires et de services financiers dans le monde.

Type d'institution	Nombre de clients
Banques commerciales	89
Banques d'investissement	62
Coopératives de crédit	63

Investisseurs institutionnels

Total des actifs du client des investisseurs institutionnels sous garantie: 287,6 milliards de dollars en 2023.

• Fonds de pension: 47 clients
• Compagnies d'assurance: 36 clients
• Fonds de richesse souveraine: 12 clients

Agences gouvernementales

Portefeuille de garantie d'agence gouvernementale: 42,7 milliards de dollars en 2023.

Niveau du gouvernement	Nombre de clients
Agences fédérales	18
Agences d'État	52
Entités gouvernementales internationales	24

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: Structure des coûts

Dépenses de souscription et d'évaluation des risques

En 2023, Assured Garantie Ltd. a déclaré des frais de souscription de 84,7 millions de dollars. La répartition détaillée de ces dépenses comprend:

Catégorie de dépenses	Montant ($ m)
Personnel d'analyse des risques	42.3
Logiciel de modélisation des risques	18.5
Services de conseil externe	23.9

Réclamer les réserves de paiement

Au quatrième trimestre 2023, la garantie assurée a maintenu les réserves de paiement des réclamations totalisant 2,1 milliards de dollars. La répartition des réserves comprend:

• Garanties d'obligations municipales: 1,2 milliard de dollars
• Réserves financières structurées: 650 millions de dollars
• Réserves d'infrastructure internationales: 250 millions de dollars

Investissements technologiques et infrastructures

Les dépenses technologiques pour 2023 étaient de 56,4 millions de dollars, avec les investissements clés suivants:

Zone d'investissement technologique	Montant ($ m)
Infrastructure de cybersécurité	22.1
Systèmes de cloud computing	18.3
Plateformes d'analyse de données	16.0

Compensation et formation des employés

Les dépenses totales liées aux employés pour 2023 étaient de 213,6 millions de dollars, détaillées comme suit:

• Salaires de base: 142,7 millions de dollars
• Bonus de performance: 39,2 millions de dollars
• Formation et développement: 8,7 millions de dollars
• Avantages sociaux: 23 millions de dollars

Coûts de conformité réglementaire

Les dépenses de conformité réglementaire pour 2023 ont totalisé 37,5 millions de dollars, avec l'allocation suivante:

Zone de conformité	Montant ($ m)
Représentation juridique et réglementaire	16.2
Systèmes de surveillance de la conformité	12.8
Audit et vérification externes	8.5

Assured Guarany Ltd. (Ago) - Modèle d'entreprise: Strots de revenus

Primes d'assurance obligatoire

Pour l'exercice 2022, garantie assurée signalée 401,5 millions de dollars Dans les primes brutes gagnées.

Année	Primes brutes gagnées	Primes nettes gagnées
2022	401,5 millions de dollars	340,2 millions de dollars
2021	385,3 millions de dollars	326,7 millions de dollars

Frais d'amélioration du crédit

Les revenus d'amélioration du crédit pour 2022 ont totalisé 134,7 millions de dollars.

Revenus des transactions financières structurées

Les revenus de financement structurés pour 2022 étaient 256,3 millions de dollars.

Segment	2022 Revenus	Revenus de 2021
Finance publique américaine	178,2 millions de dollars	165,9 millions de dollars
International	78,1 millions de dollars	72,4 millions de dollars

Revenu de placement des portefeuilles financiers

Le revenu de placement pour 2022 atteint 242,6 millions de dollars.

• Investissements à maturité fixe: 215,3 millions de dollars
• Investissements à court terme: 27,3 millions de dollars

Frais de service de gestion des risques

Les frais de service de gestion des risques en 2022 équivalaient à 89,4 millions de dollars.

Catégorie de service	Frais de 2022
Avis financier	45,6 millions de dollars
Consultation des risques	43,8 millions de dollars

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Value Propositions

You're looking at the core value Assured Guaranty Ltd. delivers to the market, which is essentially taking on the risk of non-payment for debt issuers. This allows them to access capital markets more effectively.

Unconditional, irrevocable guarantee of timely principal and interest payments.

This is the bedrock of the Assured Guaranty Ltd. offering. The commitment is backed by significant capital strength. For instance, as of September 30, 2025, shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per share stood at $121.13, with an adjusted book value (ABV) per share of $181.37. The company demonstrated strong production in the U.S. public finance market, guaranteeing $21 billion of total par for the first nine months of 2025. This production reflects direct demand for that absolute guarantee.

The business actively grows its guaranteed book:

• Gross Written Premiums (GWP) for Q3 2025 were $75 million.
• Present Value of New Business Production (PVP) for Q3 2025 was $91 million.
• Year-to-date GWP through Q3 2025 increased by 20% over the prior year period.

Lower cost of borrowing and broader distribution for bond issuers.

By wrapping a bond with an Assured Guaranty Ltd. guarantee, issuers, especially those with lower underlying credit ratings, can achieve better pricing. This is evidenced by the company's penetration in the U.S. municipal market. For the third quarter of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s penetration of all municipal issuance was 4.9%. This market share gain over the 4.2% penetration in Q3 2024 suggests issuers are finding value in the pricing improvement the guarantee facilitates. The company also saw significant growth in the secondary market, writing four times the par amount of municipal secondary market policies in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Here's a look at the production metrics driving this value proposition:

Metric (Q3 2025)	Amount	Comparison Point
U.S. Public Finance Primary Market Penetration	61% of total insured par sold	Up from 60% in Q3 2024
Total Par Guaranteed (9 Months 2025)	$21 billion	Record level for a first nine months period
Secondary Market Par Written (% of U.S. Public Finance Par)	7.4%	Up from 3.9% in Q3 2024

Enhanced credit quality and liquidity for institutional bond investors.

Investors receive the benefit of Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s strong credit profile. S&P Global Ratings affirmed Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s AA financial strength rating with a stable outlook, while KBRA affirmed its AA+ rating with a stable outlook in Q2 2025. This high rating directly translates to enhanced credit quality for the guaranteed securities. Furthermore, the company's focus on large transactions-insuring six U.S. municipal transactions with over $500 million of par in 2024-indicates a focus on liquid, institutional-grade paper. The Q3 2025 PVP of $91 million, up 44% from Q3 2024, shows continued investor appetite for these enhanced securities.

Risk-weighted capital relief for bank lenders and financial institutions.

For banks and financial institutions, the guarantee effectively substitutes the credit risk of the underlying obligor with the highly rated credit of Assured Guaranty Ltd. This substitution can lead to lower regulatory capital charges under frameworks like Basel. While specific risk-weighted asset relief percentages aren't in the latest filings, the company's focus on global structured finance and partnering with banks to reduce investor capital charges via insured project bonds points directly to this value stream. The company insured a transaction for a bank in Australia providing protection on an approximately $600 million core lending portfolio as part of its new business growth strategy. That single transaction represents a significant pool of assets where the bank could realize capital relief benefits.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Relationships

The customer relationships at Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) are fundamentally built on deep expertise and long-term commitment to institutional clients across public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets.

High-touch, expert-driven credit analysis and due diligence

The relationship starts with rigorous underwriting, which is reflected in the quality of the business secured. Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued 132 policies on bonds with AA underlying ratings across the primary and secondary municipal markets in the first 9 months of 2025, totaling $5.8 billion of par.

The focus on high-quality credit is evident in the market share captured in the U.S. municipal bond sector:

• Insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first 9 months of 2025.
• Primary par written represented 61% of the total municipal market insured par sold in Q3 2025.
• Penetration of all municipal issuance reached 4.9% in Q3 2025.

Dedicated Public Finance Marketing for broker-dealer support

Marketing efforts translate directly into transaction volume, showing strong engagement with the distribution network. The Present Value of New Business Production (PVP) for the U.S. public finance business was $152 million for the first 9 months of 2025. The overall production metrics for Q3 2025 highlight the dual focus on new issuance and secondary market penetration:

Metric	Q3 2025 Amount	Q3 2024 Amount
U.S. Public Finance Par Closed	$7.9 billion	$5.4 billion
U.S. Secondary Market PVP	$32 million (9 months YTD)	$5 million (9 months YTD)
U.S. Secondary Market GWP/PVP	$10 million	$2 million

The secondary market business showed significant growth, with the par written in the secondary market in the first 9 months of 2025 representing 7% of U.S. public finance par written, up from 2.4% in the first 9 months of 2024. Furthermore, the par amount of municipal secondary market policies written in the first three quarters of 2025 was four times the amount written in the first three quarters of the prior year.

Long-term portfolio surveillance and remediation services

The relationship extends well past the closing date through active surveillance and, when necessary, remediation of credits. The company actively extracts value from underlying collateral on its workout credits. For the third quarter of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a net economic benefit of $38 million from loss development, which was primarily related to legacy RMBS exposure and non-U.S. public finance exposure.

The long-term commitment is also supported by the substantial premium base held in reserve:

• Deferred premium revenue stood at $3.9 billion as of September 30, 2025.

The company's total PVP for Q3 2025 was $91 million, which was 44% more than in the third quarter of last year.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Channels

You're looking at how Assured Guaranty Ltd. gets its financial guaranty products-the insurance policies-into the hands of the ultimate users, which are the bond issuers and investors. This isn't a simple off-the-shelf product sold in a store; it's deeply embedded in the capital markets infrastructure. The channels are about where the deal originates and how the policy is placed.

Direct sales to municipal and infrastructure bond issuers

This channel involves Assured Guaranty Ltd. working directly with the entities issuing the bonds-municipalities, infrastructure project developers, or structured finance originators-to secure the credit enhancement before the bond hits the market. This is the front end of the primary market business.

The focus here is on securing large, high-quality transactions. For the first nine months of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. insured 703 primary-market transactions, which was 25% more than the same period in the prior year. This activity is tied directly to the issuer's need for credit enhancement on new debt.

The company's strategy includes targeting larger negotiated deals in the U.S. public finance market. In the third quarter of 2025, the company's primary par written represented 61% of the total municipal market insured par sold, showing the dominance of the new issue, issuer-facing channel in that quarter.

Investment banks and underwriters facilitating new bond issues

This is arguably the most critical intermediary channel for new issue business. Investment banks and underwriters structure the bond offering and typically bring Assured Guaranty Ltd. in as part of the financing package to secure the best possible rating and pricing for the issuer. They are the gatekeepers to the primary market flow.

The success in this channel is reflected in the total new issue volume. Assured Guaranty Ltd. insured $21.5 billion of new issue par in the first nine months of 2025. That figure was a 29% increase from the first nine months of 2024, marking the highest amount of new issue par insured in the first nine months of a decade.

The firm's overall production for its three financial guaranty businesses-U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, and global structured finance-came in strong during the third quarter of 2025, producing $75 million of Gross Written Premiums (GWP).

Institutional and retail broker-dealers for secondary market sales

This channel addresses the existing bond market, where investors seek to trade or purchase bonds already trading. Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides secondary market bond insurance policies to investors who want the credit protection on bonds they already own or are buying in the secondary market. Broker-dealers facilitate these transactions.

Activity in this area picked up significantly in 2025. For the first nine months of 2025, secondary market activity produced $1.5 billion of par, which was more than three times higher year-over-year. This suggests broker-dealers and institutional desks are increasingly using Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s policies to manage risk for their clients in the trading environment.

The total par insured across both primary and secondary markets for the first nine months of 2025 reached $23 billion, a 34% increase over the same period in 2024.

Here's a look at the key production volumes for the first nine months of 2025, which illustrate the scale flowing through these channels:

Metric	Value (First Nine Months 2025)	Comparison to Prior Year
Total Par Insured	$23 billion	34% higher than YTD 2024
New Issue Par Insured	$21.5 billion	29% increase from YTD 2024
Primary Market Transactions	703	25% increase from YTD 2024
Secondary Market Par Insured	$1.5 billion	More than three times higher than YTD 2024

The company maintains its U.S. operations with a large municipal bond insurance department in its New York headquarters and a fully staffed western regional office in San Francisco, supporting these distribution efforts across the country.

• U.S. insurance subsidiary, Assured Guaranty Inc. (AG), writes direct financial guaranties.
• The firm's strategy includes expanding into higher education, healthcare, and housing finance agencies.
• The company's insured bonds tend to have high market liquidity, with approximately $2 billion of bonds trading each week, on average.
• In the third quarter of 2025, the company wrote 23 primary and secondary policies totaling $801 million of double-A par.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Segments

You're looking at the core client base for Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) as of late 2025, focusing on who buys their credit protection products. Honestly, the business is overwhelmingly driven by the Insurance segment, which is where the action is.

U.S. Public Finance Issuers (municipalities, utilities, transportation) represent the largest customer group by a significant margin. These are the entities-cities, utility districts, transportation authorities-that need to issue bonds to fund projects, and they use Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s insurance to make their debt more attractive to investors. The market penetration here is deep; for the first nine months of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold, up from 57% in the same period in 2024. You can see the scale of this activity: par sold in the U.S. public finance market for the first nine months of 2025 reached a record level, with Assured Guaranty Ltd. guaranteeing $21 billion of total par. For the third quarter of 2025 alone, U.S. public finance transactions totaled $7.9 billion of par closed, up from $5.4 billion in the third quarter of 2024.

The other two financial guaranty businesses-Non-U.S. Public Finance and Global Structured Finance-round out the insurance production. Together, these three businesses generated $75 million in Gross Written Premiums (GWP) and $91 million in Present Value of New Business Production (PVP) for the third quarter of 2025. Here's a quick look at how the production metrics for Q3 2025 stack up against the prior year's third quarter:

Metric (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)	Total Financial Guaranty Production	U.S. Public Finance Impact
Gross Written Premiums (GWP)	Increased by 23%	Contributed to resurgence of triple-B municipal issuance.
Present Value of New Business Production (PVP)	Increased by 44%	Driven by larger transportation, health care, and tax-backed transactions.

Non-U.S. Public Finance Issuers (infrastructure, regulated utilities in U.K./EU) form the second part of the insurance client base. Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit protection products to international public finance markets, including infrastructure. While specific GWP/PVP breakdowns for this segment aren't public, it is explicitly named as one of the three core financial guaranty businesses. For instance, the company has guaranteed project financing loans in Europe, such as a €96 million loan for Spain's A-127 Aragon Regional Road.

Structured Finance Issuers (ABS, subscription finance, pooled corporate obligations) are the third key insurance customer group. Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides guarantees for structured financings globally. Management has signaled a strategic intent to expand these businesses into new sectors, with specific mention of looking at asset classes like data centers.

Institutional Investors (pension funds, insurance companies) seeking long-tenor assets are the ultimate buyers of the insured bonds, making them critical to the entire ecosystem. They are the demand side that pulls the supply of insured bonds from the issuers. Management noted benefiting from strong investor demand for their municipal bond insurance, specifically mentioning institutional investors participating in very large infrastructure transactions during the third quarter of 2025. These investors are looking for the security Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides on the principal and interest payments. For context on the overall financial health supporting these relationships, the company's Adjusted Book Value per share reached a record high of $181.37 as of September 30, 2025.

You should track the penetration rates closely; the company's penetration of all municipal issuance was 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Cost Structure

The Cost Structure for Assured Guaranty Ltd. centers on managing claims, servicing holding company debt, and funding the operational and regulatory requirements to maintain top-tier financial strength ratings. These costs are incurred across the Insurance and Corporate divisions.

Loss and loss adjustment expenses are a primary variable cost, though recent performance showed a favorable trend. For the third quarter of 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a net economic benefit of $38 million primarily related to legacy RMBS exposure and non-U.S. public finance exposure. This contrasts with the GAAP reported line item for the Insurance segment in Q3 2025, which showed a Loss expense (benefit) of ($31 million).

The holding company structure introduces fixed financing costs. Specifically, the interest expense on holding company debt, which is a major component of the Corporate division's costs, amounted to $24 million in the first quarter of 2025. This division reported an Adjusted operating loss of $20 million in Q1 2025, before considering tax benefits.

Underwriting, surveillance, and general operating expenses are detailed within the Insurance segment's operating costs for the third quarter of 2025 (amounts in millions):

Expense Category	Q3 2025 Amount (in millions)
Employee compensation and benefit expenses	$44
Other operating expenses	$32
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs (DAC)	$6

The total segment expenses for Q3 2025, excluding the loss benefit, were composed of these items plus DAC amortization. The sum of Employee compensation and benefit expenses and Other operating expenses was $76 million for the quarter.

Maintaining high financial strength ratings is a critical, non-negotiable cost driver. Assured Guaranty Ltd. incurs costs associated with maintaining capital levels well above regulatory or rating agency thresholds. As of June 30, 2025, S&P Global Ratings affirmed the AA financial strength ratings of the insurance subsidiaries and the A issuer credit rating of Assured Guaranty Ltd. Furthermore, S&P highlighted a 'robust capital position with a capital adequacy redundancy above S&P's 'AAA' stress level.' Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) also affirmed AA+ insurance financial strength ratings in August 2025. The management is committed to maintaining this excellent capital adequacy, which requires setting aside capital that could otherwise be deployed for growth or returned to shareholders.

Key elements contributing to the cost structure include:

• Net economic benefit from loss development in Q3 2025: $38 million.
• Interest expense for holding company debt in Q1 2025: $24 million.
• Corporate division operating loss in Q1 2025: $20 million.
• Insurance segment Employee compensation and benefit expenses in Q3 2025: $44 million.
• Capital adequacy maintained above S&P's 'AAA' stress level.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) - Canvas Business Model: Revenue Streams

You're looking at the core income drivers for Assured Guaranty Ltd. as of the third quarter of 2025. The revenue streams are heavily weighted toward premium generation from new business and the performance of their substantial investment portfolios. Honestly, the mix shows a company balancing its core insurance underwriting with its asset management capabilities.

Here's a quick look at the key components that made up the revenue picture for the three months ended September 30, 2025. We'll use the reported figures from the Q3 2025 earnings release to map this out.

Revenue Stream Component	Q3 2025 Amount (in millions)	Notes
Gross Written Premiums (GWP)	$75 million	Total GWP from U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, and global structured finance.
Scheduled Earned Premiums	Data Not Explicitly Stated	Contribution to adjusted operating income was higher than Q3 2024.
Investment Income (Net)	Calculated from Components	Components detailed below, including fixed maturity and alternative investments.
Equity in Earnings from Investees (e.g., Sound Point)	$3 million	Reported as Asset management adjusted operating income.

The investment income line is actually a blend of a few things, so let's break down what we know about the components that feed into the overall adjusted operating income. Remember, this is different from the GAAP net income figure of $105 million for the quarter.

When we look closer at the investment portfolio's contribution to adjusted operating income, you see a few moving parts:

• Net investment income on the externally managed fixed maturity portfolio increased by $4 million compared to Q3 2024.
• Net investment income included $9 million related to the CLO equity tranches in Q3 2025.
• There was a reduction in earnings of $7 million from the short-term investment portfolio due to declining interest rates and average balances.

The $3 million figure for Equity in earnings from investees is specifically tied to the Asset management segment, which includes the ownership interest in Sound Point. To be fair, the scheduled earned premiums component is a steady, recurring part of the insurance business, and its contribution to adjusted operating income was noted as being higher year-over-year, even if the exact dollar amount for Q3 2025 wasn't isolated in the same way as GWP or the investment line items.

Finance: draft the reconciliation between Net Investment Income components and the total reported Investment Income for the Insurance Segment by next Tuesday.