ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS): Análisis de 5 Fuerzas [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

Sumergirse en el paisaje estratégico de One Gas, Inc. (OGS), una potencia de distribución de gas natural que navega por el complejo mercado energético de 2024. Al diseccionar el marco de las cinco fuerzas de Michael Porter, presentaremos la dinámica crítica que moldea el posicionamiento competitivo de la compañía, desde Restricciones de proveedores y relaciones con los clientes con las amenazas en evolución de los sustitutos y los posibles nuevos participantes del mercado. Este análisis revela los intrincados desafíos estratégicos y las oportunidades que definen la resistencia de un gas en un sector de servicios públicos que transforman rápidamente.

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: poder de negociación de los proveedores

Fuentes limitadas de suministro de gas natural

One Gas, Inc. opera principalmente en Oklahoma, Kansas y Texas, con acceso a 3 regiones principales de producción de gas natural. A partir de 2024, la compañía depende de 67 proveedores de gas natural diferentes en estos estados.

Dependencias de infraestructura de tuberías

Un gas administra 39,000 millas de infraestructura de tuberías. Los acuerdos de transporte involucran a 12 principales compañías de energía de Midstream.

• Costo promedio de transporte de tuberías: $ 0.47 por MMBTU
• Duración del contrato: acuerdos de 5 a 10 años
• Puntos de interconexión: 287 en todos los territorios de servicio

Dinámica regulada del mercado de servicios públicos

La compañía opera bajo comisiones estatales de servicios públicos en Oklahoma, Kansas y Texas, con tarifas reguladas que limitan el poder de fijación de precios de proveedores.

Contratos de proveedores a largo plazo

Un gas mantiene contratos a largo plazo con el 87% de sus proveedores de gas natural, con una duración promedio de contrato de 7,2 años.

• Contratos de proveedores totales: 67
• Contratos a largo plazo: 58
• Valor promedio del contrato: $ 24.3 millones anuales

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: poder de negociación de los clientes

Características reguladas del mercado de servicios públicos

One Gas, Inc. opera en un mercado de servicios públicos regulado con dinámica específica del cliente:

Limitaciones de conmutación de clientes

Existen opciones limitadas de conmutación de clientes debido a la estructura de mercado regulada:

• Territorios de servicio cautivo con derechos de distribución exclusivos
• Áreas de servicio de monopolio reguladas por el estado
• No hay competencia directa dentro de las regiones geográficas definidas

Características de la demanda

Mecanismos de precios regulatorios

Aumentos de precios sujetos a una revisión regulatoria integral:

• Se requiere aprobación de la Comisión de la Corporación de Oklahoma
• Proceso de revisión de la Comisión de la Corporación de Kansas
• Supervisión de la Comisión de Servicios Públicos de Texas

One Gas, Inc. 2023 Total Clientes: 2,155,000

Ley de gas natural residencial anual promedio: $ 581

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: rivalidad competitiva

Competencia directa limitada en territorios de servicio de servicios públicos regulados

One Gas, Inc. atiende a 3 estados: Oklahoma, Kansas y Texas, que cubre aproximadamente 43,000 millas cuadradas. La compañía opera 3 servicios de gas natural: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service y Texas Gas Service.

Competir con otras compañías regionales de distribución de gas natural

Los competidores regionales incluyen Centerpoint Energy y Atmos Energy en los mercados geográficos.

• Energía CenterPoint: ingresos anuales de $ 14.3 mil millones
• Atmos Energy: $ 7.2 mil millones de ingresos anuales
• One Gas, Inc.: Ingresos anuales de $ 2.1 mil millones

Competencia potencial de proveedores de energía alternativos

Tendencias de consolidación en el sector de servicios públicos Creación de posibles oportunidades de fusión

Actividad de fusión y adquisición del sector de servicios públicos en 2023: 37 transacciones valoradas en $ 58.3 mil millones.

• Valor de transacción promedio: $ 1.57 mil millones
• Tasa de éxito de la fusión: 68%
• Tasa de aprobación regulatoria: 72%

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: amenaza de sustitutos

Alternativas emergentes de energía renovable

Según la Administración de Información de Energía de EE. UU. (EIA), las fuentes de energía renovable representaron el 20.1% de la generación de electricidad de EE. UU. En 2022. Las instalaciones de energía solar y eólica aumentaron en 46.7 gigavatios en 2022.

Sistemas de calefacción y enfriamiento eléctrico

Las ventas de bombas de calor en los Estados Unidos alcanzaron 4.3 millones de unidades en 2022, lo que representa un aumento del 15.2% de 2021.

• Eficiencia promedio de la bomba de calor: 300-400% en comparación con la eficiencia del horno de gas del 95%
• Ahorro de costos de energía anual estimado: $ 300- $ 800 por hogar

Tecnologías de eficiencia energética

El Departamento de Energía de EE. UU. Informa que las tecnologías de eficiencia energética podrían reducir el consumo de gas natural en un 20-30% en sectores residenciales y comerciales.

Tendencia de descarbonización

Las inversiones globales en energía limpia alcanzaron los $ 1.1 billones en 2022, un aumento del 12% desde 2021.

• La administración de Biden prometió $ 369 mil millones para iniciativas de energía limpia
• 40 estados han implementado estándares de cartera renovables

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: amenaza de nuevos participantes

Altos requisitos de capital para el desarrollo de infraestructura de servicios públicos

One Gas, Inc. requiere aproximadamente $ 500 millones a $ 1 mil millones en inversión de capital inicial para establecer la infraestructura de distribución de gas natural. El gasto de capital 2023 de la compañía fue de $ 416.7 millones, específicamente asignado al desarrollo y mantenimiento de la infraestructura.

Barreras regulatorias estrictas para ingresar al mercado de distribución de gas natural

Las barreras regulatorias incluyen requisitos de licencia extensos de comisiones estatales de servicios públicos. En 2023, la obtención de una licencia de distribución de gas natural implica:

• Garantía financiera mínima de $ 10 millones
• Documentación integral de cumplimiento de seguridad
• Evaluación del impacto ambiental
• Prueba de experiencia técnica

Inversión inicial significativa en redes de tuberías y distribución

One Gas, Inc. informa un costo promedio de $ 1.2 millones por milla de instalación de gasoductos de gas natural. El valor total de la infraestructura de la red excede los $ 3.5 mil millones a partir de 2023.

Aprobaciones regulatorias locales y estatales para la entrada al mercado

El proceso de aprobación regulatoria implica múltiples comisiones estatales con requisitos complejos. Tiempo promedio para la aprobación completa de la entrada del mercado: 18-24 meses.

• Revisión de la Comisión Reguladora de Energía Federal (FERC)
• Aprobación de la Comisión de Servicios Públicos del Estado
• Cumplimiento de la Agencia de Protección Ambiental
• Acuerdos de infraestructura municipal local

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at the competitive landscape for ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) as of late 2025. Here's the hard data on rivalry within their business segments.

Low direct competition as OGS is a regulated monopoly in its service territories

ONE Gas, Inc. provides natural gas distribution services to approximately 2.3 million customers.

• Market share in Kansas: 71%
• Market share in Oklahoma: 89%
• Market share in Texas: 13%

Rivalry exists in the capital markets against peers like Atmos Energy and NiSource

The rivalry in the capital markets is best seen when you stack up the market valuations. Here's a quick look at the market caps as of November 2025, plus some key metrics for ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS).

Atmos Energy's long-term earnings growth is pegged at 7.32%, while OGS guides for 4% to 6% through 2029.

Competition for new customer growth in developing areas of Texas and Oklahoma

Growth capital spending targets these developing areas.

• 2025 capital investments for extensions to new customers: approximately $180 million
• Total estimated 2025 capital investments: approximately $750 million
• New manufacturing projects announced since 2022: approximately $87 billion
• New manufacturing projects announced since 2021: nearly $25 billion

Growth is strongest in the major metropolitan areas across the territory.

Rivalry for large commercial/industrial load that can choose alternative energy providers

The risk from alternatives is noted in regulatory filings.

• Alternative energy competition includes: electricity, solar power, wind power, geothermal energy and biofuels
• Legislation context: Natural gas is a core energy resource, backed by energy choice legislation in all jurisdictions

The 2025 guidance reflects the benefit of new rates and customer growth.

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're analyzing the long-term viability of ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) against shifting energy sources. The threat of substitutes for a regulated gas utility like ONE Gas, which serves approximately 2.3 million customers across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, is a critical factor in any valuation model.

The immediate threat remains moderate, honestly, because the economics of switching are challenging for existing customers. Natural gas prices, while volatile, have offered competitive pricing, with the average household using natural gas for heating, cooking, and clothes drying saving about $1,132 per year compared to electric alternatives as of 2025. Furthermore, OGS is actively investing in its system, with estimated capital investments of approximately $750 million planned for 2025, reinforcing the existing infrastructure.

However, the long-term picture is dominated by the rapid deployment of renewable electricity generation, which acts as a direct substitute for natural gas in power generation and, increasingly, in end-use applications like building heating and cooling. Nationally, developers planned to add 33 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic capacity in 2025, representing more than half of the total 64 GW of new generating capacity expected to come online. Texas, a key OGS market, is a major driver, accounting for 27% (3.2 GW) of new solar capacity installed in the first half of 2025, with an additional 9.7 GW planned by year-end. This shift is evident as natural gas lost market share in the U.S. electric power sector in early 2025.

The substitution threat manifests across the service territory in different ways, as shown by the state-level energy mix data:

Note: ONE Gas serves approximately 2.3 million customers total across all three states. Oklahoma ranks tenth in the nation for solar power potential.

Electrification mandates and evolving building codes present a clear pathway to limiting future gas hookups, which directly impacts OGS's customer growth projections. While direct mandates in Kansas and Texas are not detailed here, the trend is clear in other major markets. For instance, in New York, new construction under seven stories must be all-electric starting December 31, 2025. If similar regulations are adopted in OGS's service areas, it would directly cap the growth of new residential and commercial gas load. The ~24,000 new meter sets added by OGS on a TTM basis as of August 31, 2025, represent the current growth vector that such mandates would target.

Energy efficiency technologies also erode demand, though the pace can be slow. While the prompt suggests a potential reduction of 20-30%, concrete data for OGS's specific customer base is not available. What we do see is that globally, the primary energy intensity improvement is projected to be 1.8% in 2025, an acceleration from just 1% in 2024. In the U.S., total natural gas consumption is forecast to average a record 91.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, but this is driven by increases in the residential and commercial sectors offsetting decreases in the power sector. The slow pace of electrification in the residential sector, with heat pumps covering only around 8% of residential space heating in the EU as of 2025, suggests that for OGS, the immediate impact of efficiency and electrification on existing customers is not yet a rapid decline.

The key actions for OGS to monitor are:

• New building permit applications in major metro areas like Austin and Oklahoma City.
• Adoption of state-level building codes mirroring New York's December 31, 2025, all-electric start date.
• The rate of new solar capacity additions in Texas, which reached 3.2 GW in H1 2025.
• The success of OGS's capital plan, which includes an estimated $180 million for extensions to new customers in 2025.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

You're analyzing the barriers to entry for a new natural gas utility, and honestly, it's a fortress. For ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS), the threat from new entrants is exceptionally low, almost negligible, because the industry is fundamentally structured against newcomers. This isn't like launching a new software company; this is about digging trenches and laying steel across states.

The primary deterrent is the need for a government-granted utility franchise. You can't just decide to serve Tulsa or Kansas City with gas; you need explicit permission from the relevant state commissions, which are designed to protect the incumbent's service territory. This regulatory moat is deep. Furthermore, the sheer scale of the physical infrastructure required presents a massive, almost insurmountable, capital hurdle. For context, ONE Gas, Inc. is planning capital expenditures (capex) of approximately $750 million for 2025, which is largely for system integrity and replacement projects.

To give you a sense of the investment required just to compete on infrastructure, let's look at the capital deployment ONE Gas, Inc. is undertaking in 2025. Remember, this is maintenance and growth capital, not the sunk cost of starting from scratch:

That $750 million figure for 2025 is just ONE Gas, Inc.'s annual spend; a new entrant would need to match or exceed that just to build a competitive footprint, assuming they could even get permission to lay pipe next to OGS's existing lines. Also, consider the existing footprint ONE Gas, Inc. already controls. They have an established network of approximately ~45,800 miles of distribution and transmission pipelines across their service territories.

The regulatory gauntlet is another major blocker. Getting approval involves navigating complex state-level oversight. You'd have to satisfy multiple commissions simultaneously, like the Kansas Corporation Commission (KCC) and the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (OCC), which review everything from safety to financial prudence. ONE Gas, Inc. itself is constantly engaged in this process, for example, filing for rate increases with the KCC and the Texas Gas Service filing for its own program requests.

The regulatory approval process is extensive, involving:

• Securing necessary state utility franchise rights.
• Filing for rate cases to justify infrastructure investment.
• Demonstrating safety and reliability compliance.
• Gaining approval for construction permits across jurisdictions.

To be fair, while the existing ~45,800 miles of pipeline is a physical barrier, the regulatory authorization to build that network in the first place is the real killer for potential competitors. It's a highly regulated utility business for a defintely good reason: public safety and service continuity. Finance: draft sensitivity analysis on regulatory approval timelines by next Wednesday.