One Gas, Inc. (OGS): 5 Analyse des forces [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Plongez dans le paysage stratégique de One Gas, Inc. (OGS), une puissance de distribution de gaz naturel naviguant sur le marché de l'énergie complexe de 2024. Les contraintes des fournisseurs et les relations avec les clients avec les menaces en évolution des substituts et des nouveaux entrants potentiels du marché. Cette analyse révèle les défis et opportunités stratégiques complexes qui définissent la résilience d'un gaz dans un secteur des services publics en transformation rapide.

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining Power of Fournissers

Sources d'alimentation en gaz naturel limité

One Gas, Inc. opère principalement en Oklahoma, au Kansas et au Texas, avec accès à 3 grandes régions de production de gaz naturel. En 2024, la société s'appuie sur 67 fournisseurs de gaz naturel différents dans ces États.

Dépendances des infrastructures de pipeline

Un gaz gère 39 000 miles d'infrastructures de pipeline. Les accords de transport impliquent 12 grandes sociétés d'énergie intermédiaire.

• Coût moyen du transport du pipeline: 0,47 $ par MMBTU
• Durée du contrat: accords de 5 à 10 ans
• Points d'interconnexion: 287 entre les territoires de service

Dynamique du marché des services publics réglementés

La société opère en vertu des commissions des services publics d'État en Oklahoma, au Kansas et au Texas, avec des tarifs réglementés qui limitent la puissance de tarification des fournisseurs.

Contrats de fournisseurs à long terme

Un gaz maintient des contrats à long terme avec 87% de ses fournisseurs de gaz naturel, avec une durée de contrat moyenne de 7,2 ans.

• Contrats totaux des fournisseurs: 67
• Contrats à long terme: 58
• Valeur du contrat moyen: 24,3 millions de dollars par an

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining Power of Clients

Caractéristiques du marché des services publics réglementés

One Gas, Inc. opère sur un marché des services publics réglementés avec une dynamique spécifique des clients:

Limites de commutation du client

Des options de commutation des clients limitées existent en raison de la structure du marché réglementée:

• Territoires de service captif avec des droits de distribution exclusifs
• Zones de service monopole réglementée par l'État
• Aucune concurrence directe dans les régions géographiques définies

Caractéristiques de la demande

Mécanismes de prix réglementaires

Augmentation des prix soumise à une revue réglementaire complète:

• Approbation de la Commission de l'Oklahoma Corporation requise
• Processus d'examen de la Commission de la Kansas Corporation
• Texas Public Utility Commission Oversight

One Gas, Inc. 2023 TOTAL CLIENTS: 2 155 000

Facture annuelle moyenne de gaz naturel résidentiel: 581 $

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Rivalry compétitif

Concurrence directe limitée dans les territoires de services utilitaires réglementés

One Gas, Inc. dessert 3 États: Oklahoma, Kansas et Texas, couvrant environ 43 000 milles carrés. La société exploite 3 services publics de gaz naturel: l'Oklahoma Natural Gas, le Kansas Gas Service et Texas Gas Service.

En concurrence avec d'autres sociétés régionales de distribution de gaz naturel

Les concurrents régionaux incluent CenterPoint Energy et Atmos Energy sur les marchés géographiques.

• CenterPoint Energy: 14,3 milliards de dollars de revenus annuels
• Atmos Energy: 7,2 milliards de dollars de revenus annuels
• One Gas, Inc.: Revenu annuel de 2,1 milliards de dollars

Concurrence potentielle des fournisseurs d'énergie alternatifs

Les tendances de consolidation du secteur des services publics créant des opportunités de fusion potentielles

Mélange et activité d'acquisition du secteur des services publics en 2023: 37 transactions d'une valeur de 58,3 milliards de dollars.

• Valeur de transaction moyenne: 1,57 milliard de dollars
• Taux de réussite de la fusion: 68%
• Taux d'approbation réglementaire: 72%

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Five Forces de Porter: menace de substituts

Alternatives émergentes en énergie renouvelable

Selon l'US Energy Information Administration (EIA), les sources d'énergie renouvelables ont représenté 20,1% de la production d'électricité américaine en 2022. Les installations solaires et éoliennes ont augmenté de 46,7 gigawatts en 2022.

Systèmes de chauffage et de refroidissement électriques

Aux États-Unis, les ventes de pompes à chaleur ont atteint 4,3 millions d'unités en 2022, ce qui représente une augmentation de 15,2% par rapport à 2021.

• Efficacité moyenne de la pompe à chaleur: 300 à 400% par rapport à l'efficacité du four à gaz de 95%
• Économies de coûts énergétiques annuelles estimées: 300 $ - 800 $ par ménage

Technologies d'efficacité énergétique

Le département américain de l'Énergie rapporte que les technologies d'efficacité énergétique pourraient réduire la consommation de gaz naturel de 20 à 30% dans les secteurs résidentiel et commercial.

Tendance de décarbonisation

Les investissements mondiaux dans l'énergie propre ont atteint 1,1 billion de dollars en 2022, soit une augmentation de 12% par rapport à 2021.

• L'administration Biden a promis 369 milliards de dollars pour les initiatives d'énergie propre
• 40 États ont mis en œuvre des normes de portefeuille renouvelables

One Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Menace des nouveaux entrants

Exigences de capital élevé pour le développement des infrastructures des services publics

One Gas, Inc. nécessite environ 500 millions à 1 milliard de dollars d'investissement en capital pour établir une infrastructure de distribution de gaz naturel. Les dépenses en capital de 2023 de la société étaient de 416,7 millions de dollars, spécifiquement allouées au développement et à la maintenance des infrastructures.

Des obstacles réglementaires stricts pour entrer dans le marché de la distribution du gaz naturel

Les obstacles réglementaires comprennent des exigences de licence étendues des commissions des services publics publics. En 2023, l'obtention d'une licence de distribution de gaz naturel implique:

• Minimum 10 millions de dollars Garantie financière
• Documentation complète de la conformité de la sécurité
• Évaluation de l'impact environnemental
• Preuve d'expertise technique

Investissement initial important dans les réseaux de pipeline et de distribution

One Gas, Inc. signale un coût moyen de 1,2 million de dollars par mile d'installation de gazoduc. La valeur totale de l'infrastructure du réseau dépasse 3,5 milliards de dollars en 2023.

Approbations réglementaires locales et étatiques pour l'entrée du marché

Le processus d'approbation réglementaire implique plusieurs commissions d'État avec des exigences complexes. Temps moyen pour l'approbation complète de l'entrée sur le marché: 18-24 mois.

• Revue de la Commission fédérale de la réglementation de l'énergie (FERC)
• Approbation de la Commission des services publics d'État
• Conformité à l'agence de protection de l'environnement
• Accords d'infrastructure municipale locaux

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at the competitive landscape for ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) as of late 2025. Here's the hard data on rivalry within their business segments.

Low direct competition as OGS is a regulated monopoly in its service territories

ONE Gas, Inc. provides natural gas distribution services to approximately 2.3 million customers.

• Market share in Kansas: 71%
• Market share in Oklahoma: 89%
• Market share in Texas: 13%

Rivalry exists in the capital markets against peers like Atmos Energy and NiSource

The rivalry in the capital markets is best seen when you stack up the market valuations. Here's a quick look at the market caps as of November 2025, plus some key metrics for ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS).

Atmos Energy's long-term earnings growth is pegged at 7.32%, while OGS guides for 4% to 6% through 2029.

Competition for new customer growth in developing areas of Texas and Oklahoma

Growth capital spending targets these developing areas.

• 2025 capital investments for extensions to new customers: approximately $180 million
• Total estimated 2025 capital investments: approximately $750 million
• New manufacturing projects announced since 2022: approximately $87 billion
• New manufacturing projects announced since 2021: nearly $25 billion

Growth is strongest in the major metropolitan areas across the territory.

Rivalry for large commercial/industrial load that can choose alternative energy providers

The risk from alternatives is noted in regulatory filings.

• Alternative energy competition includes: electricity, solar power, wind power, geothermal energy and biofuels
• Legislation context: Natural gas is a core energy resource, backed by energy choice legislation in all jurisdictions

The 2025 guidance reflects the benefit of new rates and customer growth.

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're analyzing the long-term viability of ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) against shifting energy sources. The threat of substitutes for a regulated gas utility like ONE Gas, which serves approximately 2.3 million customers across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, is a critical factor in any valuation model.

The immediate threat remains moderate, honestly, because the economics of switching are challenging for existing customers. Natural gas prices, while volatile, have offered competitive pricing, with the average household using natural gas for heating, cooking, and clothes drying saving about $1,132 per year compared to electric alternatives as of 2025. Furthermore, OGS is actively investing in its system, with estimated capital investments of approximately $750 million planned for 2025, reinforcing the existing infrastructure.

However, the long-term picture is dominated by the rapid deployment of renewable electricity generation, which acts as a direct substitute for natural gas in power generation and, increasingly, in end-use applications like building heating and cooling. Nationally, developers planned to add 33 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic capacity in 2025, representing more than half of the total 64 GW of new generating capacity expected to come online. Texas, a key OGS market, is a major driver, accounting for 27% (3.2 GW) of new solar capacity installed in the first half of 2025, with an additional 9.7 GW planned by year-end. This shift is evident as natural gas lost market share in the U.S. electric power sector in early 2025.

The substitution threat manifests across the service territory in different ways, as shown by the state-level energy mix data:

Note: ONE Gas serves approximately 2.3 million customers total across all three states. Oklahoma ranks tenth in the nation for solar power potential.

Electrification mandates and evolving building codes present a clear pathway to limiting future gas hookups, which directly impacts OGS's customer growth projections. While direct mandates in Kansas and Texas are not detailed here, the trend is clear in other major markets. For instance, in New York, new construction under seven stories must be all-electric starting December 31, 2025. If similar regulations are adopted in OGS's service areas, it would directly cap the growth of new residential and commercial gas load. The ~24,000 new meter sets added by OGS on a TTM basis as of August 31, 2025, represent the current growth vector that such mandates would target.

Energy efficiency technologies also erode demand, though the pace can be slow. While the prompt suggests a potential reduction of 20-30%, concrete data for OGS's specific customer base is not available. What we do see is that globally, the primary energy intensity improvement is projected to be 1.8% in 2025, an acceleration from just 1% in 2024. In the U.S., total natural gas consumption is forecast to average a record 91.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, but this is driven by increases in the residential and commercial sectors offsetting decreases in the power sector. The slow pace of electrification in the residential sector, with heat pumps covering only around 8% of residential space heating in the EU as of 2025, suggests that for OGS, the immediate impact of efficiency and electrification on existing customers is not yet a rapid decline.

The key actions for OGS to monitor are:

• New building permit applications in major metro areas like Austin and Oklahoma City.
• Adoption of state-level building codes mirroring New York's December 31, 2025, all-electric start date.
• The rate of new solar capacity additions in Texas, which reached 3.2 GW in H1 2025.
• The success of OGS's capital plan, which includes an estimated $180 million for extensions to new customers in 2025.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

You're analyzing the barriers to entry for a new natural gas utility, and honestly, it's a fortress. For ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS), the threat from new entrants is exceptionally low, almost negligible, because the industry is fundamentally structured against newcomers. This isn't like launching a new software company; this is about digging trenches and laying steel across states.

The primary deterrent is the need for a government-granted utility franchise. You can't just decide to serve Tulsa or Kansas City with gas; you need explicit permission from the relevant state commissions, which are designed to protect the incumbent's service territory. This regulatory moat is deep. Furthermore, the sheer scale of the physical infrastructure required presents a massive, almost insurmountable, capital hurdle. For context, ONE Gas, Inc. is planning capital expenditures (capex) of approximately $750 million for 2025, which is largely for system integrity and replacement projects.

To give you a sense of the investment required just to compete on infrastructure, let's look at the capital deployment ONE Gas, Inc. is undertaking in 2025. Remember, this is maintenance and growth capital, not the sunk cost of starting from scratch:

That $750 million figure for 2025 is just ONE Gas, Inc.'s annual spend; a new entrant would need to match or exceed that just to build a competitive footprint, assuming they could even get permission to lay pipe next to OGS's existing lines. Also, consider the existing footprint ONE Gas, Inc. already controls. They have an established network of approximately ~45,800 miles of distribution and transmission pipelines across their service territories.

The regulatory gauntlet is another major blocker. Getting approval involves navigating complex state-level oversight. You'd have to satisfy multiple commissions simultaneously, like the Kansas Corporation Commission (KCC) and the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (OCC), which review everything from safety to financial prudence. ONE Gas, Inc. itself is constantly engaged in this process, for example, filing for rate increases with the KCC and the Texas Gas Service filing for its own program requests.

The regulatory approval process is extensive, involving:

• Securing necessary state utility franchise rights.
• Filing for rate cases to justify infrastructure investment.
• Demonstrating safety and reliability compliance.
• Gaining approval for construction permits across jurisdictions.

To be fair, while the existing ~45,800 miles of pipeline is a physical barrier, the regulatory authorization to build that network in the first place is the real killer for potential competitors. It's a highly regulated utility business for a defintely good reason: public safety and service continuity. Finance: draft sensitivity analysis on regulatory approval timelines by next Wednesday.