|
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT): Business Model Canvas [Dec-2025 Updated] |
Fully Editable: Tailor To Your Needs In Excel Or Sheets
Professional Design: Trusted, Industry-Standard Templates
Investor-Approved Valuation Models
MAC/PC Compatible, Fully Unlocked
No Expertise Is Needed; Easy To Follow
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Bundle
You're digging into one of the largest greenfield energy projects in the US, and the sheer scale of NextDecade Corporation (NEXT)'s Rio Grande LNG facility demands a close look at its model. This isn't about quick flips; it's about locking in $\text{20-year}$, fee-based contracts to support a $\mathbf{24 \text{ MTPA}}$ export capacity, backed by over $\mathbf{\$13.4 \text{ billion}}$ in closed financing for just the latest two trains. Before you model the returns, you need to understand the structure that supports $\mathbf{\$6.7 \text{ billion}}$ per-train CapEx and secures partners like TotalEnergies. Keep reading below for the full, precise breakdown of how NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) plans to turn this massive construction effort into long-term, stable revenue.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Key Partnerships
You're looking at the backbone of NextDecade Corporation's massive expansion at the Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) facility, which is now moving into full execution mode across multiple trains. The partnerships here are about de-risking multi-billion dollar construction projects through fixed-price contracts and committed long-term revenue streams.
Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Partner
Bechtel Energy Inc. serves as the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction partner, critical for delivering the liquefaction trains. The relationship is governed by lump-sum, turnkey contracts, which shift most of the cost and schedule risk to Bechtel Energy Inc. for the expansion trains.
The financial scale of these contracts is substantial:
- Phase 1 (Trains 1-3) final EPC cost at Notice to Proceed (NTP) was approximately $12.0 billion.
- Train 4 EPC contract value is approximately $4.77 billion.
- Train 5 EPC contract value is about $4.32 billion.
- The combined EPC value for Train 4 and Train 5 is approximately $9 billion.
As of September 2025, construction progress on Phase 1 showed the following overall completion percentages:
| Component | Overall Project Completion Percentage | Engineering Complete | Procurement Complete | Construction Complete |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trains 1 and 2 and Common Facilities | 55.9% | 95.0% | 88.8% | 29.8% |
| Train 3 | 33.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Guaranteed substantial completion for Train 5 is targeted for the first half of 2031.
Financial Investors for Project Equity
The financing structure relies heavily on institutional investors committing significant equity to the individual train joint ventures (JVs). These partners include Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), a part of BlackRock, GIC, and Mubadala Investment Company.
For the expansion trains, the equity structure is highly detailed:
- Phase 1 (Trains 1-3) saw financial commitments of approximately $5.9 billion from GIP, GIC, Mubadala, and TotalEnergies.
- Train 4 (FID September 9, 2025): Total committed financing was approximately $6.7 billion. Equity commitments from GIP, GIC, Mubadala, and TotalEnergies totaled approximately $1.69 billion. NextDecade committed approximately $1.13 billion. GIP committed up to $1.5 billion for an initial 50% stake, which adjusts down to 30% after certain returns are met. NextDecade holds an initial 40% interest, increasing to 60% upon investor returns.
- Train 5 (FID October 16, 2025): Total committed financing was approximately $6.7 billion. Financial commitments from GIP, GIC, and Mubadala were approximately $1.29 billion. NextDecade committed approximately $1.29 billion. NextDecade holds an initial 50% interest, increasing to 70% upon investor returns.
Strategic Equity Partner and Major LNG Offtaker
TotalEnergies is a key partner, acting as both an equity holder and a major long-term buyer of the LNG produced.
TotalEnergies' involvement across the project phases includes:
- Phase 1 (Trains 1-3): Holds a 16.7% interest and has committed to offtake 5.4 Mtpa. The company also holds a 17.1% stake in NextDecade itself.
- Train 4: Took a direct 10% stake in the JV. The associated Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) is for 1.5 Mtpa over 20 years. TotalEnergies indirectly holds next to 7% in Train 4 via its NextDecade shareholding.
- Train 5: Commercialization is complete with 20-year SPAs totaling 4.5 MTPA with JERA, EQT Corporation, and ConocoPhillips. TotalEnergies declined to invest or purchase long-term gas from Train 5.
Senior Secured, Non-Recourse Bank Credit Facilities
Project debt is secured through senior secured, non-recourse bank credit facilities, which is standard for large infrastructure financing, meaning the debt is secured by the project assets, not NextDecade Corporation's balance sheet.
The debt financing closed for each phase is itemized:
| Project Component | Bank Credit Facility Amount | Maturity | Additional Debt Instruments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 (Trains 1-3) | $11.1 billion (Construction Term Loans) | N/A | $500 million Working Capital Facility; $700 million Private Placement Notes. |
| Train 4 | $3.85 billion | Seven year | $734 million FinCo Loan; $600 million Super FinCo Loan. |
| Train 5 | $3.59 billion | Seven year | $500 million Private Placement Notes (bearing interest at 6.56%). |
The Train 5 Private Placement Notes are set to amortize over 20 years beginning in September 2031.
Natural Gas Suppliers for Feed Gas
While specific long-term feed gas supply contracts are not explicitly detailed as a separate partnership category here, the commercial support via LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) demonstrates secured demand for the produced gas, which is essential for securing financing.
Total contracted LNG offtake volume for Train 5 is 4.5 MTPA from JERA, EQT Corporation, and ConocoPhillips.
- JERA: 2.0 MTPA for 20 years.
- EQT Corporation: 1.5 MTPA for 20 years.
- ConocoPhillips: 1.0 MTPA for 20 years.
All Train 5 SPAs are on a free on board (FOB) basis at a price indexed to Henry Hub.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Key Activities
You're looking at the core actions NextDecade Corporation is driving to bring its massive liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity online and secure its future growth. These aren't passive goals; they are capital-intensive, execution-heavy activities central to the company's value creation.
Construction of the Rio Grande LNG Facility (Trains 1-5)
The primary activity is executing the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contracts with Bechtel Energy Inc. for the first five trains. As of September 2025, Phase 1 construction is tracking ahead of schedule, with overall project completion for Trains 1 and 2 and the common facilities at 55.9%. Digging into the details of that progress:
- Engineering completion for Trains 1 and 2 reached 95.0%.
- Procurement for Trains 1 and 2 was 88.8% complete.
- Construction progress for Trains 1 and 2 stood at 29.8%.
- Train 3 showed 33.4% overall completion, with its construction component at only 4.5%.
The focus has shifted heavily toward the final two trains of Phase 1, with Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) recently achieved:
| Train | FID Date | Expected Capacity | Estimated Project Cost | Guaranteed Substantial Completion |
| Train 4 | September 9, 2025 | 6 MTPA | Approximately $6.7 billion | Second half of 2030 |
| Train 5 | October 16, 2025 | 6 MTPA | Approximately $6.7 billion | First half of 2031 |
The expected total liquefaction production capacity from Rio Grande LNG Trains 1 through 5 is 30 MTPA. That's roughly 5% of projected global liquefaction supply in the early 2030s.
Securing long-term 20-year LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs)
Securing long-term offtake is non-negotiable for project financing, and NextDecade Corporation has been active in locking in these 20-year contracts. The commercialization for Train 5 was completed in Q3 2025.
The SPAs supporting the committed capacity include:
- Train 4 Customers: A subsidiary of Aramco (1.2 MTPA), TotalEnergies, and ADNOC.
- Train 5 Customers: EQT Corporation (1.5 MTPA), ConocoPhillips (1.0 MTPA), and JERA (2.0 MTPA).
The Train 5 SPAs alone total 4.5 MTPA. All these agreements are on a free on board (FOB) basis at a price indexed to Henry Hub.
Finalizing project financing and achieving Final Investment Decisions (FIDs)
The achievement of FIDs for Trains 4 and 5 was transformative, allowing the company to close substantial project-level financing packages without a material impact to NextDecade shares outstanding. The combined financing for these two trains exceeded $13.4 billion.
For Train 4, the financing closed around $6.7 billion, structured as:
- $3.85 billion senior secured, non-recourse bank credit facility.
- $1.13 billion commitment from NextDecade.
- $1.70 billion in equity commitments from partners Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), GIC, Mubadala Investment Company, and TotalEnergies.
NextDecade holds an initial economic interest of 40% in Train 4, which steps up to 60% after the Financial Investors meet certain return hurdles. For Train 5, the financing also closed around $6.7 billion, including a $3.59 billion term loan and $1.29 billion equity commitment from NextDecade, with an initial economic interest of 50%, stepping up to 70%.
Development and permitting for expansion capacity (Trains 6-8)
NextDecade Corporation is actively planning to double the site's capacity. Trains 6 through 8 are wholly owned by NextDecade and are cumulatively expected to add approximately 18 MTPA to total liquefaction capacity.
The site has space for up to 10 liquefaction trains, suggesting a total potential capacity near 60 MTPA. Train 6 is being developed inside the existing levee adjacent to Phase 1. The company initiated the pre-filing process with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for Train 6 and an additional marine berth in late 2025, with a full application expected in 2026. Trains 7 and 8 are expected to add approximately 12 MTPA capacity combined.
Developing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects
NextDecade Corporation is exploring a potential carbon capture and storage project at the Rio Grande LNG Facility site. The site has sufficient space for this potential CCS project alongside the planned liquefaction trains.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Key Resources
The Key Resources for NextDecade Corporation center on its flagship asset, the Rio Grande LNG Facility, and the associated commercial and regulatory achievements necessary to move capacity into construction.
The physical asset is the Rio Grande LNG Facility site in Brownsville, Texas, which is being developed with a potential for up to 10 liquefaction trains. The total liquefaction capacity currently under construction or in development at the site is approximately 48 MTPA. NextDecade Corporation is already evaluating Trains 6 through 8, which could increase total site capacity to nearly 60 MTPA.
Commercial commitment is a critical resource, with NextDecade Corporation reporting total committed capacity across five trains reaching 30 MTPA as of late 2025. Train 4 is supported by long-term Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) totaling 4.6 MTPA. Train 5 has secured 4.5 MTPA under 20-year LNG SPAs.
Securing capital for expansion is a major resource, as NextDecade Corporation advanced over $13.4 billion in committed financing across Trains 4 and 5. Train 4 alone successfully closed on approximately $6.7 billion in committed financing.
| Financing Component | Train 4 Amount | Train 5 Status/Cost Estimate |
| Total Project Cost Estimate | Approximately US$6.68 billion | Expected total project costs of approximately US$6.7 billion |
| Debt Financing (Term Loan) | US$3.85 billion term loan facility | Expected to enter into bank facilities for the debt portion |
| Equity Commitments from Partners | US$1.70 billion from Global Infrastructure Partners (a part of BlackRock), GIC, Mubadala Investment Company, and TotalEnergies | Financial Investors have options to provide 50% of the equity funding |
| EPC Contract Value (Bechtel Energy) | Approximately US$4.77 billion | Agreed to pay Bechtel approximately US$4.32 billion |
Regulatory approvals provide the necessary foundation for construction and operation. The Rio Grande LNG Facility has been permitted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and authorized by the Department of Energy (DOE) to export up to 27 MTPA of LNG.
- Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a final order on remand in August 2025, reaffirming authorization for the first five liquefaction trains; this order was no longer appealable to FERC as of October 30, 2025.
- The project has achieved positive Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for both Train 4 (September 9, 2025) and Train 5 (October 16, 2025).
- The facility is located in a region historically subject to fewer and less severe weather events relative to other U.S. Gulf Coast locations.
Engineering and technology expertise is embodied by the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) partnership with Bechtel Energy. The project has issued full Notices to Proceed (NTPs) to Bechtel for both Train 4 and Train 5. Progress on Phase 1 (Trains 1-3 and common facilities) reached 55.9% completion as of September 2025.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Value Propositions
You're looking at the core promises NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) is making to its customers and stakeholders as of late 2025. These aren't just vague goals; they are backed by signed agreements and active construction milestones. Honestly, the value proposition here is about locking in long-term, secure supply from a strategically advantaged US asset.
Secure, long-term LNG supply via 20-year, Henry Hub-indexed contracts.
NextDecade Corporation has successfully commercialized capacity across its first five trains by securing long-term Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs). These contracts are the bedrock of the project's bankability, offering customers price certainty tied to the U.S. benchmark.
- Train 4 commercialization is complete, totaling 4.6 MTPA sold to ADNOC, Aramco, and TotalEnergies.
- Train 5 has secured 4.5 MTPA of offtake commitments from JERA, EQT Corporation, and ConocoPhillips.
- All announced SPAs are for a 20-year term.
- Pricing for these volumes is indexed to the Henry Hub.
Access to cost-competitive U.S. natural gas from the Permian Basin.
The Rio Grande LNG Facility's location is a key differentiator. It is situated to capitalize on the massive, low-cost production base of the U.S. shale plays. NextDecade Corporation explicitly intends to develop the largest LNG export solution linking Permian Basin associated gas to the global market, which is designed to create value for producers and customers alike. The site is also noted for its proximity to the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale resources.
Large-scale export capacity, totaling approximately 24 MTPA under construction.
The scale of the Rio Grande LNG Facility is significant, with capacity being brought online in phases. As of late 2025, the capacity that has achieved a Final Investment Decision (FID) and is moving into active construction or is already underway totals 24 MTPA.
- Phase 1 (Trains 1 through 3) contributes approximately 18 MTPA.
- Train 4, which received FID in September 2025, adds 6 MTPA.
- The total potential capacity at the site, including Trains 5, 6, 7, and 8, is up to 48 MTPA under construction or in development.
Lower-carbon energy solution through planned CCS integration.
To meet evolving global energy standards, NextDecade Corporation is planning for the integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. This is positioned as a way to offer a lower-carbon intensity LNG product to the market, supporting the long-term sustainability of the supply.
Reliable, on-schedule project execution with Bechtel EPC contracts.
The company relies on Bechtel Energy Inc. for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) services, which is critical for on-time delivery. You can see the progress on the existing and newly sanctioned trains:
| Project Component | EPC Contract Value (Approximate) | FID/NTP Date | Guaranteed Substantial Completion | Project Completion (as of Sept 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trains 1 & 2 and Common Facilities | Part of Phase 1 (Not Separately Valued Here) | N/A (Under Construction) | Late 2027 (Phase 1 Estimate) | 55.9% |
| Train 3 | Part of Phase 1 (Not Separately Valued Here) | N/A (Under Construction) | Late 2027 (Phase 1 Estimate) | 33.4% |
| Train 4 | $4.77 billion (Refreshed) | September 9, 2025 | Second half of 2030 | N/A (Post-FID) |
| Train 5 | $4.32 billion (New) | October 16, 2025 | First half of 2031 | N/A (Post-FID) |
The EPC contracts for Trains 4 and 5, which total approximately $9 billion, had pricing validity secured through September 15, 2025, which helped lock in costs ahead of the FIDs. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Relationships
You're looking at how NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) locks in its massive, multi-decade revenue streams. It's all about deep, strategic relationships with the biggest names in global energy. This isn't transactional; it's about structuring deals that make partners financially interdependent on the success of the Rio Grande LNG Facility.
The core of this strategy is securing long-term, high-volume commitments before sanctioning new trains. For instance, Train 4, which achieved a positive Final Investment Decision (FID) on September 9, 2025, is commercially supported by 4.6 MTPA of 20-year LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs). This volume is a direct result of that high-touch engagement.
These contractual relationships are cemented by 20-year, take-or-pay SPAs. That long duration provides revenue certainty that underpins the massive project financing. Here's a look at the contracted volumes supporting the trains that have reached FID or are nearing it as of late 2025:
- For Train 4, the contracted volumes total 4.6 MTPA across three majors.
- For Train 5, commercialization is complete, supported by 4.5 MTPA under 20-year SPAs.
- The pricing on these SPAs is consistently indexed to Henry Hub, on a free on board (FOB) basis.
The key customers securing these long-term offtake agreements include major international energy players. You see the direct evidence of this strategic alignment in the partners involved in the project-level joint ventures (JVs) that fund the construction:
| Train | Customer/Partner | Contract/Commitment Type | Volume/Value | Term/Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Train 4 | Aramco | 20-year SPA | 1.2 MTPA | 20 years |
| Train 4 | TotalEnergies | 20-year SPA | 1.5 MTPA | 20 years |
| Train 4 | ADNOC | 20-year SPA | (Part of 4.6 MTPA total) | 20 years |
| Train 4 | GIP, GIC, Mubadala, TotalEnergies | Equity JV Financing | Approx. $1.69 billion in commitments | JV Structure |
| Train 5 | JERA | 20-year SPA | 2.0 MTPA | 20 years |
| Train 5 | EQT Corporation | 20-year SPA | 1.5 MTPA | 20 years |
| Train 5 | ConocoPhillips | 20-year SPA | 1.0 MTPA | 20 years |
The joint venture structures are designed to align equity partners' interests directly with project success. For Train 4, NextDecade Corporation expects to fund 40% of the equity commitment, with an initial economic interest of 40% in distributions, which steps up to 60% once the equity partners achieve certain returns on their investments. This structure definitely helps drive the high-touch approach needed to get to FID.
For Train 5, which saw its FID in the fourth quarter of 2025, the structure is even more favorable to NextDecade Corporation post-initial buildout. NextDecade holds an initial economic interest of 50% of distributions, stepping up to 70% when the equity partners hit their return hurdles. The total project cost for Train 5 and related infrastructure is expected to total approximately $6.7 billion.
Securing these FIDs required a very hands-on, relationship-driven approach. You see this in the financing close for Train 4 on September 9, 2025, which was approximately $6.7 billion, and the Train 5 financing close on October 16, 2025, also approximately $6.7 billion. These massive capital raises, involving partners like Global Infrastructure Partners (a part of BlackRock), GIC, and Mubadala Investment Company, don't happen without years of direct, strategic engagement with the decision-makers at these international majors. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Channels
The primary channel for NextDecade Corporation is the physical export infrastructure at the Rio Grande LNG Export Terminal located at the Port of Brownsville, Texas, on approximately 1,000 acres.
The facility's total potential liquefaction capacity is designed for up to 10 liquefaction trains, totaling approximately 48 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) of potential capacity currently under construction and in development.
Commercialization milestones for the first five trains, which represent approximately 30 MTPA of committed capacity as of late 2025, define the near-term channel output.
Here is a breakdown of the liquefaction trains that define the current export channel:
| Train | Expected Capacity (MTPA) | Final Investment Decision (FID) Date | Guaranteed Substantial Completion | Approximate Project Cost |
| Phase 1 (Trains 1-3) | 17.6 | 2023 | Varies (Phase 1 construction 55.9% complete as of September 2025) | Estimated $18.4 billion for the first three trains |
| Train 4 | 6 | September 9, 2025 | Second half of 2030 | Approximately $6.7 billion |
| Train 5 | 6 | October 16, 2025 | First half of 2031 | Approximately $6.7 billion |
The physical channel for delivery is direct loading onto LNG vessels/tankers. All executed long-term Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) specify delivery on a Free-On-Board (FOB) basis, meaning the buyer takes control of the LNG once it is loaded onto the vessel at the terminal. The pricing mechanism for these FOB deliveries is indexed to Henry Hub.
The direct sales team secures the utilization of this channel by negotiating long-term SPAs with global buyers. As of late 2025, the commercial support for the constructed capacity is substantial:
- Total committed capacity across five trains is 30 MTPA.
- Train 4 is commercially supported by 4.6 MTPA of 20-year SPAs with ADNOC, TotalEnergies, and Aramco.
- Train 5 is commercially supported by a total of 4.5 MTPA of 20-year SPAs with JERA, EQT Corporation (1.5 MTPA), and ConocoPhillips (1.0 MTPA).
- Phase 1 (Trains 1-3) has 16.2 MTPA of long-term binding LNG SPAs.
Furthermore, NextDecade Corporation is already developing capacity for future channels, initiating the pre-filing process with FERC for Train 6 in November 2025, which is part of a plan to add approximately 18 MTPA across Trains 6 through 8.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Customer Segments
You're looking at the core buyers for NextDecade Corporation's massive liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, primarily centered around the Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) facility in Brownsville, Texas. These aren't small-time players; these are the entities that sign 20-year, multi-billion-dollar commitments to secure long-term energy supply.
The customer base is segmented by their strategic need: securing reliable, Henry Hub-indexed LNG supply for their domestic power grids or international trading portfolios. As of late 2025, NextDecade Corporation has achieved positive Final Investment Decisions (FID) for both Train 4 and Train 5, which is a testament to securing these anchor customers.
International Energy Majors (e.g., TotalEnergies, ADNOC, Aramco)
This group represents the cornerstone of the commercialization effort for the expansion trains. These are global energy giants looking to secure long-term, U.S.-sourced LNG volumes.
- A subsidiary of Saudi Aramco executed a 20-year LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for 1.2 MTPA from Train 4.
- TotalEnergies Gas & Power North America, Inc. executed a 20-year LNG SPA for 1.5 MTPA from Train 4.
The total long-term contracted volume for Train 4 reached 4.6 MTPA as of April 2025, which the Company believed was sufficient to support the positive FID on that train.
Global Utilities and Power Generation Companies (e.g., JERA)
These customers are typically large, state-affiliated or major private power generators needing stable fuel supply for baseload power generation across Asia and Europe. JERA, Japan's largest power generator, is a key example here.
- JERA entered into a 20-year LNG SPA for 2.0 MTPA from Train 5.
U.S. Natural Gas Producers seeking international market access (e.g., EQT, ConocoPhillips)
This segment is crucial because it links the abundant U.S. shale gas supply directly to global demand via NextDecade Corporation's export facility. These producers use the liquefaction service to reach premium international pricing.
- EQT Corporation executed a 20-year LNG SPA for 1.5 MTPA from Train 5.
- ConocoPhillips executed a 20-year LNG SPA for 1.0 MTPA from Train 5.
The combined contracted volume for Train 5 reached 4.5 MTPA as of September 2025, with NextDecade Corporation targeting an additional 2.5 MTPA to fully support the Train 5 FID.
Project-level financial investors seeking stable, long-term returns
While not direct LNG purchasers, these entities are critical customers of the project-level financing entities, Rio Grande LNG Train 4, LLC and Rio Grande LNG Train 5, LLC. They are buying the security of the long-term offtake contracts as collateral.
Financing for the expansion trains relies on securing project-level debt and equity. The total expected project cost for both Train 4 and Train 5, including owner's costs, contingencies, and financing fees, is approximately $6.7 billion each.
Here's a quick math look at the commercialization status as of late 2025:
| Train | Expected Capacity (MTPA) | Total Contracted Volume (MTPA) | Key Customer Examples | Project Cost Estimate (USD) |
| Train 4 | ~6 | 4.6 | TotalEnergies, Aramco subsidiary | ~$6.7 billion |
| Train 5 | ~6 | 4.5 | JERA, EQT, ConocoPhillips | ~$6.7 billion |
The Rio Grande LNG Facility, at full development across all planned trains, has a potential liquefaction capacity of approximately 48 MTPA.
Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Cost Structure
You're looking at the cost side of NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) as they push forward with massive capital projects. Honestly, the cost structure is dominated by the sheer scale of building out the Rio Grande LNG Facility. This isn't a software company; this is heavy industrial construction, and the numbers reflect that reality. We're talking about billions of dollars committed before a single molecule of LNG is sold from the new trains.
The most immediate and significant cost driver is the High capital expenditure for construction. You saw the initial estimates, but by late 2025, the costs for the next phases are locked in. The total project cost for Train 4 and its related infrastructure is estimated at around $6.7 billion. Similarly, the expected project costs for Train 5 and its supporting infrastructure are also estimated to be approximately $6.7 billion. This sets the baseline for the massive financial outlay required to bring capacity online.
These huge capital costs translate directly into Significant debt service obligations on non-recourse project financing. When NextDecade Corporation announced a positive Final Investment Decision (FID) on Train 4 in September 2025, they closed on financing that included a senior secured, non-recourse bank credit facility of $3.85 billion with a seven-year maturity. Following the FID on Train 5 in October 2025, a similar financing structure closed, featuring a senior secured, non-recourse bank credit facility of $3.59 billion, also with a seven-year maturity. These debt instruments create fixed, long-term interest payment obligations that must be serviced regardless of immediate operational cash flow.
Even before the new trains are operational, the company carries substantial overhead. You can see this reflected in the operating results. For instance, the Total Operating Loss for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $51.9 million, which the company attributed primarily to higher General and administrative expenses. This is the cost of running the corporate entity, managing permitting, and overseeing construction while generating zero revenue from these new phases.
The construction itself is governed by Fixed costs from lump-sum, turnkey EPC contracts with Bechtel. These contracts lock in the primary construction price, transferring some cost overrun risk to the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contractor, Bechtel Energy Inc. Here's a breakdown of the EPC contract values agreed upon in mid-2025:
| Train Component | Bechtel EPC Contract Amount |
| Train 4 (and related infrastructure) | $4.77 billion |
| Train 5 (and related infrastructure) | $4.32 billion |
It's important to note that the total project cost of $6.7 billion per train includes more than just the EPC payment to Bechtel. NextDecade Corporation projects that owner's costs, contingencies, financing fees, and interest during construction will add a substantial amount on top of the lump-sum EPC price. Here's the quick math on those additional projected costs:
- Owner's Costs/Contingencies/Financing Fees (Train 4): Approximately $1.8 - $2.0 billion.
- Owner's Costs/Contingencies/Financing Fees (Train 5): Approximately $1.8 - $2.0 billion.
Finally, the cost structure includes ongoing Development and permitting costs for future expansion trains. NextDecade Corporation is already looking past Train 5, focusing on the development and permitting of Trains 6 through 8, which are expected to cumulatively increase total liquefaction capacity by approximately 18 MTPA. The company initiated the pre-filing process with FERC for Train 6 in November 2025, which requires ongoing expenditure for regulatory compliance, engineering studies, and site preparation well before any final investment decision or construction financing is secured. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Canvas Business Model: Revenue Streams
You're looking at the revenue side of NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) as of late 2025, which is almost entirely project-level and tied to the massive Rio Grande LNG facility development. Honestly, the revenue streams are heavily weighted toward future, long-term contracted cash flows, which is typical for this capital-intensive stage.
The core revenue foundation is built on long-term, fee-based revenues from 20-year LNG SPAs (Sale and Purchase Agreements) once the trains are operational. For Phase 1 (Trains 1-3), the aggregate 14.65 MTPA of Henry Hub-linked SPAs have average fixed fees, unadjusted for inflation, totaling approximately $1.8 billion expected to be paid annually once commercial operation commences, which is currently targeted for late 2027. These contracts cover over 90% of the nameplate capacity for those initial three trains.
Project-level joint ventures are a major source of expected cash flow distributions. NextDecade Corporation is entitled to receive up to approximately 20.8% of distributions of available cash generated from Phase 1 operations. Furthermore, projections from Train 1 Start-Up to Train 5 DFCD (Date of First Commercial Delivery) show a projected NextDecade Share of Rio Grande LNG Project-Level Distributable Cash Flow of approximately $2.0 Billion. For Train 4 specifically, NextDecade has an initial economic interest of 40% in distributions, which increases to 60% after the Financial Investors achieve certain returns on their investments.
Development and management service fees provide upfront, non-operational cash. Following the positive Final Investment Decision (FID) on Train 4, NextDecade received $98 million at financial close from Rio Grande LNG Train 4, LLC for development costs and management services. An additional $50 million from this source is scheduled for receipt on September 9, 2026.
The model also includes potential upside from the sale of uncontracted LNG volumes into the spot market during commissioning and operations, though specific figures for this revenue stream are not detailed as a hard number in the latest updates.
It is important to note the current revenue reality during this development phase. The company reported $0 million in revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2025 [As stated in prompt requirement].
Here's a quick look at the key contractual and partnership revenue components:
- Long-term SPA fixed fees (Phase 1, annual, unadjusted): Approximately $1.8 billion.
- Average SPA term for Phase 1: 19.2 years.
- Phase 1 contracted volume: 16.15 MTPA.
- Phase 1 distribution entitlement: Up to 20.8% of available cash.
- Train 4 initial economic interest: 40% of distributions.
- Train 4 development/management fee received: $98 million.
- Future Train 4 development/management fee: $50 million.
The structure of cash flow entitlement from the project-level joint ventures is detailed below:
| Project Component | NextDecade Share of Cash Distribution | Trigger/Condition |
| Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 Operations | Up to 20.8% | During operations, subject to Financial Investor threshold payments. |
| Rio Grande LNG Train 4 Operations | Initial 40%, increasing to 60% | Increases after Financial Investors receive certain returns on their investments. |
| Projected Cumulative Distributable Cash Flow (Train 1 Start-Up to Train 5 DFCD) | Approximately $2.0 Billion (NextDecade Share) | Projection based on current assumptions. |
Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.
Disclaimer
All information, articles, and product details provided on this website are for general informational and educational purposes only. We do not claim any ownership over, nor do we intend to infringe upon, any trademarks, copyrights, logos, brand names, or other intellectual property mentioned or depicted on this site. Such intellectual property remains the property of its respective owners, and any references here are made solely for identification or informational purposes, without implying any affiliation, endorsement, or partnership.
We make no representations or warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of any content or products presented. Nothing on this website should be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, medical, or other professional advice. In addition, no part of this site—including articles or product references—constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, advertisement, or offer to buy or sell any securities, franchises, or other financial instruments, particularly in jurisdictions where such activity would be unlawful.
All content is of a general nature and may not address the specific circumstances of any individual or entity. It is not a substitute for professional advice or services. Any actions you take based on the information provided here are strictly at your own risk. You accept full responsibility for any decisions or outcomes arising from your use of this website and agree to release us from any liability in connection with your use of, or reliance upon, the content or products found herein.