VEON LTD. (VEON): 5 forças Análise [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

No mundo dinâmico das telecomunicações globais, a VEON LTD. navega em um cenário complexo de forças competitivas que moldam suas decisões estratégicas e posicionamento de mercado. Desde os terrenos desafiadores dos mercados emergentes até as incansáveis ​​interrupções tecnológicas, a empresa enfrenta um ambiente multifacetado, onde a energia do fornecedor, a dinâmica do cliente, a intensidade competitiva, as ameaças substitutas e os novos participantes em potencial remodelam continuamente o ecossistema de telecomunicações. Essa análise das cinco forças de Porter revela os intrincados desafios e oportunidades que definem a estratégia competitiva da VEON em 2024, oferecendo informações sobre como a empresa mantém sua resiliência em um mercado digital cada vez mais interconectado e em rápida evolução.

VEON LTD. (VEON) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos fornecedores

Número limitado de fabricantes de equipamentos de telecomunicações

A partir de 2024, o mercado global de equipamentos de telecomunicações é dominado por três fabricantes primários:

Alta dependência de provedores de infraestrutura de rede

A dependência da infraestrutura de rede da VEON é caracterizada por:

• 99,7% de confiança em fabricantes de equipamentos de telecomunicações externos
• Investimento médio de infraestrutura de rede de US $ 1,2 bilhão anualmente
• Dependência crítica dos provedores de tecnologia 5G e 4G

Investimentos de capital em infraestrutura de telecomunicações

Restrições da cadeia de suprimentos em mercados emergentes

Desafios emergentes da cadeia de suprimentos de mercado:

• Rússia: 42% das interrupções da cadeia de suprimentos
• Paquistão: 31% de restrições de importação de equipamentos
• Bangladesh: 27% de atrasos alfandegários

VEON LTD. (VEON) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos clientes

Alta sensibilidade ao preço do assinante móvel em mercados emergentes

Em 2023, os principais mercados da VEON demonstraram sensibilidade significativa ao preço:

Baixos custos de comutação entre fornecedores de telecomunicações

A análise de custos de troca para os mercados da VEON:

• Disponibilidade de portabilidade do número: 4 em cada 5 mercados
• Tempo médio para trocar de provedor: 2-3 dias
• Não há taxas significativas de rescisão de contrato
• Barreiras técnicas mínimas para trocar

Crescente demanda por planos de dados acessíveis

Crescendo expectativas do cliente para serviços digitais

Taxas de adoção de serviços digitais nos mercados VEON:

• Uso bancário móvel: 38%
• Assinaturas de entretenimento digital: 25%
• Transações de pagamento móvel: 42%
• Demand de conectividade da IoT: 18%

VEON LTD. (VEON) - As cinco forças de Porter: rivalidade competitiva

Cenário de concorrência de mercado

A VEON opera em mercados de telecomunicações altamente competitivos em vários países:

Estratégias competitivas

A VEON enfrenta intensa concorrência baseada em preços com as seguintes métricas de investimento:

• Investimento de infraestrutura de rede: US $ 672 milhões em 2023
• Desenvolvimento de serviços digitais: US $ 218 milhões em 2023
• Despesas anuais de marketing: US $ 412 milhões

Posicionamento competitivo

Métricas de paisagem competitiva para VEON:

VEON LTD. (VEON) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de substitutos

Crescente popularidade das plataformas de comunicação exageradas

O Whatsapp reportou 2 bilhões de usuários ativos mensais a partir de 2023. O Telegram atingiu 800 milhões de usuários ativos mensais em 2024. O Skype registrou 300 milhões de usuários ativos mensais no mesmo período.

Aumentando a adoção de aplicativos de comunicação baseados na Internet

O uso global de aplicativos de mensagens móveis atingiu 3,5 bilhões de usuários em 2024. Os aplicativos de comunicação baseados na Internet demonstraram um crescimento de 15,7% ano a ano.

• Signal relatou 40 milhões de usuários ativos mensais
• Discord alcançou 150 milhões de usuários ativos mensais
• Viber gravou 1,1 bilhão de usuários registrados

Impacto potencial de 5G e tecnologias de conectividade alternativa

A cobertura global 5G atingiu 35% em 2024. As conexões globais 5G excederam 2,2 bilhões no final de 2023.

Preferência crescente por serviços de comunicação baseados na Internet

Os serviços de comunicação baseados na Internet capturaram 68% de participação de mercado no segmento de comunicação de telecomunicações em 2024. Os gastos mensais médios em plataformas de comunicação digital diminuíram para US $ 4,50 por usuário.

• A adoção da tecnologia WebRTC aumentou 22%
• O mercado global de VoIP se projetou para atingir US $ 194,8 bilhões até 2024
• Os usuários de VoIP móvel que esperam atingir 3 bilhões até 2025

VEON LTD. (VEON) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de novos participantes

Altos requisitos de capital para infraestrutura de telecomunicações

O investimento em infraestrutura de telecomunicações da VEON em 2023 totalizou US $ 2,3 bilhões. Os custos de implantação de infraestrutura de rede variam entre US $ 500 milhões e US $ 1,2 bilhão por país. A instalação da rede de fibra óptica é de US $ 15.000 a US $ 25.000 por quilômetro.

Barreiras regulatórias em vários mercados internacionais

A VEON opera em 8 países com ambientes regulatórios complexos. As taxas de licenciamento de telecomunicações variam de US $ 50 milhões a US $ 250 milhões por mercado.

• Custos de conformidade regulatória da Rússia: US $ 75 milhões anualmente
• Licenciamento do espectro do Paquistão: US $ 210 milhões
• Regulamentos de telecomunicações do governo do Cazaquistão: US $ 45 milhões

Processos complexos de licenciamento em economias emergentes

Processo de licenciamento de telecomunicações médias Duração: 18-36 meses. Custos de solicitação de licenciamento: US $ 5 milhões - US $ 15 milhões por aplicativo.

Investimentos tecnológicos significativos necessários para a entrada de mercado

O investimento tecnológico da VEON em 2023: US $ 780 milhões. Despesas anuais de pesquisa e desenvolvimento: US $ 350 milhões.

• Investimento em tecnologia 5G: US $ 450 milhões
• Infraestrutura de segurança cibernética: US $ 120 milhões
• Integração de computação em nuvem: US $ 210 milhões

VEON Ltd. (VEON) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at the competitive arena for VEON Ltd. (VEON) in late 2025, and the rivalry is definitely intense, especially in the core territories. Competition isn't just about who has the cheapest voice minute anymore; it's a fight for the digital wallet share, which is a much tougher battle to win.

Rivalry is high in established markets like Pakistan, where Jazz competes fiercely, and in Ukraine, where Kyivstar faces a difficult operational environment but remains a major player. To be fair, the operational backdrop in Ukraine adds a layer of complexity that competitors in less volatile regions don't face. Still, VEON Ltd. is a significant force across its footprint.

VEON Ltd. holds a strong standing, operating in five key geographical segments: Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, and Uzbekistan. As of September 30, 2025, the Group reported 149.5 million mobile subscribers, showing a 3.1% year-over-year decline. In Kazakhstan, Beeline is pushing differentiation hard, launching its AI-based Tutor powered by KazLLM in June 2025 and rolling out VEON AdTech capabilities across its SuperApp, BeeTV, and IZI products in the first quarter.

The nature of this rivalry is clearly pivoting away from traditional price wars toward digital service differentiation. This is where VEON is putting its chips down, focusing on fintech, entertainment, and other digital offerings. The numbers show this shift is gaining traction:

• Direct digital revenue growth in 3Q25 was 63.1% year-over-year in USD terms.
• Digital revenues accounted for 17.8% of Group revenue in 3Q25.
• Multiplay customers, those using at least one digital platform, grew 23.3% year-over-year to 43.5 million as of September 30, 2025.
• Multiplay revenues made up 55.4% of VEON's consumer revenues in 3Q25.

This focus on digital is crucial because multiplay users deliver 3.8x higher ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) and show 50% lower churn rates compared to voice-only users. Here's a quick look at how the revenue streams compared in the third quarter of 2025, showing the growing importance of the digital segment:

Despite the intense competition and the operational challenges in some regions, the market remains one where growth is possible, provided you execute the digital strategy well. VEON continues to expect local-currency revenue growth for the full year 2025 to be in the range of 13% to 15% year-on-year.

VEON Ltd. (VEON) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're looking at how external offerings could replace the core services VEON Ltd. (VEON) provides, and honestly, the threat is multifaceted, coming from digital messaging, satellite connectivity, and specialized financial technology.

The most immediate pressure comes from Over-The-Top (OTT) services. Think about it: services like WhatsApp and Zoom directly substitute the traditional voice and SMS revenue that used to be the bread and butter for telecom operators. People are choosing data-based communication over traditional minutes and texts. To counter this, VEON Ltd. is pushing hard on its digital pivot. For the third quarter of 2025, direct digital revenues showed serious momentum, growing 63.1% year-over-year to reach USD 198 million. This growth is key; it means digital services now account for 17.8% of the Group's total revenue, up from 12% in the same period last year. That's a clear sign they are actively working to mitigate the substitution risk by capturing the digital spend.

Here's a quick look at that digital acceleration:

Next up, we have a long-term, infrastructure-level substitute: Direct-to-Cell satellite services. VEON Ltd. signed a non-exclusive global framework agreement with Starlink, making them the first operator with such a multi-country deal. This technology allows ordinary smartphones to connect directly to satellites, potentially bypassing terrestrial network coverage entirely in remote areas. The deal grants access to over 150 million potential customers across VEON's markets. The rollout plan is aggressive, too. Kyivstar in Ukraine is set to launch service in the fourth quarter of 2025, and Beeline in Kazakhstan is targeting messaging in 2026, followed by data. Still, the partnership is non-exclusive, so VEON is keeping options open, discussing future plans with Amazon's Project Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, and Eutelsat OneWeb for 2027 and 2028.

Finally, don't forget the financial services battleground where VEON's JazzCash operates. While JazzCash is a major player, boasting 48 million customers and being the largest digital lender in Pakistan with an average of 140,000 digital loans disbursed daily via ReadyCash, the local fintech scene is vibrant and competitive. There are roughly 450 FinTech startups in Pakistan. You have established competitors like Easypaisa and rapidly growing, well-funded entities like Finja. These local startups are plugging gaps in lending, payments, and digital wallets, directly competing for the same digital wallet share and financial services revenue that VEON Ltd. is trying to grow.

The substitution risks manifest in several ways:

• OTT apps eroding traditional voice and SMS revenue streams.
• Direct-to-Cell satellite tech threatening coverage monopolies in rural areas.
• Fintech startups challenging JazzCash's market share in digital finance.

VEON Ltd. (VEON) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

The threat of new entrants for VEON Ltd. is moderated by significant structural barriers, though the company's strategic shift towards an asset-light model introduces new dynamics for digital-only competitors.

High capital expenditure remains a substantial deterrent for any company looking to build a competing mobile network infrastructure from scratch. You see this clearly in VEON Ltd.'s own investment plans. For the full year 2025, VEON expects its capex intensity (capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue, excluding Ukraine) to remain within the tight range of 17% to 19%. To put that into perspective based on recent performance, the Last Twelve Months (LTM) capex intensity as of the third quarter of 2025, excluding Ukraine, was reported at 17.7%. This level of sustained, heavy investment in network modernization and digital infrastructure sets a high financial hurdle.

Regulatory barriers are particularly complex and lengthy in the frontier markets where VEON Ltd. operates. While specific details on spectrum licensing timelines across all six operating countries are proprietary, the general environment suggests high friction. For instance, in Kenya, a market peer context, reports as of November 2025 highlight that stringent non-tariff measures, such as licensing hurdles and standards compliance delays, add layers of uncertainty and cost for investors. Furthermore, the broader industry faces challenges in spectrum allocation, which can delay new deployments and increase operational costs, as satellites rely on limited frequency bands.

VEON Ltd.'s ongoing execution of its asset-light strategy directly impacts the infrastructure barrier. The company completed the sale of its 49% stake in the Kazakh wholesale telecommunications infrastructure provider TNS+ for a total consideration of USD 137.5 million. This divestment allows Beeline Kazakhstan to focus on digital services-like Simply, Izi, and BeeTV-while securing access to the necessary physical network through long-term commercial contracts. This model lowers the barrier for new digital competitors who can potentially partner for access rather than build from scratch. However, for a new company attempting to launch as a full network operator, the need to acquire spectrum, secure rights of way, and deploy physical assets remains a massive, capital-intensive undertaking that the asset-light strategy does not eliminate for them.

The sheer scale of VEON Ltd.'s customer base acts as a powerful network effect barrier. As of late 2025, VEON provides converged connectivity and digital services to nearly 160 million customers across its operating regions. This massive installed base translates into higher switching costs for customers who are integrated into VEON's ecosystem, especially those utilizing its growing suite of digital services. For example, multiplay customers-those using at least one digital platform alongside 4G-show 50% lower churn rates compared to voice-only users.

The network effect barrier is reinforced by customer engagement metrics:

• Multiplay customers increased by 24.1% year-over-year as of June 30, 2025, reaching 43.3 million.
• Multiplay customers represent 32.9% of the total user base as of June 30, 2025.
• Multiplay customer ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is 3.7x higher than voice-only users.

Finance: review the impact of the TNS+ sale proceeds on 2026 capex plans by next Tuesday.